The US Presidential Election is the only show in town this week as markets shift their gaze to the key swing states in what’s become a tighter race than many had expected only a couple of weeks ago.
Markets seem to have priced in a win for Hillary Clinton – which is seen as broadly supportive for equities and the US dollar.
But with the email scandal back in focus Trump could yet emerge as the victor and markets are sensitive to this possibility anew. The VIX ‘fear gauge’, which measures US equity market volatility, has risen from below 13 to around 16 in recent days. Meanwhile the Mexican peso, seen as a proxy trade for the result because of Trump’s desire to rip up Nafta, has fallen since the middle of October.
The election takes place on Tuesday, November 8th, with the result expected to be known by the time European markets open on Wednesday. Traders can expect plenty of volatility as the election nears - the Veterans Day bank holiday on Friday will be a relief.