S&P 500 & other indexes - intraday. Plus chat

[kimo'sabby]

Spirit of Jazz
Old Gregg

Can watch these 2 endlessly. I really mean endlessly. Comedy genius IMO.

Brilliant!

 

[scose-no-doubt]

Don't forget Eels.

 

[splashy]

Splashy,

Very interesting to see a different kind of technique, I remember reading about it a while back. The thing I like about it is that its simple and systematic and your results speak for themselves. The problem I always had with it is knowing whats a 1 and what's a 2, etc. For example, on your FTSE chart, why doesn't point B then become a 1? Or does it have to be a swing low in this case depending on the trend line or something?

There are no predetermined directions which i guess is why it is useful as a reversal strategy. I find it just as fruitful trading pullbacks in a steady trend.
No ma's or indicators...the patterns tell me which direction to trade in by virtue of making higher highs/higher lows for long trades, and lower highs/lower lows for shorts. The high by 'B' in the chart that you mentioned would originally have been a potential 1 in a short pattern. (If you look carefully in the chart you'll see a faint blue line leading from the point where i was provisionally drawing in the first line of the pattern). Then point 2 and point 3 manifested and then...no point 4 or trigger so the pattern to go short wasn't completed. Meanwhile the pattern to go long was brewing and was completed so there was the trade even though i didn't take it.

I see the point in the method though, trying to catch some pips in the middle of trend (put very simply)

yep, by virtue of the characteristic that it waits for confirmation of the trigger at pt 4, the extremes of the trend/range don't get traded although it can pick up a reversal quite quickly.

The swing high on the dax that went above 6490.7 that got heavily rejected would have been my kind of trade, what a beauty.

.

 

[robster970]

Hi guys, let me clog up your thread...

I love simple methods like this. They always seem to hold up much better than overtly complex ones, probably because they reflect an underlying consistent behaviour in the market.

Couple of questions:

1) Do you notice that the best trades correlate to certain times of day (8:30 to 10:00, 14:30 to 15:30) for example?

2) I was surprised the draw-down wasn't as big - do you think this is down to trade selection and knowing that your 2xrisk has been pinged/traded through (and likely to be re-tested)?

 

[splashy]

I love simple methods like this. They always seem to hold up much better than overtly complex ones, probably because they reflect an underlying consistent behaviour in the market.

Couple of questions:

1) Do you notice that the best trades correlate to certain times of day (8:30 to 10:00, 14:30 to 15:30) for example?

2) I was surprised the draw-down wasn't as big - do you think this is down to trade selection and knowing that your 2xrisk has been pinged/traded through (and likely to be re-tested)?

Hi robster, nope i can't say that i've detected any better or worse times of day for trading. What i have noticed though is that after a news event that has sent the market sharply up or down, i start rubbing my hands because either a reversal or continuation is not usually far away and with all that leftover energy, something nice often happens.
This system is entirely non discretionary apart from the trendlines/channel lines i draw on the charts each morning. If it tells me to trade, i trade and leave it until its finished so trade selection is intrinsic to the system and not arbitrary.
The system is based on current PA i.e. higher highs/higher lows etc which directly reflect immediate sentiment. Everybody notices lower lows, higher highs etc. If the targets are small, there's always a good chance sentiment will hold long enough to reach it so you're never far away from a profit, hence drawdowns shouldn't really add up to much.:smart:
Re the 2X rule...we are never far away from a trend developing whether it be minor or major so if i have a target of 20 pips and the next high is at 25, i might think i have room to aim for my target. But if sentiment is deteriorating and a new high is put in at 18, i won't get my target. Hence the 2x rule avoids such pitfalls. Obviously some slip through the net as on dax yesterday but its all about probabilities and percentages and i believe it pays. Also, i don't really take much notice of fibs but at the beginning of a new trend, perhaps after a reversal, if i trade the 2x rule it means i can make my targets while still being within a fib level that others are trading to.
Just as an aside, i almost feel that i'm not trading the markets, rather that i'm waiting for instructions as to when to trade. All i have to do is do my logs at the end of each day and week to make sure nothings is going awry.

 

[robster970]

Did you ever have discretionary elements in your trading Splashy?

