robster970
Guest Author
- Messages
- 4,567
- Likes
- 1,390
Pat494
Legendary member
- Messages
- 14,614
- Likes
- 1,588
I think just about everyone knows where those billions/trillions have gone and even now are filtering through the system until they end up in the pockets of rich bankers and their bought politicians etc. A neat trick of smoke and mirrors but it's increasingly obvious the taxpayers' loss is their gain.
The end location after buying a big estate etc. is the markets. The 750 acre estate next door was bought last autumn for about £8 million.
Pat494
Legendary member
- Messages
- 14,614
- Likes
- 1,588
NEW YORK (Frankfurt: A0DKRK - news) , March 16 (Reuters) - Investors are beginning to wonder if this Energizer Bunny of a rally can just keep going without taking a break or a fall.
Every Friday for the past couple of months, the question has hung in the back of investors' minds: Is the stock market's rally strong enough to continue without a correction?
Even with the S&P 500 above levels unseen since before the financial crisis, the answer remains: Yes.
The broad market index broke through 1,400 - a psychologically important level - for the first time in four years this week. On Friday, the S&P 500 closed at 1,404.17, its highest since May 20, 2008. The index is up for nine out of the past 10 weeks.
"We are seeing this unbelievable rally in the market and yet the market is unbelievably complacent. We haven't been this bullish for a long time," said Randy Frederick, director of trading and derivatives at the Schwab Center for Financial Research, based in Austin, Texas.
Indeed, the CBOE Volatility Index or VIX, Wall Street's fear gauge, plunged to a five-year low despite the S&P 500's stunning gain of 12 percent for the year so far. The VIX measures the expected volatility in the S&P 500 index over the next 30 days and generally moves in the opposite direction of the broad market. Investors often use VIX options and futures as a hedge against a market decline.
Frederick said the only concern is the wide spread between second- and third-month VIX futures, suggesting a rise in volatility in the longer term. But the front-month futures that expire next week have come down to levels near the spot VIX. The VIX fell 6.2 percent on Friday to end at 14.47, its lowest close since June 2007.
"I would like to see the VIX around 17 just because it tends to have a significant pop when there is bad news at current levels," Frederick said, adding that "frankly" there isn't that much negative news out there.
STRENGTH IN MIDCAPS
Further evidence of the market's bullish sentiment: The S&P 400 midcap index has popped above the 1,000 mark, an area of strong resistance since last year, according to Ryan Detrick, senior technical strategist with Schaeffer's Investment Research, in Cincinnati.
"It's a big area of resistance, but we have moved above this. If we manage to stay here, then the strength in the overall market will advance further," Detrick said.
"Historically, April has been a strong month so we can even see the market going up to 1,440, which is the high made in May 2008," he added.
TRACKING THE BIG APPLE
The direction of Apple shares will also be in focus next week after the stock hit the $600 mark for the first time in history this week, only about a month after it topped $500.
Apple currently accounts for about 18 percent of the Nasdaq (Nasdaq: ^NDX - news) 100 stock index. Its (Euronext: ALITS.NX - news) weighting was cut to 12.3 percent from 20.5 percent last April, but the price surge has pushed the stock's weighting back up, making this index of 100 well-known companies hostage to the performance of a few technology titans like Apple.
With Apple's heavy weighting, investors are questioning whether the broad market can continue to rally even with a pullback in Apple shares.
"It's a name that a lot of people have exposure to so it definitely has an impact on indexes, but it seems even without Apple, the money gets put to work in other sectors and stocks," Detrick said.
While the VIX has been sliding, the expected volatility in Apple has increased, judging by a VIX index that tracks Apple (Xetra: 865985 - news) options. Apple, like IBM (NYSE: IBM - news) and other bellwether names, has its own VIX index.
The CBOE Apple VIX index, which measures the expected 30-day volatility of the underlying shares of Apple, jumped 35 percent this week, suggesting more gyrations ahead as more investors speculate on short-term moves.
(Wall St Week Ahead runs every Friday. Questions or comments on this column can be emailed to: angela.moon(at)thomsonreuters.com) (Reporting By Angela Moon; Editing by Jan Paschal)
...
.
Every Friday for the past couple of months, the question has hung in the back of investors' minds: Is the stock market's rally strong enough to continue without a correction?
Even with the S&P 500 above levels unseen since before the financial crisis, the answer remains: Yes.
The broad market index broke through 1,400 - a psychologically important level - for the first time in four years this week. On Friday, the S&P 500 closed at 1,404.17, its highest since May 20, 2008. The index is up for nine out of the past 10 weeks.
"We are seeing this unbelievable rally in the market and yet the market is unbelievably complacent. We haven't been this bullish for a long time," said Randy Frederick, director of trading and derivatives at the Schwab Center for Financial Research, based in Austin, Texas.
