S&P analysis for Friday 2nd Oct

[VSATrader]

ES Analysis for Monday 26th Nov 07

I will continue with this layout, because it is quicker than the previous, which took 2 hours.
Thursdays sheet, used png's, I have returned to using gifs, so there should be no errors opening this PDF.
Regards Sebastian

 

[grantx]

Sebastian,

Re the intra-day chart, page 1. From around 19:45 there is increasing volume and lower prices. Why do you think this won't continue?

(What screen-capture software did you use?)

Grant.

 

[Grey1]

I will continue with this layout, because it is quicker than the previous, which took 2 hours.
Thursdays sheet, used png's, I have returned to using gifs, so there should be no errors opening this PDF.
Regards Sebastian

Difficult call for tomorrow IMHO,, The most obvious call is a technical bounce but is there any reason for market to respond to technical reasons when to day

1) spending was lower than expected . ( Bull's hope out the window )
2) Warning on CFC by Loan bank ( Bear's Winning Card )


I think even if the market opens in positive the equities cannot be traded to the up side as the move will be very weak and do not justify a trade unless you scalp fast with a large pos size which not many traders are prepared to do that . If there is any credible analysis OVER NIGHT to form a CREDIBLE CATALYST by tomorrow then we all should TEST the credibility of the catalysts at least 30 min into the day before going LONG . All in all NO TRADE EITHER WAY BUT KEEP YOUR EYES ON EUROPE/ASIA and donot miss the CNBC either…


PS:- It would not work JUST TO BE A VOLUME EXPERT NOT IN THIS DAY AND AGE,, How many days last past 3 month we have had CLIMAX SELLING and Euphoria buying next day ? MORE OF A SENTIMENT DRIVEN MARKET THAN TECHNICAL if you ask me

Grey1

 

[dcraig1]

How many days last past 3 month we have had CLIMAX SELLING and Euphoria buying next day ? MORE OF A SENTIMENT DRIVEN MARKET THAN TECHNICAL if you ask me

Grey1

There have been some pretty dramatic illustrations of this in some of the Asian markets of late. The Kospi was up 6% (yes 6% !) yesterday. Down nearly 4% today as I type this.

 

[dbphoenix]

PS:- It would not work JUST TO BE A VOLUME EXPERT NOT IN THIS DAY AND AGE,, How many days last past 3 month we have had CLIMAX SELLING and Euphoria buying next day ? MORE OF A SENTIMENT DRIVEN MARKET THAN TECHNICAL if you ask me

Grey1

To the contrary, a thorough understanding of volume and how it relates to price movement enables one to trade profitably under each of these circumstances and more.

Db

 

[Grey1]

To the contrary, a thorough understanding of volume and how it relates to price movement enables one to trade profitably under each of these circumstances and more.

Db

DB,



Come to a LIVE CHAT ROOM and show me how on a lower time frame let say 60 min your VOLUME ANALYSIS will do ,, If you wish I can open a room on pal talk to day and invite few people to benefit too ,
( I could do with LIVE ANALYSIS and NOT ANY STANDARD TEXT BOOK CHATS on VOLUME I have put this era behind be . )

OVER NIGHT CATALYST for to day ,,,, ABU DHABI is taking a $7.5 Billion Stake in CITI Group., This catalyst is good enough to push the market to upside after a late sell off yesterday but still needs the consumer index data as confirmation which is released later.

All in all with European banks not getting excited by flush of cash into CITI by ABU DUBI stake ( as I am writing this all European down ) there might be a more selling after lunch to day ,,

Yesterday INDU opened 50 points up with UP WARD VOLUME spike on most equities and immediately I sold off into the rally as seen on the trade LOG ( some trades were OVER NIGHT from Friday ) . NO LONG TRADE YESTERDAY despite early Euphoria generated by momentum traders throwing their $$$ into the BIN chasing the market.

