S&P 500 & other indexes - intraday. Plus chat

[Pat494]

Anyone get to see the colour of Manus, Guy or Elliot today ? For The Presenters' Index
I have been travelling all morning.

 

[robster970]

It's not a trend day like I was feelin'.

For a start it appears to be (1) going the wrong way to the way I anticipated and (2) is back in yesterdays range.

Leonard is gonna fnckin kill me - better hide.

 

[Pat494]

It's not a trend day like I was feelin'.

For a start it appears to be (1) going the wrong way to the way I anticipated and (2) is back in yesterdays range.

Leonard is gonna fnckin kill me - better hide.

Lucky you are probably not with Peregrine !

Another company lacking integrity by the sound of it !

 

[Pat494]

'
'Endless growth is impossible in a world of finite resources.'

I also read a very convincing piece along similar lines about how our efforts to solve poverty will undo us all. To put it in a nutshell, if everyone in africa suddenly had the same spending power that we have, what would happen to the price of food, oil etc. So the crux of it all was that the developing world - merely through the very act of developing - will eventually make us top heavy as an empire and brings us to our knees. Capitalism - the greatest ponzi scheme of them all?

I really wonder if some in the 3rd world are trying hard enough. Terrorism isn't even an argument. A pity they don't get sensible and help build the flood defences up. But oh no they waste the money given them to buy guns. On the world service a Pakistani official was complaining that the defences haven't been built up in his area. The ditches are still clogged with mud and water from last year.
Then Cameron is on his feet saying Britain gives per GDP more than any other country ! Funelling money into the third world black hole, costs UK jobs and mostly gets wasted over there.

 

[scholfield]

I wonder whatever happened to N. Rothschild & co. The enfants terribles of T2W.

I think 'Rothschild' admitted to pretty much blowing up his account when he last returned briefly?
I used to assume he had some sort of holy grail, the way he dismissed everyone's trading methods. Trading off of much more useful information that charts and the DOM etc. I guess not, though!

 

[DionysusToast]

Hlaf drnuk

 

[DionysusToast]

4 ticks & out... boredom trade complete...

 

[JT_MOT]

Today's trade: sell at 1359.1, buy at 1334.2

If i'm honest I entered the trade too early, I was attempting to set a market order but messed it up and opened a trade instead! I was still happy with the level though and it did indeed turn as hoped... this big drop had been coming, you could see it. And I still think we have a lot futher to go over the next few days (depending on news). We shall see.

Also, made up for bad entry with good exit. Getting out at the right time seems to be one of my strengths. Got to tread that fine line between patience and greed

Hit a milestone in my account today, risk will be going up to the next level

 

[JT_MOT]

Today's trade

Rob, I'm no expert in your method but this one seems more like your usual style. Quick question though... why do you always exit the trade fully and not scale out? I'm sure you have probably tried this before and have some stats to back up your decision, just curious.

I'm not saying one is right and one is wrong, as you can see I also usually exit fully at once as well, but sometimes I'll exit half and move stop to break even if news is coming that I'm not sure about for example.

 

[robster970]

Rob, I'm no expert in your method but this one seems more like your usual style. Quick question though... why do you always exit the trade fully and not scale out? I'm sure you have probably tried this before and have some stats to back up your decision, just curious.

I'm not saying one is right and one is wrong, as you can see I also usually exit fully at once as well, but sometimes I'll exit half and move stop to break even if news is coming that I'm not sure about for example.

It's just a preference - I like being either in or out. It is one of the few things that I haven't applied any science to.

I did try to add in for a while but I was cr@p at it and ratcheted up commissions with little to show for it as I kept closing positions prematurely. You can see from my exit efficiency and MFE that running a trade is not my strength. If it was I would probably be able to add another 25% non-compounded to my returns but alas, I am what I am.

DT is particularly adept at scaling out - he's probably worked it all out with protractors and stuff.

BTW, for your trade today:

 

[robster970]

4 ticks & out... boredom trade complete...

You're just showing off now. It takes me all my effort to get 4 ticks and you manage to do it whilst battered and for teh lulz.

