Richard Hill Forex Net Trap

peterf1966 said:
ETX needs order price to be 5 +/- pips from current. But I liked it otherwise, it seemed to work faster than IG. No mobile dealer option , so I'm back on IG. Anyone know of other S/B providers that have mobile dealer support? CMC? Cap Spreads?
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CMC markets and SelfTrade both have mobile apps. From memory Self Trade has awful cable speads though, 5 or 6 pips of something. Shocking.

Again from memory CMC markets is the same 3 pip spread as IG on Cable but they told me they have a very good platform like IG hence don't do any "offers", like IG.

M
 
Rugby Trader said:
Yeah I woke up a few minutes late myself and had to enter direct so I don't know if there was any slippage.
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I will post this as I feel I should share it, especially after a few confessions form guys this week. And especially for RT as he stakes 5% per NT trade so getting stopped out must hurt you mate.

I have been running NT40 (Net Trap with a 40 Stop) Since early June. It has a positive RR, 50 win, 40 loss, but has far far better results so far than NT.

A lot of you guys PM me for chats and I know the gang out here now who fessed up to running wider custom stops on NT and are doing much better than VNT traders.

So here are my figures, my estimated RH figures (not comfirmed for this week yet) and RH NT trade matched NT40 results for 9 weeks and some tough periods.

RH VNT +53 pips (Estimated, could be -30 pips worse if he took Tuesday trade)

M120169 NT40+D +238.8 ( And I took a -40 Tuesday!)

NT40 matched to RH VNT trades +199.2 pips (Estimated, could be -30 pips worse if he took Tuesday trade)

As you can see VNT gets stopped out far far to often. I know I will get shouted at for MM over 2% @ 2.67% for 40 stop but, there is a solution.

If you scale your bet down to 75% of your normal NT bet you can run a 40 stop and maintain 2% MM.

So @ £10 pip VNT 30 stop 2% MM would have made you £530 over 9 weeks. But NT40 @ 75% £7.50 pip 40 stop 2% MM would have made you £1498.50.

So RT for you mate, why not try a 40 stop and reduce stake to 3.75%. I will happily give you the 9 weeks of 40 stop results if you want to work out where you might have been pips wise.

Wagtail, sorry to impose buddy but can you BT NT40 when you get a moment and post some results vs NT.

If it returns 33% or greater pips than NT it would be more profitable @ 2% MM. Ir certainly has recent form.

M
 
mark120169 said:
I will post this as I feel I should share it, especially after a few confessions form guys this week. And especially for RT as he stakes 5% per NT trade so getting stopped out must hurt you mate.

I have been running NT40 (Net Trap with a 40 Stop) Since early June. It has a positive RR, 50 win, 40 loss, but has far far better results so far than NT.

A lot of you guys PM me for chats and I know the gang out here now who fessed up to running wider custom stops on NT and are doing much better than VNT traders.

So here are my figures, my estimated RH figures (not comfirmed for this week yet) and RH NT trade matched NT40 results for 9 weeks and some tough periods.

RH VNT +53 pips (Estimated, could be -30 pips worse if he took Tuesday trade)

M120169 NT40+D +238.8 ( And I took a -40 Tuesday!)

NT40 matched to RH VNT trades +199.2 pips (Estimated, could be -30 pips worse if he took Tuesday trade)

As you can see VNT gets stopped out far far to often. I know I will get shouted at for MM over 2% @ 2.67% for 40 stop but, there is a solution.

If you scale your bet down to 75% of your normal NT bet you can run a 40 stop and maintain 2% MM.

So @ £10 pip VNT 30 stop 2% MM would have made you £530 over 9 weeks. But NT40 @ 75% £7.50 pip 40 stop 2% MM would have made you £1498.50.

So RT for you mate, why not try a 40 stop and reduce stake to 3.75%. I will happily give you the 9 weeks of 40 stop results if you want to work out where you might have been pips wise.

Wagtail, sorry to impose buddy but can you BT NT40 when you get a moment and post some results vs NT.

If it returns 33% or greater pips than NT it would be more profitable @ 2% MM. Ir certainly has recent form.

M
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Don't think I've ever traded Vanilla NT ,but been waiting for Graemes forum before making some suggestions public , my results are substantialy ahead of the official
version ,and it really doesn't take much to avoid some of these losses , as you have pointed out using a more realistic sl is going to help ,as is getting wise to these early
day shakeouts. Given that in the real FX markets there will be heaps over night and early day positions similar to those of Vanilla NT folks just waiting for the market makers to run their stops, not 3 ducks ,but sitting ducks.
 
mark120169 said:
Not sure who on here is aware of this but there is a great long term Forex analysis guy on htese T2W forums called Windsor Brokers.

