Pre-Open US

[Z Forex]

US INDICES:

Stock Futures Rise Ahead of Federal Reserve's Interest Rate Decision
Stock futures gained on Wednesday morning ahead of the latest interest rate decision from the Federal Reserve. The 10-year Treasury yield experienced a decline on Wednesday, following its recent surge to the highest level since 2007 the day before. Investors are optimistic that market interest rates will begin to decrease as inflation subsides, and the Federal Reserve scales back its tightening measures.
There is a widespread expectation that, in its 2 p.m. ET announcement, the Federal Reserve will leave interest rates unchanged at their current level. However, investors will closely monitor the summary of economic projections and Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's press conference for hints regarding the possibility of one more rate hike this year.
In July, the Federal Reserve increased its benchmark rate to the highest point in over 22 years. Currently, futures prices suggest only a modest 27% chance of the Federal Reserve raising rates in November.
Trading activity has been relatively subdued throughout the week, with many investors adopting a cautious stance in anticipation of the Federal Reserve meeting.
In terms of technical analysis, the Nasdaq is showing a concentration of price on the daily chart and has retraced towards the 15225-support level, suggesting vulnerability in the price leading up to the Federal Reserve meeting tomorrow. The next significant level to monitor is the median line, followed by the 100-day moving average (100MA).

USOIL

Crude Oil Prices Dip as Market Anticipates Fed Meeting
Crude oil prices dipped today after reaching a 10-month high earlier this week. This drop was driven by profit-taking and anticipation of a Fed meeting to discuss interest rates.
In the US, declining crude oil inventories in Cushing, Oklahoma, have added bullish sentiment to oil prices, with Total Energies reportedly buying up U.S. crude due to supply tightness.
Higher oil prices could complicate the Fed's plan to stop interest rate hikes, as they may lead to higher energy bills and inflation. This situation remains fluid, and the market is closely watching the Fed's decision.
Overall, the oil market is taking a brief pause, awaiting the outcome of the Fed meeting, with prices hovering around $90 for WTI and $92 for Brent. Saudi Aramco CEO Amin Nasser revised the company's long-term demand outlook, projecting global demand to reach 110 million barrels per day by 2030, down from a previous estimate of 125 million barrels per day. Saudi Arabia's Energy Minister, Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman, defended OPEC+ supply cuts, emphasizing the need for light-handed regulation to curb volatility and expressing uncertainty about Chinese demand, European growth, and central bank actions to address inflation.
WTI after reaching the 92.6 level is coming back making a correction for the second day. 89.5 is the actual support level followed by 88.00.

Crypto

Cryptocurrency Prices Rise Ahead of Fed Decision, Potentially Signaling Increased Volatility
Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies saw gains ahead of the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision, potentially signaling increased volatility in crypto markets. Bitcoin's price recently surpassed $27,150, breaking free from the $26,000 range it had been trading in for the past month with low volatility. Analysts are closely watching the Federal Reserve's decision, as cryptocurrencies, like the Dow Jones Industrial Average and S&P 500, are expected to react to the central bank's rate announcement.
The Fed's decision, set to be revealed at 2 p.m. Eastern, is anticipated to maintain current borrowing costs, with attention shifting to the November announcement for potential rate hikes or measures to address inflation. Bitcoin's performance is closely tied to interest rates, with higher returns on safer investments reducing demand for riskier assets like cryptocurrencies.
Crypto markets could experience increased volatility, given the heavy bullish positioning in Bitcoin futures contracts, totaling over $3.2 billion. Binance, the world's largest crypto futures market, reported a three-day increase in Bitcoin open interest, reaching $3.3 billion. With many leveraged bullish bets, a hawkish move by the Fed could trigger widespread selling, leading to significant Bitcoin price declines.
BTC has recently shown a double top pattern on the weekly chart, The trend continues to be bearish supported by the 25000 while 27400 is the resistance area. The BTC will wait for today's Fed decision to find direction while the downtrend in the short term pays resistance level.

 

[Z Forex]

US INDICES:

Stock Futures Extend Declines as Investors Grapple with Fed's Rate Outlook
Stock futures declined on Thursday, intensifying losses for the week. This occurred as investors adjusted to the Federal Reserve's intention to maintain interest rates at elevated levels for a longer duration than previously anticipated.
On Wednesday, the three major stock indices concluded the trading session at their lowest points. This came after the Federal Reserve announced its decision to keep interest rates unchanged while predicting another rate hike before the year's end. Furthermore, the central bank indicated a reduction in the number of rate cuts expected next year. Essentially, this signals a need to maintain higher interest rates for an extended period due to the continued resilience of the economy and the necessity for a sustainable slowdown in inflation.
This week, the technology sector bore the brunt of the losses, as investors reconsidered their positions in growth-oriented stocks given the prospect of persistently high interest rates. Companies like Tesla, Alphabet, Meta Platforms, and Nvidia saw declines in premarket trading on Thursday.
Additionally, Klaviyo, a marketing automation firm that made its public market debut on Wednesday, experienced a nearly 2% decrease in premarket trading on Thursday. This added to a series of promising initial public offerings (IPOs) that witnessed declines during the course of this week.
Yesterday, Nasdaq declined, breaking its potential support level and heading toward the 100MA at 14750.

USOIL

Oil Prices Slide with Fed's Rate Hike Expectations and Stronger Dollar
Oil prices declined on Thursday, following the steepest drop in a month during the previous session. This drop was attributed to rising expectations of US interest rate hikes, which outweighed the impact of reductions in US crude inventories.
The Federal Reserve's decision to maintain interest rates in its recent Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, coupled with hints of a year-end rate hike, added pressure to oil prices. This stance, which could dampen economic growth and fuel demand, also pushed the U.S. dollar to its highest level since early March, increasing the cost of commodities like oil for buyers using other currencies.
Despite data from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) indicating a decrease in crude inventories in line with expectations, the oil market remained relatively unmoved. Analysts noted that the stock draw was driven primarily by robust oil exports, while gasoline and diesel inventories decreased due to autumn maintenance by refiners. However, concerns about tight global supply and ongoing production cuts by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies helped limit the decline in prices.
WTI continued the correction going toward the 88.00 support level. A breakout will take prices toward the 85 area.

Crypto

Cryptocurrencies Slip as Fed Decision Drives Risk-Off Sentiment
Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies faced a decline on Thursday as risk-sensitive assets weakened following the Federal Reserve's latest monetary policy decision. Cryptocurrencies now appear poised to revert to a pattern of range-bound trading that has defined recent months.
Over the past 24 hours, Bitcoin's price has dipped by 2%, settling around $26,728. This drop came after it peaked near $27,300 on Wednesday. The Federal Reserve chose to maintain interest rates but hinted at potential future increases. As a result, the largest digital asset finds itself back in the $26,000 zone, characterizing a month-long period of stagnant activity marked by low volatility and trading volumes in the crypto markets.
Cryptocurrencies, like the Dow Jones Industrial Average and S&P 500, reacted to the Fed's move, though the response was relatively subdued as the decision to pause rate hikes was largely anticipated. The future path of interest rates will continue to impact Bitcoin, with higher returns on risk-free assets potentially reducing the appeal of riskier crypto investments. The Fed's next monetary policy decision is not expected until November.
Bitcoin (BTC) remains entrenched in a bearish trend, with the 25000 level serving as support and the current resistance standing at 27200, marked by the third level of the downtrend line. In a broader, long-term perspective, BTC appears to be confined within a price range.

