S&P 500 & other indexes - intraday. Plus chat

[DionysusToast]

Rob - good analysis and a very good way to think about it. Food for thought for sure.

If it does break down and there is plenty of volume accompanying the breakdown, I'll look for a short.

I'll only play off my levels if the trading volume is normal. Once we get OTF players entering the market, I become perhaps over-cautious about trading against them.

I won't take a long at the potential bottom. If we are in a trend day, I will trade in that direction until the reversal has already occured. I use flow/swing volume/CD to tell me that a significant amount of counter-trend players are now playing the move back up. I'll then try to get in on a retrace. I miss the reversal but my experience is that it often takes me multiple shots at catching the bottom by which time I'm trading to make up the losses from those attempts.

 

[robster970]

I get what you are saying about OTF's turning up. Thing is though Pete, the only people who can stop an OTF are bigger OTF's and that in itself gives the game away. As for taking multiple shots, that too is my problem.

 

[Pat494]

Tue
Sep 4 12:00am GBP BRC Retail Sales Monitor y/y -0.4% 0.1%
12:50am JPY Monetary Base y/y 6.5% 9.4% 8.6%
2:00am NZD ANZ Commodity Prices m/m 0.5% -0.4%
2:30am AUD Current Account -11.8B -12.3B -13.0B
2:30am JPY Average Cash Earnings y/y -1.2% -0.3% -0.4%
5:30am AUD Cash Rate 3.50% 3.50% 3.50%
5:30am AUD RBA Rate Statement
6:45am CHF GDP q/q -0.1% 0.2% 0.5%
8:00am EUR Spanish Unemployment Change 38.2K -27.8K
9:30am GBP Construction PMI 49.0 50.1 50.9
10:00am EUR PPI m/m 0.4% 0.3% -0.5%
2:00pm USD Final Manufacturing PMI 51.9 51.9
3:00pm USD ISM Manufacturing PMI 50.0 49.8
3:00pm USD Construction Spending m/m 0.4% 0.4%
3:00pm USD ISM Manufacturing Prices 46.4 39.5
All Day USD Total Vehicle Sales 14.1M 14.1M

 

[DionysusToast]

September 3rd

Asia/Europe slightly down. Overnight volume is low.
9:00 – Manu PMI
10:00 ISM Manu PMI, Construction Spendin, Vehicle sales.

Market is still in the same range it’s been for 3 weeks:

Expecting a slow start with the news @ 10am and unless that news is huge, I don't expect much. The open will be in yesterday range, so expecting a rotational day. Just hope it's not 3-4 point range.

What is interesting is the 1395 area.

I will be cautious here. With so many bounces off 1395.25-50, I'd say this area is ripe for a bit of manipulation. So if we don't have overwhelming volume, as much as I'd like to play a bounce there, I'm going to be cautious of it.

Yesterdays range was small, so I'm looking more towards Fridays high/low for a reaction.

Overnight inventory is short, so will look for a move up off the open.

Longs : 1402.50, 1397, 1395.25, 1387.75, 1383
Shorts - 1425, 1422.75, 1416.75, 1412-13, 1409.50, 1408.50

 

[robster970]

Re: 1395

Switch a chart onto RTH rather than exchange time, 30min candles, look at how the volume built up there over 7/8/9/10 and 13 Aug.......

How much liquidity is there to be used/abused?

 

[DionysusToast]

Re: 1395

Switch a chart onto RTH rather than exchange time, 30min candles, look at how the volume built up there over 7/8/9/10 and 13 Aug.......

How much liquidity is there to be used/abused?

I think there's stops there but what does it for me is that short term traders will be looking to enter there adding more liquidity below.

 

[robster970]

3 minutes to showtime and I'm in the mood today.

 

[robster970]

-6 ticks

 

[scose-no-doubt]

Show me how much you love me, Bobby.

 

[robster970]

Show me how much you love me, Bobby.

Mary J. Blige - Family Affair - YouTube

 

[robster970]

Long 98.25, filled at 15:18

Covered 98.00 @ 15:26

Reason is that it is base building rather than just absorbing sell orderflow

 

[kimo'sabby]

lot of bids @ 97.00...

 

[kimo'sabby]

As soon 97.00/96.75 traded, bids were pulled and the market goes offer.

 

[robster970]

Long 97.25 @ 15:47

Stopped out at 15:57 - thought this would hold down here.

e2a - today is a good example of me kind of recognising when there is good turning point but mistiming the entry and stop. I think my problem is that I'm probably too hasty to enter on them and get rattled out. Patience is probably what's missing, not recognition.

 

[kimo'sabby]

Long 97.25 @ 15:47

Stopped out at 15:57 - thought this would hold down here.

e2a - today is a good example of me kind of recognising when there is good turning point but mistiming the entry and stop. I think my problem is that I'm probably too hasty to enter on them and get rattled out. Patience is probably what's missing, not recognition.

IMHO. At least u know u were 2 hasty. The market traded quite heavily on the bid between 1395 and 1400. You hit it on the way in 98.25 (off top of head), better to hit it low 96.00 ish or on the way up @ 99.00 ish. This is something i look for mate, hope u don't mind me saying.

 

[DionysusToast]

That was indeed a dirty bottom!

 

[kimo'sabby]

That was indeed a dirty bottom!

I honestly thought it was pretty much 'textbook'...filthy word!

 

[robster970]

IMHO. At least u know u were 2 hasty. The market traded quite heavily on the bid between 1395 and 1400. You hit it on the way in 98.25 (off top of head), better to hit it low 96.00 ish or on the way up @ 99.00 ish. This is something i look for mate, hope u don't mind me saying.

All advice welcome - trading this way is fledgling for me right now.

Incidentally one thing that did throw me to mistime the entry was I was expecting this to be a test around 96 and then bounce off rather than consolidation after a sell-off. In hindsight and looking at the volume traded there in the past I cannot see why this area would not have traded like it did but in the heat of the moment and with a degree of poor planning, the the trigger finger got itchy and I paid the price. Trading like this is very, very different to how I trade the open - much more measured, considered, longer time to make choices.

 

[kimo'sabby]

All advice welcome - trading this way is fledgling for me right now.

Incidentally one thing that did throw me to mistime the entry was I was expecting this to be a test around 96 and then bounce off rather than consolidation after a sell-off. In hindsight and looking at the volume traded there in the past I cannot see why this area would not have traded like it did but in the heat of the moment and with a degree of poor planning, the the trigger finger got itchy and I paid the price. Trading like this is very, very different to how I trade the open - much more measured, considered, longer time to make choices.

Volume is a key factor mate. By the time the market pushed out of the range 95.00 - 1400.00, it had done a mil contracts.

 

[robster970]

Volume is a key factor mate. By the time the market pushed out of the range 95.00 - 1400.00, it had done a mil contracts.

I didn't mean that vol - I meant that 95-96 area had been very heavily traded in mid-august and was and area (liquidity wise) to see the kind of 3hr consolidation we saw yesterday. I felt vol going into the area was commensurate with the move out of range - it was how it reacted down there. Make sense?