 

[dbphoenix]

DB,



Come to a LIVE CHAT ROOM and show me how on a lower time frame let say 60 min your VOLUME ANALYSIS will do ,, If you wish I can open a room on pal talk to day and invite few people to benefit too ,
( I could do with LIVE ANALYSIS and NOT ANY STANDARD TEXT BOOK CHATS on VOLUME I have put this era behind be . )

Been there, done that, have no need to do it again, at least for free. Anyone who requires proof that an understanding of price-volume relationships is worthwhile should probably save himself the time required to develop it. In any case, what with replay and video capture, it is no longer necessary to take time away from one's own trading to provide a relatively pointless one or two-hour demonstration.

But thanks anyway.

Db

 

[Joey]

PS:- It would not work JUST TO BE A VOLUME EXPERT NOT IN THIS DAY AND AGE,, How many days last past 3 month we have had CLIMAX SELLING and Euphoria buying next day ? MORE OF A SENTIMENT DRIVEN MARKET THAN TECHNICAL if you ask me

Grey1

My 2 cents worth:

1. Whatever drives the market, be it fundamentals, technicals, or sentiment, will that not be reflected as activity in the market i.e price movement and volume and in that respect I would have thought that the ability to read and interpret volume provides an extra edge to trading.

2. As for trading live with volume analysis, Malcolm Robinson at http://www.futures-day-trader.com/ does exactly that, no indicators whatsoever, and no news reports, and he demonstrates this in his trading room, obviously it is not going to be a free entry

3. VSA trader also employs his skills on Intraday trading with much success, so did Todd Kruger at Tradeguider and Nick Radge at the Chartist.

 

[the blades]

My 2 cents worth:

1. Whatever drives the market, be it fundamentals, technicals, or sentiment, will that not be reflected as activity in the market i.e price movement and volume and in that respect I would have thought that the ability to read and interpret volume provides an extra edge to trading.

2. As for trading live with volume analysis, Malcolm Robinson at http://www.futures-day-trader.com/ does exactly that, no indicators whatsoever, and no news reports, and he demonstrates this in his trading room, obviously it is not going to be a free entry

3. VSA trader also employs his skills on Intraday trading with much success, so did Todd Kruger at Tradeguider and Nick Radge at the Chartist.

At the risk of further derailing this thread (sorry), Grey appears to demonstrate what he does succesfully for free, I believe.

Though it's good that there are people who will share their knowledge for an initial fee of £1000, and £250 thereafter, It's not clear that it settles a debate about the worth of volume in all this.

The thread remains very interesting though - and thanks to the VSA trader for this.

UTB

PS - to clarify due to responses below - I don't have on opinion on Volume - I'm not qualified. I was countering, somewhat, claims of evidence of volume being used sucessfully - for all to see - for a mere £1,000 + £250 ongoing. Slightly ironic, if only to myself.

 

[dbphoenix]

At the risk of further derailing this thread (sorry), Grey appears to demonstrate what he does succesfully for free, I believe.

Though it's good that there are people who will share their knowledge for an initial fee of £1000, and £250 thereafter, It's not clear that it settles a debate about the worth of volume in all this.

The thread remains very interesting though - and thanks to the VSA trader for this.

UTB

There's no debate to settle. Traders have been using volume for a century. If one personally finds no value in it, one cannot therefore conclude that there is no value to be found.

Since no system or strategy is being provided, there is nothing to "prove". One can incorporate an understanding of trading activity (volume) into his trading in many ways. Or not at all. His choice. Just as reading the thread or ignoring it entirely is his choice. Allowing this thread to exist and continue will not do anyone any irreparable harm. And since Manby is willing to share what he knows for free, it won't cost anybody anything, either.