 

[Z Forex]

US INDICES:

Stock Futures Rebound Following Fed Rate Signals
S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq 100 futures both experienced gains of 0.2% and 0.4% respectively. These upward movements followed a three-day decline in all three stock indices. Investors were reacting to signals from the Federal Reserve indicating its intention to maintain higher interest rates, potentially exerting pressure on risk assets such as stocks.
This week, the S&P 500 and the technology-heavy Nasdaq Composite have declined by 2.7% and 3.5% respectively, marking their worst weekly performance since March and marking their third consecutive week of losses. Additionally, concerns arose among investors regarding a potential government shutdown, which could negatively impact consumer confidence and further slow down the economy. House Republican leaders initiated a recess on Thursday.
The Nasdaq continues its selloff and is approaching the support level at 14,630, while also approaching the neckline of a bearish pattern. A breach of this pattern would likely lead the price down towards the 14,400-14,260 area, where the 61.8% Fibonacci level represents the next substantial support.

USOIL

Oil Prices Face Weekly Decline with Fed's Prolonged Rate Signals
Oil prices faced a potential weekly loss due to the Federal Reserve's indication of prolonged high-interest rates. After three weeks of gains totaling 10%, profit-taking, and economic concerns dampened the rally. Russia's decision to limit fuel exports contributed to upward pressure on oil prices, and market fundamentals remained positive.
Both WTI and Brent benchmarks were set for a minor weekly decline following three weeks of strong gains, reaching their highest levels since November 2022. The rally, initially fueled by tightening crude and fuel markets and reduced U.S. inventories, was halted by the Fed's message of prolonged higher interest rates.
While the Fed kept rates unchanged at its September meeting, it signaled the possibility of another rate hike later in the year due to persistent inflation. This "higher for longer" message from the Fed weighed on risk assets, including crude oil.
Economic concerns in Europe, particularly fears of a recession in the Eurozone, could further pressure oil prices, according to market analyst Tina Teng. Additionally, profit-taking after the recent rally contributed to the decline in oil prices this week.
WTI is going back to the green side after finding support at 88.5. WTI's next level will be the 92.5 resistance point.


Crypto

Bitcoin Faces Challenges due to Rising Interest Rates
In a volatile economic climate with surging interest rates, Bitcoin and the broader cryptocurrency market face growing challenges. The recent 16-year high in the 10-year US Treasury yield signals a significant shift in finance.
The Federal Reserve's recent signals are notable, with the 10-year Treasury Yield hitting 4.49%, the highest since October 2007, and the Real 10-Year Yield at 2.11%, the highest since March 2009.
This environment poses substantial challenges for Bitcoin and crypto, as rising yields often deter speculative investments in favor of more stable assets. The "higher for longer" approach and the Fed's balance sheet reduction also affect crypto liquidity.
Moreover, concerns about a potential recession and the uncertainty of crypto trading during such periods add to the market's challenges.
BTC continues to be in a downtrend, with the resistance level at 27,500 representing the third level of the downtrend line. The next support is at 25,000, and if it gets broken, it could open the door for further sell-offs.

 

[Z Forex]

US INDICES:

Stock Futures Decline with Surging Treasury Yields, Concerns Over Prolonged Fed Tightening
Stock futures declined on Tuesday as traders closely monitored the surging Treasury yields, which reached their highest point in 16 years. S&P 500 futures decreased by 0.5%, and Nasdaq 100 futures fell by 0.6%.
The 10-year Treasury yield stood at 4.735%, marking its highest level since August 15, 2007. This significant increase in the benchmark yield has occurred over the past month as traders assess the possibility of a more prolonged Federal Reserve tightening.
Investors have become increasingly concerned about the potential impact of an extended period of tighter Federal Reserve policies, worrying that this could potentially lead the economy into a recession. Consequently, Treasury yields have reached levels not witnessed in over a decade.
On the economic front, investors are closely awaiting the release of the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey for August, scheduled for Tuesday morning. According to economists surveyed by Dow Jones, there is an anticipation of 8.8 million job openings.
On the weekly Nasdaq chart, a double top pattern has been confirmed, with the neckline located in the 14,250-14,500 area. A breakout above these levels could lead the price toward the 200-day moving average on the daily chart and the lower boundary of the current long-term bullish channel..

USOIL

Oil Prices Fall on Stronger Dollar, Global Economic Concerns, and Mixed Supply Signals
Oil prices declined on Tuesday due to a stronger U.S. dollar, global economic concerns, and mixed supply signals. Brent futures dropped 56 cents to $90.15 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude (WTI) fell 42 cents to $88.4 per barrel. The U.S. dollar reached a 10-month high against major currencies, making oil more expensive for other currency holders and potentially reducing demand. Turkey's announcement of resuming operations on a suspended Iraq pipeline also weighed on prices. OPEC+ is expected to maintain its output policy, but uncertainty prevails in the market. Saudi Arabia is likely to raise its November crude prices for Asia.
WTI is making the fourth consecutive selling day but finding support at the 87.8 level while forming a possible double top signaling a possible continuation of correction. If this happens the 86 level may play a solid support.

Crypto

Cryptocurrency Prices Decline with Surge in Bond Yields and Lackluster ETF Launch
Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies saw a decline on Tuesday following a recent rally, primarily due to a surge in bond yields, which added pressure to risk-sensitive assets. Additionally, the lackluster launch of a cryptocurrency exchange-traded fund (ETF) added to the negative sentiment.
Bitcoin's price dropped by 3% in the past 24 hours, falling below $27,600 after briefly reaching $28,500 on Monday. Despite this slide, Bitcoin remained above the $26,000 mark, which has been a significant trading level for nearly two months, characterized by low volatility and trading volumes.
Adding to concerns, the launch of an ETF holding futures contracts for Ether, the second-largest digital asset after Bitcoin, was underwhelming. While seven Ether futures ETFs began trading after receiving clearance from the Securities and Exchange Commission, they saw minimal trading activity, with less than $2 million in dollar value traded within their first 15 minutes. This muted launch contrasted with the successful debut of the ProShares Bitcoin Strategy ETF, which traded $200 million in volume within its initial 15 minutes.
Overall, these developments suggest a potential waning of investor interest in cryptocurrencies, including Ether, and raise doubts about the significance of a Bitcoin spot ETF as a market catalyst. Ether's price fell by 4% to $1,660.
Bitcoin found resistance levels at the 100 and 200MA on the daily chart at the 28070 level. The price is forming a range indicating uncertainty. 25000 and 28000 are the support resistance of the actual range.

 

[Z Forex]

US INDICES:

ADP Payroll Data Disappoints, Triggers Volatility as Treasury Yields Retreat
S&P 500 futures increased by 0.3%, while Nasdaq-100 futures saw a 0.5% rise.
According to ADP's report on Wednesday, only 89,000 private payrolls were added last month, significantly lower than the Dow Jones forecast of 160,000 and even fewer than the upwardly revised 180,000 payroll additions reported for August.
Following this data, Treasury yields retreated from their 2007-level highs. The 10-year Treasury yield fell to 4.756%, having previously crossed the 4.8% threshold on Tuesday.
The CBOE volatility index (VIX), known as Wall Street's "fear gauge," briefly reached a five-month high and exceeded its long-term average of 20, indicating growing caution and fear in the market.
The energy sector continues to experience selling pressure this week as the oil market faces a selloff, driven by concerns about demand due to growth projections falling below levels that can sustain high oil demand. Mega-cap growth stocks are under pressure in premarket trading, particularly Apple, following weaker demand for iPhones in the US. Additionally, the real estate sector is facing a selloff due to mortgage rates reaching 7.72%, a level not seen since 2001.
On the weekly Nasdaq chart, a double top pattern has been confirmed, with the neckline located in the 14,250-14,500 area. A breakout above these levels could lead the price toward the 200-day moving average on the daily chart and the lower boundary of the current long-term bullish channel.

