trade2make£
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fools rush in where angels fear to tread
Best Thread Featured Quick reference for real trading profit. Tips that work
philhackett
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3x13x39
Remember the numbers 3 x 13 = 39
Exponential moving averages of 3,13 and 39 can keep you in and out of markets fairly efficiently and profitably, (in any time frame actually). I will show you how.
Some basic principles to hang on to are:
* The market moves in long (secular) trends which may last years.
* Intermediate trends lasting many months, even a couple of years or so.
* Short term trends lasting weeks or months.
* Trade intermediate trends in either direction.
* Trade short term trends only in the direction of the intermediate trend.
Proxies:
* 3 Day MA - a proxy for price
* 13 Day MA - a proxy for the short term trend (a moving trend line)
* 39 Day MA - a proxy for the intermediate trend (a moving trend line)
* 40 week, 200 day MA - a proxy for the secular trend (a moving Trend line)
The Basics of MAs
MAs lag market reversals at tops and bottoms, the larger the MA the longer the lag period, the shorter the MA the shorter the lag but the more frequent the whipsaws. MAs work well when markets trend but get frequently whipsawed when they are in a range.
Therefore, trade trends with the MAs but do not trade ranges using MAs. Just stand aside and be patient until a new trend emerges.
The intermediate trend is in the direction of the 39 MA which acts like a moving trend line. If the 39 MA is pointing up then the intermediate trend is up, if down the trend is down. If the 39 MA is horizontal the market is in a range, from which a trend will, sooner or later, emerge.
Simple Trading Rules
1. When the 39 MA is moving up buy when the 3 MA crosses up over the 13 MA. and/or when the 3 MA crosses above the 39 MA.. When the 13 MA crosses above the 39 MA consider adding to your long position. Exit and stand aside when the 3 crosses back below the 13 MA..
2. When the 39 MA is moving down sell short when the 3 MA crosses below the 13 MA. and/or when the 3 MA crosses below the 39 MA.. When the 13 MA crosses below the 39 MA consider adding to your short position. Exit and stand aside when the 3 MA crosses back up over the 13 MA.
3. Only initiate trades in the opposite direction of the intermediate trend when the 3 MA crosses above or below the 39 MA, preferably after the 39 MA has already changed direction.
4. This 3:13 MA crossover will keep you trading in the trend with only a small lag and on the sidelines during corrections. The lag only becomes more substantial at reversals of the intermediate trend (a 3:39 crossover), a small price to pay at these uncertain times of trend transition.
Sell Dec. Gold S&P 500 3x13x39
Aids to Interpretation
* When the 3:13 crossovers occur at some distance from the 39 MA then you are 'likely' dealing with a short term correction (even though it can be substantial) to the 39 MA..
* If the 3:13 & 39 MAs are close and converging before crossing over you are 'likely' dealing with an intermediate (or significant) correction of the trend or reversal.
* 'Likely' means probable not 'you can bet the farm on it' surety. There is no sure thing just as there is absolutely no free lunch.
davedavethetrader
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wheres theres a hedge, there an edge.
someones always giving up something, just to feel more comfortable...
dont be a prick for a tick.... eg. buy back above your target.... never try to make a round number in p&l.
AND MY ALL TIME FAVORITE!!!! (purely for the picture it forms in my mind)
BE LIKE A TREE..... sway in the wind....
someones always giving up something, just to feel more comfortable...
dont be a prick for a tick.... eg. buy back above your target.... never try to make a round number in p&l.
AND MY ALL TIME FAVORITE!!!! (purely for the picture it forms in my mind)
BE LIKE A TREE..... sway in the wind....
Last edited:
davedavethetrader
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"""""""""Originally Posted by akshaytalwar View Post
To be successful in online trading, you must be equipped with the right online currency trading software. There are numbers of trading software available in the net, but you must choose one which is able to bring you wealth and rewards. Being able to have a suitable trading structure will ensure success for you in online trading. Having the right tool that goes well with your trading needs and preferences will lead you to the top of your trading endeavors.
This to me is a typical newbie mistake!!.. and I have only just realised this myself... the platform IS NOT the key... YOU ARE THE KEY... your reasons for THAT trade and your RULES are by (far lets say 80%) of the issue. next is the Psycology at say 9.95% and the 0.05% is the platform (the figures are simply for emphasis of my argument). If you give the best trader in the world a rubbish platform they will still make the money using thier specific and favoured well structurerd easily written collection of stretegies... although they will absolutely trash the software platform untill we fall over in stitches.. so..dont believe they hype, what is more important is how you execute your strategy.."""""""""""""""""""""
