Price, (Volume), Support, Resistance, Demand, Supply . . .

[rols]

When confronted with cryptic remarks upfront, they are bound to feel that this is all vague, abstract, obscure. This “cruel to be kind treatment ”(as one of the distinguished disciple put it) is not going to be of much use, at least not right up front. Moreover, ask yourself , how does posting scathing and sweeping remarks incorporating words like inmates(927), parasites(926), devoid of intelligence(934), help.
The Zen Master approach is fine later on, once the newcomer is guided towards a particular strategy, setup, pattern etc. and commences work on that.

This is being posted with no intention of engaging in drawn out pedantic debates.
.

Firstly I am not and have never been a 'disciple' of anybodys'.

Secondly, your contribution adds nothing what-so-ever to this thread except propagate the very faults you complain about.

Thirdly, your posts remind me of the bogus critic who writes a damning critique of a play he hasn't actually attended. This is obvious to all of us who are actively interested and involved in this thread and your comments do little except diminish your already fading reputation.

 

[ymonly]

pure entertainment......nothing else....market opens in the morning ....i strongly suggest this rule...each day....no forum thinking allowed until market closes.......if u r trading real stuff....

 

[SIMA]

Firstly I am not and have never been a 'disciple' of anybodys'.

Secondly, your contribution adds nothing what-so-ever to this thread except propagate the very faults you complain about.

Thirdly, your posts remind me of the bogus critic who writes a damning critique of a play he hasn't actually attended. This is obvious to all of us who are actively interested and involved in this thread and your comments do little except diminish your already fading reputation.

BINGO, Collected 2 bets from my trading friends, have a group here , meet on Sunday afternoons to “engage in dialogue” , “exchange of ideas” , concepts which appear to be alien here, first on the kind of response from you, despite the fact that I did not address you directly and the sequence of it, i.e following Db’s post.

You persist in throwing insults, however for the sake of T2W being a leading community website based near a prestigious University where I did some post grad. work during my student days, I shall choose to remain polite and courteous, for the time being.

1. As for “Bogus Critic” not having seen the full Play, I ask you , what more do you want me to observe, the drama is unfolding on this thread before our very eyes (o.k have not been through all the 900 plus posts). First of all how does slinging insults and trying to browbeat and demoralize newcomers and newbies contribute to the thread or in anyway enhance your reputation and fades mine. We did not come to the website to build any reputation or cult following.
2.There are glaring inconsistencies in comments all over the place, here is just an example.
3.You post a chart of Dax (881) “WOT did happen next”,
followed by the cosmic take “ I recognized the chart pattern immediately…..perhaps all the photo reading practice is paying off”. After that nothing.
.
4. Now go forward to Post 925(section c) and examine the comments “ The obsessive focus on “what happens next” is distracting and irrelevant and has nothing to do with what is involved in developing a trading strategy”

. If I or any newcomer had posted such a chart there would have been a barrage of such criticisms. So how does your chart and comments contribute to the education of others.

5. You most likely have a following and get kicks out of them patting on your back at your uncanny ability to read the future. Something to gloat over perhaps , sort a of daily boost to the attention seeking ego.
6. Real value would have been added to the thread if you had taken the trouble to put up a 15min or 30min chart where the principles of VSA are reflected with greater clarity and then gone onto demonstrate how to gain entry via 3min or 2min charts. Anyway you are not the only who can read the charts,
Collected 37pts on the day, did not spend 7 grueling yrs in this business, including training from a floor trader in the City for nothing and certainly not for gaining some form of reputation on internet forums. As for fading reputation here, presumably you conducted a survey via PM …. well ,you really think we are going to loose sleep over it.


Our reasons for coming on the thread have been clearly stated. LET US JUST
AGREE TO DIFFER AND LEAVE IT THAT, SHALLWE…….UNLESS
YOU THINK OTHERWISE.

 

[SIMA]

I might also point out that I have been working through strategy development step by step with the one person who chose to respond to the exercise. And I'm not the only one to have done so in the past. If you were willing to withhold your disapproval long enough to do a bit of research, you'd know that. But that would involved time and effort.

