S&P 500 weekly competition for 2012

Good idea. I expect you mean beginning of the week though

Thanks Pat,

Yes before start of Monday US trading session.

Lot of data there too. Good stuff. (y)

If system is abused we can open up a generic share site and reveal pwd to participating members. If you are happy Rob, then I'm happy following your exemplary work as is now. :)
 
Thanks Pat,

Yes before start of Monday US trading session.

Lot of data there too. Good stuff. (y)

If system is abused we can open up a generic share site and reveal pwd to participating members. If you are happy Rob, then I'm happy following your exemplary work as is now. :)

So at the moment, it is on my google drive and unless somebody has a compelling reason to move it, there is no problem with me keeping it on there.

If you unhide the columns you get all the data for this year. It is probably a rich source of analysis if you have the time to look at it, either individually or collectively.
 
So at the moment, it is on my google drive and unless somebody has a compelling reason to move it, there is no problem with me keeping it on there.

If you unhide the columns you get all the data for this year. It is probably a rich source of analysis if you have the time to look at it, either individually or collectively.

The average weekly difference in Column B and Sum of the weekly difference in Column C are interesting. Of the people that had participated every week all year, you were the closest on average robster. Is a shame you're not playing anymore.
 

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Those first 2 columns are not up to date - they finish at AN but need to run to CQ now. I think the actuals up until last week are probably different and would reflect the deterioration in my perfomance for the Q2 and Q3 too.

As anybody can edit, feel free to do so :)
 
BTW, I'll explain why I'm not playing or posting as much tomorrow after I've done the results for EoW. I don't mind sharing with you guys - you're old friend :)
 
Those first 2 columns are not up to date - they finish at AN but need to run to CQ now. I think the actuals up until last week are probably different and would reflect the deterioration in my perfomance for the Q2 and Q3 too.

As anybody can edit, feel free to do so :)

I've had a go at editing the B & C columns. Hopefully I've not messed it up. Looks like Pat is the most consistent on average over the year so far. Impressive showing from the weighted average too, need to find a way to trade it as has been very accurate over the year on average.

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I've had a go at editing the B & C columns. Hopefully I've not messed it up. Looks like Pat is the most consistent on average over the year so far. Impressive showing from the weighted average too, need to find a way to trade it as has been very accurate over the year on average.

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I liked the sum (diff) - shows whether people are generally bullish or bearish
 
I liked the sum (diff) - shows whether people are generally bullish or bearish

Interesting, the group has been generally bearish then this year as there is 9 bears to 5 bulls in sum column, although two of those bears are the weighted average and standard average. So 7 to 5 actual people.

The S&P 500 is up just over 7% since the start of the year currently.

Most Bullish this year:
1. VielGeld
2. Isatrader
3. robster970

Most Bearish this year:
1. samspade79
2. wackypete2
3. Atilla
 
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There ain't nothin' more stereotypical than a 25 year-old who's eternally optimistic! :LOL:

Also, cheer up, Pete! World's still going to be here in 2013. :)

Very interesting analysis, though. Yes, I've been wondering if this data was tradeable myself, but I doubt it if we insert the meta-game of trying to make a forecast and following other's predictions. It might add an unintended psychological element. Still -- very fascinating how the wt average has come out nearly on top.

As for the spreadsheet, does Excel allow locking of cells for certain periods of time? For example, it could be locked for editing between close of Friday and open of Monday. That might work.
 
Hi Rob,

I've had a little play on the shared sheet...

1. Created new column for 11/23/2012 next week's forecast
2. Appointed points for Direction and Podium
3. Entered my forecast for next week.


However, sorting the columns with primary Points(EoW) isn't working out.

Do you use the auto sort or do that manually?


Regards,
Atilla
 
If anyone can edit everything I don't think it will last long. Too many hands in the pot. Sorry to hear Rob isn't going to be taking care of the results anymore but very understandable. I'm sure it takes a bit of work. Great job though, and thanks, Rob!

by the way who won this week??
Was most likely someone who nearly nailed it. What a great prediction if I must say so myself. :whistling

Peter
 
Hi Rob,

I've had a little play on the shared sheet...

1. Created new column for 11/23/2012 next week's forecast
2. Appointed points for Direction and Podium
3. Entered my forecast for next week.


However, sorting the columns with primary Points(EoW) isn't working out.

Do you use the auto sort or do that manually?


Regards,
Atilla

I can see my friend - it needed some tidying up but that's only because I haven't explained what I do each week to administer the sheet. I'll write it up in another tab on the sheet over the weekend.
 

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Actually lads, don't set up the sheet for this week or do the results for the EoW as I will write down each step I go through for each. If I don't do this, I will forget something.
 
So lads, as to why I'm not around that much these days.

Well it has been an interesting year for me. Q1/Q2 were stellar trading conditions and results but it didn't last and I had a pretty cr@p Q3. It made me re-evaluate how I trade and I came to a number of conclusions with support from some other people I talk to off board.

Essentially I have been gradually changing the way I trade away from short term scalping to a more fluid discretionary intraday style. This has meant a certain degree of psych work for me as well as augmenting my (internalised) understanding of the markets, how they operate and who the participants really are.

So my primary reason for not posting here is because I am trading very differently now. More frequently yet more discerning. Trades run for longer now too. It is for me an augmentation in discretionary trading but it is framed by a structure of market understanding. It has genuinely become a job of work now. As it is now work, work is enjoyable but is in itself not recreational and with the time that I have outside of trading I am just enjoying the fruits of my labours and generally hanging out with my wife and kids, growing older together and watching us all develop. For me this is about as good as things get.

As a trading resource, T2W doesn't give me anything more than companionship these days and with me spending more time engaging in the real world, I am around here less and less. Hence it seems unfair (at least to me) to carry on administering something for you in a half-hearted way. The comp is great and it should be run with diligence. Hence my decision to stand-down lads.
 
Spending more time with the family and less time trading or working is as things should be! I'm glad it's working out for you (y)

Peter
 
So lads, as to why I'm not around that much these days.

Well it has been an interesting year for me. Q1/Q2 were stellar trading conditions and results but it didn't last and I had a pretty cr@p Q3. It made me re-evaluate how I trade and I came to a number of conclusions with support from some other people I talk to off board.

Essentially I have been gradually changing the way I trade away from short term scalping to a more fluid discretionary intraday style. This has meant a certain degree of psych work for me as well as augmenting my (internalised) understanding of the markets, how they operate and who the participants really are.

So my primary reason for not posting here is because I am trading very differently now. More frequently yet more discerning. Trades run for longer now too. It is for me an augmentation in discretionary trading but it is framed by a structure of market understanding. It has genuinely become a job of work now. As it is now work, work is enjoyable but is in itself not recreational and with the time that I have outside of trading I am just enjoying the fruits of my labours and generally hanging out with my wife and kids, growing older together and watching us all develop. For me this is about as good as things get.

As a trading resource, T2W doesn't give me anything more than companionship these days and with me spending more time engaging in the real world, I am around here less and less. Hence it seems unfair (at least to me) to carry on administering something for you in a half-hearted way. The comp is great and it should be run with diligence. Hence my decision to stand-down lads.

We evolve
 
Hi all, first off well done to all you lucky winners,i just can't seem to nail it this quarter how ever hard i try.
Missed it by a nats wisker again.
so here goes nothing 1366 for next week please rob.
 
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