USOIL

Saudi Arabia and Russia Extend Crude Output Cuts Following Demand Concerns
Oil prices dropped on Wednesday as Saudi Arabia and Russia pledged to extend crude output cuts until the end of 2023. However, concerns about weakening demand due to macroeconomic challenges offset these production-cut commitments.
OPEC+ Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee (JMMC) held an online meeting, keeping the group's output policy unchanged. The JMMC is scheduled to meet again on November 26.
Investors are shifting their focus from short-term supply concerns to broader economic factors such as prolonged higher interest rates and their impact on the macroeconomic environment. They are also closely watching how OPEC+ plans to address these issues in their November 26 meeting, according to Investec analyst Callum Macpherson.
Saudi Arabia confirmed its commitment to a voluntary 1 million barrel per day (bpd) crude supply cut until the end of the year. Russia, on the other hand, will maintain its current 300,000 bpd crude export cuts until year-end and review its voluntary 500,000 bpd output cut from April to November.
WTI continues the selloff, breaking the neck of the double top pattern as it goes toward the 86 level, which might play as a solid support.

Crypto

Bitcoin Holds Steady Due to Stock Market Selloff and Rising Bond Yields
Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies remained stable on Wednesday despite a stock market selloff driven by rising bond yields. Bitcoin's price experienced a slight drop of less than 1% over the past 24 hours, settling at $27,550. It has primarily fluctuated between $27,300 and $27,700. Importantly, Bitcoin has held above the $26,000 range, which had defined trading for over a month, although it slipped from its recent peak above $28,000 earlier in the week.
While traditional stock indices like the Dow Jones and S&P 500 experienced declines this week, Bitcoin remained relatively steady, not far from recent highs, despite the surge in bond yields. The 10-year U.S. Treasury note's yield reached 4.8% for the first time since 2007, raising concerns about interest rates.
Higher bond yields usually pressure risk-sensitive assets, but cryptocurrencies have held their ground. Traders maintain optimism following a strong September, hinting at potential gains in the coming month.
Overall, these developments suggest a potential waning of investor interest in cryptocurrencies, including Ether, and raise doubts about the significance of a Bitcoin spot ETF as a market catalyst. Ether's price fell by 4% to $1,660.
Bitcoin found resistance levels at 100 and 200MA on the daily chart at the 28070 level. The price is forming a range indicating uncertainty. 25000 and 28000 are the support resistance of the actual range.

 

[Z Forex]

US INDICES:

Stock Futures Inch Lower After Jobless Claims Data, Recovering from Previous Session
S&P 500 futures dipped by 0.2%, and Nasdaq-100 futures decreased by 0.1%. Jobless claims closely matched expectations, with initial jobless claims at 207,000 for the week ending September 30, marking a 2,000 increase from the previous week but still close to the forecasted 210,000 by economists surveyed by Dow Jones.
Stocks rebounded from the prior session, with the S&P 500 gaining 0.8% on Wednesday, the Dow rising 0.4%, breaking a three-day losing streak. Among the major indices, the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite was the top performer, surging by 1.35%.
The decline in Treasury yields also played a role, as the 10-year Treasury note rate retreated from levels last seen in 2007. This followed ADP's report of private job growth totaling 89,000 for September, significantly below the Dow Jones estimate of 160,000. This data reassured investors that the labor market is easing.
On the weekly Nasdaq chart, a double top pattern has been confirmed, with the neckline located in the 14,250-14,500 area. A breakout above these levels could lead the price towards the 200-day moving average on the daily chart and the lower boundary of the current long-term bullish channel.





USOIL

Oil Prices Continue Decline with Weak Demand and OPEC+ Output Policy
Oil prices dropped over $1 on Thursday, following significant losses the previous day, as concerns about weak demand outweighed the impact of OPEC+ maintaining oil output cuts.
The previous day, oil saw its largest daily drop in over a year, driven by a gloomier macroeconomic outlook and concerns about fuel demand. This occurred after an OPEC+ panel meeting, where the group, led by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and Russia, made no changes to its oil output policy. Saudi Arabia pledged to maintain a voluntary cut of 1 million barrels per day until the end of 2023, and Russia would keep a 300,000 bpd export curb until the end of December.
Analysts noted that the softer prices could reduce the likelihood of OPEC easing supply constraints. Additionally, economic data indicated a shrinking Eurozone economy and a significant drop in U.S. gasoline demand.
Overall, the uncertainty surrounding the demand outlook, coupled with weaker economic data, is making it challenging for oil prices to rebound. A crude oil pipeline from Iraq to Turkey, suspended for six months, is now ready for operation, according to the Turkish energy minister.
WTI experienced a significant sell-off and is currently finding support at the last resistance level seen on August 10th. A potential recovery could push the price towards the $86 level, while a breakout might lead it towards the $78.60 level.



Crypto

Bitcoin's Resilience Against Inflation Compared to USD
Bitcoin has shown resilience against inflation when compared to the U.S. dollar, as per the St. Louis Federal Reserve's analysis from June 2022. They assessed the purchasing power of both currencies using the price of a dozen eggs. Surprisingly, Bitcoin displayed a more favorable trend.
Since January 2021, the price of eggs in Bitcoin, measured in satoshis, has fluctuated notably, ranging from 2829 to 6086 satoshis, accounting for transaction fees. Post-December 2022, the number of satoshis needed for a dozen eggs decreased more compared to the equivalent USD.

As of August 2023, Bitcoin holders require 70% fewer satoshis for the same eggs, while USD holders need 58% less USD. However, comparing egg costs to the start of 2021, both currencies have seen increases, with a 39% hike for Bitcoin and a 73% surge for the USD. This comparison has limitations due to the chosen timeframe.
In a longer-term perspective, egg prices today are lower than during Bitcoin's last pre-halving year in 2019, making the 2023 inflation relatively insignificant. In dollar terms, egg prices have notably risen, with the mid-2019 average just above $1.20 per dozen, which is 40% less than the current price.
The U.S. dollar index (DXY) is nearing one-year highs, drawing attention to the greenback. Analysts suggest foreign states may address currency imbalances due to their own struggling currencies. The U.S. economy is showing signs of concern, with a 2024 recession becoming increasingly likely, as per the Fed's data, indicating odds of nearly 60% in September. Bond yields are also on the rise in what's termed "bear steepening."
Bitcoin encountered resistance levels at the 100 and 200-day moving averages (MA) on the daily chart around the 28070 level. The price is currently consolidating within a range, which is a sign of uncertainty in the market. The support and resistance levels for the current range are at 25000 and 28000, respectively.

 

[Z Forex]

US INDICES:

U.S. Stock Futures Steady as Markets Await Jobs Data
U.S. stock futures remained stable on Friday as investors awaited crucial jobs data that could sway future interest rate decisions. The forthcoming nonfarm payrolls report is anticipated to show a gain of 170,000 jobs in the previous month, down from August's 187,000. This data follows mixed job-related reports earlier in the week, where job openings exceeded expectations but private employment fell short, as per ADP figures.
It's essential to recognize that today's job numbers won't be the sole factor influencing the Federal Reserve's future rate actions. Upcoming inflation data, expected next week, will also play a pivotal role in shaping their decisions.
In Thursday's trading, consumer staples firms dragged down the broader market index. Despite robust earnings from Conagra Brands and Constellation Brands, both firms cited shifting consumer behavior. Walmart reported reduced food shopping demand due to diabetes drugs like Ozempic and Wegovy, impacting PepsiCo and Coca-Cola stocks, which fell around 5% this week.
Exxon Mobil is closing in on a substantial $60 billion deal to acquire Pioneer Natural Resources, potentially reshaping energy stocks. This could be Exxon's largest deal since the 1999 merger of Exxon and Mobil.
The real estate sector continues to struggle due to rising yields affecting mortgage rates, with the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage now averaging 7.49%, up from 7.31% last week. Over the past three months, real estate has been the poorest-performing U.S. stock market sector, trailing even utilities.
On the weekly Nasdaq chart, a double top pattern has been confirmed, with the neckline located in the 14,250-14,500 area. A breakout above these levels could lead the price toward the 200-day moving average on the daily chart and the lower boundary of the current long-term bullish channel. The SP500 index is nearing a historical level reached in the last May at 4200, representing a critical level for price action.
USOIL

