Seeking consistency

[Leia]

Re: AUD CAD daily confluence

watching for price to enter the yellow box and price action on 4 hourly & or daily time-frame indicating strong rejection of lower prices, providing an entry trigger back into uptrend to recent highs at 1.07 80
all time highs of 1 10 40 (Nov 96)

4 hourly inside bar
entry 1.06 35; stop 1.05 90 (risk= -45) target 1.07 80 (reward = 145) R = 3
cancel order / move stop to break even if price hits R = 1 @ 1. 06 80

 

[Leia]

aud usd long

daily chart is long
price has retraced to last weeks low
price candles on 4 hour time-frame indicating rejection of lower levels, possible support of daily 20ema, ascending trend-line and previous swing low

order placed to enter long @ 1.06 55; stop 1. 06 05 (risk = - 50) target recent highs @ 1.08 05 (reward = 200 pips) R = 4

This order is not prefect because the four hourly trend is definitely down, conflicting with the potential daily set up. If price moves to 1.07 10, I will remove the order / move my stop to breakeven (which ever happens first)

 

[Leia]

Re: aud usd long

order placed to enter long @ 1.06 55; stop 1. 06 05 (risk = - 50) target recent highs @ 1.08 05 (reward = 200 pips) R = 4)

Order opened and Stop hit for -55 pips

 

[Leia]

eur gbp couter trend short

Small risk (-15 pips) counter trend (daily and 4hourly trends are long) entry at previous Daily Support / Resistance level offered on last 1 hour candle
target is 0.84 00 (top of recent daily range - now potential support, but if this breaks we could see 0.82 60 (bottom of recent daily range)

Order to enter short 0.84 75, stop 0.84 90 (-15 pips) target .84 00 (+75 pips) R=5
long term target 0.82 60 (+215 pips)

If order is opened, stop quickly to break even if 0.84 60 is seen, because this is high risk (counter trend), but very small stop if order opened and trend counties upward

 

[Leia]

GBP USD 1H trigger

convincing long tailed hammer shaped candle just closed on 1hour charts (also aud & eur)
daily and 4Hourly trends are long
possible indication that 4H ema acting as dynamic support and that previous daily resistance level may hold as support for a push through recent highs to next target

Order long set @ 1.58 30 with a stop 1.57 90 (-40 pips risk) with a target of 1.61 00 (reward +270 pips) R = over 6

If the order is opened, I will watch price action at recent highs (1.59 30) and move my stop up to try to lock in R = 2, whilst allowing potential break to the upside to run

 

[Leia]

Re: GBP USD 1H trigger

Order long set @ 1.58 30 with a stop 1.57 90 (-40 pips risk)

Order removed - price has moved +100 (1.59 30) without opening order

 

[Leia]

NZD USD 4H trigger + retrace

Daily & 4H trends are long
4H printed a hammer -essque candle early in the week, which price is currently retracing to and may offer a second entry around the daily 20 ema (potential dynamic support{

Order long @ 0.83 50, stop 0.83 20 (risk -30pip) target .85 50 (+200 pips) R= 6

 

[Leia]

Re: NZD USD 4H trigger + retrace

Order long @ 0.83 50, stop 0.83 20 (risk -30pip) target .85 50 (+200 pips) R= 6

The daily and 4hour charts are still long, however the daily chart printed a clear reversal candle yesterday, rejecting the previous supporting 'up' channel (diagonal support becomes resistance) also price has rejected this level and dropped in the past

Never the less, my strategy is to trade with the trend if I see a 'trigger' at a good level. Both the 1 hour and 4 hour charts have just printed trigger long (hammer) candles, so this will be an interesting battle between the trend price action traders and the support / resistance counter trend traders

Will cost me 30pips if I am in the wrong set this time

 

[Leia]

EUR USD 4H trigger long

Similar to NZD USD
both daily and 4H trends are long
daily chart shows potential rejection of higher levels as it is 50% fib level of the Oct - Jan down swing
However, my strategy is to trade with the trend, with price action triggers
The 4H chart has just printed a hammer candle rejecting lower prices almost exactly at the previous daily swing high (previous resistance becoming support)

