sick of 'gurus': new trader asking advice from normal traders?

[Mike Kshemaraja]

Will come back in some months :clap: with improved English


Good sailing, folks!

In this forum, if you do not conform to the overall mentality you will be quickly branded as a foreigner and as a fascist if you are lucky. LOL.

Why is that? Not sure, probably they cannot see further than their nose.

They know it all, and that is why there will never make it as traders. Most of them drink warm beer and eat fish and chips and live on the dole.

They use sarcasm as a defend mechanism, they are mean in their stupidity.

Are they all like that? NO, but many are. (I know some good one, and I am always looking forward in reading their posts).

Keep it up mate, I find your post very interesting and I am looking forward for some more.

 

[Mike Kshemaraja]

My weed days are long behind me. Partly because I'm 41 and partly because I'd get my ass kicked out of the country for doing it here.

More the latter than the former... :whistling

Yes, more appropriate for the young people in my view, which I am not anymore, but I had my good share. LOL:

JOVENES NATASHA YAROVENKO - YouTube

 

[wekim]

You mean you don't understand a clue when you see a DOM. That's all right. No problems in that, but don't say "they are idiots".

There are lots of psy studies about an overestimation of our own competence in doing some tasks, the perceived competence and the real one.

The highly competent people are usually overestimate the results of the other folks, even if the results are modest and tend to underestimate they own results, because of the high understanding of the matter. The general tendency is: they are very critic about they own competences/results and they always find optimistic results in the beginners work.

People with no or very basic understanding of the question tend to hugely overestimate they own results and largely underestimate someone's performance, no matter if those people are much more experienced than themselves. They always find they own results are simply superb and never see the performance of the competent people or try to lower the perception of they experience. You can find those studies in nearly all the domains.

All that to say, if you did not manage to try to understand what happens on the DOM (or anything else), do not just say "they are idiots". It just shows your basic ignorance. No offence.

Great post. I've never heard of those studies but makes perfect sense and is a great observation not only for this thread but for the majority of trading forums. Probably applies to almost everyone who was talking sh!t to you in this thread.

 

[Paulds11]

You sound like one of these rip off gurus. Since you are not overly profitable, if you say more it will make not much difference. My bets are for learning, for fun, for trading, and for gambling all mixed in. I think my results will improve once I cut down on the gambling. For now I have a reflex for gambling that isn't under control. It will once I am tired of the slow profit growth.

Well.. that was a waste of my time.. and your response is indicative of the position youre in in the market. Good luck.. but I kid you not. With that poor focus on what was actually GOLD given to you, you still managed to focus on the negative instead of the incredible information provided you. God help you... but I guarantee you will not succeed at this game with that attitude and lack of focus combined with an astonishingly poor ability to filter through the information and extract value from it. Simply appalling and not in keeping with the spirit of T2W at all. I will leave the information up to assist others. Do you always behave this way toward people who openly give you thier time to assist you?

 

[wekim]

lol Paul why even bother helping the losers get better?

 

[Paulds11]

lol Paul why even bother helping the losers get better?

lol Mike,
that is why I will charge from now on!

 

[SPimini]

lol at this thread. Only reason i signed up here because you can't view any threads after certain time. You just need to weed out the **** talker and bs stuff, to find the right information that exist in this forum.

 

[Joules MM1]

Will come back in some months

hope you do.......look forward to that

other stuff in the mail

 

[Mike Kshemaraja]

lol at this thread. Only reason i signed up here because you can't view any threads after certain time. You just need to weed out the **** talker and bs stuff, to find the right information that exist in this forum.

Well, now you are eating the real honey my friend. Welcome.

 

[TheBramble]

does anyone actually bring in decent profits on a regular basis or are the good times always wiped out by the bad in the long run?

For most, this is the case.

does the hard work pay off in the end or is trading the equivalent to chasing the golden pot at the end of the rainbow?

