wackypete2
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2385.5 
Peter
Peter
P
postman
2338.68 for me thanks.
sminicooper
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2325.23 Pse.
Atilla
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Good luck to you all for Quarter 2 of the SPX-500 weekly forecasting competition.
Spring is here and the sun is out, birds chirping away. Joys of life.
We have almost an even spread between bulls and bears. Average is a bear and Weighted is a bull. CV leading the bulls against PingPong who's just a little more bearish. Much uncertainty here imo. :whistling
Enjoy all that you do
Spring is here and the sun is out, birds chirping away. Joys of life.
We have almost an even spread between bulls and bears. Average is a bear and Weighted is a bull. CV leading the bulls against PingPong who's just a little more bearish. Much uncertainty here imo. :whistling
Enjoy all that you do
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Pat494
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I am right on the button at the mo. Peaking a bit early though.
Atilla
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Pat494
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Can't watch - SPX @ 2354.
Heading down I think... :whistling
Aaaaaaaaa cute doggey !
Heading up hopefully. If Ronald stops firing missiles at people ?
P
postman
He shoots, he scores, goooooooaaaaaaaallllllllllll :clap: :clap: :clap: :clap:
Atilla
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They're off for the SPX500 Quarter 2 - competition.
Atilla the old dog takes the early lead with his 4th gold medal.
Average takes silver followed by Jeffre who takes the bronze.
As dear fellow esteemed forecasters have done such interesting write ups for our new format, I'd like to think about it and put some scribbles together on the mechanics of the sensational nailed up forecasting box tomorrow.
Have a g8 evening
Atilla the old dog takes the early lead with his 4th gold medal.
Average takes silver followed by Jeffre who takes the bronze.
As dear fellow esteemed forecasters have done such interesting write ups for our new format, I'd like to think about it and put some scribbles together on the mechanics of the sensational nailed up forecasting box tomorrow.
Have a g8 evening
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Atilla
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I really enjoy reviewing the markets over the weekend for the SPX competition forecast and taking a long term view and drilling in to shorter time frames. Start off monthly stretching back years and then view weekly and daily CS charts.
Big fan of Pivot Points and Fib levels. Especially when they coincide. I mark those points as strong S/R where price can turn. Often it does leading to consolidation and scalping opportunities.
I do have a ritual in the mornings of checking Asian markets. If Asia has done well overnight and European markets have a good positive start then in the absence of any negative news or key data release, US markets will follow that trend. EU markets will then tail on to US market and add some more. There are FTSE and SPX heat maps too which I glance at just to add some colours on how I feel.
During daily moves, as soon as one PP level is breached I've often found market will just continue to the next PP S/R level. If a PP level is not breached market can tail off and fall back down again. Here based on MAs just follow the trend. More often than not it's usally at PP levels where consolidation takes place. So they make excellent Entry/Exit points imo.
I hold the view there are three key influences on the markets and they can all have different weights at different times.
- Fundamentals
- News
- Technical Analysis
We've had lots of debates here on T2W about the significance of these three approaches and in my experienced view all three can move markets.
So here is me applying this approach and thoughts to SPX weekly forecast.
Starting off with FA, we all knows markets are at highs and equities trading on above average PE levels. These earnings can't be sustained imo. So considering global debt and global threats to free trading appearing all over the place perception is one of gloom not boom.
Then there is news. I find Forex Factory calendar is best and glance here for the week ahead. Thursday & Friday's tend to be key for CB and important data release from the US. Here I look for high impact red flagged announcements. So on the 13th and 14th we have key US unemployment claim and inflation numbers released which will both have some impact on US econ health and possible interest rate moves whether increasing or reducing probability for raising them.
The unknown are ME and geopolitical tensions. These seem to carry less weight these days as markets getting used to them and proxy wars are less important. US and Russia squaring off over Syria however is a much bigger deal and may adversely impact sentiment which is another big bear signal to me.
Rounding off with TA - I've seen PPs and Fib retrace points based on arbitrary lines on charts as being around 2342 & 2325. I'm going with the lower numbers because we've made LHs since beg of March. I couldn't make up my mind so decided to go with mid-point well balanced number that looks kool :cheesy:
2332
I did mention the sensational nailed up DIY box and today I'm going to reveal a big secret. Honest guys I've used this forecasting method before where I was torn between decisions. The DIY Box contains a random function generator. I punch in my highest and lowest forecast and turn the handle. Out pops a number.
Here is the secret formula =RANDBETWEEN(2325,2342) which produced the number 2338. You too can cut and paste that into your spreadsheet and have your very own DIY random number generator for any two levels you think are reasonable.
G8 stuff. Enjoy all that you dooooo....
Big fan of Pivot Points and Fib levels. Especially when they coincide. I mark those points as strong S/R where price can turn. Often it does leading to consolidation and scalping opportunities.
I do have a ritual in the mornings of checking Asian markets. If Asia has done well overnight and European markets have a good positive start then in the absence of any negative news or key data release, US markets will follow that trend. EU markets will then tail on to US market and add some more. There are FTSE and SPX heat maps too which I glance at just to add some colours on how I feel.
During daily moves, as soon as one PP level is breached I've often found market will just continue to the next PP S/R level. If a PP level is not breached market can tail off and fall back down again. Here based on MAs just follow the trend. More often than not it's usally at PP levels where consolidation takes place. So they make excellent Entry/Exit points imo.
I hold the view there are three key influences on the markets and they can all have different weights at different times.
- Fundamentals
- News
- Technical Analysis
We've had lots of debates here on T2W about the significance of these three approaches and in my experienced view all three can move markets.
So here is me applying this approach and thoughts to SPX weekly forecast.
Starting off with FA, we all knows markets are at highs and equities trading on above average PE levels. These earnings can't be sustained imo. So considering global debt and global threats to free trading appearing all over the place perception is one of gloom not boom.
Then there is news. I find Forex Factory calendar is best and glance here for the week ahead. Thursday & Friday's tend to be key for CB and important data release from the US. Here I look for high impact red flagged announcements. So on the 13th and 14th we have key US unemployment claim and inflation numbers released which will both have some impact on US econ health and possible interest rate moves whether increasing or reducing probability for raising them.
The unknown are ME and geopolitical tensions. These seem to carry less weight these days as markets getting used to them and proxy wars are less important. US and Russia squaring off over Syria however is a much bigger deal and may adversely impact sentiment which is another big bear signal to me.
Rounding off with TA - I've seen PPs and Fib retrace points based on arbitrary lines on charts as being around 2342 & 2325. I'm going with the lower numbers because we've made LHs since beg of March. I couldn't make up my mind so decided to go with mid-point well balanced number that looks kool :cheesy:
2332
I did mention the sensational nailed up DIY box and today I'm going to reveal a big secret. Honest guys I've used this forecasting method before where I was torn between decisions. The DIY Box contains a random function generator. I punch in my highest and lowest forecast and turn the handle. Out pops a number.
Here is the secret formula =RANDBETWEEN(2325,2342) which produced the number 2338. You too can cut and paste that into your spreadsheet and have your very own DIY random number generator for any two levels you think are reasonable.
G8 stuff. Enjoy all that you dooooo....
Last edited:
Oscar Reed
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2335 please
wackypete2
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2375.5
Peter
Peter
Signalcalc
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2366 please
pingpong1965
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2325 please