You're not making a very good case for the poor mistreated newbie since you're exhibiting exactly those behaviors with which the more experienced traders are confronted on a regular basis.

Db

1. Have clearly stated our intentions for coming to the thread
2. Have acknowledged the contribution you have made.
3. Have made no claims to being a professional trader like you nor expressed any desire for a parasitic ride or ongoing advice and guidance. Just wanted normal dialogue as you observe on WASPS journal and countless others, no confrontations of any kind.
4. Delighted to learn that somebody is benefitting from your expertise. We extend our gratitude also for taking all this on to a practical level

 

[dbphoenix]

1. Have clearly stated our intentions for coming to the thread
2. Have acknowledged the contribution you have made.
3. Have made no claims to being a professional trader like you nor expressed any desire for a parasitic ride or ongoing advice and guidance. Just wanted normal dialogue as you observe on WASPS journal and countless others, no confrontations of any kind.
4. Delighted to learn that somebody is benefitting from your expertise. We extend our gratitude also for taking all this on to a practical level

No confrontations of any kind, yet you continue to be confrontational. So far you've made 20+ posts, a third of which are devoted to criticizing those traders of whom you disapprove (most of the rest are devoted to hindsight analysis which can be charitably described as vague). Rather than attack people you don't even know for failing to meet your standard, I suggest that you set that standard. Open up a thread providing tutorials in VSA. Open up a thread providing tutorials in trading pivot levels. Do this for several months. Provide us with a concrete example of that collegial spirit. Do something, in other words, other than complain.

 

[rols]

BINGO, Collected 2 bets from my trading friends, have a group here , meet on Sunday afternoons to “engage in dialogue” , “exchange of ideas” , concepts which appear to be alien here, first on the kind of response from you, despite the fact that I did not address you directly and the sequence of it, i.e following Db’s post.

You persist in throwing insults, however for the sake of T2W being a leading community website based near a prestigious University where I did some post grad. work during my student days, I shall choose to remain polite and courteous, for the time being.

1. As for “Bogus Critic” not having seen the full Play, I ask you , what more do you want me to observe, the drama is unfolding on this thread before our very eyes (o.k have not been through all the 900 plus posts). First of all how does slinging insults and trying to browbeat and demoralize newcomers and newbies contribute to the thread or in anyway enhance your reputation and fades mine. We did not come to the website to build any reputation or cult following.
2.There are glaring inconsistencies in comments all over the place, here is just an example.
3.You post a chart of Dax (881) “WOT did happen next”,
followed by the cosmic take “ I recognized the chart pattern immediately…..perhaps all the photo reading practice is paying off”. After that nothing.
.
4. Now go forward to Post 925(section c) and examine the comments “ The obsessive focus on “what happens next” is distracting and irrelevant and has nothing to do with what is involved in developing a trading strategy”

. If I or any newcomer had posted such a chart there would have been a barrage of such criticisms. So how does your chart and comments contribute to the education of others.

5. You most likely have a following and get kicks out of them patting on your back at your uncanny ability to read the future. Something to gloat over perhaps , sort a of daily boost to the attention seeking ego.
6. Real value would have been added to the thread if you had taken the trouble to put up a 15min or 30min chart where the principles of VSA are reflected with greater clarity and then gone onto demonstrate how to gain entry via 3min or 2min charts. Anyway you are not the only who can read the charts,
Collected 37pts on the day, did not spend 7 grueling yrs in this business, including training from a floor trader in the City for nothing and certainly not for gaining some form of reputation on internet forums. As for fading reputation here, presumably you conducted a survey via PM …. well ,you really think we are going to loose sleep over it.


Our reasons for coming on the thread have been clearly stated. LET US JUST
AGREE TO DIFFER AND LEAVE IT THAT, SHALLWE…….UNLESS
YOU THINK OTHERWISE.

I feel I must exercise my right of reply.

The reference to the DAX chart just proves my point that you have not read the thread. What actually happened was that a chart (with no indication of the actual vehicle on it) was posted and there was an invitation by Firewalker for members to come forward and offer how they would have traded it.

By co-incidence the chart posted was one I recognised because I had been trading it a few weeks before(hence my reference to developing a photographic memory). Actually this could have been a perfect opportunity for a poseur to show off his TA precog knowledge. The reason I actually chose to post it because there was a disagreement between two members about what actually did happen next.

That is what happened.

 

[ljyoung]

The journal needn't be about creating a trading plan from scratch. I still do it. Every day. And I've been trading since '88. The journal can be nothing more than a place to keep it all together along with whatever comments one invites from other people.

As for opinions, I'll leave that to others. I just listen to the market. It tells me when to get in and when to get out and when to go to the movies instead. If I listen, that is.

As for "discussion", I'm afraid I can't work up much interest. The point at which everything that could be said got said was passed long ago, and most everything since has just been repetition. This thread is a thousand posts long. Remove the repetitions and it might be 300. Tops. Maybe half that.

So rather than discuss, I'd prefer to see somebody put pencil to paper. Then there's something to talk about. Otherwise, one remains in the abstract theoretical philosophical vagueness, and we know how the inexperienced traders just hate that.

Db

You have me bested by a ratio of 18/5 with respect to trading experience. One of my thoughts when deciding to join the discussion on this board was that people with different backgrounds and professional experience can complement each other when it comes to the development of trading strategies based on sound and testable reasoning. I have a number of questions which I have not seen asked yet (clinical type that I am, I have read all of this thread, the S/R thread and the two ET threads you reference in this thread). If you will then, let me ask one of the questions.

As best I can ascertain there exists a difference of opinion between yourself and the VSA devotees with respect to the composition of "trading activity" - a term which I agee much more accurately describes what is going on, in contrast to the term "volume". VSA theory estimates that about 85% of trading activity is due to professional traders and furthermore defines them as: trading syndicates and other professional operators - not the MF and institutional crews.

There are times in a cycle of accumulation-markup-distribution-markdown where this partitioning does not hold true and as you have pointed out, this would seem to be particularly so when the cycle is in "trend" mode. The herd is thundering along being nudged, when appropriate, by the the people who got the stampede going in the first place. It would be not unreasonable then to suggest that where one is going to see the "cowboys" in action will be at the turns in a cycle and as well the time periods leading up to the turns, viz., the accumulation and distribution phases with their testing and thrusting.

In the A/D phases, the people in the know are ever so quietly doing their thing, being as careful as possible not to tip their hands. Huge amounts of money are involved in algorithmic trading programs which are constructed specifically so that groups with large holdings (either in hand or waiting to be in hand) can execute their trades at the best possible price with the least possible disruption.

Clearly price is the final arbiter and for any trader, accurate price discovery is what making money is all about. It is my feeling that whatever probe I can use to help me find the best price, is a probe I want to use. I really don't care a whit what it is or who discovered or advocates it. The driving reason behind my choice of a probe is simply that I must be able to make money in a non-random way when I use it.

I am asking your opinion on the hypothesis. If you think my question has already been answered, cool. If you don't wish to respond, also cool. If anyone else wishes to respond, equally cool. Conventional TA pretty much sucks. It is time for a change.

ljey

Big gains and losses concentrate into small periods of time - Benoit Mandelbrot

 

[Charlton]

You have me bested by a ratio of 18/5 with respect to trading experience. One of my thoughts when deciding to join the discussion on this board was that people with different backgrounds and professional experience can complement each other when it comes to the development of trading strategies based on sound and testable reasoning. I have a number of questions which I have not seen asked yet (clinical type that I am, I have read all of this thread, the S/R thread and the two ET threads you reference in this thread). If you will then, let me ask one of the questions.

As best I can ascertain there exists a difference of opinion between yourself and the VSA devotees with respect to the composition of "trading activity" - a term which I agee much more accurately describes what is going on, in contrast to the term "volume". VSA theory estimates that about 85% of trading activity is due to professional traders and furthermore defines them as: trading syndicates and other professional operators - not the MF and institutional crews.

There are times in a cycle of accumulation-markup-distribution-markdown where this partitioning does not hold true and as you have pointed out, this would seem to be particularly so when the cycle is in "trend" mode. The herd is thundering along being nudged, when appropriate, by the the people who got the stampede going in the first place. It would be not unreasonable then to suggest that where one is going to see the "cowboys" in action will be at the turns in a cycle and as well the time periods leading up to the turns, viz., the accumulation and distribution phases with their testing and thrusting.

In the A/D phases, the people in the know are ever so quietly doing their thing, being as careful as possible not to tip their hands. Huge amounts of money are involved in algorithmic trading programs which are constructed specifically so that groups with large holdings (either in hand or waiting to be in hand) can execute their trades at the best possible price with the least possible disruption.

Clearly price is the final arbiter and for any trader, accurate price discovery is what making money is all about. It is my feeling that whatever probe I can use to help me find the best price, is a probe I want to use. I really don't care a whit what it is or who discovered or advocates it. The driving reason behind my choice of a probe is simply that I must be able to make money in a non-random way when I use it.

I am asking your opinion on the hypothesis. If you think my question has already been answered, cool. If you don't wish to respond, also cool. If anyone else wishes to respond, equally cool. Conventional TA pretty much sucks. It is time for a change.

ljey

Big gains and losses concentrate into small periods of time - Benoit Mandelbrot

iyoung

On the whole this seems a cool hypothesis. Trading activity and volume are terms used by, for example, Tom Williams in his work. Db's explanations of the difference in meaning of these terms and the nature of a volume bar i.e. as a representation is useful.

I'm not sure about the 85%. Yes I have seen it quoted. I would say that where considerable trading activity is taking place and price reflects that, then professional traders can be seen at work. They are also at work, as you point out, quietly behind the scenes as well. The problem I have with the % is if you interpret this as being 85% of the trading activity represented within a volume bar is professional trading, because this leaves 15% for the rest - the weaker hands, so who exactly is selling to whom.

I would to prefer to think in terms of buying and selling pressure, transfer of stock to weaker players and effect on price etc, rather than specific %.

Anyway thanks for an interesting post

Charlton

 

[SIMA]

. Open up a thread providing tutorials in VSA. Open up a thread providing tutorials in trading pivot levels. Do this for several months. Provide us with a concrete example of that collegial spirit. Do something, in other words, other than complain.

Thank you for the advice db, just might to do that, although that was not the original intention .
Don't think have problems with any of the traders in here at all, it is just that , I was not particularly enamoured by comments from rols. As to complaints, from my point of view they are more like observations..
It is just that we felt certain empathy with FW, having gone through that phase back in 1998,
got to admire his tenacity and resolve, poor chap was going around in circles, most would have left the arena demoralised and in despair. Well you got to admit, Post 924 did provide the required "Jump Start")
Have no doubt that any mentor would love to have a student like FW, I am certain he is going to make it, who knows in 10yrs time he could rise above us all and comeback to continue your noble task in educating others. ))), After all his thread is about enlightenment, hope he does not forget the Zen teaching of LIGHTING OTHER CANDLES.

 

[SIMA]

iyoung

'm not sure about the 85%. Yes I have seen it quoted. I would say that where considerable trading activity is taking place and price reflects that, then professional traders can be seen at work. They are also at work, as you point out, quietly behind the scenes as well. The problem I have with the % is if you interpret this as being 85% of the trading activity represented within a volume bar is professional trading, because this leaves 15% for the rest - the weaker hands, so who exactly is selling to whom.

ICharlton

IMO P/V and VSA are 2 sides of the same coin, there is no right or wrong here, study of both would lead to deeper understanding of the engine that drives the market. Many have gone through all of this, internalised it and have progressed to a level where the "WHY" is not necessary and are able to Pull the trigger by observing the price action alone.
However it does not mean that others who wish to know about the subject are wasting their time. If this view was held , we would still be caves.
As for the Professionals, Tom would tell you that there are not hundreds but thousands of syndicates, various levels of professionals all competing amongst themselves, all operating on different timeframes and with different agendas. So when a huge vol appears, it is not a single body of Pros against the herd(weak holders). Anybody who has learnt to read the footprints of the Pros can be termed as Professional, Db , for instance, maybe others in here.
Who knows you could be one))

 

[dbphoenix]

I am asking your opinion on the hypothesis. If you think my question has already been answered, cool. If you don't wish to respond, also cool. If anyone else wishes to respond, equally cool.

As I've said, there are several VSA threads. This is not one of them. This could be turned into one and there isn't much I could do about it, but turning it into one would defeat the purpose of the thread.

Therefore, if you'd like to ask your VSA questions on one of the VSA threads, I'll be happy to respond to it. But to do it here would encourage more posts on VSA.

Db

 

[ljyoung]

As I've said, there are several VSA threads. This is not one of them. This could be turned into one and there isn't much I could do about it, but turning it into one would defeat the purpose of the thread.

Therefore, if you'd like to ask your VSA questions on one of the VSA threads, I'll be happy to respond to it. But to do it here would encourage more posts on VSA.

Db

That's a can do. I will post on the VSA thread.
Returning to price then could you please define what the time frame is for your determination of the opening price range (OR). Others have given that range as anything from 5 minutes to 30 minutes into the day session, although classically I thought it was 15 minutes.

ljey

 

[dbphoenix]

That's a can do. I will post on the VSA thread.
Returning to price then could you please define what the time frame is for your determination of the opening price range (OR). Others have given that range as anything from 5 minutes to 30 minutes into the day session, although classically I thought it was 15 minutes.

ljey

Sorry, I don't have one. It can be minutes, hours, or none. Whether an ORB works or not depends on what you're trading and how.

 

[ljyoung]

iyoung

The problem I have with the % is if you interpret this as being 85% of the trading activity represented within a volume bar is professional trading, because this leaves 15% for the rest - the weaker hands, so who exactly is selling to whom.

That is precisely my point that the distribution cannot be "fixed". In other words there are times (when price is trending) that much more than 15% of the trading activity can be attributed to the herd. This is most obvious in an uptrend. When the turn is completed and price enters the markdown phase, things are more complicated because of the presence of shorting which is going on concomitant with the increasingly panicky selling by the herd. The point is that the professional traders will want to exploit the increased volatility in the most efficient manner possible and that as best I can understand would be to pound away at the bid price.

At db's request I will shift any further discussion of VSA or VSA-like entities to the VSA thread.

Thank you for your interest.

ljey

 

[ljyoung]

Sorry, I don't have one. It can be minutes, hours, or none. Whether an ORB works or not depends on what you're trading and how.

Dull-witted cretin that I am, I must say that in terms of the question I was asking, your answer makes no sense to me. After some specified period of time there will a high price for that time period and a low price. Whether or not price breaks out of that range is of course unkown when the time parameters are set but that has no a priori bearing on the choice of the time frame. After losing large amounts of money due to one's poor choice of the time frame, one might wish to change it but that would seem to be a different matter.

ljey

 

[dbphoenix]

Dull-witted cretin that I am, I must say that in terms of the question I was asking, your answer makes no sense to me. After some specified period of time there will a high price for that time period and a low price. Whether or not price breaks out of that range is of course unkown when the time parameters are set but that has no a priori bearing on the choice of the time frame. After losing large amounts of money due to one's poor choice of the time frame, one might wish to change it but that would seem to be a different matter.

ljey

On the one hand, you're defining your timeframe by a high price and a low price. On the other, you're defining your high price and your low price by the timeframe. Reconciling the two simultaneously is going to be a problem.

As for the high price and the low price, these occur the first time you have two non-identical ticks, which is generally within the first few seconds of the open. Whether you choose to trade that or not is another matter.

 

[ljyoung]

On the one hand, you're defining your timeframe by a high price and a low price. On the other, you're defining your high price and your low price by the timeframe. Reconciling the two simultaneously is going to be a problem.

As for the high price and the low price, these occur the first time you have two non-identical ticks, which is generally within the first few seconds of the open. Whether you choose to trade that or not is another matter.

Clearly, the time frame must be set beforehand, let's say for example the night before. Otherwise the whole experiment makes no sense (unless of course one is a post-modern reductionist in which case anything goes). As best I can ascertain neither you nor I are PMR's.

Whatever the high and low price are in the time frame which I selected, let's say I selected 15 minutes, that's the opening range. As I've said, it may turn out that 15 minutes is rather a poor choice for my strategy (let'scall it the "trading the opening range breakout strategy") in that I keep losing money when my strategy is triggered. So then I should change it or go broke or :idea: test it before committing my wad.

The reason I asked the question in the first place is that there are several instances in your PV Practicum wher you mention the opening range and it wasn't clear to me what the time frame was that you used to determine it.

C'est tout.

ljey

 

[dbphoenix]

Clearly, the time frame must be set beforehand, let's say for example the night before. Otherwise the whole experiment makes no sense (unless of course one is a post-modern reductionist in which case anything goes). As best I can ascertain neither you nor I are PMR's.

Whatever the high and low price are in the time frame which I selected, let's say I selected 15 minutes, that's the opening range. As I've said, it may turn out that 15 minutes is rather a poor choice for my strategy (let'scall it the "trading the opening range breakout strategy") in that I keep losing money when my strategy is triggered. So then I should change it or go broke or :idea: test it before committing my wad.

The reason I asked the question in the first place is that there are several instances in your PV Practicum wher you mention the opening range and it wasn't clear to me what the time frame was that you used to determine it.

C'est tout.

ljey

The ORs in the Practicum are defined by a swing high and a swing low. However, this is not the only way of defining it. One can also define it by a timeframe. I understand some people define it by counting bars.

The OR is important to a lot of people, but personally I'm more interested in S/R. If either the OH or OL coincide with either S or R, then I will likely act on it. I haven't traded ORBs since the intraday range was cut in half.

If trading whatever breakouts occur through whatever high and low points have been established by the 15m mark has not been successful, then, yes, I would test other options before trading it further.

 

[ljyoung]

The ORs in the Practicum are defined by a swing high and a swing low. However, this is not the only way of defining it. One can also define it by a timeframe. I understand some people define it by counting bars.

The OR is important to a lot of people, but personally I'm more interested in S/R. If either the OH or OL coincide with either S or R, then I will likely act on it. I haven't traded ORBs since the intraday range was cut in half.

If trading whatever breakouts occur through whatever high and low points have been established by the 15m mark has not been successful, then, yes, I would test other options before trading it further.

Thank you for explaining. Your earlier statements are much clearer to me now. If I might say, the use of S/R to "test" an OH or OL makes more sense than simply picking a time frame, however one is still left with deciding what is the OH and OL. If I might answer that question proactively (one of my most unfavorite words), the OH and OL could be the high and low points of the bar that one is trading but then that could get a little dicey if one trades the 1,2,3,4 or 5 minute bars just because of what the MM's tend to do in the early moments of the day. So to be truthful I don't know what the time frame should be but that's what experiments are for.

As for trading ORB's perhaps one of the reasons they so frequently fail is that the BO isn't coming from a "real" base but rather an artificial, time-based construct which may or may not have a "tradeable reality", as much by coincidence as anything else.

ljey

 

[dbphoenix]

the use of S/R to "test" an OH or OL makes more sense than simply picking a time frame, however one is still left with deciding what is the OH and OL.

Or vice-versa, i.e., the OH or OL tests S/R. Or one can simply play S/R plotted pre-opening and let the OH and OL worry about themselves.

As for trading ORB's perhaps one of the reasons they so frequently fail is that the BO isn't coming from a "real" base but rather an artificial, time-based construct which may or may not have a "tradeable reality", as much by coincidence as anything else.

The better ones do seem to come from a "base" consisting of an SH, an SL, then a test of either or both, then a breakout (traders are often like caged animals). Time seems to be a secondary consideration. But I haven't looked at this in a long time and don't really know what's true currently, hence the "seems". In any event, with that sort of base, one can argue that the trader is trading S/R, not the OR.