(dont know how to cut these posts yet)
so close!!! sentiments is right, but your still missing the real point.
"""""""""""""""YOU ARE THE KEY... your reasons for THAT trade and your RULES are by (far lets say 80%) of the issue. next is the Psycology at say 9.95% and the 0.05% is the platform """"""""""""""""""""""
phsycology 98% system 2% platform 0%
""""""""""If you give the best trader in the world a rubbish platform they will still make the money""""""""""
if you give the best trader in the world, (or any great trader) ANY system they will make money.
somewhere along the line, youve watched to many advertisements. PLATFORM is last, by miles. just after whether or not you just had a coffee.
PLEASE UNDERSTAND!!!! its your physcology, without the correct ONE, you lose. regardless. you may win today, you may even win tomorrow....but in the end. zip, zero, nadda....
you must ask yourself, what does a great trader think, NOT, what does a great trader do,
I have given my trading style to dozens of newbees, whats makes one a success and then next a failure? MINDSET.... simple. eh.....
if only you'd believe me....
it been said on these pages so many times, but i bet you the eye of the untrained trader is looking for the system that makes them rich. not some boring, vague, uninteresting comment about phsycology, (you know the one that deep down they know involves a whole lot of work, and maybe some painful stuff....)
To be successful in online trading, you must be equipped with the right online currency trading software. There are numbers of trading software available in the net, but you must choose one which is able to bring you wealth and rewards. Being able to have a suitable trading structure will ensure success for you in online trading. Having the right tool that goes well with your trading needs and preferences will lead you to the top of your trading endeavors.
This to me is a typical newbie mistake!!.. and I have only just realised this myself... the platform IS NOT the key... YOU ARE THE KEY... your reasons for THAT trade and your RULES are by (far lets say 80%) of the issue. next is the Psycology at say 9.95% and the 0.05% is the platform (the figures are simply for emphasis of my argument). If you give the best trader in the world a rubbish platform they will still make the money using thier specific and favoured well structurerd easily written collection of stretegies... although they will absolutely trash the software platform untill we fall over in stitches.. so..dont believe they hype, what is more important is how you execute your strategy.."""""""""""""""""""""
(dont know how to cut these posts yet)
so close!!! sentiments is right, but your still missing the real point.
"""""""""""""""YOU ARE THE KEY... your reasons for THAT trade and your RULES are by (far lets say 80%) of the issue. next is the Psycology at say 9.95% and the 0.05% is the platform """"""""""""""""""""""
phsycology 98% system 2% platform 0%
""""""""""If you give the best trader in the world a rubbish platform they will still make the money""""""""""
if you give the best trader in the world, (or any great trader) ANY system they will make money.
somewhere along the line, youve watched to many advertisements. PLATFORM is last, by miles. just after whether or not you just had a coffee.
PLEASE UNDERSTAND!!!! its your physcology, without the correct ONE, you lose. regardless. you may win today, you may even win tomorrow....but in the end. zip, zero, nadda....
you must ask yourself, what does a great trader think, NOT, what does a great trader do,
I have given my trading style to dozens of newbees, whats makes one a success and then next a failure? MINDSET.... simple. eh.....
if only you'd believe me....
it been said on these pages so many times, but i bet you the eye of the untrained trader is looking for the system that makes them rich. not some boring, vague, uninteresting comment about phsycology, (you know the one that deep down they know involves a whole lot of work, and maybe some painful stuff....)
tape reader
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When CNBC tells you to buy a stock, dump it the very next day.
dick_dastardly
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maxima
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trade do not betWin more money than you lose
hey everyone
lock in profits with a stop loss. never give money back to the markets
also strength comes in on down bars with high volume closing in the middle and weakness comes in on up bars high volume closing in the middle. usually volume will look climatic if you see this pay attention.
more than a 1 liner but i felt it was short enough and all traders should know how the markets really work
lock in profits with a stop loss. never give money back to the markets
also strength comes in on down bars with high volume closing in the middle and weakness comes in on up bars high volume closing in the middle. usually volume will look climatic if you see this pay attention.
more than a 1 liner but i felt it was short enough and all traders should know how the markets really work
pengeshark
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Set your entry and calculate RR against price/volume relationship. The market doesn't know (or care) if your stop is at 2% 3% 4%.
and
Plan for surprises, always know what you're going to do well before you do it.
and
Never trade beyond your ability.
and
Plan for surprises, always know what you're going to do well before you do it.
and
Never trade beyond your ability.
Some of you may find this article helpful or funny.
Clean up that mess!!
