This is why I wanted a definition of random. Otherwise it goes around in circles.
That something is random is a perception. We typically say random when we can't predict in advance with certainty. Whether there is an underlying cause or not is only relevant if we can perceive this cause and its effect and come to a certainty. Otherwise it is still random. Trigger, you mentioned trains. Trains arriving at the station is random. I can guess, but I can't be sure. If I see the train timetable, I can probably make a better guess, but I can't be certain. If I see the live update telling me it will arrive in 2 mins, I can make an even better estimate, but again, I can't be sure. Of course there are people driving the trains, and to them, seems like it isn't random at all, but even the train driver doesn't always know when it will arrive - and perhaps it doesn't matter to him the exact second he arrives. For the people on the platform it's still random.
So if the movement of a given trading instrument is not random, then it can be predicted with certainty. If you have some other meaning of random, we will disagree at this point.
If you claim it is not random, then there is a task for you. Take any instrument you like, and any timeframe, and predict the exact high low and close of the next 50 bars. If you can't, what is that telling you?
Interesting.....BUT
Am not sure if that is a good definition of random.....maybe we need to agree on this first?
Random is not meant to be predictive but it can be predicted in a given short period of time by chance. For over a long period of time, consistently is the issue and usually cannot be achieved.
When we say predictive, am not sure if that would include the exact price of the instrument in question because this is irrelevant, it is not the exact points/price that needs to be predicted that truly defines something not random. Because it is not the purpose itself to predict the exact prices for one to succeed, it is the pips gained which requires a movement in prices between buying and selling and to do that consistently.
I believe you have rightly noted about the train about to arrive at a station and quote: "perhaps it doesn't matter to him the exact second he arrives".
In trading, it is pips that makes dollars and not the actual price it hits.....a train will make money by moving but not the station itself.....as movements are pips.....so prediction is about the movement in price and being able to take advantage from it.
The train analogy I posted earlier is a message which requires some thought and analysis to understand.
In the physical world, the train station, the train and most important of all, the train driver are separate forms.
In the trading world, these are formed together on a chart.....
I think the hardest thing is this, when one is standing on earth and looking at earth itself, it looks flat so we say it is flat 100%.
When we shift our perspective from the earth say on the moon, we see earth differently.....round.
The point here is to illustrate what we see earth only as an illusion although it looks real on the same plane but looks different on another plane.
The markets are the same, when we use our eyes, we are on the same plane looking at it therefore it is in fact an illusion.....but we do not agree because we do not see it as an illusion.
It is only when we see this illusion, we will understand.....man.....it is so difficult to explain this!