Two aspects for this. First, very few do work hard. They slap a couple on indicators on the chart, treat whatever asset they’re trading as independent of everything else going on in the world and trawl websites (like this) for ‘answers’. That’s not hard work.

Hard work is thinking, sifting, mind-breakingly boring waiting (patience) and screen work - countless hours, days , months and years of it. Getting stuffed and coming back and not getting stuffed that way ever again. Plenty of new ways to get stuffed to discover. It also requires intelligence, diligence, a good memory and the ability to connect the dots (especially those dots that few others have managed to connect), maintaining an active and encyclopaedic awareness of the macrocosm within which your tiny chosen microcosm of interest lays and above all, having a Passion for what you’re doing – not simply for making money.

Second, even those with an ethic of hard work and with all of the above won’t necessarily succeed if they don’t preserve their capital during the training years and the lean periods where impatience makes fools of us all and maintain an ability to always fight another day. You also need luck. While a .67 win rate system shouldn’t throw you 30 losers in a row, it can.

'gurus' need not respond.

Sorry, saw this too late….

 

[Johnnyalpha8]

I would just say to backtest, backtest and backtest.

#1 See for yourself whether your system can be profitable minus commissions and slippage.

#2 See for yourself that your account can withstand any losses the market throws at you by considering the maximum draw-down before you fund your account.

#3 See for yourself that the results of your system are not down to chance by looking at the size of the longest winning streak.

#4 See for yourself that you can trade accurately making few mistakes, by performing that backtest 'manually'. True backtesting takes time.

As they say, a trader who does not backtest is like an athlete who does not go to the gym.

 

[TheBramble]

Back-testing has a strong tendency for many to lead to curve fitting and data mining. While there is a basis for suggesting back-testing as a kick-off point for the ‘joining the dots’ I referred to above, it has to be complemented with sufficient forward-testing too. That’s where the countless hours, days, months…etc. come in.

You say ‘true back-testing takes time’. Well, yes it probably should, but that should pale into insignificance in relation to the amount of forward testing. Markets change – all the time. Far more emphasis should be placed on what’s happening these days than last year and on today than yesterday.

 

[Sidekicker]

By the way, DionysusToast, actually I'm doing the webinar with John Grady, absolutely super, opened my eyes on the DOM and presented Jigsaw plug inn, really good stuff, a must have in the ES. Will probably get it later.

is that the No BS Trading guy?
Personally, whoever said volume was the only way to trade on here is not correct.
Yes, it's a good way of trading and probably better suited to scalpers but it's not the only thing that matters. You can trade off market sentiment, support, res, patterns it just depends more on your temperament for trading and self control than anything else.

 

[forker]

I trade fx spot - there is no central exchange, and therefore no easily accessible vol data.

Some traders do use fx futures vol data as an indicator when trading spot - but many don't. Some SB firms / chart providers also provide vol data but its not complete.

To add to prev post - I have met a lot of traders trading commodity, FI, equity index futures who do not use vol data, and I have met some who do.

Therein lies your problem. Spot fx isn't your typical market. It is filled with randomness between what you could call order. The randomness is comprised of business activity as well as people going about their every day lives. The reason the majority of traders in this market get hammered if because 1) they don't understand the its dynamics 2) they try apply strategies that may or may not work in other markets in spot fx 3) they participate in trading far to often.

So here are some skills that are required to make money in fx.
1) follow other marets. When they are good the money flows accordingly, same if they are bad.
2) understand economic and political influence.
3) keep an eye on central banks.
4) learn when to trade and when not to trade based on all of the above.
5) you don't need advanced technical strategies, support and resistance alone works well. Study it on the 4 hour and daily charts and spot the indications of how to trade them.
6) start small, it takes ages to bring everything together such that you can be proficient.
7) manage your risk, if you wrong you don't want to be there for long. This goes hand in hand with 6
8) patience.. don't beat yourself up ,learn from your bad outcomes and fight another day.
9) dont go tweaking everything after a loss

 

[Mike Kshemaraja]

I would just say to backtest, backtest and backtest.