He posts updates to the major pairs daily, sometimes twice daily and it includes Cable.

This isn't a daily or a weekly but long term support and resistance and it is quite accurate for helping planning stops and targets. Book mark it and check it and use it in conjunction with shorter CAMs or pivots. He is often quite accurate.

link here for yesterdays results. He will post todays soon,

http://www.trade2win.com/boards/for...-short-term-technical-analysis-majors-20.html

M
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Mark, can you check that link again as it says ' page not found' ??
Thanks
G
 
mark120169 said:
I have been running NT40 (Net Trap with a 40 Stop) Since early June. It has a positive RR, 50 win, 40 loss, but has far far better results so far than NT.

M
Click to expand...
Interesting. We are moving in the opposite directions, I try to find ways how to reduce the SL, ideally to a default 20, while risking the same amount on each trade.

My gut feeling is that you should extend you TP proportionally to 67, would be good if Waggie could test that as well.
 
mark120169 said:
I will post this as I feel I should share it, especially after a few confessions form guys this week. And especially for RT as he stakes 5% per NT trade so getting stopped out must hurt you mate.

I have been running NT40 (Net Trap with a 40 Stop) Since early June. It has a positive RR, 50 win, 40 loss, but has far far better results so far than NT.

A lot of you guys PM me for chats and I know the gang out here now who fessed up to running wider custom stops on NT and are doing much better than VNT traders.

So here are my figures, my estimated RH figures (not comfirmed for this week yet) and RH NT trade matched NT40 results for 9 weeks and some tough periods.

RH VNT +53 pips (Estimated, could be -30 pips worse if he took Tuesday trade)

M120169 NT40+D +238.8 ( And I took a -40 Tuesday!)

NT40 matched to RH VNT trades +199.2 pips (Estimated, could be -30 pips worse if he took Tuesday trade)

As you can see VNT gets stopped out far far to often. I know I will get shouted at for MM over 2% @ 2.67% for 40 stop but, there is a solution.

If you scale your bet down to 75% of your normal NT bet you can run a 40 stop and maintain 2% MM.

So @ £10 pip VNT 30 stop 2% MM would have made you £530 over 9 weeks. But NT40 @ 75% £7.50 pip 40 stop 2% MM would have made you £1498.50.

So RT for you mate, why not try a 40 stop and reduce stake to 3.75%. I will happily give you the 9 weeks of 40 stop results if you want to work out where you might have been pips wise.

Wagtail, sorry to impose buddy but can you BT NT40 when you get a moment and post some results vs NT.

If it returns 33% or greater pips than NT it would be more profitable @ 2% MM. Ir certainly has recent form.

M
Click to expand...

Nice one, You know I hit on the same idea yesterday, and applied it today - strictly didn't need to but too close for my liking, especially if there had have been slippage of even 0.5 pip, that would have been another 30 pips down.
 
What if you have sl of 60 (how many trades dip before at some point in day taking profit.

The above may seem random but most trades enter in negative almost straight away before late becoming postive.
 
thelurker1 said:
What if you have sl of 60 (how many trades dip before at some point in day taking profit.

The above may seem random but most trades enter in negative almost straight away before late becoming postive.
Click to expand...

Then this isn't NT if not closing the trade @ 8.30. I do know NT50 has worse results vs NT40 (but still better than VNT) over the last 9 weeks.

But then the RR is equal.

Doing the above is just using NT to confirm entry then completely custom. IMO 3 Ducks would be better, but you would trade less often.

M
 
SA Trader said:
Mark, can you check that link again as it says ' page not found' ??
Thanks
G
Click to expand...

It still works for me. Anyway most days he posts a new page, here is the link to todays.

http://www.trade2win.com/boards/for...term-technical-analysis-majors-08-15-gmt.html

And this is his cable analysis for today.

GBP/USD

Extended strength from 1.4947/63, to break above 1.5400 level and approach key 1.5500 zone, with 1.5470 seen so far. Clearance of 1.5500/25 would open way for a broader strength, though, risk of a lower top and return to weakness still exists.

Res: 1.5470, 1.5498, 1.5506, 1.5525
Sup: 1.5347, 1.5298, 1.5250, 1.5234



M
 
Tanguero said:
Interesting. We are moving in the opposite directions, I try to find ways how to reduce the SL, ideally to a default 20, while risking the same amount on each trade.

My gut feeling is that you should extend you TP proportionally to 67, would be good if Waggie could test that as well.
Click to expand...

I think this 67 limit could be introduced striaght away on platforms that have trailing stop facilities. What you could do is then if you check the trade at 8am and you are +30 add a T/S Distance 30 Step 10. Set a text alert to let you know if the trade hits +50 where NT would have banked.

