Richard Hill Forex Net Trap

[rob the bank]

it still works for me. Anyway most days he posts a new page, here is the link to todays.

http://www.trade2win.com/boards/for...term-technical-analysis-majors-08-15-gmt.html

and this is his cable analysis for today.

Gbp/usd

extended strength from 1.4947/63, to break above 1.5400 level and approach key 1.5500 zone, with 1.5470 seen so far. Clearance of 1.5500/25 would open way for a broader strength, though, risk of a lower top and return to weakness still exists.

Res: 1.5470, 1.5498, 1.5506, 1.5525
sup: 1.5347, 1.5298, 1.5250, 1.5234



m

gbp/usd

P1: 1.5397, P2: 1.5383
R1: 1.5529, R1: 1.5557, R2: 1.5618, R2: 1.5633, R3: 1.5765, R3: 1.5793
S1: 1.5321, S1: 1.5293, S2: 1.5161, S2: 1.5147, S3: 1.5086, S3: 1.5057

slightly different but it depends what initial figures you use
Calc P1: (H+L+C) /3
Calc P2: (H+L+C+today O) /4

This online calculator is quick and easy to use (saves doing the calcs manually):

http://www.mypivots.com/calculators/pivot-point-calculator.aspx

 

[BigDunc]

Aren't some of you falling into the trap of "I've had a bad week, I just need to tweak the system slightly and all will be well"? So constantly changing and never settling on a system long enough to see if long-term it is a winner?

 

[goldfinger777]

Aren't some of you falling into the trap of "I've had a bad week, I just need to tweak the system slightly and all will be well"? So constantly changing and never settling on a system long enough to see if long-term it is a winner?

Yes I probably am falling into that trap. I think we're all agreed that long-term (certainly for more than a year anyway) NT is profitable. I just want to make it MORE profitable

 

[mark120169]

Aren't some of you falling into the trap of "I've had a bad week, I just need to tweak the system slightly and all will be well"? So constantly changing and never settling on a system long enough to see if long-term it is a winner?

Not for me I used VNT for 3 weeks initialy, logged all results and stats from Day 1 and came to the conclision after 3 weeks that it gets stopped out to often and needed a bigger stop. So for the last 6 weeks I ran NT40 and ain't gone back to 30 stop on NT ever.

MNT I tried 30 stop, discounted 40 stop due to really bad RR and settled on 33 sell stop / 30 buy stop.

Dropped MNT to trial INT the last 3 weeks and stuck to the 30 stop on that due to usually 5-6 pips lower entry.

M

 

[Rugby Trader]

Aren't some of you falling into the trap of "I've had a bad week, I just need to tweak the system slightly and all will be well"? So constantly changing and never settling on a system long enough to see if long-term it is a winner?

I'm still going to carry on using NT, however that won't stop me from investigating other possibilities. Although i'm not sure how much forward testing it would take to convince me to change from VNT to a variant.

I suppose I'm the puritan ying to Mark's radical yang!

 

[mark120169]

I must say I'm mightily tempted by the idea of NT 40/40, even with 2%MM.

Don't do it, I log this too

It works but is worse than NT40 because on days when NT40 /40 banks 40 pips limit NT40 has banked between 36 and 43 pips at manual close.

But........ there are 3 x 50 pip NT days you would have given away 30 pips using NT 40/40.

NT 40 /40 is running 28 pips less than NT 40 over the last 9 weeks.

NT 40 manual closes when 6 x VNT got stopped out for -30 (-180 pips total) yielded. All other -30 stops resulted in -40 stops.

+1
+9
-10.7
+19.9
-9
-12


M

 

[Trader333]

The best trends (those pushing up or down more than 150 pips) require strong bases to be formed first, kind of launching pads, or convince enough folks to line up in one direction to swipe them all off in one big move

Large trending moves also mean larger volatility and as the method used takes no account of volatility (in terms of stop loss or profit targets) then there is a higher chance that the fixed stop of 30 pips will be taken out.


Paul

 

[goldfinger777]

Don't do it, I log this too

It works but is worse than NT40 because on days when NT40 /40 banks 40 pips limit NT40 has banked between 36 and 43 pips at manual close.

But........ there are 3 x 50 pip NT days you would have given away 30 pips using NT 40/40.

NT 40 /40 is running 28 pips less than NT 40 over the last 9 weeks.

NT 40 manual closes when 6 x VNT got stopped out for -30 (-180 pips total) yielded. All other -30 stops resulted in -40 stops.