Indeed, the CBOE Volatility Index or VIX, Wall Street's fear gauge, plunged to a five-year low despite the S&P 500's stunning gain of 12 percent for the year so far. The VIX measures the expected volatility in the S&P 500 index over the next 30 days and generally moves in the opposite direction of the broad market. Investors often use VIX options and futures as a hedge against a market decline.
Frederick said the only concern is the wide spread between second- and third-month VIX futures, suggesting a rise in volatility in the longer term. But the front-month futures that expire next week have come down to levels near the spot VIX. The VIX fell 6.2 percent on Friday to end at 14.47, its lowest close since June 2007.
"I would like to see the VIX around 17 just because it tends to have a significant pop when there is bad news at current levels," Frederick said, adding that "frankly" there isn't that much negative news out there.
STRENGTH IN MIDCAPS
Further evidence of the market's bullish sentiment: The S&P 400 midcap index has popped above the 1,000 mark, an area of strong resistance since last year, according to Ryan Detrick, senior technical strategist with Schaeffer's Investment Research, in Cincinnati.
"It's a big area of resistance, but we have moved above this. If we manage to stay here, then the strength in the overall market will advance further," Detrick said.
"Historically, April has been a strong month so we can even see the market going up to 1,440, which is the high made in May 2008," he added.
TRACKING THE BIG APPLE
The direction of Apple shares will also be in focus next week after the stock hit the $600 mark for the first time in history this week, only about a month after it topped $500.
Apple currently accounts for about 18 percent of the Nasdaq (Nasdaq: ^NDX - news) 100 stock index. Its (Euronext: ALITS.NX - news) weighting was cut to 12.3 percent from 20.5 percent last April, but the price surge has pushed the stock's weighting back up, making this index of 100 well-known companies hostage to the performance of a few technology titans like Apple.
With Apple's heavy weighting, investors are questioning whether the broad market can continue to rally even with a pullback in Apple shares.
"It's a name that a lot of people have exposure to so it definitely has an impact on indexes, but it seems even without Apple, the money gets put to work in other sectors and stocks," Detrick said.
While the VIX has been sliding, the expected volatility in Apple has increased, judging by a VIX index that tracks Apple (Xetra: 865985 - news) options. Apple, like IBM (NYSE: IBM - news) and other bellwether names, has its own VIX index.
The CBOE Apple VIX index, which measures the expected 30-day volatility of the underlying shares of Apple, jumped 35 percent this week, suggesting more gyrations ahead as more investors speculate on short-term moves.
(Wall St Week Ahead runs every Friday. Questions or comments on this column can be emailed to: angela.moon(at)thomsonreuters.com) (Reporting By Angela Moon; Editing by Jan Paschal)
...
.
tar
Legendary member
- Messages
- 10,443
- Likes
- 1,314
robster970
Guest Author
- Messages
- 4,567
- Likes
- 1,390
First off congrats to the winners, they pinpoint the markets take off a week before. On the flip side some money media hosts agree with Pat over to buy on each retracement and they think these shall be small as well. The freight train is beefed up and will be hard to stop this week. My call is 1425.
BTW, hehe, we have a long weekend so hope to see your posts until next tuesday.
hwsteele
Experienced member
- Messages
- 1,227
- Likes
- 182
Well congratulations to the leader board three
The "logic" I'm looking at here is as follows:
1: The market can't go up forever.
2: Big round numbers tend to offer support/resistance
3: Even if the market can move higher a retracement would be nice:|
4: Those dang options/futures can be murder
5: Even a broken/stopped clock is right twice a day
So I will once again go for a lower close this Friday March 23 at, let's say, 1378.
That's my story and I'm sticking to it!
Again, Congrats to the winners!:clover:
The "logic"
I'm looking at here is as follows:1: The market can't go up forever.
2: Big round numbers tend to offer support/resistance
3: Even if the market can move higher a retracement would be nice:|
4: Those dang options/futures can be murder
5: Even a broken/stopped clock is right twice a day
So I will once again go for a lower close this Friday March 23 at, let's say, 1378.
That's my story and I'm sticking to it!
Again, Congrats to the winners!:clover:
robster970
Guest Author
- Messages
- 4,567
- Likes
- 1,390
1377 for me this week.
samspade79
Established member
- Messages
- 576
- Likes
- 25
I really want a down week this week but we won't get it while everyone is bearish
Dick Lexic
Veteren member
- Messages
- 4,954
- Likes
- 124
My first shot 1392 please.
It goes up and clears last weeks high, then as it has a good look around at the 1420’s it chickens out and gradually falls back below 1400 and finally by the end of the week it closes at 1392 on the button.
If you are wondering where I got this info I got it from la la land which is where I think the S&P resides at the moment. lol
It goes up and clears last weeks high, then as it has a good look around at the 1420’s it chickens out and gradually falls back below 1400 and finally by the end of the week it closes at 1392 on the button.
If you are wondering where I got this info I got it from la la land which is where I think the S&P resides at the moment. lol
