Re - where is the grail?

[new_trader]

Hey Peeps

Tried it all, every indicator, every system, every EA, multiple t/f, nothing works. Just keep losing money. Can someone teach me how to trade as I am thick as pig5hit and everyone I meet is telling me they are doing well.

all help appreciated.

jonny

If you are "thick as pig5hit" then do something else because you aren't suited to this profession.

Glad to be of help to you, I know you'll thank me.

 

[the hare]

BTW - if you trade directionally, you have to pick a direction you think price will move. This is a prediction.

Not necessarily, for years I used to choose a direction at random.

For quite a while I've been going down the directional bias route, but I'm still a bit undecided on the merits of that particular approach.

Imagine trading a real simple trend following system with a 35% strike rate. Can you really call that prediction when most of the time you are predicting the wrong direction ? (I suppose you could call it poor prediction if you where bloody minded enough)

Prediction should be reserved for mystics starting into crystall balls in a tent at the sea side, it has no place in profitable trading.

 

[new_trader]

Prediction should be reserved for mystics starting into crystall balls in a tent at the sea side, it has no place in profitable trading.

Hare,

Do you think price forecasting is:

a) Possible
b) Impossible

 

[the hare]

Hare,

Do you think price forecasting is:

a) Possible
b) Impossible

Well last sunday, I made a post that contained a couple of price levels, and I traded off those levels for the first half of the week. Price initially respected those levels to within less than half a pip.

But that isnt prediction, its simply observing that price reacted at those levels previously.

I got into this ridiculous argument with a lying rat who works for a well known brokerage, who was mis using the latest NFA statistics on the percentage of profitable traders, to pimp his wares. The lying toe rag has such a limited understanding of basic statistics that he honestly believed that he could argue that he had clients who where profitable every day, and where so over a substantial time period.

This is clearly nonsense. Take the track records of any successful trader, and almost without exception, you'll see losing years. I lose track of the number of people who I talk to who dabble on part time basis and yet tell me that they are able to predict markets with a high degree of probability, and make substantial and consistant returns. Strangely, I have yet to meet one who actually relies on that remarkable skill to make a living.

Conversely, the few people I know who do make a good living at this game seam to share a similar experience to my own, varience in their equity curves, consecutive losing days, weeks and months.

If that's prediction, then its not particulatly effective prediction.

For every level that I identify and successfully trade, there are levels that fail, and the fact that I make money has bugger all to do with correctly identifying those levels, in fact, I make as much money by entering completely at random, and in a random direction.

Its beyond doubt that repeatable patterns occur (and sometimes fail), but thats almost an irrelevance when it comes to making money.

 

[MoonRocket]

Just on the subject of books........
Many years ago a guy said to me..... Don't read ten books, read one good book ten times. And I think he is right.
When I go through a losing period, I'll re-read "Reminisces of a Stock Operator"
Or I just grab any of the stories in "Market Wizards" and presto! I'm back in the game.
It's good to know about the technical stuff but as some have said, don't spend money on it. It's freely available all over the net and besides every good trader has his own very distinct beliefs and methods of reading or not reading this stuff.

 

[scose-no-doubt]

All this talk of prediction and forecasting a bit misleading imo. Does anyone think that continued euro weakness stemming from the EU crisis is forecasting or prediction?

Is trend following a form of prediction?

 

[Joules MM1]

When I go through a losing period,

you need a practical and practicable approach, not inspiration otherwise your programmed to rotate on the same spot.......it's probably the best advice you'll get for free

TraderFeed

read that 10 times

 

[Pat494]

I took a look at stanziones offering. he says:

CORE CONCEPT 1: With my trading system you never place a trade where you stand to lose more than you can afford. This means you always have peace of mind if the markets go against you.

CORE CONCEPT 2: Although your potential losses are limited… the profits you can make following my trading system are literally unlimited. For example, it’s not unheard of to turn a £50 trade into a profit of £500 or more. And do so within just a few days.

CORE CONCEPT 3: Because my trading system is based on what’s called Spread Trading – you basically “bet” on the “spread” (or price movements) in a market. And you can “bet” on the price movement going upor down… and even… sideways.

sounds good to me. I might order it. have you tried it?