+1
+9
-10.7
+19.9
-9
-12


M

Interesting...

 

[peterf1966]

Was still in but but just closed for +12.9 - but scaled to 75% of course. Thought 70 was a bit ambitious, bit of a spike there yesterday, and 60 was more realistic. Also wary of what Tang said about Friday profit taking after a good weeks rise - seen that before.
Oh well considering where it was for most of the time, thats not to bad, saved a bad week from being a really crap one. Have a good weekend all.

So did anyone do a short and profit from this today? Was out this afternoon, so I could not.

 

[Bolivian Admiral]

How does anyone backtest a system for a few months. For example on ig index the 15 minute data goes back only a few weeks and not months. Is there a website where you can access extended periods of time to test out a new system

 

[Wagtail]

How does anyone backtest a system for a few months. For example on ig index the 15 minute data goes back only a few weeks and not months. Is there a website where you can access extended periods of time to test out a new system

www.forextester.com

 

[Dubai]

How does anyone backtest a system for a few months. For example on ig index the 15 minute data goes back only a few weeks and not months. Is there a website where you can access extended periods of time to test out a new system

Just use MT4 and download the history of GBPUSD. You can go back 10 years.

 

[MikesDirect]

G'day Ladies, Sirs & Lurkers,

Does anyone use Capital Spreads platform? I used to use it some years back when it was a very primitive platform (compared to IG)! Pending orders used to take minutes to execute which was ridiculous!!! I think things may have improved considerably in recent times.

Can anyone comment on CS compared to IG in terms of speed of execution and slippage?

Good day,
Mike

 

[mark120169]

G'day Ladies, Sirs & Lurkers,

Does anyone use Capital Spreads platform? I used to use it some years back when it was a very primitive platform (compared to IG)! Pending orders used to take minutes to execute which was ridiculous!!! I think things may have improved considerably in recent times.

Can anyone comment on CS compared to IG in terms of speed of execution and slippage?

Good day,
Mike

I plan to give CS a try in the next 8 weeks while school holidays are running, mainly because they only have a 2 pip spread on Cable which has stop out and limit taking advantages.

But plenty of few hundred quid loss cover and £100 - £200 "gift" offers to take up first over the next 4 weeks as long as they have no more than a 3 pip cable spread I will try them.

Moneyweek do a good round up. Link below.

http://www.moneyweek.com/online-trading/spread-betting/compare-spread-betting.aspx

M

 

[Tenapenny]

G'day Ladies, Sirs & Lurkers,

Does anyone use Capital Spreads platform? I used to use it some years back when it was a very primitive platform (compared to IG)! Pending orders used to take minutes to execute which was ridiculous!!! I think things may have improved considerably in recent times.

Can anyone comment on CS compared to IG in terms of speed of execution and slippage?

Good day,
Mike

You may find some answers looking at recent posts here http://www.trade2win.com/boards/spread-betting/16595-capital-spreads.html

 

[MikesDirect]

Thanks for the replies guys,

I think the slippage on IG is just not acceptable given the high technology (so-called) they deploy! There should be absolutely NO SLIPPAGE on a pending order - it should trigger exactly at the enty price selected! Think I'm going to give CS a go and will report back regarding speed and slippage! It's got to be worth a try given the tighter spread on Cable.

Good day Ladies & Sirs,
Mike

 

[beaumont]

Just use MT4 and download the history of GBPUSD. You can go back 10 years.

I tried that ( tools - history centre - GBPUSD 15min- download) but nothing happened. It started to download, but then nothing. Is it meant to come up with a chart or is it tabutated data?

 

[Tenapenny]

I tried that ( tools - history centre - GBPUSD 15min- download) but nothing happened. It started to download, but then nothing. Is it meant to come up with a chart or is it tabutated data?

If you want the charts click tools - options - charts then the dropdown menu's for both history and charts can be altered between 5,000 and 250,000 bars. It may help, but haven't gone back 10 years myself.

 

[beaumont]

If you want the charts click tools - options - charts then the dropdown menu's for both history and charts can be altered between 5,000 and 250,000 bars. It may help, but haven't gone back 10 years myself.

Thanks for that, but unfortunately changing the max bars in history/charts does not seem to make any difference - the furthest back the chart will go (on 15 minutes) remains at August 2007.

 

[Dubai]

Thanks for that, but unfortunately changing the max bars in history/charts does not seem to make any difference - the furthest back the chart will go (on 15 minutes) remains at August 2007.

Where are you downloading the history to?