I have entered an order at 1.33 25 with a stop at 1 .33 00 (-25 pips risk) and a target up at 1. 35 50 (+225 pips reward) R= 9

If the order opens and price gets back to yesterdays highs of 1.34 80 I will look to move my stop up to lock in any profits, as we saw such a strong reaction to this level yesterday

 

[Leia]

Re: NZD USD 4H trigger + retrace

Will cost me 30pips if I am in the wrong set this time

Stop hit -30pips

 

[Leia]

Re: EUR USD 4H trigger long

I have entered an order at 1.33 25 with a stop at 1 .33 00 (-25 pips risk) and a target up at 1. 35 50 (+225 pips reward) R= 9

Stop hit - 25 pips
(price now1.31 80, -145pips !)

 

[Leia]

AUD USD weekly

Will this pair fall to the weekly support offered from the ascending trend line on this time frame (look out at 1.03 80 if we do get there)
It coincides with just over a 61.8% fib re-tracement of the last up swing on the daily time frame
although by then we could see a lower high (to go with lots of lower lows) on the daily time frame and the daily and 4H charts will most likely both be very short (blue slow 50sma above the red fast 20ema, both pointing down, gap between them widening and price trading below them both, so it may be difficult to find a long entry

 

[Leia]

cable about to hit Feb support @ 1.56 50

Very bearish candle to complete the week
obvious support at February lows
Daily time-frame is long, but Fridays close is below 20ema and 50sma on this time-frame
Higher time-frames (Monthly and Weekly) are indicating bearish sentiment
Lower time-frames are also bearish, so the daily is the exception

I would be happy to take a long trade signal at this level, but would want to see a retrace higher to be tempted in short (against the present daily trend)

 

[Leia]

February Summary

I haven't posted my results for February, probably because they are rubbish.
However, can't give up after one month (January was good), so here they are

Post Pair result
339 aud usd -30
342 gold -30
344 aud usd -40
354 aud usd +55
362 aud usd -50
364 eur gbp -15
368 nzd usd -30
total loss -140 (Jan win +195) total 2 months +55pips = +1.7%

7 trades opened, 6 losers & 1 winner, 8 orders didn't open

 

[Leia]

eur gbp couter trend short

daily and 4H trends are long

counter trend shooting star type candle printed on the 4H between 50% and 61.8% fib re-tracement of previous down swing
order placed to go short @ .84 00 (round number), stop just above recent 4H high .84 30 (risk -30) target 2012 low @ .82 20 (+180 reward) R= 6
target 1 (if order opened) last weeks low @ .83 20 (+80 pips, R=2.7)

 

[Leia]

Re: eur gbp couter trend short

target 1 (if order opened) last weeks low @ .83 20 (+80 pips, R=2.7)

price has reached target 1 (.83 20) but my order didn't get opened (by 8 pips!)
so order has been removed

 

[Leia]

nzd cad trend change & triggers

The NZD CAD pair had changed to a down trend on the daily chart (moving average cross over) and now is in line with the 4hourly time frame

Whilst this could be a good counter trend entry area (between the 50 & 61.8% fib levels of the last daily up swing) I shall be watching the 4H and daily time-frame for pull backs and triggers to short (two of which are highlighted on the 4H chart)

 

[Leia]

eur usd daily potential

daily trend is up, 4H is down

daily chart shows support @ 1.31 00, could this now become resistance for a further push lower (to Feb low @ 1.29 80 ?)

watching for rejection of price level around 1.31 00, which is the 50 - 61.8% fib level of the last 4H down swing

 

[Leia]

usd cad 1H trigger candle

Daily and 4H trends are down
1H has just printed a shooting star candle indicating rejection of higher prices, just above the 61.8% fib re-tracement of yesterdays 1H down swing

I have placed an order with a very tight (10 pips) stop at the round .99 00, initially targeting recent lows at 0.98 40 and if momentum looks to break this support level, last Septembers lows around .98 00

Initial order (if seen) @ .99 00, stop at .99 10 (10 pips risk) with target 1 at .98 40 (+40 pips) R = 4. Target 2 = .98 00 (+100 pips) R = 10

 

[Leia]

Re: usd cad 1H trigger candle

Stop hit -10 pips