He is one of the " better left alone people, who does nicely out of newbies !!

 

[MoonRocket]

you need a practical and practicable approach, not inspiration otherwise your programmed to rotate on the same spot.......it's probably the best advice you'll get for free

The last thing I look for is inspiration. It lasts about 1.5 seconds into the first trade.
98% of trading failure is self failure, that's why I predominately read those type of books.
What I've personally found is that the line between success and failure in trading is an invisible line that exists in the head. Those type of books are very helpful in identifying the line and crossing the line.

 

[DionysusToast]

all other things are just the stuff you reach for when you feel insecure....and you feel the most insecure with insufficient knowledge and you know when you have insufficient knowledge when one of your hemispheres reaches for permission from something external to current price

Very good post, especially the above.

 

[nunrgguy]

The grail does not exist. There is no infallable 'system', never was, never will be: concentrate on sorting your mindset out.

You cannot pick the perfect entry, you do not know what is going to happen next and you certainly cannot predict where price will end up.

Whatever you are risking is no longer yours, it is already lost.
Whatever you have gained is not yours: until you decide that it is yours.

Big charts rule small charts, from a time period low to a time period high price moves hundred of ticks/pips: create a hypothesis based on what is significant and trade the hypothesis.

If closing price closed above something that means something to you it's going up: for now, if it closed below something that means something to you it's going down: for now. If it's not going down it's going up, if it's not going up it's going down.

Be large, and increasingly large when you are right, be small when you are wrong.

 

[Joules MM1]

The last thing I look for is inspiration. It lasts about 1.5 seconds into the first trade.
98% of trading failure is self failure, that's why I predominately read those type of books.
What I've personally found is that the line between success and failure in trading is an invisible line that exists in the head. Those type of books are very helpful in identifying the line and crossing the line.

everything you just said supports, that, immediate practical practise is your best benefit......take that reading books of traders is fine, i suggest, reading practical application a step beyond that.....in other words, you are still in the swing of how feeling good equates to concentrating, being focused, on what small amount of knowledge you know that works until it doesnt work and then you swing the opposite way when you trade past that knowledge, you overstep the boundaries of your knowledge.....that's really what you mean by "98% of trading is self failure" as you are speaking for yourself and that's how you know......

your knowledge is the boundary ......the self blame thing comes when your trading moves beyond that knowledge into an area that has nothing to do with a professional approach and you know that too

everytime a trader blows up and reaches for the same old diatribe they begin a new cycle.......a recycle

you see if you "predominantly reach for those types of books" you'll predominantly keep getting the same results and you know what those results are........you'll recycle those results.........you'll be recycling until you do something different to get a different result

 

[banawa]

hello
try that system please hes free
Price Action Trading with Indicators! The Freebie System @ Forex Factory
just download then read all the forum so you be more smart
good luk

 

[DionysusToast]

everything you just said supports, that, immediate practical practise is your best benefit......take that reading books of traders is fine, i suggest, reading practical application a step beyond that.....in other words, you are still in the swing of how feeling good equates to concentrating, being focused, on what small amount of knowledge you know that works until it doesnt work and then you swing the opposite way when you trade past that knowledge, you overstep the boundaries of your knowledge.....that's really what you mean by "98% of trading is self failure" as you are speaking for yourself and that's how you know......

your knowledge is the boundary ......the self blame thing comes when your trading moves beyond that knowledge into an area that has nothing to do with a professional approach and you know that too

everytime a trader blows up and reaches for the same old diatribe they begin a new cycle.......a recycle

you see if you "predominantly reach for those types of books" you'll predominantly keep getting the same results and you know what those results are........you'll recycle those results.........you'll be recycling until you do something different to get a different result

Listen to Joules...

Trading can be a never ending quest if you aren't careful.