One of the biggest traps anyone new to TA will find themselves caught in is over analysis.
The psychology goes something like this; if I use a simple average then I can find a trend, if I use another average then I can get an entry and exit point. Wow this is cool, it works!! I can make it better if I use a stoch there, I’ll put an ADR there, CCI to that, wait, volume, yep got that covered with OBV, oh my god I’ve found the holy grail !!! Nope, doesn’t work after all, but I’m so close, I can feel it. Lets go to one of these online chart sites, I found one the other day with fifty four thousand indicators (slight exaggeration), there must be something there that will work. Before you know it you’ve made such a mess of the chart that you can’t even see price or volume anymore, just this screen of lines with the odd piece of white showing through where the chart used to be. Don’t laugh; it happens, all the time. Unfortunately many find themselves trapped in this mindset for years.
I’ve been guilty myself of many nights up at 4:00 am only to have my wife behind me asking if I’m ever coming to bed. ‘I’m working’ I’ll say, ‘but it looks like an etchasketch’ she’ll say.
Now I’m going to tell you what technical analysis is and try and save you three years of work finding this out for yourself. You ready?
Technical analysis = money flow psychology.
There I’ve said it, that’s the big secret revealed. Technical analysis has one purpose, to understand the psychology of those participants that are trading or investing in it. Bottom line is it’s my job to get inside your head. Now what is it that a chart evolves around, the one core element that without it TA doesn’t exist? Ahhhhhh Price I hear you all mumble. Well done all those that said price, you’ve all just made the same mistake 99.99% of those that have anything to do with TA make. Noooooooo it’s VOLUME. I’ll say it again,
V O L U M E. Write this on your mirror so you’re reminded every morning.
I always have a little grin when I’m reading one of the many articles that are critical of technical analysis. Almost all of them base their criticism around their belief that technical analysis is based around price. AI Review wrote an article last year and used a re-write of the coin toss argument. I don’t have a copy of the article anymore but basically it suggested that a technical analyst would look at 10 coin tosses, and then with that information make a decision on whether the next toss would be heads or tails. My view is that a technical analysts would look at the history and take that into account, he’d then want the velocity of the arm movement, the weight of the coin, the force behind the toss, the windspeed, gravity measurement, velocity of oxygen inhaled by those around the coin, heat generated by lighting and so on, he’d then take all that data and spend three hours to reach the conclusion that the risk/reward level is too high and walk away.
Anyway, back to the topic, VOLUME. The stock market doesn’t care if you use an 8/13 ema cross, it doesn’t care if you use ATR or stochs. I was at a seminar years ago for the star trader software (we all need a little humour in our lives) which is owned by Tomato technologies. Suddenly while tuning out I hear the words, and I’ll quote as accurately as I can “and as you can see here quite clearly the price moved sharply against (insert indicator of choice here) giving XYZ return”. I swear it was a reflex action but without thinking my hand went up and out came the words “how did the share price know the line would be there?”. Credit to the speaker, it only took him 10 seconds to utter his initial shocked response of “um, well, it didn’t”. I have another good story about that night but I’ll save it for later.
There is no holy grail. The problem with every single indicator you’ll use is that they need historical data to create their value, ie: they react to the price, not the other way around. Show me an indicator that uses tomorrows data and I’m there. But then of course who would need the indicator anyway.
Do the following exercise over the next six months. Strip your charts of everything except price and volume. Spend endless hours studying these without using a single tool. Feel free to enlarge volume, my opinion is the volume data should be the large frame and price the smaller frame. Now after you’ve studied them write up or down on the chart and don’t look at them for the next month. Most of you will be between 20-50% accurate. Your homework for the next two years is to consistently achieve 80% accuracy. This is the core of everything you do and remember, price reacts to volume always. In time I’ll go quite deep into volume and explain it in far more detail.
Clean up that mess!!
One of the biggest traps anyone new to TA will find themselves caught in is over analysis.
The psychology goes something like this; if I use a simple average then I can find a trend, if I use another average then I can get an entry and exit point. Wow this is cool, it works!! I can make it better if I use a stoch there, I’ll put an ADR there, CCI to that, wait, volume, yep got that covered with OBV, oh my god I’ve found the holy grail !!! Nope, doesn’t work after all, but I’m so close, I can feel it. Lets go to one of these online chart sites, I found one the other day with fifty four thousand indicators (slight exaggeration), there must be something there that will work. Before you know it you’ve made such a mess of the chart that you can’t even see price or volume anymore, just this screen of lines with the odd piece of white showing through where the chart used to be. Don’t laugh; it happens, all the time. Unfortunately many find themselves trapped in this mindset for years.