#1 See for yourself whether your system can be profitable minus commissions and slippage.

#2 See for yourself that your account can withstand any losses the market throws at you by considering the maximum draw-down before you fund your account.

#3 See for yourself that the results of your system are not down to chance by looking at the size of the longest winning streak.

#4 See for yourself that you can trade accurately making few mistakes, by performing that backtest 'manually'. True backtesting takes time.

As they say, a trader who does not backtest is like an athlete who does not go to the gym.

Yes, I think manual backtesting (one bar at the time, hiding the right part of the chart, if it is what you mean) is very important.

But I would like to point out that our decision making when we backtest is very different from when we trade in the actual live moment.

In the live moment mr Ego comes to play, bringing in emotions like fear, greed, luck of patience, revenge and so on which obstruct the optimal goal.

Skills are very important in trading and specially the one that helps you to master yourself to trade with that fluidity with the absence of unhelpful emotions.

That it is why I am very much convinced that great traders are not born but they create themselves recognising their weakness and working on them.

 

[Mike Kshemaraja]

having a Passion for what you’re doing – not simply for making money.

Nice.

 

[Johnnyalpha8]

Back-testing has a strong tendency for many to lead to curve fitting and data mining. While there is a basis for suggesting back-testing as a kick-off point for the ‘joining the dots’ I referred to above, it has to be complemented with sufficient forward-testing too. That’s where the countless hours, days, months…etc. come in.

You say ‘true back-testing takes time’. Well, yes it probably should, but that should pale into insignificance in relation to the amount of forward testing. Markets change – all the time. Far more emphasis should be placed on what’s happening these days than last year and on today than yesterday.

I'd say that forward testing is only necessary if you have optimised your key idea after the initial backtest.

 

[TheBramble]

I'd say that forward testing is only necessary if you have optimised your key idea after the initial backtest.

Good luck with that then.

Tell me though, how precisely do you NOT forward test? Take a trade based on your backtest model and then close your eyes and hope it runs as it 'should'?

What happens when the levels and patterns and formations you've decided constitute a setup start failing to perform as they ‘should’?

It’s ALL forward testing. Testing is a misnomer in this context as you’re using live capital, but the constant awareness of performance and the mind-set of analysing what is going on is always ON.

 

[Joules MM1]

I'd say that forward testing is only necessary if you have optimised your key idea after the initial backtest.

you'd say ?

as in, you dont know?

 

[Balthazar]

I've never heard of those studies but makes perfect sense and is a great observation not only for this thread but for the majority of trading forums. Probably applies to almost everyone who was talking sh!t to you in this thread.

Thanks mate for your comment ))))) Really appreciate that. :cheesy:

The biais is called Dunning-Kruger effect, a Nobel Price 2000 in the cognitive comportment research and the full name of the research is "Unskilled and Unaware of It: How Difficulties in Recognizing One's Own Incompetence Lead to Inflated Self-Assessments".

A good compact version

And some more about illusory superiority effect:

Dunning-Kruger effect

Illusory superiority

I found those studies very helpful when hou have to assess your own competences. After reading Dunning-Kruger I guess I have much less illusions about my own results, and this is a huge jump in the perception of what I miss and what I do well.

Anyway, I found lots of good guys here, really aware of they trading skills and tolearnt to the beginners mistakes. That's great :clap: Nice to meet all of them!
I will come back in few months time and hope I will show some good scalping, meanwile, I don't want to flood the forum with just an empty chat. My life is away.

Hope I did not hurt anyone, if not, really sorry, guys.

PS Last thought about DOM: you never see any charts on the trader's monitors on news (or may be some basic ones, just to watch the price levels), on Bloombergs, CNBC, NASDAQ an so. For exepmle the Shneider trading, or they training for traders...You see DOMs, DOMs, DOMs...

Here some traders at Dubai on X_Trader, DOM always...http://www.ameinfo.com/164393.html

And even better, from this same T2W forum about trading arcades (all of the folks are on X_Trader's DOM)

Best regards