 

[MoonRocket]

You're turning it something very complicated.
Yes I do look at alternate methods, and even the occasional indicator.
All I'm saying is....Spend most of your money on books that will help you're mind.
Find a good one and read it after every failure.
All the other mechanical crap can be found all over the net for nothing.
That's all I'm trying to say.
One other thing for newbies to trading...... Find the time frame you are suited to trade in. It won't be easy and could be very costly to discover this.

 

[DionysusToast]

Books won't teach you how to trade. They are all bunk. Chock full of crapola.

You can read them over and over and over again but they still won't tell you anything useful.

Just my opinion....

 

[the hare]

Books won't teach you how to trade. They are all bunk. Chock full of crapola.

You can read them over and over and over again but they still won't tell you anything useful.

Apart from the t2w book of course...:innocent:

 

[DionysusToast]

A sip from your typical day trading grail could taste a bit like this.

I'm not sure how many people are day trading the ES at any one time. Just for the sake of discussion let' say it's 10,000 intraday traders watching it. Let's say that this is the norm. That the market is largely dominated by these people most of the time.

Then there's the rest of the time.

This isn't just a speculators market. Market Profile theory talks about "Other Timeframe Players" (OTF) or to put it another way, people that don't get in & out intra-day.

The OTF players will pile into the market when there is a perceived fundamental shift. This usually occurs when there is major news. These people pile in (or out) and pile in big and can drive a market up or down all day. This is longer term positioning.

Then there's days where there isn't much for them to do. They are already positioned and not watching the screen every 30 seconds for a scalp.

Now - if you are going to day trade a market that is usually driven by speculators, one of the key things you need to do is to know when it's NOT driven by speculators.

Can you imagine watching a market every day and NOT knowing that sometimes there's a bunch of additional, LARGE players that are piling in, getting into position?

If you never considered participation, intra-day movement would never really make sense at all.

Not only do you have to consider additional players coming into the market temporarily, you also have to consider the speculators being spooked temporarily too and this creating a day with very low participation.

5 minute candlesticks ain't going to show you this.

 

[MoonRocket]

you see if you "predominantly reach for those types of books" you'll predominantly keep getting the same results and you know what those results are........you'll recycle those results.........you'll be recycling until you do something different to get a different result

Well that's not what has happened at all. I reach for those books at those times and discovered the author has added a few pages to the book.
And I say Wow! I never new that! It's also comforting to know I'm not the only mug in the world.
I'll bore you just a little longer.
I could never take a loss, just couldn't do it. I read a thousand times take your loss you will feel better, take your loss or the market will make you, take your loss and stay in the game.
But I ran up $400 to near $28,000 in about ten months without taking a loss and lost it four days and yet I let this happen before my eyes when in fact my exit plan was perfect, I should have escaped with $8,000 but between hope and panic I lost it all.
Deep down I knew it was luck that got me to 28 thou.
I began to read, no, study in earnest these books. They made me feel better as it seems a loss like this, gives one the right of passage to become a trader.
It also become clear from reading, I do not have the mental make up to be a long term trader.
So I tried day trading and I felt better about trading and this time it took a full 5 months to lose $10,000. And the problem was..........................
Couldn't take my loses, well I would by the end of the day and that was a vast improvement.
So more re-reading of the same books.
Guess what? I take my loses within seconds of feeling it's wrong. Some times I don't make much but I never ever lose much either.
I miss some good runs....so I read some more and this quote jumps out, it definitely was never in the book any other time I read it.
"Men who can both be right and sit tight are uncommon.
I found it one of the hardest things to learn."
And next time.........some thing else will come to light.....all from reading one book ten times.
And even 'tho ToastMan is a pain in the a@se I'm quite interested in his little program, which I discovered courtesy of another PITA, Mr Republic.
It might be the solution to my problem of knowing when to hold them and when to fold them.
My apology to all, for boring you to death.

 

[MoonRocket]

Books won't teach you how to trade. They are all bunk. Chock full of crapola.

You can read them over and over and over again but they still won't tell you anything useful.

ToastMan.. Maybe you can't read or somtin' or maybe your so talented and a natural borne trader you don't need to read. Maybe you're just trolling,
I'm not a natural borne trader, and some books have been extremely helpful and I have read them ten times.