S&P 500 weekly competition for 2012

assessment of the likelihood of movement SP500



Daily BUY SHORT
2012.10.10 19% 81%
2012.10.09 13% 87%
2012.10.08 23% 77%
2012.10.05 44% 56%
2012.10.04 45% 55%
2012.10.03 50% 50%
2012.10.02 61% 39%
2012.10.01 69% 31%
2012.09.28 74% 26%



Weekly

2012.10.05 31% 69%
2012.09.28 33% 67%
2012.09.21 53% 47%
2012.09.14 58% 42%



Monthly

2012.09.28 52% 48%
2012.08.31 57% 43%
2012.07.31 50% 50%

actually your figures in my opinion are quite interesting, in that they clearly show trends
 
Correct me if I'm wrong. Unless you are not doing it from Friday to Friday.

Friday,October 5, S&P 500 Close:1460.90
Friday,October 12, S&P 500 Close:1428.59

isatrader..............1476........0 point
ibetyou................1464........0 points
Pat494.................1456........1 points
hwsteele...............1451........1 points
Gaffs1964.............1450........1 points
samspade79...........1441........1 points
Atilla...................1439........2 points
Vicorka................1430........3 points
wackypete2...........1429........4 points
Vielgeld...............0000........
 
Correct me if I'm wrong. Unless you are not doing it from Friday to Friday.

Friday,October 5, S&P 500 Close:1460.90
Friday,October 12, S&P 500 Close:1428.59

isatrader..............1476........0 point
ibetyou................1464........0 points
Pat494.................1456........1 points
hwsteele...............1451........1 points
Gaffs1964.............1450........1 points
samspade79...........1441........1 points
Atilla...................1439........2 points
Vicorka................1430........3 points
wackypete2...........1429........4 points
Vielgeld...............0000........

thanks. We do it weekly and quarterly, so last week's figures will be added to this weeks. hwSteel has stepped in for robster who is currently sunning himseld in Spain for 2 weeks.
 
Sorry all, I was doing that family stuff all day yesterday.
Just now getting to some "me" time.

The close as I have it is 1428.59 which means Mr. pete has been hanging out with the devil again. ( Which makes you a winner here at least!:devilish:)

First place goes to wackypete2 who had 1429.
Second goes to Vicorka who had 1430.
Third goes to Atilla who had 1439.

The good news is that almost every one will get a point!

Here is the running total for every one so far...

samspade79...........5 points
wackypete2...........4 points
gaffs1964...............4 points
Vicorka.................3 points
Atilla....................2 points
Vielgeld................2 points
Pat494..................1 point
isatrader...............1 point
hwsteele...............1 point
ibetyou.................0 points

The mean also has 1 point.

Also, welcome back robster. I hope you had a great vacation. I think that the last two weeks proves this tread is a better place with you here!
 
Wb, Mr. Rob!

I r sad I missed last week. Would've been good for another point. :( I'll be taking 1451 this week since Gaffs took 1450 already.

An interesting trend going on here is that I've been thinking this sort of stuff is perhaps tradeable. There are, on average, 13 weeks per quarter. So even my measly average so far of about 8 wins per quarter is still 8/13 = 61.5% win rate just for direction. I would assume that if you consistently score 10-12+ points, then you might have something on your hands.

Of course, this doesn't account for how much you would win/lose in any given week, but it at least does show that getting direction right ain't rocket science. :smart:
 
Not sure if Mr. Robertster is going to take care of this week or not (may still be a little hung over) so here are the numbers for every one this week...


hwsteele...................1457.34
VielGeld....................1451
Gaff1964....................1450
Pat494.......................1442
isatrader....................1419
Atilla.........................1418
ibetyou......................1417
wackypete2................1411
Vicorka......................1405

mean 1430.04
 
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