If you get this text before 8.30 then you can move your SL to +50 and adjust trailing stop to Distance 10 Step 10.

Then you can either leave it to hit +67 or remove the limt and let the trailing stop run it's course. Either way you will have the NT +50 "Banked" but could gain plenty more pips, especially on those days it rises like a rocket while only dropping back 5-6 pips at a time.

M
 
I was scratching my head thinking why NT being a trend system performed so miserably during this week that was trending so gorgeously? I think I have found the answer: it is not good for the best trends, and there are good reasons for it. The best trends (those pushing up or down more than 150 pips) require strong bases to be formed first, kind of launching pads, or convince enough folks to line up in one direction to swipe them all off in one big move. This results in swings large enough to stop out the Nutters.

Does this mean that you need to widen the SL? Unless you somehow decide that the market in such stage, probably no because those strong trends happen no more than 20% of the time. Most of the other times, the trending moves will be more modest and safely caught by NT without sacrifying your little precious up-to 1.67/1 RR ratio on every trade. I am sure backtesting over a longer period should confirm this.

The more I think about NT the more I like it.

One final thought. I will be treating the "get the Nutters by the nuts" days as a signal to expect a strong trend.
 
mark120169 said:
3 pips. Same spread 24 hrs I beleive. I much prefer IG to ETX platform but ETX does not have slippage on entry, but did get 1 pip slippage on exit to gain £2........which is nice.

But as a platform it's just ok. And I never have a IG problem placing open orders when the NT price is close to the market price. But with ETX have struggled all week. Today would have had to take 422 as an order but ended up opening to market @ 420 instead then scraping the order.

M
Click to expand...

Sounds like you got saved today by going straight in!

I've had an absolutely awful week. Been running HNT for an experiment and so I've lost -120 points in the last 4 days! Very painful. I'm going back to INT, but maybe with a modified stop. I think INT would've lost out twice this week but would've banked +25 today as it did with you. My only saving grace was that I have stuck to 2%MM. Still hurts though, even at 2%!

Looks like July is turning out to be another June results-wise.
 
mark120169 said:
I think this 67 limit could be introduced striaght away on platforms that have trailing stop facilities. What you could do is then if you check the trade at 8am and you are +30 add a T/S Distance 30 Step 10. Set a text alert to let you know if the trade hits +50 where NT would have banked.

If you get this text before 8.30 then you can move your SL to +50 and adjust trailing stop to Distance 10 Step 10.

Then you can either leave it to hit +67 or remove the limt and let the trailing stop run it's course. Either way you will have the NT +50 "Banked" but could gain plenty more pips, especially on those days it rises like a rocket while only dropping back 5-6 pips at a time.

M
Click to expand...

Yeah a bigger limit only works if you're trading beyond 8:30am. I only have results going back to beginning of June, but certainly since then there have been ZERO +67 or greater days by 8:30am (based on VNT).

I'm extremely interested by your research into NT40. There's also a case for making the LIMIT 40 as well as the stop. Certainly since beginning June, NT STOP 40 / LIMIT 40 would've bagged you 40 more pips than NT STOP 40 / LIMIT 50.
 
Tanguero said:
Waggie, checked out your blog. May I ask what's your motivation in going public? Do you find any psychological benefits in it?
Click to expand...

Yes absolutely. I find that whenever I demo any new ideas, because it's not real money, I tend to take stupid trades and rush into set ups that are not ideal. So making the results public gives a sense of accountability, so much so that I've found myself caring more about these results than my live trading!

W.

www.cabletraderfx.blogspot.com
 
the stuff with NT40 stop loss and NT40 stop and limit is pretty interesting.
I'll stick with VNT for the time being but will start keeping an eye on those variations.

The amount of times NT has got to over 40 but then turned around must be quite a few!
 
Rugby Trader said:
the stuff with NT40 stop loss and NT40 stop and limit is pretty interesting.
I'll stick with VNT for the time being but will start keeping an eye on those variations.

The amount of times NT has got to over 40 but then turned around must be quite a few!
Click to expand...

Maybe not as often as you think but it certainly did that at least a couple of times in June. And it's damaging, because it's not just the +40 you're missing out on each time, but in those 2 examples in June when it turned back down after getting more than 40 but not quite 50, it went on to hit the stop at -30! So EACH time that happens you're actually making over 70 LESS pips than if you had traded with a limit of 40! Scary.

I need to look more into this NT 40/40 marlarkey. But I must say, I'm liking it so far. Indeed, after the terrible week I've just had, I'm LOVING the idea of NT 40/40!!
 
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