Best Thread Potential setups

[trader_dante]

Trader_dante...
To trade the Dow Jones do you recommend the Mini-Dow or the E-mini dow... Just a bit confused, cheers dude x

At my prop house I traded the YM which is the Mini-Dow.

If I am spreadbetting it I just hit the appropriate future. I don't trade the cash...

 

[HaloTrader]

At my prop house I traded the YM which is the Mini-Dow.

If I am spreadbetting it I just hit the appropriate future. I don't trade the cash...

Okay thats interesting, thankyou for the reply. Why is it that you now spreadbet rather than trade DMA futures just out of interest?

Cheers

 

[trader_dante]

Why is it that you now spreadbet rather than trade DMA futures just out of interest?

Cheers

- You can trade multiple products without needing to pay for access to each exchange.

- I don't have to worry about not getting a fill. Right now, if the price is hit, I get my fill, without needing to worry about how many contracts are traded there.

- SB companies don't widen the quote to reflect the thinning order book that occurs from time to time.

- SB companies often don't reflect every single price traded which leaves you prone to being taken out when in a thin order book people hit bids and offers to initiate or cover positions in the direct market.

- My profits are tax free.

 

[Technically Fundamental]

Dow is 9000!

no way. The hourly is having too much trouble with 8900. higher support levels arent giving higher highs. Tug of war I say and the daily hasnt seen this much movement since a) the good old days b) the last break to 9000 in jan this year

Its got to be a retest of as low as maybe even 8600 before 9000 can be dreamed of in my book and if that level breaks too far...

Then this is all based on the premise that the dow acts like a single tradeable instrument and at times can be used to drag up component stocks rather than vice versa. The latter scenario would probably mean tech analysis is not as effective on an index in which case we are both talking out of our a*ses.

 

[Technically Fundamental]

IG better sort their effing charts out. Its bullshizen robbery I swear. why is the chart at 4382? now the range is so vast I cant see the candles properly. i dont know how they get away with this.

 

[HaloTrader]

FTSE100 symetrical and ascending triangle won't last much longer.
Indicators are inconclusive and we can only assume the continuation of the current trend.
Market behaviour is ranging from triangle low to high etc with general intraday charts having lows and highs equally distanced from the open indicating choppiness and uncertaintly.
I am long since a test of the lower trendline and plan to hold this trade for a breakout or breakeven.

Further confirmation will be the break of the current monthly high... For me, if this were to occur - The FTSE100 will become a long-term investment.

I think if their are LOTS of puts in the market. Then this will confirm a continuation for me... I unfortunately don't have access to that information, anyone know where it could be found, for free or costing ?

 

[N Rothschild]

CBOE - Home for american markets.

imo trying to establish market direction by analyzing options volume is a futile effort for many reasons.

 

[HaloTrader]

CBOE - Home for american markets.

imo trying to establish market direction by analyzing options volume is a futile effort for many reasons.

Mmmm... I use it on an intraday chart (Only monitoring it currently) and i find that when everyone is buying puts the market goes the opposite direction. When calls go overextended i am looking to short, because 1. With so many buyers, eventually they will run out and the people in the trade earlier will start to exit positions and those who just got in with panic and try to exit too, creating loads of sellers causing a down trend - When the down trend is strong enough, everyone starts buying puts thinking that with the market currently flying down, they'll be rich in seconds and the process restarts (I think :S, is my logic right here) 2. If lots of people have calls... The mass, the amateurs with the assumption that 95% lose, i want to trade against these guys
So far i'm finding it extremely helpful in judging market direction - When one of my reversal setups appear, O.I is always giving me the same signal So i thought i may be useful on daily chart, thanks for the website x

 

[vinicius]

no way. The hourly is having too much trouble with 8900. higher support levels arent giving higher highs. Tug of war I say and the daily hasnt seen this much movement since a) the good old days b) the last break to 9000 in jan this year

Its got to be a retest of as low as maybe even 8600 before 9000 can be dreamed of in my book and if that level breaks too far...