 

[robster970]

Thanks Rob - dropped me right in it if it's wrong !

Don't mind if it's right though - looking good so far............

BTW 4 ticks profit before commission ? Can't be much left after commission. You haven't contracted the " yips " have you ? A golfing disease, you know, when trying to putt.

$4.odd per contract commissions on 4 ticks is a net profit of $45.odd per contract - it's a cost of < 9% on the trade.

I've always traded like this Pat. I've always had the yips

 

[JT_MOT]

It's just a preference - I like being either in or out. It is one of the few things that I haven't applied any science to.

I did try to add in for a while but I was cr@p at it and ratcheted up commissions with little to show for it as I kept closing positions prematurely. You can see from my exit efficiency and MFE that running a trade is not my strength. If it was I would probably be able to add another 25% non-compounded to my returns but alas, I am what I am.

DT is particularly adept at scaling out - he's probably worked it all out with protractors and stuff.

BTW, for your trade today:

Haha thanks.

OK cool, that makes sense. I know exactly what you mean as I prefer to be in ou out as well. I didn't even think about comissions either.

I look forward to DT's geometric breakdown of exits It is a very interesting topic though, people focus so much on entry but exit is probably more important and less discussed.

 

[JT_MOT]

 

[robster970]

Haha thanks.

OK cool, that makes sense. I know exactly what you mean as I prefer to be in our out as well. I didn't even think about comissions either.

I look forward to DT's geometri breakdown of exits It is a very interesting topic though, people focus so much on entry but exit is probably more important and less discussed.

There is some general madness to the way I trade but I'll do a more lengthy post tomorrow specifically about that and auction rotations.

 

[Pat494]

12:00am AUD RBA Deputy Gov Lowe Speaks
12:50am JPY Tertiary Industry Activity m/m 0.7% 0.2% -0.2%
12:50am JPY CGPI y/y -1.3% -0.9% -0.7%
1:30am AUD Westpac Consumer Sentiment 3.7% 0.3%
2:30am AUD Home Loans m/m -1.2% 0.8% 0.5%
7:00am EUR German Final CPI m/m -0.1% -0.1% -0.1%
7:00am JPY Prelim Machine Tool Orders y/y -15.5% -3.0%
Tentative EUR German 10-y Bond Auction 1.52|1.4
1:30pm CAD Trade Balance -0.5B -0.4B
1:30pm USD Trade Balance -48.5B -50.1B
3:00pm USD Wholesale Inventories m/m 0.4% 0.6%
3:30pm USD Crude Oil Inventories -1.3M -4.3M
6:00pm USD 10-y Bond Auction 1.62|3.1
7:00pm USD FOMC Meeting Minutes
11:30pm NZD Business NZ Manufacturing Index 55.7
11:45pm NZD FPI m/m 0.3%

 

[Pat494]

The Presenters' Index for Wednesday 11th July


Linda - purple - neutral
Manus - blue - up
Guy - blue - up
Dom - red - down
Scarlet - red - down
Stephanie - orange - down
Erik - blue - up

Sorry I may have missed some because of poor reception here


Just a bit of fun to see if the presenters dress subconsciously to forecast the day's close. The blue end of the spectrum for up +1 and the red end for down -1. Black, white, grey, purple are neutral and score 0 .
Previous winners
Deirdre
Erik

 

[Pat494]

Maryam and Francine for Europe are in the lead so far this week. The US team are trailing and there I was thinking they had an unfair advantage going later !

 

[Pat494]

The rumour is that they are looking for staff at Barclays ?

 

[barjon]

................ people focus so much on entry but exit is probably more important ................

Don't trade your thing so excuse me me for butting in, but I think that's dead right.

I've proved time and again that I'm a dead loss when it comes to "discretionary" exits and all that scaling business. So I'm "all in, all out" and exit within target zone come what may. I don't have an exit efficiency measure but, if I did, it would relate to where price got to within that zone compared to where I got out.

I miss many a strong move when price hurtles on past my target but I'm not bothered. My overall strategy is predicated on consistent gains averaging something not much above 2 R:R and slow but steady growth in my account.