Db

 

[Joey]

At the risk of further derailing this thread (sorry), Grey appears to demonstrate what he does succesfully for free, I believe.
Though it's good that there are people who will share their knowledge for an initial fee of £1000, and £250 thereafter, It's not clear that it settles a debate about the worth of volume in all this.
UTB

Have to agree with DB, Volume is a tool and very effective if read in the context of the price action , and just like any other (RSI,CCI,MaCD,)
some traders use it to their advantage, others are unable to do handle it and move on to other indicators. There are many who use combinations of Ema, ADX of ema , derivatives of derivatives and trade successfully, but do not claim that volume or market profile etc have no value, how can there be a debate to settle the worth of any indicator for to do so would be like finding a holy grail, I am sure whatever Grey1 is doing has probability attached to it, all his trades can't be certain winners.
Again it is irrelevant if somebody is showing it free and the other person is charging for it. A trader has to assemble his own tools, identify his own setups and test them to create his own edge.

 

[Grey1]

There is a correlation between volume and price and no one denies it specially me after spending all my life studying financial engineering .,How ever there is a little evidence that ..

1) correlation can be effectively measured
2) correlation is significant



Any way ,, After ABU DUBI stake in CIT there is a talk of more investors taking stakes in other US banks and hence pressure off of bank sector for the time being ,, Hence the rally ..

I took a short view to market on the turn of the cycle but did not make much to day ,,,No LONGS just SHORTS. LONG postions carried more risk by 12% compare to shorts for more return but i decided to take the less risky path ...Hence lesser return

Market up 200 point to day ,,, down 200 point yesterday.. I am 100 % sure some clever SALES MAN comes up with some kinda after event Technical Analysis for the rally .


Grey1

 

[dbphoenix]

There is a correlation between volume and price and no one denies it specially me after spending all my life studying financial engineering .,How ever there is a little evidence that ..

1) correlation can be effectively measured
2) correlation is significant



Any way ,, After ABU DUBI stake in CIT there is a talk of more investors taking stakes in other US banks and hence pressure off of bank sector for the time being ,, Hence the rally ..

I took a short view to market on the turn of the cycle but did not make much to day ,,,No LONGS just SHORTS. LONG postions carried more risk by 12% compare to shorts for more return but i decided to take the less risky path ...Hence lesser return

Market up 200 point to day ,,, down 200 point yesterday.. I am 100 % sure some clever SALES MAN comes up with some kinda after event Technical Analysis for the rally .


Grey1

Some clever salesman might. But what does any of that have to do with the subject of the thread? Perhaps you would feel better if you got whatever is on your chest off.

Db

 

[VSATrader]

ES Analysis for Tuesday 27th Nov 07

If you don't like my posts, then just let me know and I won't waste my time writing them, I have better things to do with my time.
Regards Seastian

 

[dbphoenix]

If you don't like my posts, then just let me know and I won't waste my time writing them, I have better things to do with my time.
Regards Seastian

These posts have been and will be a valuable resource for anyone wanting to understand the relationship between price and volume. Of course, not everyone is interested, but one hopes that those who aren't will simply leave it alone.

Db

 

[VSATrader]

Thanks DB

 

[the blades]

If you don't like my posts, then just let me know and I won't waste my time writing them, I have better things to do with my time.
Regards Seastian

please don't misunderstand my post. I'm sure your input is valuable, and definitely of interest.

Keep it up.

UTB

 

[dbphoenix]

Thanks DB

If I may, and having said what I said, surely a month's worth of charts should be plenty to illustrate the basic principles of the relationship between P and V, and you're almost there. Perhaps you would be interested in providing more exercises such as the one you posted for the 14th, putting a dot or a number or whatever at those points that you think are important. This gives those new to this someplace to start, something to focus on, and will require far less of your time.

Db

 

[erierambler]

If you don't like my posts, then just let me know and I won't waste my time writing them, I have better things to do with my time.
Regards Sebastian

I for one appreciate the posts Sebastian, it's not a waste of your time. Thanks for posting.
erie

 

[grantx]

Sebastian,

May I suggest you seperate chart and text (possibly put text directly on post)? Either could then be printed if required. This would avoid flicking back and forth between the two.

Grant.