S&P 500 weekly competition for 2012

[robster970]

Predictions for this week.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AnFF2Rblu36wdGRNQjNXTzVjdldJb2dXdjRVTGs5VVE&pli=1#gid=0

On a serious note (not that this forecasting lark isn't serious), it has probably not escaped your attention that I am spending less and less time posting on here and less and less time administering the weekly comp.

It is with some regret that I will announce my retirement from administration on 31st December.

Who's going to step forward eh? I made almost $2 in bribes for podium places this year and that's got to be worth it alone!

 

[Pat494]

Predictions for this week.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AnFF2Rblu36wdGRNQjNXTzVjdldJb2dXdjRVTGs5VVE&pli=1#gid=0

On a serious note (not that this forecasting lark isn't serious), it has probably not escaped your attention that I am spending less and less time posting on here and less and less time administering the weekly comp.

It is with some regret that I will announce my retirement from administration on 31st December.

Who's going to step forward eh? I made almost $2 in bribes for podium places this year and that's got to be worth it alone!

Well done Rob and thanks for your efforts this year

Hopefully someone would like to step forward for next year ?

 

[Vicorka]

I would recommend to add to the list the "Average Trader" - a virtual trader who would always made a bet which is equal to average bet of all participators.

I think it would be interesting to track this virtual trader's record and have his record in our score table to see how he performs. It should not affect the way the points are calculated for us. For him it should be similar
- We assign him 1 point to him when his trend is guessed
- additional 3 points if he closer/equal then the best bet (best bet still receives 3 points)
- and etc

 

[VielGeld]

^ Isn't that the "Average"? If so, then we already have it in there, as well as a "weighted average".

 

[Hakuna Matata]

short spoos vols

 

[Pat494]

^ Isn't that the "Average"? If so, then we already have it in there, as well as a "weighted average".

Yes you are right. Perhaps I could point out that the weighted average trader almost always beats the average trader and is usually in the top half of the list !

 

[Vicorka]

Yes you are right. Perhaps I could point out that the weighted average trader almost always beats the average trader and is usually in the top half of the list !

I know that we have average calculated, but what place takes the average trader in the table of scores. How many points in total did he scored over the past months. What place exactly is he holding?

 

[Gaffs1964]

I'm not sure I follow you Vicorka, the Average is 8th in position atm according to Robs chart?

 

[Vicorka]

I'm not sure I follow you Vicorka, the Average is 8th in position atm according to Robs chart?

I see, sorry, I'm blind sometimes.

 

[Gaffs1964]

I see, sorry, I'm blind sometimes.

I'm like that with charts most of the time!

 

[isatrader]

Attached is the annual tally so far by my calculation. Weighted average is second with seven weeks of results to go. dpinpon was leading strongly in the annual tally at the end of the third quarter but hasn't participated this quarter yet and so has dropped to third.

 

[Pat494]

Attached is the annual tally so far by my calculation. Weighted average is second with seven weeks of results to go. dpinpon was leading strongly in the annual tally at the end of the third quarter but hasn't participated this quarter yet and so has dropped to third.

Guess who is top ! :clap:
How about you having a go at being in charge next year ?

 

[isatrader]

Guess who is top ! :clap:
How about you having a go at being in charge next year ?

yeah I didn't want to mention that :innocent:

I already run two content heavy threads Market Breadth and the Stan Weinstein method discussion thread. As you'll see if you look at them, they already take up many hours a week for me as are a lot of manual work, so I don't really want to take on any more. But I hope someone else does, as I enjoy competing each week on here.

 

[Pat494]

Come on someone don't be shy.
Atilla, Gaffs .....?

 

[isatrader]

Maybe T2W management should take it over and make it a proper competition with prizes for the monthly, quarterly and Annual winner starting from 2013?

 

[Atilla]

Come on someone don't be shy.
Atilla, Gaffs .....?

Hi Guys,

I've had an idea. Why don't we use google docs to share spread-sheet and input forecasts directly.

1. All numbers to be entered by end of day Monday before market open
2. We take a screen capture to make sure no creative forecasting takes place
3. Hey presto self regulating competition averages, numbers and scoring as much as possible.

I'll have a play onsite next few days to see if it can setup.

 

[robster970]

Hi Guys,

I've had an idea. Why don't we use google docs to share spread-sheet and input forecasts directly.

1. All numbers to be entered by end of day Monday before market open
2. We take a screen capture to make sure no creative forecasting takes place
3. Hey presto self regulating competition averages, numbers and scoring as much as possible.

I'll have a play onsite next few days to see if it can setup.

I have just made the doc I use editable for everyone......

Note, it does require setting up weekly but I can add instructions into a tab to tell you what to do.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AnFF2Rblu36wdGRNQjNXTzVjdldJb2dXdjRVTGs5VVE

 

[Atilla]

I have just made the doc I use editable for everyone......

Note, it does require setting up weekly but I can add instructions into a tab to tell you what to do.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AnFF2Rblu36wdGRNQjNXTzVjdldJb2dXdjRVTGs5VVE

That's great Rob.

I'm happy to make the weekly adjustments.

Your spread sheet is a great innovation.

 

[Pat494]

Hi Guys,

I've had an idea. Why don't we use google docs to share spread-sheet and input forecasts directly.

1. All numbers to be entered by end of day Monday before market open
2. We take a screen capture to make sure no creative forecasting takes place
3. Hey presto self regulating competition averages, numbers and scoring as much as possible.

I'll have a play onsite next few days to see if it can setup.

Good idea. I expect you mean beginning of the week though

 

[Gaffs1964]

I have just made the doc I use editable for everyone......

Note, it does require setting up weekly but I can add instructions into a tab to tell you what to do.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AnFF2Rblu36wdGRNQjNXTzVjdldJb2dXdjRVTGs5VVE

Great idea, happy to help out if anything needs doing.