I’ve been guilty myself of many nights up at 4:00 am only to have my wife behind me asking if I’m ever coming to bed. ‘I’m working’ I’ll say, ‘but it looks like an etchasketch’ she’ll say.
Now I’m going to tell you what technical analysis is and try and save you three years of work finding this out for yourself. You ready?
Technical analysis = money flow psychology.
There I’ve said it, that’s the big secret revealed. Technical analysis has one purpose, to understand the psychology of those participants that are trading or investing in it. Bottom line is it’s my job to get inside your head. Now what is it that a chart evolves around, the one core element that without it TA doesn’t exist? Ahhhhhh Price I hear you all mumble. Well done all those that said price, you’ve all just made the same mistake 99.99% of those that have anything to do with TA make. Noooooooo it’s VOLUME. I’ll say it again,
V O L U M E. Write this on your mirror so you’re reminded every morning.
I always have a little grin when I’m reading one of the many articles that are critical of technical analysis. Almost all of them base their criticism around their belief that technical analysis is based around price. AI Review wrote an article last year and used a re-write of the coin toss argument. I don’t have a copy of the article anymore but basically it suggested that a technical analyst would look at 10 coin tosses, and then with that information make a decision on whether the next toss would be heads or tails. My view is that a technical analysts would look at the history and take that into account, he’d then want the velocity of the arm movement, the weight of the coin, the force behind the toss, the windspeed, gravity measurement, velocity of oxygen inhaled by those around the coin, heat generated by lighting and so on, he’d then take all that data and spend three hours to reach the conclusion that the risk/reward level is too high and walk away.
Anyway, back to the topic, VOLUME. The stock market doesn’t care if you use an 8/13 ema cross, it doesn’t care if you use ATR or stochs. I was at a seminar years ago for the star trader software (we all need a little humour in our lives) which is owned by Tomato technologies. Suddenly while tuning out I hear the words, and I’ll quote as accurately as I can “and as you can see here quite clearly the price moved sharply against (insert indicator of choice here) giving XYZ return”. I swear it was a reflex action but without thinking my hand went up and out came the words “how did the share price know the line would be there?”. Credit to the speaker, it only took him 10 seconds to utter his initial shocked response of “um, well, it didn’t”. I have another good story about that night but I’ll save it for later.
There is no holy grail. The problem with every single indicator you’ll use is that they need historical data to create their value, ie: they react to the price, not the other way around. Show me an indicator that uses tomorrows data and I’m there. But then of course who would need the indicator anyway.
Do the following exercise over the next six months. Strip your charts of everything except price and volume. Spend endless hours studying these without using a single tool. Feel free to enlarge volume, my opinion is the volume data should be the large frame and price the smaller frame. Now after you’ve studied them write up or down on the chart and don’t look at them for the next month. Most of you will be between 20-50% accurate. Your homework for the next two years is to consistently achieve 80% accuracy. This is the core of everything you do and remember, price reacts to volume always. In time I’ll go quite deep into volume and explain it in far more detail.
Mr.J-Arthur
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Know thyself and know thy enemy. A thousand battles, A thousand wins.
The battle is fought and won before the battle even starts.
The battle is fought and won before the battle even starts.
there is only one trend for your timeframe to be concerned with...the trend trading is a must for me....there is also only one channel for the timeframe.......the channel trends to next trend....15 min clearer trend than shorter time frames etc.........intraday eminis...ask me a question I will asnwer......but will you accept ...guaranteed no answer.....that is why a few good system are sold...traders won't accept ...will make it their with changes and there goes the good system down the drain....
what most worry about trending is the channel and is the runs for the day....eminis will most everyday give 2 3 good trends...runs...i have a system that is described by 6 words..what are they? some few people understand that....takes years to learn it...mr marcus tried to help t2w members...most did not deserve what he had removed from the forum..he was only giving...
i realized that most of my loses are little and i exit them like around 40 bucks 50 or even 10 but then they pile up because i get scared or panic but then if im on the winning side theyre huge like 200 or 500 good enough for a mini account but then losses outweigh wins because small loses piles up.. so i think small gains are good even if theyre just 10 bucks if youre patient itl pile up good
Econtrader.com is good for newbies i picked up a couple myself but its not that much books does provide more material of course.
Econtrader.com is good for newbies i picked up a couple myself but its not that much books does provide more material of course.
The thing that helped me most in my trading was learning how to scale out of positions and let the statistics and ATR help me. The other was using negative retracement line to help me set targets. My trading profits increased when I started looking for singles and doubles rather then looking for home runs.