Then this is all based on the premise that the dow acts like a single tradeable instrument and at times can be used to drag up component stocks rather than vice versa. The latter scenario would probably mean tech analysis is not as effective on an index in which case we are both talking out of our a*ses.

I see it as indecision.. No one is willing to sell either buy.. But I dont see any cleary reason for the people who bought start to sell.

I see 9.000 as a profit taking and we may see 9.500 before the major correction.

I dont have a strong fundamental view so as you said we are both talking out of our a*ses!!

 

[N Rothschild]

its way to compilicted to apply that simple logic..

 

[HaloTrader]

- You can trade multiple products without needing to pay for access to each exchange.

- I don't have to worry about not getting a fill. Right now, if the price is hit, I get my fill, without needing to worry about how many contracts are traded there.

- SB companies don't widen the quote to reflect the thinning order book that occurs from time to time.

- SB companies often don't reflect every single price traded which leaves you prone to being taken out when in a thin order book people hit bids and offers to initiate or cover positions in the direct market.

- My profits are tax free.

Surely, correct me if i'm wrong as i have no experience but i would have thought you could trade larger size and more contracts on the futures than spreadbetting. And in terms of a fill, surely even if you get slipperage on the futures, the spread is so small and enough contracts are traded at each tick to not be a big issue and in fact an advantage compared to SB slipperage.
In the futures, for example the FTSE100 - Surely you could trade 100 contracts for example, (£1000 per point) with 1 pip slipperage and a .5 spread ... Or is that very wrong? lol Whereas spreadbetting, i wouldn't have thought you could trade that size ?

In spreadbetting surely if you started trading £100 per point you would get more slipperage than you would with £100 per point in the futures market, especially very liquid markets such as the ES and YM and FTSE etc etc

Sorry, i'm trying to learn all these facts about the difference between S.B and the exchange because i want to move my trading from spreadbetting to futures to take advantage of the spread mostly and as i think it will feel more proffesional and clean, giving me a psychological edge.

On the FTSE100 futures on the NYSE euronext... What is the maximum amount of contracts one could trade per tick without getting slipperage or well less than a points worth?

Thanks dude You teh pro x

 

[HaloTrader]

its way to compilicted to apply that simple logic..

I don't disagree with what your saying.

But explain why in simple form?

O.I has an overbought and oversold zone... When it enters this zone, it means the emotional traders are the only ones left buying... Eventually no1 trading with setups will have any appearing long and the people long will start to exit their positions. The emotional traders then fearing start exiting their positons, accelerating the reversal.

I know thats very simple, but seems logical ?

I know that Price can rise high and momentum continues and push prices higher and volume will be high from long before... This is just a loss. Every trader has losses.

 

[N Rothschild]

Surely, correct me if i'm wrong as i have no experience but i would have thought you could trade larger size and more contracts on the futures than spreadbetting. And in terms of a fill, surely even if you get slipperage on the futures, the spread is so small and enough contracts are traded at each tick to not be a big issue and in fact an advantage compared to SB slipperage.
In the futures, for example the FTSE100 - Surely you could trade 100 contracts for example, (£1000 per point) with 1 pip slipperage and a .5 spread ... Or is that very wrong? lol Whereas spreadbetting, i wouldn't have thought you could trade that size ?

In spreadbetting surely if you started trading £100 per point you would get more slipperage than you would with £100 per point in the futures market, especially very liquid markets such as the ES and YM and FTSE etc etc

Sorry, i'm trying to learn all these facts about the difference between S.B and the exchange because i want to move my trading from spreadbetting to futures to take advantage of the spread mostly and as i think it will feel more proffesional and clean, giving me a psychological edge.

On the FTSE100 futures on the NYSE euronext... What is the maximum amount of contracts one could trade per tick without getting slipperage or well less than a points worth?

