Richard Hill Forex Net Trap

[Wagtail]

Started to test 2009 data for NT using 40 stop instead of 30, and gave up after 3 months. I found 21 stop outs at -30 in this period and every one of them would have been a -40 if the 40 stop was in place. So -210pips worse than NT for this period.

So original NT still outperforms all variants. It seems that Richard Hill certainly did his homework before deciding on his stop and limit levels.

W.

www.cabletraderfx.blogspot.com

 

[goldfinger777]

Started to test 2009 data for NT using 40 stop instead of 30, and gave up after 3 months. I found 21 stop outs at -30 in this period and every one of them would have been a -40 if the 40 stop was in place. So -210pips worse than NT for this period.

So original NT still outperforms all variants. It seems that Richard Hill certainly did his homework before deciding on his stop and limit levels.

W.

www.cabletraderfx.blogspot.com

Thanks for backtesting Wagtail, very interesting results. I must admit after the days we had this month when the market just about hit the 30 stop only to reverse again I thought raising the stop to 40 would've been beneficial in the long term, but obviously not!

Your valuable backtesting is starting to confirm that NT in its current form is actually the most profitable variant long term, but I think that -80 pt loss in June really spooked a lot of us.

So it looks like one of the main disadvantages of NT is actually proving to be not so much its STOP/LIMIT combo, but rather its set and forget nature. There's nothing worse than a trade that goes into profit only to reverse and end up stopping you out. I think if any part of NT needs improving, this is it. So whether we place a trailing stop or just set an alert when it gets to say +25 and then move our stop to +10 or something, it can only be a good thing. And as most NTers on this forum seem to sit and watch the trades most days anyway, they obviously don't need the set and forget nature so may as well take profits while they're on offer!

Just a thought anyway. Thanks again for the backtesting Wagtail, extremely useful.

 

[Denman]

Yes absolutely. I find that whenever I demo any new ideas, because it's not real money, I tend to take stupid trades and rush into set ups that are not ideal. So making the results public gives a sense of accountability, so much so that I've found myself caring more about these results than my live trading!

W.

www.cabletraderfx.blogspot.com

Hi Wagtail, very much enjoyed your link, good luck.

 

[peterf1966]

Thanks for backtesting Wagtail, very interesting results. I must admit after the days we had this month when the market just about hit the 30 stop only to reverse again I thought raising the stop to 40 would've been beneficial in the long term, but obviously not!

Your valuable backtesting is starting to confirm that NT in its current form is actually the most profitable variant long term, but I think that -80 pt loss in June really spooked a lot of us.

So it looks like one of the main disadvantages of NT is actually proving to be not so much its STOP/LIMIT combo, but rather its set and forget nature. There's nothing worse than a trade that goes into profit only to reverse and end up stopping you out. I think if any part of NT needs improving, this is it. So whether we place a trailing stop or just set an alert when it gets to say +25 and then move our stop to +10 or something, it can only be a good thing. And as most NTers on this forum seem to sit and watch the trades most days anyway, they obviously don't need the set and forget nature so may as well take profits while they're on offer!

Just a thought anyway. Thanks again for the backtesting Wagtail, extremely useful.

After 8 am, and +25 - trail to B/E, later than that and around +35, trail to a profit of 15 or 20. Ive been doing that since before the variants, the first time I noticed a +48 situation become a loser.
Discipline is probably the most important thing in this.

 

[goldfinger777]

After 8 am, and +25 - trail to B/E, later than that and around +35, trail to a profit of 15 or 20. Ive been doing that since before the variants, the first time I noticed a +48 situation become a loser.
Discipline is probably the most important thing in this.

How did you fare in June using this method? Did you end the month in the positive?

 

[mark120169]

Started to test 2009 data for NT using 40 stop instead of 30, and gave up after 3 months. I found 21 stop outs at -30 in this period and every one of them would have been a -40 if the 40 stop was in place. So -210pips worse than NT for this period.

So original NT still outperforms all variants. It seems that Richard Hill certainly did his homework before deciding on his stop and limit levels.

W.

www.cabletraderfx.blogspot.com

So three months is 12-13 weeks. This is the funny thing about backtesting. Unless you cover a whole period or go back as far as you can you don't get a big picture. Because my live / backtesting for the last 9 weeks (Since 17/5/10) shows NT40 far better than VNT by +146.2 pips.

And I'm willing to beleive that this picture will improve over the next 4 weeks to mid August.

I must ask does back testing have to be done manually? Our is it simple to program the peramiters of NT or variants and do it automatically.

M

 

[Trader333]

And I'm willing to beleive that this picture will improve over the next 4 weeks to mid August.

Why do you believe this ?

I must ask does back testing have to be done manually? Our is it simple to program the peramiters of NT or variants and do it automatically.

It can be done completely automatically as long as you have clear rules. If there is any discretion involved then it cannot be done this way.


Paul

 

[Wagtail]

So three months is 12-13 weeks. This is the funny thing about backtesting. Unless you cover a whole period or go back as far as you can you don't get a big picture. Because my live / backtesting for the last 9 weeks (Since 17/5/10) shows NT40 far better than VNT by +146.2 pips.

And I'm willing to beleive that this picture will improve over the next 4 weeks to mid August.

I must ask does back testing have to be done manually? Our is it simple to program the peramiters of NT or variants and do it automatically.

M

Yes, 3 months is nowhere near enough, but it's enough for me to decide I don't want to spend any more of my time on it as NT is only a small part of my trading, and I'm still happy with it. I'm sure there are improvements that can be made, but for a method with a win rate of 55% or so, I think risk:reward is key.

I've only ever done manual backtesting so have no experience of automated testing.

Thanks GF, nice to be appreciated.