Crude Oil Prices Set for Steepest Weekly Decline Since March
Crude oil prices are on track for their biggest weekly drop since March. This decline is driven by concerns over weak demand, despite OPEC+'s decision to limit supply. Brent crude has lost nearly 12% of its value this week, while West Texas Intermediate is down almost 9%.
The downturn started when the EIA reported sluggish U.S. gasoline demand, which swiftly shifted market sentiment. A bond market selloff also raised concerns about the global economy and its impact on oil demand.
Inflation in the United States is affecting consumer spending, including on fuel, adding to the demand woes. Gasoline inventories surged by 6.5 million barrels, the largest build since January 2022, and U.S. gasoline demand hit its lowest point since the early 2000s, according to the EIA.
Additionally, Russia allowed diesel fuel exports via ports again after a recent ban, but gasoline exports remained restricted.
The upcoming jobs report for September from the Bureau of Labor Statistics may lead to more price swings if it indicates a tight labor market, potentially prompting rate hikes that would further pressure crude oil prices. Additionally, the focus will shift to U.S. inflation data and economic updates from China in the coming week.
While OPEC+ has maintained its production cuts, economic concerns are now the primary focus for traders as the market tightens.
WTI made a huge selloff and right now finds its support at the last resistance level of 10 August. A comeback may take the price toward the 86 and a breakout will take it toward the 78.60 level.
Crypto

Bitcoin Holds Steady Before U.S. Jobs Report Release
On a mixed day for cryptocurrencies, Bitcoin experienced a slight decline on Friday as traders awaited the release of the U.S. jobs report for September, which was expected to impact bond prices and the broader market. Bitcoin's price stood at $27,623, down 0.1% over the past 24 hours, remaining resilient in the face of a stock market selloff driven by rising bond yields.
The upcoming September jobs report, awaited by the market, would test Bitcoin's role as a risk asset or a secure refuge. The report's results might influence Bitcoin's future price direction, potentially triggering a breakout and pushing its price to test $30,000, according to Bitbank analyst Yuya Hasegawa.
Bitcoin found resistance levels at the 100 and 200MA on the daily chart at the 28070 level. The price is forming a range indicating uncertainty. 25000 and 28000 are the support resistance of the actual range.

 

[Z Forex]

US INDICES:

Stock Futures Decline with Israel-Hamas Conflict and Market Uncertainty
Stock futures experienced a decline on Monday due to the ongoing Israel-Hamas conflict, which added pressure to an already delicate market grappling with inflation and rising interest rates. S&P 500 futures saw a decrease of 0.5%, while Nasdaq 100 futures slipped by approximately 0.7%.
The Israeli-Palestinian conflict escalated into a full-scale war on Saturday following an invasion by the militant group Hamas, catching Israel off guard.
In response to the attack, major defense and oil companies saw significant gains in premarket trading, with Lockheed Martin and Northrop Grumman Corp rising by 4.9% and 3.6%, respectively. Marathon Oil and Occidental Petroleum also climbed, gaining 3.6% and 3.4%, respectively.
Despite a stronger-than-expected jobs report from the previous week, which initially pushed up Treasury yields and caused a dip in stocks, both of these indexes concluded the week on a higher note. The report indicated robust hiring, with the economy adding 336,000 jobs the previous month. Additionally, wages increased at a slower pace, offering investors optimism that inflation might be stabilizing.
The price range on the daily chart and the double top on the weekly chart continue to be the only significant indicators so far due to uncertainty. The neckline is located in the 14,500 area. A breakout above these levels could potentially push the price toward the 200-day moving average on the daily chart and the lower boundary of the current long-term bullish channel. Additionally, the S&P 500 index is approaching a historical level last seen in May at 4,200, which represents a critical level for price action.


USOIL

Middle East Conflict Sparks 4% Surge in Oil Prices
Oil prices surged 4% due to clashes between Israel and Hamas, sparking concerns of wider Middle East conflict. This reversed the prior week's 11% Brent and 8% WTI drops, tied to global demand fears amid a darkening economic outlook. Supply demand stayed steady, but Tamas Varga of PVM noted Middle East tension consistently boosts oil prices.
Hamas launched a major attack on Israel, prompting Israeli airstrikes on Gaza. This might disrupt U.S. efforts to mediate Saudi-Israel reconciliation, including a U.S.-Saudi defense deal linked to normalized relations with Israel. Saudi Arabia showed a willingness to raise oil production in this deal. Saudi Arabia and Russia agreed to 1.3 million bpd production cuts through 2023.
Uncertainty surrounds the oil price rally's duration, considering potential delays in Saudi-Israel reconciliation and Saudi Arabia's commitment to an additional 1 million bpd cuts if prices fall.
Concerns also arise about Iran's involvement. Expanding the conflict to Iran could risk up to 3% of global oil supply, and broader Strait of Hormuz disruption could affect 20%, warns analyst Saul Kavonic.
Additionally, OPEC raised long-term oil demand forecasts, contrasting the IEA's suggestion of demand peaking this decade.
WTI made a strong comeback, gaining more than 4% and touching the 200MA on the 4-hour chart. The long bullish trend still appears to be healthy, and it seems to be returning to a bullish track.

Crypto

Digital Asset Funds Attract $78 Million in Inflows
In recent news, digital asset investment funds saw substantial inflows, reaching $78 million in the second week, with Bitcoin leading at $43 million. Bitcoin trading volumes rose 16% over the past week. Some invested $1.2 million in short Bitcoin positions. Bitcoin's price increased from around $26,200 in September to about $28,400 in October.
Deribit, a crypto options exchange, plans to introduce options for altcoins like XRP, SOL, and MATIC. They seek a brokerage license in the EU.
The U.S. DOJ opposes including Anthropic AI's fundraising in Sam Bankman-Fried's defense, claiming the $500 million investment used customer funds, not for compensation.
Binance's three-month Bitcoin futures trading has a 5%+ premium, surpassing the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield, matching the two-year Treasury, indicating market shifts in futures trading.
Bitcoin continues hovering around the resistance level at the 100 and 200MA on the daily chart at the 28070 level. The price is forming a range indicating uncertainty. 25000 and 28000 are the support resistance of the actual range.

 

[Z Forex]

US INDICES:

Exxon Mobil's $59.5 Billion Merger with Pioneer Natural Resources
S&P 500 futures added 0.3% and Nasdaq-100 futures gained 0.4%.
Exxon Mobil agreed to buy shale driller Pioneer Natural Resources in an all-stock transaction worth $59.5 billion, the largest merger announced on Wall Street this year. Pioneer shares were up 2% in early trading. Exxon was down by about 1%.
The 10-year Treasury yield was down more than 9 basis points to 4.56%. A day earlier, the benchmark U.S. yield fell, giving stocks a boost.
Wall Street will get another clue into the state of inflation on Wednesday with September’s producer price index report. Economists expect that the PPI gained 0.3% last month, according to Dow Jones.
In addition, minutes from the Federal Reserve’s latest meeting due in the afternoon will offer further insight into the central bank’s hiking cycle after it chose to skip an interest rate increase last month.
Traders are also looking ahead to Thursday’s consumer price index report for September.
The price range on the daily chart and the double top on the weekly chart continue to be the only significant indicators so far due to uncertainty. The neckline is located in the 14,500 area. A breakout above these levels could potentially push the price toward the 200-day moving average on the daily chart and the lower boundary of the current long-term bullish channel. Additionally, the S&P 500 index is approaching a historical level last seen in May at 4,200, which represents a critical level for price action.

USOIL

Oil Prices Steady Following Israel-Hamas Conflict as Russia and Saudi Arabia Discuss Impact
Oil prices remained relatively stable as traders monitored the ongoing conflict between Palestinian militants and Israel. Prices experienced a surge on Monday following Hamas' weekend attack in southern Israel, but they moderated somewhat on Tuesday.
Amid the escalating Israel-Hamas conflict, major oil exporters Russia and Saudi Arabia are scheduled to hold discussions about the oil market and oil prices on Wednesday. Both nations are participating in an energy conference in Moscow and will convene a meeting of their inter-governmental commission, as reported.
Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak announced that the discussions between Russia and Saudi Arabia would focus on assessing the impact of the Middle East conflict.
WTI after the strong comeback, gaining more than 4% and touching the 200MA on the 4-hour chart today is coming back from that level but the long bullish trend is still healthy.

Crypto

JPMorgan Conducts Blockchain-Based Collateral Settlement Transaction
On Wednesday, JPMorgan conducted its inaugural live blockchain-based collateral settlement transaction involving BlackRock and Barclays, the U.S. banking giant announced. BlackRock utilized JPMorgan's Ethereum-based Onyx blockchain and Tokenized Collateral Network (TCN) to tokenize shares from one of its money market funds. Subsequently, these tokens were transferred to Barclays Plc to serve as collateral in an over-the-counter (OTC) derivatives trade.
On Tuesday, Coinbase encountered a new obstacle in its legal battle concerning the regulatory status of cryptocurrencies. U.S. state authorities and legal experts have now joined the federal securities regulators in asserting that the company operated an unregistered exchange unlawfully. The Securities and Exchange Commission's actions against one of the nation's largest cryptocurrency exchanges are perceived as crucial to the crypto sector's future. The industry accuses the agency of enforcing regulations in the absence of new laws from the U.S. Congress.
Bitcoin continues hovering around the resistance level at the 100 and 200MA on the daily chart at the 28070 level. The price is forming a range indicating uncertainty. 25000 and 28000 are the support resistance of the actual range.

 

[Z Forex]

US INDICES:

S&P 500 and Nasdaq Futures Gain 0.4% as Inflation Data Awaited

S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 futures gained nearly 0.4% each.

The consumer price report for September will be released Thursday morning. Economists surveyed by Dow Jones are forecasting a 0.3% month-over-month increase for September and a 3.6% rise from the prior year. Investors believe that the strength of inflation indicated in the report will play a key part in whether the Federal Reserve decides to maintain or raise interest rates at its two-day meeting beginning Oct. 31.

The data comes following a stronger-than-expected producer price index for September.

Atlanta Fed president Raphael Bostic and Boston Fed president Susan Collins will be giving remarks Thursday afternoon, which could give Wall Street more insight into the central bank’s stance.

On a daily basis, a possible descending triangle is forming. The support level is at 14,500, while the resistance level is at 15,300, where the median line of the long bullish channel and the downtrend line coincide. Whether there is a bounce from this level or a breakout will depend on current macroeconomic developments and the pricing of upcoming meetings.


USOIL

Oil Prices Rise Following Growing Concerns Over Israel-Palestine Conflict

Oil prices are showing a gradual increase on Thursday, driven by concerns highlighted by the IEA regarding heightened market risks due to the escalating Israel-Palestine conflict. Additionally, OPEC producer Saudi Arabia has committed to maintaining market stability, aiming to prevent supply disruptions resulting from the Israel-Palestinian war.

According to the EIA, global oil demand is projected to rise by 3% to 10% from 2022 to 2030 and by 6% to 42% from 2022 to 2050. The most significant growth is anticipated in the scenario of high economic expansion, as outlined in the EIA's report.

Volatility is accelerating in the oil price and direction will be clearer after the geopolitical tensions calm down. 83 as support and 87 as resistance are right now in the price range.

Crypto

Cryptocurrencies Experience Sixth Consecutive Day of Losses as Bitcoin Falls Below $26,750

Bitcoin and various cryptocurrencies faced a sixth consecutive day of losses on Thursday, despite other risk-sensitive assets performing well. This marked a reversal from a recent bullish trend as cryptos returned to their usual trading ranges.

In the past 24 hours, Bitcoin's price dropped by 1.5% to fall below $26,750, reaching its lowest point this month after nearing $28,000 over the weekend.

Returning to the $26,000 range is concerning as Bitcoin had previously stagnated in this zone for over a month due to low volatility and waning investor interest. In late September, there was hope for a bullish streak pushing towards the psychologically important $30,000 level.

Interestingly, Bitcoin's performance has diverged from the stock market, which saw four consecutive days of gains in the Dow Jones Industrial Average and S&P 500. Some suggest crypto traders are becoming cautious due to potential conflicts in the Middle East affecting demand for high-risk assets, or it could be that Bitcoin has lost its allure.

The release of U.S. consumer-price index (CPI) data on Thursday may push Bitcoin above $27,000 or anchor it around $26,000, despite recent macroeconomic developments. Hopes of the Federal Reserve not raising interest rates have boosted stocks but had limited impact on cryptocurrencies, which often decline when borrowing costs rise.

Bitcoin continues hovering around the resistance level at the 100 and 200MA on the daily chart at the 28070 level. The price is forming a range indicating uncertainty. 25000 and 28000 are the support resistance of the actual range.

 

[Z Forex]

US INDICES:

S&P 500 futures rose by 0.2%, while Nasdaq-100 futures remained relatively stable. This week marks the beginning of a busy earnings season, with 11% of the S&P 500 companies scheduled to release their results. Notable companies reporting this week include Johnson & Johnson, Bank of America, Netflix, and Tesla, with Charles Schwab set to report its results on Monday morning.

On Wall Street, some are preparing for increased volatility towards the end of the year, attributed to rising yields and oil prices, persistent inflation, and ongoing conflicts in the Middle East. However, focusing on corporate earnings and monitoring the Federal Reserve's actions regarding interest rates can provide investors with short-term optimism.

On a daily basis. A descending triangle is forming. The resistance level of 15,300, where the median line of the long bullish channel and the downtrend line coincide played as expected a solid level of resistance and price coming back. Next support level at 14850 and 14450.

USOIL

​

WTI futures held steady above $87 per barrel on Monday following a 6% surge on Friday. This increase is in part due to concerns over the Israel-Hamas conflict potentially escalating further, posing significant geopolitical risks to oil markets. Israeli airstrikes on Gaza continued on Monday as diplomatic efforts for a ceasefire failed. U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken is set to return to Israel to discuss the situation. Meanwhile, the United States imposed sanctions on tankers carrying Russian oil priced above $60 per barrel. This move aimed to close loopholes in a mechanism designed to restrict Moscow's revenue from energy sales. In addition, Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak expressed the importance of OPEC+ in stabilizing the oil market.

Volatility is continuing in the Oil price and direction will be clearer after the geopolitical tensions calm down. 83 as support and 87 as resistance are right now the price range.

Crypto

Bitcoin (BTC) approached the $28,000 level on Monday, but later pulled back. Crypto enthusiasts are speculating on the launch of a major spot Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) in the U.S. soon. Bearish trades in Bitcoin futures resulted in a $27 million loss for traders during Asian morning hours. Open interest, which measures unsettled futures contracts and indicates market liquidity, increased by 6.7% over the last 12 hours, reflecting greater trader engagement.

Bitcoin led the gains among major cryptocurrencies, with Solana (SOL) and Tron (TRX) also experiencing price increases. SOL received a boost when a bankruptcy estate linked to the FTX crypto exchange staked nearly 10% of its SOL holdings, reducing concerns about a token sell-off.

Bitcoin Cash (BCH) and Bitcoin SV (BSV), both Bitcoin forks, saw gains of up to 11%, while Rollbit's RLB tokens, associated with a crypto casino, surged by as much as 14%.

In a different development, Big Time's BIGTIME tokens skyrocketed by 350% shortly after being listed on the influential Coinbase exchange. However, analysts at Delphi Digital expressed concerns about trading the token, citing a lack of reliable information about its tokenomics, vesting schedule, allocations, and circulating supply.

Bitcoin trading around toward 28000. The price is tapping for the 4th time the 28000-resistance level. A breakout will take the price toward the 29800 level. The weekly chart also showing a range of price where the 100MA is forming a resistance level.

 

[Z Forex]

US INDICES:

S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq-100 futures both experienced declines, with a 0.3% drop for the S&P 500 futures and a 0.5% decrease for Nasdaq-100 futures. United Airlines shares fell over 5% in premarket trading due to disappointing guidance, while Procter & Gamble saw a 1% increase after exceeding analyst expectations for the quarter. Netflix and Tesla are scheduled to report their earnings after the market closes on Wednesday. Chip stocks like Nvidia and Advanced Micro Devices faced a sell-off as the U.S. announced plans to tighten restrictions on AI chip exports to China.

On Tuesday, bond yields rose due to stronger-than-expected September retail sales, with the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note reaching its highest level since October 6. Wall Street is closely monitoring the ongoing Israel-Hamas conflict, and analysts are reviewing third-quarter earnings reports, including those from financial institutions like Bank of America, Goldman Sachs, and Bank of New York Mellon. So far, slightly over 10% of S&P 500 companies have reported results, and approximately 78% of them have exceeded analyst expectations. Wall Street is also awaiting housing starts and building permits data for September on the economic front.

On a daily basis. A descending triangle is forming. The resistance level of 15,300, where the median line of the long bullish channel and the downtrend line coincide played as expected a solid level of resistance and price coming back. Next support level at 14850 and 14450.

USOIL

​

WTI benchmark surged to close $90 per barrel due to increasing Middle East conflict risks potentially disrupting oil supplies. Iran has called for an oil embargo on Israel, contributing to the price jump. This increase in oil prices is a result of escalating tensions in the Middle East and concerns over the Israel-Hamas conflict expanding, potentially involving Iran. Additionally, U.S. crude stocks fell significantly more than expected, supporting the upward trend in oil prices. On the demand side, China's economy showed signs of growth, but analysts remain cautious due to challenges in the real estate sector and expectations of interest rate hikes in the U.S.

Strong volatility continues but in short term a bullish trend formed taking the price beyond the 88 level. The 94-resistance level can be the long target for the actual short-term trend.

Crypto

Bitcoin reached a two-month high, surging to $28,325, driven by amendments in spot Bitcoin ETF filings. Asset management giant Fidelity, following the footsteps of Ark Invest and Invesco, filed an amendment for its Wise Origin Bitcoin Trust, focusing on customer Bitcoin custody and regulatory risk disclosure. This move signifies ongoing discussions with the SEC, boosting trader sentiment. Some firms anticipate that SEC approval of a spot Bitcoin ETF could add over $1 trillion to the current $1.1 trillion market capitalization. Despite false rumors earlier in the week, Bitcoin saw a nearly 10% increase, reflecting significant investor interest. Elevated trading volumes suggest that Bitcoin could reach $29,400 in the near future, with a bullish market dominance around $28,500.

Volatility on Bitcoin increased and the price hit the 30000 targets before coming back 28325. The 100MA on the weekly chart will be the challenge for the beginning for a solid bullish momentum.

 

[Z Forex]

US INDICES:

S&P 500 Futures Stable as Markets Await Jerome Powell's Comments on Interest Rates

S&P 500 futures traded without significant change on Thursday morning as Wall Street kept a close eye on a crucial bond yield benchmark and awaited comments from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell. Futures linked to the broad market remained relatively stable, while Nasdaq-100 futures showed a minor increase of 0.1%.

Traders are eagerly anticipating Powell's remarks for insights into the future of interest rates. Despite some improvements in inflation indicators, the persistent rise in Treasury yields has led to questions about the central bank's potential monetary policy decisions. Additionally, Thursday is expected to bring data on weekly jobless claims and existing home sales for September.

Tesla, a major player in the electric vehicle industry, saw its stock drop by nearly 7% as the company fell short of earnings and revenue expectations in the third quarter. CEO Elon Musk also issued a warning that the company's Cybertruck might not generate significant positive cash flow more than a year after production begins.

Conversely, Netflix shares experienced a significant surge of over 13% after the streaming giant reported third-quarter earnings that exceeded estimates. The company's strong growth in ad-tier subscriptions contributed to this positive performance.

A descending triangle is forming. The resistance level of 15,300, where the median line of the long bullish channel and the downtrend line coincide played as expected a solid level of resistance and price coming back. The next support level is at 14850 and 14450.

USOIL

​

Crude Oil Prices Slide as OPEC Rejects Iran's Call for Israel Oil Embargo

Crude oil prices edged lower after the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries showed no signs of supporting Iran's call for an oil embargo on Israel.

Oil prices saw an increase the previous day following Iran's foreign minister's proposal for an oil embargo on Israel. Although the volumes at risk are minimal, this move heightened regional tensions and raised market concerns.

Meanwhile, the US Energy Information Administration reported a drawdown in crude inventories of 4.5 million barrels last week. Gasoline and distillate stockpiles also fell 2.4 million barrels and 3.2 million barrels, respectively. Supplies at the key Cushing hub are nearing minimum operating requirements, the bank noted.

Strong volatility continues and WTI is losing close to 1.75% today. No clear direction can be seen with an uncertain geopolitical outlook.

Crypto

False SEC Approval Report Sparks Bitcoin Surge and Raises ETF Expectations

Monday's false report of U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) approval for BlackRock's Bitcoin ETF caused a 10% price spike to $30,000, settling at $28,000. This revealed concerns about market manipulation and surveillance issues. On the positive side, it indicated significant capital readiness for an ETF approval, challenging the idea that it was already priced in.

Dick Lo, TDX Strategies' CEO, noted that the event gave a preview of what might happen upon ETF approval, suggesting that the market could be underinvested and open to building positions.

Speculation mounts for SEC approval of the first U.S. spot ETF early next year after the regulator missed a deadline related to Grayscale Investments. Blockware Solutions analysts agree, stating that BTC's price will surge rapidly upon approval. In the short term, Bitcoin options pricing indicates bullish sentiment, with call options favored. Ether options show improved sentiment, though less bullish than Bitcoin.

Volatility on Bitcoin increased, and the price hit the 30000 target before coming back to the 28325 level. The 100MA on the weekly chart will be the challenge for the beginning of a solid bullish momentum.

 

[Z Forex]

US INDICES:

Market Turbulence and Tech Earnings Awaited Amid Rising Treasury Yields
On Monday, stock futures declined as Treasury yields increased, and traders awaited earnings reports from major tech companies. S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq 100 futures both dropped by 0.8% and 0.9%, respectively.
The 10-year Treasury note yield rose approximately 9 basis points, surpassing the critical 5% threshold. Yields for the 2-year note and 30-year bond also saw increases.
This market shift coincides with traders evaluating potential future monetary policy actions by the Federal Reserve. Fed Chair Jerome Powell stated last week that high inflation persists and hinted at the potential necessity of slowing economic growth to address these pressures.
Wall Street had a challenging week, with the S&P 500 recording a 2.4% decline, marking its first losing week in three, while the Nasdaq Composite dropped by 3.2%, its second consecutive weekly loss.
Major tech giants, including Alphabet, Amazon, Meta, and Microsoft, are expected to release their earnings reports, which will be closely watched by investors.
Traders are also preparing for the release of key economic data this week, including Thursday's third-quarter advance report for U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) and Friday's release of the personal consumption expenditure, an inflation measure. Investors are concerned that stronger-than-expected data could keep the possibility of another interest rate hike this year on the table.
On a daily basis, a descending triangle is taking shape. The resistance at 15,300, where the median line of the extended bullish channel aligns with the downtrend line, acted as a robust resistance point as anticipated. This has led to more pronounced losses in the short term, intensifying the selloff toward the subsequent support levels at 14,850 and 14,450.
USOIL

Geopolitical Tensions and Supply Uncertainty Drive Crude Oil Price Momentum
Crude oil prices are likely to remain well-supported as tensions in the Middle East justify a certain geopolitical risk premium for the time being, especially as the oil market is significantly undersupplied as well. Any broadening of the conflict could put up to 20 million barrels per day at risk of disruption directly and through obstructed logistics.
The United States has suspended sanctions on Venezuelan oil, potentially leading to an increase in the country's oil exports to over 0.5 million barrels per day.
The International Energy Agency is scheduled to release a long-term outlook on Tuesday, and the bank will be closely monitoring the agency's projections regarding when and where global oil demand is expected to reach its peak.
Strong volatility continues while the direction is more bullish. The last resistance level at 94 could be the closest level to watch as the situation is not stable.






Crypto

Bitcoin Breaks Free with Eyes on ETF Approval
On Monday, Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies surged, outperforming stocks. Bitcoin's price rose 2% in the past 24 hours, reaching over $30,450, breaking free from a months-long trading range at around $26,000. This rally, which began about ten days ago, is the most significant in four months. A consolidation above $31,000 could push prices toward $36,000.
While stocks like the Dow Jones Industrial Average and S&P 500 have been under pressure due to rising government bond yields, cryptocurrencies remain resilient. Bitcoin's optimism is driven by the potential approval of a Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) by the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC).
The prospect of a spot Bitcoin ETF has been on the horizon for months, with financial giants like BlackRock filing for such funds. However, while the technical outlook remains positive, it could take months for an ETF to be approved. Additionally, ongoing stock market weakness and rising Treasury yields could potentially trigger institutional selling in the crypto market. Beyond Bitcoin, Ether, Cardano, Polygon, Dogecoin, and Shiba Inu have all experienced positive price movements.
Bitcoin is bullish and 31690 is the weekly resistance level that challenges the price for making a long run and building momentum.

 

[Z Forex]

US INDICES:

Amazon's Strong Earnings Propel Tech Stocks
U.S. stock futures are set to rebound on Friday, following significant losses this week. Amazon's impressive quarterly results have given a boost to tech-related shares, with Nasdaq 100 futures rising by 0.9% and S&P 500 futures advancing by 0.5%. Amazon exceeded expectations, surging nearly 6% after reporting strong revenue and earnings for the third quarter. Other tech giants like Alphabet and Microsoft also saw gains in premarket trading. Additionally, Intel's stock rose due to better-than-expected earnings and a positive revenue outlook.
Thursday was a challenging day for Wall Street, with both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite experiencing losses of over 1%, setting the stage for significant weekly declines. Investors are now closely watching for the release of the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) data for September, a key inflation measure favored by the Federal Reserve, which could be a potential market mover on Friday.
The price is continuing to decline, with more selloffs, and breaking the descending triangle pattern indicates further selloffs, with the next target being 14000.

Crypto

Santiment Analysis Suggests Delay in Cryptocurrency Market Correction
In a recent post, blockchain intelligence platform Santiment shared that a correction in the cryptocurrency market may not happen soon. This is due to the recent market upturn, with Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies experiencing a significant increase in their values. According to Santiment, Bitcoin still has a considerable number of active addresses, and there is a healthy level of previously dormant tokens now being moved. This behavior has historically been linked to positivity in the market.
From a technical perspective, Bitcoin currently finds crucial support at the $34,000 level. Despite recently reaching a peak of $35,280, the cryptocurrency's value has gradually receded over the past 48 hours. This puts Bitcoin at risk of potentially dropping to the $31,400 support level in the coming days. This bearish thesis may be confirmed if Bitcoin's price breaks below the $34K mark in the next 24-48 hours, which could result in a short-term drop to as low as $28,760 if sellers continue to exert pressure. Adding to this bearish sentiment is the formation of a bearish ascending triangle on Bitcoin's daily chart, which suggests that a pullback may be imminent.
On the other hand, Bitcoin is entering buying territory and building momentum. Bullish traders awaited the breakout of the first resistance level, which is at 35000 followed by the second one at 42500.

 

[Z Forex]

US INDICES:

U.S. Stock Futures Rise Ahead of Key Week with Fed Rate Decision
U.S. stock futures rose on Monday as traders braced for a big week filled with a Federal Reserve rate decision, jobs report and Apple’s earnings report.
Wednesday's decision is due from the Federal Reserve, which is widely expected to keep its key interest rate at the same level. With rising interest rates the main reason for the stock market correction, investors are hoping the Fed will signal that it may be done raising rates. Traders believe that the Fed will not raise rates again until at least 2023.
The S&P 500 entered correction territory last week, falling by 2.5% and marking a 10.6% decline from its 2023 high. It is currently down by 4% for October, heading for its third consecutive negative month, the first such streak since 2020 when the pandemic hit. The Nasdaq Composite has fallen by over 12% from its 2023 peak and is firmly in correction territory.
The technology sector had mixed performance, with several mega-cap companies reporting earnings with varying results, negatively affecting the US stock market, especially the Nasdaq. The focus will now shift to Apple's earnings, which are significant for the week.
The price continues to fall, with further sell-offs, and the break of the descending triangle pattern indicates further sell-offs, with the next target at 14000.


Crypto

Crypto Market Shows Strength as Bitcoin Nears May 2022 Highs
Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies experienced an upward surge on Monday, reaching the upper end of a range formed during a two-week rally. The Bitcoin price rose 1% in the last 24 hours to $34,600, approaching the previous week's high of over $35,000. This high marked the highest point for Bitcoin since the significant downturn in May 2022.
Over the past two weeks, Bitcoin has rallied by approximately 30%, fueled by the optimistic expectation that regulators will approve the first spot Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF). This optimism has triggered renewed investor interest in digital assets.
Cryptocurrency enthusiasts are focused on the possibility of the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) granting approval for a spot Bitcoin ETF. However, the cryptocurrency market could be influenced by a busy week in financial markets. U.S. equities are expected to react to the Federal Reserve's interest-rate decision on Wednesday and various economic data, including the U.S. jobs report scheduled for Friday. Investors are continuously adjusting their expectations regarding interest rates, which can also impact cryptocurrencies. If the Federal Reserve's decisions or economic data significantly affect the stock market, Bitcoin may also respond accordingly.
Apart from Bitcoin, Ether, the second-largest cryptocurrency, saw a 2% increase, reaching $1,820. Smaller tokens or altcoins also experienced gains, with Cardano rising by 2% and Polygon surging by 3%. Memecoins, on the other hand, had a relatively stable performance, with Dogecoin and Shiba Inu trading at similar levels. On the other hand, Bitcoin is entering buying territory and building momentum. Bullish traders are awaiting the breakout of the first resistance level, which is at 35000, followed by the second one at 42500.

 

[Z Forex]

US INDICES:

Stock Futures Look to Sustain Momentum as October Ends with Negative Month

Stock futures saw gains on the last day of the month as Wall Street aimed to sustain momentum from the prior session. S&P 500 futures were up by 0.2%, while Nasdaq 100 futures increased by 0.1%. However, major indices are set to close the month in the negative, with the Dow and S&P 500 down 1.7% and 2.8% for October, marking their third consecutive month of losses. The Nasdaq has also declined by over 3% this month, heading for its third consecutive month of negative performance. Wall Street is closely watching the Federal Reserve's upcoming interest rate decision, expected to keep rates steady, as indicated by Fed funds futures. Additionally, investors await the October employment report, hoping for insights into potential labor market slowdowns, set to be released on Friday.

The price experienced a correction yesterday, but it was relatively minor within the prevailing bearish trend. The price remains in close proximity to a strong support level at 14,000, where the 200-day moving average (200MA) also provides important support.

Crypto

Cryptocurrencies Stabilize with Growing Optimism for Ether

Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies remained relatively stable on Tuesday, holding on to recent gains while analysts expressed growing optimism about Ether, the second-largest digital asset.

Bitcoin's price saw a minor dip of less than 1% over the past 24 hours, settling at $34,425. In the last two weeks, Bitcoin surged by 30%, briefly crossing $35,000, marking its highest level since May 2022, when the crypto market experienced a harsh bear market. This rally brought back Bitcoin's characteristic price volatility after months of historically low trading volumes.

The recent surge in Bitcoin is primarily attributed to hopes of the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) soon approving the first spot Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF). This ETF would hold actual Bitcoin instead of futures tracking the cryptocurrency. It's seen as a significant catalyst for attracting both retail and institutional investors, driving Bitcoin's outperformance of the Dow Jones Industrial Average and S&P 500.

The Bitcoin rally has also improved the overall crypto market, reviving the momentum of Ether, the Ethereum blockchain token. While Ether saw a 1% decline on Tuesday, trading at $1,800, it has risen 17% since mid-October, reaching its highest level since August. Analysts note that the technical market backdrop for Ether is improving.

Bitcoin momentum is strong and any breakout beyond the 35000 resistance level will take the price toward the next target of 40000.

 

[Z Forex]

US INDICES:

US Stock Futures Hold Steady as S&P 500 and Nasdaq Enjoy Winning Streaks
On Wednesday, the futures for the U.S. stock market remained relatively unchanged. This comes after the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite indices achieved their longest winning streaks in about two years. The S&P 500 recorded a 0.3% gain, resulting in seven consecutive positive trading sessions, while the Nasdaq Composite rose by 0.9%, marking its eighth consecutive day of gains. Both indices have not seen such a consistent positive trend since November 2021.
These gains are attributed to about 80% of S&P 500 companies beating earnings estimates this season. Traders are keeping a close eye on global central bankers' response to the drop in government bond yields, which could hinder efforts to control inflation.
If the Fed decides to execute a monetary policy pivot, allowing the economy to avoid a recession, global equities might be poised for a rally.
The Nasdaq has ventured into a bullish territory by surpassing the 15,000 resistance level. Its next milestone is to overcome the previous high of 16,000.

Crypto

Cochran Suggests Correlation Between Bitcoin Price and US Treasury Auctions
Cryptocurrency expert Adam Cochran, founder of Cinneamhain Ventures, recently shared intriguing insights on the connection between Bitcoin price movements and US Treasury auctions via X (formerly Twitter). Cochran noted a pattern where Bitcoin's price surges after successful US Treasury auctions, suggesting a correlation between the two.
His theory centers on real interest rates, which adjust interest rates for inflation. Cochran posits that when US Treasury auctions perform well, indicating lower yields and real rates, Bitcoin's price rises. This trend, according to Cochran, indicates a belief that significant funds will flow into Bitcoin as a hedge against real interest rates.
This observation gains significance as discussions about Bitcoin Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs) intensify. The US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has engaged with applicants like BlackRock and Fidelity, enhancing the correlation. Cochran also highlights Bitcoin's ability to draw momentum away from other market sectors during upswings.
While back-testing data is limited due to the recent emergence of this trend, Cochran's insights offer a compelling narrative linking traditional finance with Bitcoin, offering valuable insights for investors as the conversation around Bitcoin ETFs gains momentum.
Today, comments from Powell could influence market sentiment and directly impact risk within the crypto market. Bitcoin is currently testing the 35,000-resistance level, and a breakout would propel the price directly toward the next target at the 46,700 area.

 

[Z Forex]

US INDICES:

S&P 500 Futures Extend Winning Streak as Disney Surges and Lyft Slumps
S&P 500 futures showed a modest increase on Thursday, extending the index's longest winning streak since November 2021.
Disney saw a 3% rise in its stock price after reporting profits that exceeded expectations. Conversely, Lyft experienced a nearly 2% drop in its stock value as bookings fell short of projections. The rideshare platform anticipates ongoing challenges in this regard for the current quarter.
These market movements come after a relatively subdued yet significant day on Wall Street. While the S&P 500 only registered a 0.1% gain, it marked its longest winning streak since 2021, spanning eight consecutive days. Meanwhile, the Nasdaq Composite, dominated by tech stocks, inched up by 0.08%, extending its winning streak to nine days, representing its lengthiest stretch of positive sessions in two years.
Investor focus remains fixated on the upcoming Thursday morning's jobless claims data, along with a keen interest in the insights from a series of Federal Reserve officials, including Chair Jerome Powell, who are expected to make statements throughout the day. Following these developments, the Nasdaq has entered the buying territory after surpassing the resistance at 15000, with the next target set at the last high of 16000.

Crypto

Bitcoin Rally Fueled by Growing Optimism Around Spot ETFs and Changing Market Dynamics
The recent Bitcoin rally, approaching the $37,000 mark, has been fueled by growing optimism surrounding spot ETFs, illuminating a transformation in market dynamics. The Exchange Inflow – Spent Output Value Band metric from CryptoQuant illustrates a decrease in inflows from major whale addresses, as individual retail investors become more active, potentially influencing the surge in Bitcoin's value.
Notably, spot volumes are at historic lows, while derivatives hit record highs relative to spot trading, resulting in a spot-to-derivatives volume ratio of 0.06, indicating derivatives dominate market volumes.
Glassnode confirms a growing BTC supply tightness, with Long-Term Holder (LTH) supply near all-time highs and Short-Term Holder (STH) supply effectively at all-time lows, showing reluctance among holders to sell.
The Sell-Side Risk Ratio suggests potential profit-taking by Short-Term Holders post the $35k rally. Long-term holders show a slight ratio increase, resembling periods of tight BTC supply. These dynamics hint at underlying market shifts amid Bitcoin's recent surge.
With Bitcoin breaking through the $35,000 resistance level, the path to the next target at the $46,700 area seems close. If this movement persists throughout the week, it could signify a clear long-term bullish trend entering buying territory.

 

[Z Forex]

US INDICES:

S&P 500's Eight-Day Winning Streak Ends as Rising Yields Trigger Investor Concerns
The S&P 500 ended an eight-day winning streak on Thursday due to a significant rise in yields that unsettled investors. Both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq managed modest gains of around 0.1%. Stocks dipped after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell hinted at the potential for further measures to combat inflation, despite a recent slowdown in its pace that provided some relief to policymakers.
Disney's stock surged by 6.9% following better-than-expected profit reports and an expansion of its cost-cutting plans. Conversely, Arm's shares declined by 5.2% after its first quarterly report as a public company.
Small-cap indexes, such as the Russell 2000 and S&P Small Cap 600, incurred more substantial losses, each nearing 1.5%, underscoring persistent investor apprehensions about broader macroeconomic conditions. This trend aligns with the common perception that small-cap stocks are more vulnerable to concerns related to economic slowdowns.
The Nasdaq did not validate its breakout, suggesting a waning sense of over-optimism and the potential for a false breakout. This indicates a cautious stance in the market and prompts a closer evaluation of the prevailing sentiment.

Crypto

Bitcoin Holds Steady Near $36,000, Riding Strong Bullish Momentum
Bitcoin held steady on Friday, maintaining its recent rally, with the price hovering around $36,000 after a brief dip from a peak near $38,000 reached on Thursday. This peak marked Bitcoin's highest level since May 2022. Bitcoin has surged more than 30% in less than a month, breaking free from a prolonged period of low volatility and trading volumes.
Rachel Lin, CEO of the SyFutures trading platform, attributed this strong bullish momentum to the limited circulating supply of Bitcoin, with 90% of Bitcoins unchanged for over three months. The derivatives market also exhibited a bullish bias, with call options concentrated at price targets of $40,000, $45,000, and $50,000.
Moreover, optimism regarding approving the first spot Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) has bolstered Bitcoin's performance. Asset manager BlackRock's filing for an Ether ETF further fueled the crypto market, causing Ether to surge by 10% in the past 24 hours to above $2,100, reaching its highest levels in 18 months.
Bitcoin is currently experiencing a bullish breakout, which is propelling its price toward the 46700 area - its next target. If it manages to sustain this upward trend by the end of the week, it will indicate a long-term bullish trend and signal a good time to buy.