 

[splashy]

Did you ever have discretionary elements in your trading Splashy?

yep, i use a similar system on some fx pairs and they are profitable using this system but not enough to make them worth trading, so on the fx i use discretion. For some reason, my discretion on indices doesn't work very well lol.I guess they are smarter than i am.
Also, i'll trade channels and t/lines etc on fx and they are discretionary.
Although there is one dicretionary thing i'll do on the indices...if a significant news release is due and i'm well in profit or somewehre near my target, i'll cash in or treat my current position as break even and manage my capital accordingly by increasing target and bringing up stop...

 

[DionysusToast]

12th July

Europe & Asia down

No change for me - I still see it the same as last time. We are either travelling back to the other side of the intermediate range (red arrows) or we'll go back up to the top of the shorter term range (green arrows).

Gut says we go down but will let the action decide.

Longs - 1320, 1313
Shorts - Look for bounces off LVNs on the way down. Possible reversal downs off yesterdays close - 1336.75 or yesterdays low 1327.75

 

[kimo'sabby]

The finished product. The market could be selling off again today, we'll see. The above technicals go hand-in-hand with CD/Volume. If you look back at historical levels, you'll notice how very little interest was shown throughout this week...hence the market falls.

 

[DionysusToast]

Tough day - 1 scratch & 1 trade where I quit down 1 tick for 5 contracts.

Going to call it a day, I can't scalp these ranges - been too much going on with Missys 30th Bday this week & I can't focus as I need to.

Party tomorrow night... :clap:

 

[DionysusToast]

LMAO - just packing up too....

Bounced off the LVN @ 1320.50 - buyers stepped in - you can see the volumes. Not huge but it was in the right place.

See if I can get a bit of a runner today. Although me saying that seems to be the runner kiss of death (or at least broken ankle).

 

[Pat494]

Tough day - 1 scratch & 1 trade where I quit down 1 tick for 5 contracts.

Going to call it a day, I can't scalp these ranges - been too much going on with Missys 30th Bday this week & I can't focus as I need to.

Party tomorrow night... :clap:

Knees up mother Brown

 

[DionysusToast]

Done.

Entr
10:13 – T1 - 3 points (1322.25)
10:30 Pulled T2 back to 2 points & put stop @ b/e - stuggling o move up...
10:32 – T2 - 2 points (1323.25)

got stopped on the last part @ 1320.75, so gave back 2 ticks there.

Anyway, who cares, I'm really off to bed now...

Good luck

 

[robster970]

Todays trade:

 

[splashy]

I won't make a habit of posting these up but i'll put up a couple in case people are curious...
Not a great day for showing examples of a system but you have to take the ugly with the pretty...
Only one pattern today on dax and that wasn't taken because of the proximity to the days low and previous resistance. Also, the risk and target would have been greater than 40 so i would have left it alone even had it been a clear run. The system invalidated the trade for me and it failed anyway.
2 patterns on ftse but both invalidated. Pattern A was short and also had a lower low and resistance close by. It went through anyway but dax didn't show a flicker at the same time so i'm presuming it was something news based.
Pattern B was a long pattern and failed at the same line when support turned resistance.
Ironically, the best pattern was pattern C on ftse which i've marked on the chart but haven't taken because it triggered after my cut off. The PA went through the days trendline and the same resistance line and then supllied me with a trigger which is usually a good sign.I'll be interested to see where it goes but its been a jerky kinda day and i'm happy my system kept me on the sidelines.

 

[kimo'sabby]

So the next set-up resulted in a 5pt loss, but we take the set-up (trading 101). What i'm looking for now is a fix on the best auction prices. There may be more downside to come, at the moment though, the way i see it, the original auction prices are done. Back to the waiting game.

 

[piggybridges]

2 sp500 trades today for +7 points or so (70 pips)
statement + chart attached.
I like days like these

 

[robster970]

2 sp500 trades today for +7 points or so (70 pips)
statement + chart attached.
I like days like these

Good work that man!

 

[dpinpon]

Robster, I meant more something like this, thanks anyway.
Futuros S&P | Futuros S&P 500

 

[JT_MOT]

A late trade today and it turns out I was trading the wrong instrument at ETX... this one closed my trade automatically at the close of the day. Good job I was in profit or that could have been bad... lesson learnt. These spreadbetting accounts are confusing, so many different products for the same thing! I think this move had quite a bit further to go, but I'll take what I got. Nice to have a winner for my first trade at new risk level.

Anyway, can't show the trade in action but this it was this. I actually use MT4 for my charts until I'm in a trade, then monitor them and close them through the broker ones: