Pre-Open US

[Z Forex]

US Indices

S&P 500 and Nasdaq Futures Dip & Corporates Fluctuate
S&P 500 futures declined by 0.5%, and Nasdaq 100 futures fell by 0.9% as the market braces for the upcoming U.S. consumer inflation report. Economists anticipate the January U.S. CPI to show a monthly increase of 0.2% and an annual rise of 2.9%, a slight deceleration from the previous figures of 0.3% month-on-month and 3.4% year-on-year.
The U.S. stock market faces a significant test today with the release of this economic data, following a robust three-month rally. During this period, mega-cap companies, particularly those in the AI sector, have driven the market to reach new historic highs.
A Bank of America survey indicated that its "Bull & Bear Indicator" has climbed to 6.8, signaling that investor positioning may increasingly pose a challenge for risk assets.
On the corporate side, NVIDIA saw a nearly 1% drop in premarket trading, while Coca-Cola experienced a slight increase of 0.3% after announcing earnings that met expectations and revenue that exceeded them.
The Nasdaq has hit a resistance level at 18000, where it touches the upper parallel of the long-term bullish channel. Today's economic data will mostly influence the performance and direction of the index and could lead to a correction or a breakout considering the current overbought conditions.




Crypto

Bitcoin Tops $50,000 Amid Bullish Sentiment of Traders
Bitcoin's price action has been the center of attention as it soared above the $50,000 mark, a level not seen since December 2021. This rally was partly fueled by the anticipation of a rate cut by the US Federal Reserve, the growing popularity of Bitcoin ETFs, and the upcoming Bitcoin Halving event in April 2024, which historically tends to push the cryptocurrency market to new highs.
Traders have shown bullish sentiment, as evidenced by the increased open interest in Bitcoin and the forced liquidation of short positions when the price broke beyond $49,000. The market's bullish momentum is further supported by the fact that Bitcoin has positioned itself above its 50-day moving average.
The surge in Bitcoin's price has led to a rise in speculative activities, with traders on prediction platforms like Polymarket making significant gains. For instance, a trader made a 550% return betting on Bitcoin's price reaching $50,000 in February. Moreover, options traders are scooping up bets at $65K and higher, reflecting strong bullish market sentiment.
Despite the positive trends, there are concerns about overbought conditions and potential market impacts from the forced sale of cryptocurrencies by the failed lender Genesis. Nonetheless, the market outlook remains optimistic, with forecasts suggesting a continued rise in Bitcoin's value.

 

[Z Forex]

US Indices

S&P 500 and Nasdaq Futures Dip & Corporates Fluctuate
S&P 500 futures declined by 0.5%, and Nasdaq 100 futures fell by 0.9% as the market braces for the upcoming U.S. consumer inflation report. Economists anticipate the January U.S. CPI to show a monthly increase of 0.2% and an annual rise of 2.9%, a slight deceleration from the previous figures of 0.3% month-on-month and 3.4% year-on-year.
The U.S. stock market faces a significant test today with the release of this economic data, following a robust three-month rally. During this period, mega-cap companies, particularly those in the AI sector, have driven the market to reach new historic highs.
A Bank of America survey indicated that its "Bull & Bear Indicator" has climbed to 6.8, signaling that investor positioning may increasingly pose a challenge for risk assets.
On the corporate side, NVIDIA saw a nearly 1% drop in premarket trading, while Coca-Cola experienced a slight increase of 0.3% after announcing earnings that met expectations and revenue that exceeded them.
The Nasdaq has hit a resistance level at 18000, where it touches the upper parallel of the long-term bullish channel. Today's economic data will mostly influence the performance and direction of the index and could lead to a correction or a breakout considering the current overbought conditions.

Crypto

Bitcoin Tops $50,000 Amid Bullish Sentiment of Traders
Bitcoin's price action has been the center of attention as it soared above the $50,000 mark, a level not seen since December 2021. This rally was partly fueled by the anticipation of a rate cut by the US Federal Reserve, the growing popularity of Bitcoin ETFs, and the upcoming Bitcoin Halving event in April 2024, which historically tends to push the cryptocurrency market to new highs.
Traders have shown bullish sentiment, as evidenced by the increased open interest in Bitcoin and the forced liquidation of short positions when the price broke beyond $49,000. The market's bullish momentum is further supported by the fact that Bitcoin has positioned itself above its 50-day moving average.
The surge in Bitcoin's price has led to a rise in speculative activities, with traders on prediction platforms like Polymarket making significant gains. For instance, a trader made a 550% return betting on Bitcoin's price reaching $50,000 in February. Moreover, options traders are scooping up bets at $65K and higher, reflecting strong bullish market sentiment.
Despite the positive trends, there are concerns about overbought conditions and potential market impacts from the forced sale of cryptocurrencies by the failed lender Genesis. Nonetheless, the market outlook remains optimistic, with forecasts suggesting a continued rise in Bitcoin's value.

 

[Z Forex]

US Indices

US Equity Futures Stable Ahead of Key Inflation Data
U.S. equity futures started the week with minimal changes, following a period where key stock benchmarks hit record highs, as investors awaited crucial inflation data expected later in the week. The stock market enters the last week of February on a strong note, thrilled by significant milestones and positive outcomes from the previous weeks, notably propelled by Nvidia's impressive earnings.
The focus now shifts to the longevity of the AI-driven momentum amid ongoing economic and inflationary concerns. In anticipation, investors are keenly awaiting the release of the monthly Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, the Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation, scheduled for Thursday. This week, attention is moving from corporate earnings to a variety of economic indicators, including the core PCE Price Index, a key metric monitored by the Fed for insights on inflation trends. Additionally, the U.S. GDP figures for the fourth quarter are set for release on Wednesday, and remarks from various central bank officials will be closely analyzed for hints about future interest rate directions.
Adding to the discourse, New York Fed President John Williams recently expressed optimism about the U.S. economy's trajectory and hinted at the possibility of easing interest rates later in the year. In a Friday interview, Williams emphasized the importance of adapting monetary policy based on consistent data indicating a decline in inflation towards the Fed's 2% target, suggesting a potential pullback from the current restrictive stance later this year.
The 18,000 level continues to act as resistance within the bullish channel, while 17,600 and 17,000 levels are identified as subsequent support levels. The Nasdaq continues to display strong momentum and a bullish direction, with the challenge lying in the sustainability of this movement.



Crypto

Ether Surges While Bitcoin Struggles Amid ETF Speculation
Bitcoin remained stable on Monday, except for Ether, which notably outperformed other cryptocurrencies. Bitcoin's price dipped close to 1% to $51,300. Despite positive risk sentiment in the broader markets, with the Dow Jones and S&P 500 at record highs, Bitcoin struggled to climb further. Over six months, Bitcoin has more than doubled, fueled by optimism for the approval of Bitcoin ETFs, anticipated to attract new investors.
Altcoins are leading the market's growth, with institutional speculators favoring Bitcoin and Ethereum, particularly on the prospect of Ether ETFs. Ether has seen a 35% increase in a month, outpacing Bitcoin's 20% rise, as traders speculate on ETF approvals. This shift towards smaller tokens suggests a widening crypto bull market.
Bitcoin is under uncertainty at its actual level. Additionally, reaching the resistance level of 52000 has also contributed to this correction. Although there is potential for further correction, it may rebound back to the 48000 level.

 

[Z Forex]

Global Financial Update: Dollar Stability, Inflation Trends, and Central Bank Moves Shape Market Outlook

The dollar remained stable on Friday, following reports that US inflation continues to persist, although at a gradually decreasing rate. This situation fuels optimism that the Federal Reserve may commence interest rate reductions in June. In contrast, the yen weakened, returning to the significant level of 150 against the dollar. Recent robust US economic indicators and persistent inflation have prompted traders to adjust their expectations for the Federal Reserve's easing cycle commencement in June. Upcoming payroll data will be crucial for assessing the state of the US labor market.
In Europe, inflation data from Germany, France, and Spain indicated a slowdown, hinting that the euro zone's inflation rate for February might decrease to approximately 2.5% from January's 2.8%, edging closer to the European Central Bank's (ECB) target of 2%. It is anticipated that the ECB will continue its policy normalization efforts. Despite expectations that ECB President Christine Lagarde will dismiss any rate cuts in the March meeting, financial markets speculate that reductions could begin as early as June. Focus is now shifting towards the ECB's upcoming interest rate decision.
In the UK, Bank of England (BoE) Deputy Governor Dave Ramsden expressed a desire to monitor inflation's persistence before altering the monetary policy stance. Despite market anticipations of imminent interest rate cuts, BoE officials have resisted, thereby supporting the Pound Sterling. The upcoming final UK Manufacturing PMI and a speech by BoE Chief Economist Huw Pill are expected for further direction.
Bank of Japan (BoJ) Governor Kazuo Ueda remarked that the 2% inflation target remains unmet, amid Japan's unexpected recession and speculation around the timing of the next rate hike, which has been delayed since 2007. Additionally, a recent surge in global equity markets has diminished the appeal of the safe-haven Japanese yen (JPY).
Gold prices remained above $2,040 an ounce, heading for a second consecutive weekly gain, as the latest U.S. inflation data met expectations, maintaining the likelihood of Federal Reserve rate cuts within the year. Market odds favor a two-thirds probability of a rate cut by the Fed in June, with no changes anticipated for March and May.
Oil prices saw a slight increase on Friday, poised for a modest weekly gain, as the market awaits OPEC+'s supply decision for the second quarter, amidst mixed demand signals from major consumers, the U.S. and China.
Cryptocurrency experienced a significant surge, with a 45% increase in February, marking its largest monthly gain in over three years. This boost was driven by the influx of investments into newly approved and launched exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in the United States.

 

[Z Forex]

US Indices

Stock Futures Dip After Month of Gains, Nasdaq Leads February Surge
Stock futures declined on Friday, following a month where the market celebrated its fourth consecutive month of gains, and the tech-centric Nasdaq Composite achieved its first closing high since November 2021. The month concluded on a positive note, fueled by enthusiasm over an artificial intelligence-driven rally and anticipations of interest rate reductions. The Nasdaq emerged as February's standout, recording a 6.1% increase, while the S&P 500 saw a 5.2% rise. These gains were bolstered by inflation data revealing the personal consumption expenditures price index, excluding food and energy rose 0.4% in January, aligning with market forecasts. Market participants are now keenly awaiting the ISM Manufacturing PMI data, expected later today, for deeper insights into the manufacturing sector's condition.
Federal Reserve officials have offered varied perspectives on the future of interest rates. Mary Daly emphasized the Fed's readiness to adjust rates as needed, though she sees no immediate requirement due to the economy's strength. Raphael Bostic hinted at possible rate cuts starting this summer, while Loretta Mester, despite recognizing the ongoing need to address inflation, expects three rate cuts this year, a stance unchanged by recent data.
The market is navigating through a phase of optimism, yet faces significant resistance around the 18,000 area, underscoring persistent uncertainties. Support levels at 17,600 and 17,000 are becoming increasingly significant, highlighting the Nasdaq's critical juncture. As the market stands at this crossroads, the direction it will take next is a subject of widespread speculation.
Crypto

Bitcoin Shows Strength Amid Volatility, Accumulation Signals Confidence
Bitcoin has shown remarkable strength amid market volatility, with significant investor accumulation indicating confidence. Analysis revealed over one million addresses have bought more than 671,000 BTC within the $60,334 to $62,155 range, forming a strong support zone. This level may prevent further price declines, reflecting investors' belief in Bitcoin's potential. The majority of Bitcoin, 94.66%, is held by investors profiting from their investments, suggesting a bullish sentiment and possibly more buying activity. With only a small portion of Bitcoin "At the Money" or "Out of the Money," selling pressure remains low. Bitcoin's price has surged to $62,058, a 47.05% increase over the last 30 days, fueled by inflows into Bitcoin spot ETFs and anticipation of the upcoming halving event, expected to drive prices higher due to reduced supply.
Bitcoin is currently advancing toward the $69,000 level, as the momentum is strong enough to provide further fuel. Any correction could bring the price back down to the $60,000 support level.

 

[Z Forex]

US Indices

Challenging Start for S&P 500 Futures in Q2 2024
S&P 500 futures declined on Wednesday, continuing Wall Street's challenging start to the second quarter of 2024. The release of ADP data in the morning, indicating that private payrolls in March exceeded expectations, highlighted the economy's strength. This development led to an increase in bond yields as investors' concerns about the Federal Reserve's rate cut trajectory intensified.
Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic, predicting only one rate cut this year in the fourth quarter, joined several Federal Reserve officials, including Chair Jerome Powell, in speaking at various events across the country on Wednesday. Their remarks add context to Tuesday’s market downturn, fueled by persistent inflation and solid manufacturing data, which suggested the Federal Reserve might delay reducing borrowing costs. Following this, the yield on the US Treasury 10-year note reached its highest point since November on Tuesday, and oil prices hit their peak since October.
Meanwhile, the Nasdaq is showing early signs of price accumulation and divergence, hinting at potential resilience or a future correction should the macroeconomic outlook shift significantly.

Oil

Oil Prices Rise Due to OPEC+ Output Cuts
Oil prices are higher after a bullish US crude stocks report, and OPEC+ keeps output cuts in place, as expected. Following its monitoring committee meeting, OPEC says it welcomed the intention of Iraq and Kazakhstan to compensate for recent overproduction, and that other participating countries that have overproduced would submit compensation plans by the end of the month. Moreover, concerns about escalating conflict in the Middle East with ongoing attacks on energy infrastructure in Russia and Ukraine are further strengthening prices.
While oil prices have experienced volatility due to recent market events, their future direction hinges on sustained fundamental factors. If prevailing market conditions persist, oil prices are expected to reach the 88 level soon.

Crypto

Surge in Bitcoin ETF Outflows Influences Cryptocurrency Performance
Bitcoin ETF outflows have surged, impacting the cryptocurrency's performance due to their strong correlation with Bitcoin's price. ARK Invest and Grayscale are among those experiencing notable outflows, with ARK's 21Shares Fund recording a record $87.5 million outflow, surpassing Grayscale's $81.9 million on April 2. This marked a second day of notable outflows for both funds, with ARK's outflows notably jumping from $0.3 million to $87.5 million in a single day, a dramatic increase.
Despite these outflows, other ETFs have witnessed positive flows, with an overall net positive flow on Tuesday. Since the approval of Spot Bitcoin ETFs in January, their influence on Bitcoin's price has been predominantly positive. However, historical outflows have led to price declines, suggesting the current trend could adversely affect Bitcoin's value unless inflows remain positive, potentially leading to further drops towards the $60,000 level.

 

[Z Forex]

US Indices

US Stocks Rebound Amid Earnings Season Kickoff and Market Caution
US stocks rebounded on Wednesday after the S&P 500 experienced three consecutive days of losses. The resurgence was fueled by gains in material and utility stocks, which each advanced by approximately 1%. In contrast, the real estate sector underperformed, slipping by about 0.3%.
The earnings season began on a strong note, boosting market sentiments. Although only less than 10% of S&P 500 companies have reported their earnings so far, a promising 75% have exceeded Wall Street expectations. United Airlines saw an impressive rise of over 8% after reporting a narrower-than-expected loss and outperforming revenue forecasts. Conversely, J.B. Hunt Transport Services dropped more than 7% due to not meeting analyst expectations on both revenue and earnings.
Amid these corporate results, the overall market outlook remains cautious. Investors are particularly concerned about the high interest rates and ongoing geopolitical uncertainties. Market volatility was evident on Tuesday following comments from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, who stated that the Fed requires more evidence of progress on inflation before considering rate cuts. These remarks did little to alleviate the prevailing market pessimism, emphasizing the role of corporate earnings in potentially driving future stock rallies.

Oil

WTI Crude Futures Extend Decline Amid Anticipation of Rising US Crude Inventories
WTI crude futures fell to $84.5 per barrel on Wednesday, continuing their downward trend for the third consecutive session. This decline comes in anticipation of a forthcoming government report that is expected to reveal an increase in US crude inventories.
Analysts predict that the upcoming report will show a rise in crude oil stocks by approximately 1.6 million barrels from the previous week. Supporting this view, recent data from the API's Weekly Statistical Bulletin indicated a significant increase in US crude oil stocks, which surged by 4.090 million barrels, following a 3.034 million barrel increase the week prior.
In the geopolitical arena, tensions remain high as the market closely monitors Israel's potential response to Iran's recent attack. Over the weekend, Iran executed a drone and missile strike, prompting Israel to promise retaliation. Meanwhile, the United States has urged caution in the escalating situation, adding another layer of complexity to global oil market dynamics.

Crypto

Bitcoin's Fourth Halving Stirs Excitement Amidst Cautionary Notes
As the cryptocurrency community gears up for Bitcoin’s fourth mining reward halving on April 20, there's palpable excitement about its potential impact on Bitcoin's price. This event will reduce the mining reward from 6.25 BTC to 3.125 BTC, halving the rate at which new bitcoins are created. Historically, such events have led to prolonged price increases.
However, a recent Goldman Sachs advisory, reported by CoinDesk, urges caution. While previous halvings have indeed triggered price surges, the details and scales of these increases varied greatly. Additionally, the current economic climate is significantly different from those of past halvings, characterized by high inflation and interest rates, which may dampen speculative enthusiasm.
Despite these cautionary notes, Bitcoin has already risen by 50% year-to-date, achieving a new high of $73,737 in March, driven by major inflows into US based spot ETFs. Some analysts believe this might lead to a "sell-the-fact" reaction post-halving.
Goldman Sachs highlights that while the halving underlines Bitcoin’s scarcity, broader market dynamics and ongoing ETF demand are likely to be more influential in driving Bitcoin's price in the medium term.

 

[Z Forex]

US Indices

S&P 500 Futures Rise with Earnings Expectation and Fed Meeting
S&P 500 futures rose on Monday morning, following the broad index’s best week in several months. Traders are now anticipating another eventful week filled with corporate earnings, crucial labor market data, and a Federal Reserve meeting.
Tesla surged over 13% in premarket trading after overcoming a significant regulatory obstacle for its fully self-driving technology in China. Apple, also set to release its financial results this week, saw its shares increase by approximately 2.5% before the market opening, supported by a bullish upgrade from investment firm Bernstein.
Monetary policy will be in the spotlight later this week, with the Federal Reserve scheduled to announce its latest interest rate decision on Wednesday. Although it is widely expected that the Fed will maintain the current borrowing costs, investors will be keenly watching Chair Jerome Powell’s press conference following the announcement. This comes just before the release of the nonfarm payrolls report for April, expected on Friday.
The Nasdaq has recovered from its recent median decline, partially offsetting previous losses as momentum continues. With strong corporate earnings results, major US indices may find additional support.





Oil

Oil Prices Dip Despite Tight Supply as Investors Eye Fed Meeting
Oil prices declined on Monday morning despite a tight supply, as investors adopted a cautious stance ahead of the Federal Reserve's policy meeting scheduled for this week, where interest rates are expected to remain unchanged. Additionally, geopolitical tensions appear to be lessening.
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is set to convene for its two-day meeting starting Tuesday, with a strong consensus reflected by the CME Fedwatch Tool, which indicates a 97.1% likelihood that the central bank will maintain the current interest rates. The focus remains on the timing and possibility of future rate cuts as inflation continues to exceed the 2% target.
On the geopolitical front, tensions are showing signs of easing. Reports indicate that Hamas will participate in ceasefire talks in Cairo. Concurrently, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken is planning to visit the region to persuade both Israel and Hamas to agree to a truce.






Crypto

Investor Sentiment Shifts in Digital Asset Market
Digital asset investment products have experienced outflows for three consecutive weeks, with Bitcoin leading the trend. Last week, the industry saw its largest outflows since March, totaling $435 million. This significant withdrawal indicates a cooling of investor enthusiasm following the initial excitement over the approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs.
Most notably, the United States accounted for $388 million of these outflows, although year-to-date inflows still stand at a substantial $13.6 billion. Exchange-traded products (ETPs), particularly sensitive to market sentiment, have seen trading volumes decline sharply from $18 billion to $11.8 billion in just one week.
Among specific products, BlackRock's IBIT, which had previously enjoyed a 71-day streak of inflows, faced a reversal with noticeable outflows. Grayscale's GBTC also reported significant withdrawals. Bitcoin's price has also fallen, dropping as low as $62,461.12—a 6% decrease, reflecting growing uncertainty among short-term investors.
Despite the downturn in Bitcoin and ETPs, some altcoins like Solana, Litecoin, and Chainlink continue to attract modest inflows, suggesting a divergent investor sentiment within the broader digital asset market.

 

[Z Forex]

EUR/USD

Euro Gains Ground Against Dollar Amid Fed's Dovish Tone and Economic Data
Despite expectations for an interest rate cut at the ECB's June meeting, the euro gained momentum against the dollar due to the Federal Reserve's dovish remarks and the unexpectedly high unemployment data signaling economic cooling. This led to a break in the short-term downtrend of the currency pair. For the continuation of this upward movement, the first intermediate resistance level to encounter is the range of 1.0790-1.0795. If this zone is surpassed and maintained, the broader resistance band of 1.0810-1.0815 will be monitored. Above this range, the next resistance level to watch is at 1.0840. However, in case of a reversal back downwards, the first support level to monitor is at 1.0760, followed by the range of 1.0725-1.0730 as the second support. Failure to hold above these levels could bring the 1.0700 level into play.
Top of Form

Resistance 3	Resistance 2	Resistance 1	Support 1	Support 2	Support 3
1.0840	1.0815	1.0790	1.0760	1.0725	1.0700

USD/JPY

USD/JPY Consolidates with Potential Head and Shoulders Pattern on Horizon

While USD/JPY has experienced two quiet days, there is no clear sign yet that the corrective movement has ended, as selling pressure from the middle channel band has led to the formation of a potential head and shoulders pattern on lower timeframes. For this pattern to be confirmed, the crucial level to watch for a breakout is considered to be in the range of 155.10-155.00. If this pattern is breached, the initial target would be the range of 154.45-154.35, with further downside potential to 153.75 below this level. However, if the pattern fails to materialize, and the ongoing corrective movement since 152.00 continues, a break above the range of 156.00-156.10 will be necessary. Beyond this level, subsequent levels to monitor would be the range of 156.90-157.00 and the 158.00 level.
Top of Form

Resistance 3	Resistance 2	Resistance 1	Support 1	Support 2	Support 3
158.00	157.00	156.00	155.00	154.35	153.75

GOLD

Gold Surges Amid Economic Concerns and Geopolitical Tensions
The recent economic indicators from the US signal a slowdown, ongoing ceasefire talks in Gaza without a resolution, central banks' gold purchases, and tensions in Ukraine have pushed gold to break above the 2330 resistance level, gaining significant momentum. In the event of potential pullbacks in this emerging trend, the first support level to watch would be at 2350. If there are declines below this level, the 2330 level would then serve as support, followed by 2310 below that. Turning to the upside targets and resistances, the initial resistance would be the downtrend resistance at 2370. Beyond this level, the range of 2388-2390 would be observed, with the psychological level of 2400-2410 range positioned above this range.
Top of Form

Resistance 3	Resistance 2	Resistance 1	Support 1	Support 2	Support 3
2410	2390	2370	2350	2330	2310

GBP/USD
GBP Rises Despite Unchanged Rates, Eyes Resistance Levels Amid Economic Data
Yesterday, despite interest rates being kept unchanged as expected, the pound, which lost value against the due to two members voting in favor of a rate cut unlike the one member in the previous meeting, turned upwards following economic cooling data from the US. For this upward movement to continue, the first level that needs to be surpassed is 1.2540, and breaking through this level could push the price up to 1.2600. Above this level, 1.2650 could be anticipated. On the downside, 1.2500 would serve as the initial support, while the range of 1.2466-1.2460 would act as support below this level. The breach of this range could bring the price down to the 1.2430 level.

Resistance 3	Resistance 2	Resistance 1	Support 1	Support 2	Support 3
1.2650	1.2600	1.2540	1.2500	1.2460	1.2430