W.

www.cabletraderfx.blogspot.com

 

[mark120169]

Yes, 3 months is nowhere near enough, but it's enough for me to decide I don't want to spend any more of my time on it as NT is only a small part of my trading, and I'm still happy with it. I'm sure there are improvements that can be made, but for a method with a win rate of 55% or so, I think risk:reward is key.

I've only ever done manual backtesting so have no experience of automated testing.

Thanks GF, nice to be appreciated.

W.

www.cabletraderfx.blogspot.com

Well done then Wags as manual backtesting takes an age, and I guess because of the NT entry rules of the MA that can't be automated without serious software programing. 3 weeks took me long enough over 10 variants, doing it live daily is much quicker.

I have to say for GF777 my data so far still shows INT ahead @ 225 pips followed by NT40 @ 199 pips, hence this is why I TNT these two ATM 50/50, with VNT running at 53 pips approx for me it's a no brainer until the tables turn.

Once I see NT results pulling ahead of NT 40 & INT I will probalbly switch a period to VNT again. Backtesting is the past you cant trade, livetesting as you go daily lets me see a day by day picture of whats working in the current Forex market.

This Paul is why I believe in the next 4 weeks NT40 will keep pulling ahead of NT.

M

 

[beaumont]

Where are you downloading the history to?

Its not giving me an option of downloading to anywhere in particular - I hit the download button , a download warning comes up telling me that I'm going to" download data from Metaquotes Software Corp but my a/c is with Alpari(UK) Ltd trade server so the data might be different" , so I download anyway and all that happens is the tabulated data goes back to March 2000, but no sign of any charts. I suppose I could backtest using that data alone, but manually working out the MA would be hugely time-consuming!

 

[pseudo straddle]

Its not giving me an option of downloading to anywhere in particular - I hit the download button , a download warning comes up telling me that I'm going to" download data from Metaquotes Software Corp but my a/c is with Alpari(UK) Ltd trade server so the data might be different" , so I download anyway and all that happens is the tabulated data goes back to March 2000, but no sign of any charts. I suppose I could backtest using that data alone, but manually working out the MA would be hugely time-consuming!

You can then ' export ' the data - as a csv file. Which can be imported to Excel or OOcalc. This is where you need a spreadsheet expert to manipulate the data!

 

[beaumont]

You can then ' export ' the data - as a csv file. Which can be imported to Excel or OOcalc. This is where you need a spreadsheet expert to manipulate the data!

OK, well thanks for that, I did'nt realise it was that simple! I guess I'll just stick with back-testing as far as Oct 2008, but thanks for the info anyway.

 

[peterf1966]

How did you fare in June using this method? Did you end the month in the positive?

June was positive - but due to a combination of all sorts,Vanilla NT, INTing MNTing and trailing, stopping in longer after 8.30 occaisionally. I know it's remiss of me, but I've not really been keeping a proper record of what produced what, I know all that must change, and will do, when the dicipline I mentioned will be forced on me after next week.

Trailing is more a psycological thing, protecting gain situations from losses - it might well be mathematically irrelevant in the long run, if trailing too tightly wipes out potential profit - but then only actual profit counts. I'd rather bank 35 pips, and be happy than fret about the missed 15, for example.

The backtest of NT40 stop v NT 30 stop that Mark and Wagtail have done is interesting, different strategies will work best at different times - maybe that Mark keeping an eye on things daily will prove which direction to go, but I suspect it's going to hard to know when exactly you abandon one strat for another?

 

[Denman]

Evening All.
Has anyone heard of the term 'Rolling Over' on igindex?
On Fri' eve at about 8:15pm I wanted to close a trade (short on EUR/USD). I was about 16ps in profit but it was slowly dropping.I decided to close the trade but when I clicked I was unable to do so. I phoned the 'helpline' but to no avail. then phoned another Tel' number (from IGs welcome pack) and after a while, pips deminishing, an Australian women answered and said that it was during 'Roll Over' and things should resume to normal soon. I tried and tried again but to no avail. I logged out (laptop) then logged in on the iphone and managed to close the trade (very luckily with 24ps profit!) But it could have gone so wrong...
Kind regards
ps: ST, any news yet on the 'Nutters' thread yet? thanx

 

[pseudo straddle]

Evening All.
Has anyone heard of the term 'Rolling Over' on igindex?
On Fri' eve at about 8:15pm I wanted to close a trade (short on EUR/USD). I was about 16ps in profit but it was slowly dropping.I decided to close the trade but when I clicked I was unable to do so. I phoned the 'helpline' but to no avail. then phoned another Tel' number (from IGs welcome pack) and after a while, pips deminishing, an Australian women answered and said that it was during 'Roll Over' and things should resume to normal soon. I tried and tried again but to no avail. I logged out (laptop) then logged in on the iphone and managed to close the trade (very luckily with 24ps profit!) But it could have gone so wrong...
Kind regards
ps: ST, any news yet on the 'Nutters' thread yet? thanx

link to igdex help & support

 

[rob the bank]

gbp/usd 19/07/10

P: 1.5332, P: 1.5342
R1: 1.5386, R1: 1.5405, R2: 1.5500, R2: 1.5510, R3: 1.5554, R3: 1.5573
S1: 1.5237, S1: 1.5218, S2: 1.5174, S2: 1.5164, S3: 1.5069, S3: 1.5050

 

[Dubai]

Morning all, fresh week ahead. Wonder what lies ahead?

 

[Tanguero]

1.5325 is 61.8 of Friday's range, strong resistance there. If it goes up there, let's short it.

 

[insidergates]

looks like a buy today but only just

 

[jbu001]

VNT gives a very weak long trade at 15325. Anyone taking today?