Thanks dude You teh pro x

you can not get filled on even just one contract on the ES if there are no buyers/sellers at that level. happens all the time (if your exit happens to be the high of the trend that is)

 

[N Rothschild]

I don't disagree with what your saying.

But explain why in simple form?

O.I has an overbought and oversold zone... When it enters this zone, it means the emotional traders are the only ones left buying... Eventually no1 trading with setups will have any appearing long and the people long will start to exit their positions. The emotional traders then fearing start exiting their positons, accelerating the reversal.

I know thats very simple, but seems logical ?

I know that Price can rise high and momentum continues and push prices higher and volume will be high from long before... This is just a loss. Every trader has losses.

you're amusing people are buying options only to speculate and remember there is more than one way to speculate options than buying puts or calls, you can sell them..trust me trying to use options volume etc to calculate the direction of the underlying is a total mine field.

 

[HaloTrader]

you can not get filled on even just one contract on the ES if there are no buyers/sellers at that level. happens all the time (if your exit happens to be the high of the trend that is)

Well during the normal trading hours of a market (cash market) such as the ES what is the average contracts per tick... Or is that an extremely difficult question?

 

[CTGCollins]

EUR USD Short

Closed 2/3 of this Euro short here at 1.3939.

Final third running with stop at 1.4019.

Looking for 1.3855 for last third.

Hi Tom & Fellow Traders,

I am in again short EUR USD @ 1.3996 with 2 units. So far about 25 pips in profit and have my current stop at 1 pip better than breakeven. I am going to try to be patient again this time because I am eyeing off the potential 530 pip southward move from the right shoulder of the daily H&S pattern. Maybe I will get stopped out here, but at least I am at BE. I am looking for the final target of approx 1.3645.

Expecting some sort of bounce at around 1.3940-1.3950 and just hoping it doesn't take me out then. If we get a significant break below 1.3940, then I will look at moving my stop to that swing high and possibly adding to the position.

Regards, Chris

 

[trader_dante]

Hi Tom & Fellow Traders,

I am in again short EUR USD @ 1.3996 with 2 units. So far about 25 pips in profit and have my current stop at 1 pip better than breakeven. I am going to try to be patient again this time because I am eyeing off the potential 530 pip southward move from the right shoulder of the daily H&S pattern. Maybe I will get stopped out here, but at least I am at BE. I am looking for the final target of approx 1.3645.

Expecting some sort of bounce at around 1.3940-1.3950 and just hoping it doesn't take me out then. If we get a significant break below 1.3940, then I will look at moving my stop to that swing high and possibly adding to the position.

Regards, Chris

What is the reason for your stop placement at "1 pip better than breakeven"?

 

[trader_dante]

Surely, correct me if i'm wrong as i have no experience but i would have thought you could trade larger size and more contracts on the futures than spreadbetting. And in terms of a fill, surely even if you get slipperage on the futures, the spread is so small and enough contracts are traded at each tick to not be a big issue and in fact an advantage compared to SB slipperage.

It's slippage, not slipperage. For starters.

Secondly, stop assuming. It's the mother of all f*ck ups.

Thirdly, the spread is smaller in the direct market but that advantage is, in my opinion, offset by other factors. One such factor is the fluctuating spread that is the result of the dynamics of the order book.

In the futures, for example the FTSE100 - Surely you could trade 100 contracts for example, (£1000 per point) with 1 pip slipperage and a .5 spread ... Or is that very wrong? lol Whereas spreadbetting, i wouldn't have thought you could trade that size ?

In spreadbetting surely if you started trading £100 per point you would get more slipperage than you would with £100 per point in the futures market, especially very liquid markets such as the ES and YM and FTSE etc etc

LOL, is this a joke? 100 contracts on the FTSE with 1 tick slippage? Mate, I doubt you could get 20 contracts off in the FTSE without getting 2-3 ticks slippage. If you did 100 contracts you would most likely take out the whole order book and get slipped 10-15 ticks.

It all depends on the time and general market conditions.

Sorry, i'm trying to learn all these facts about the difference between S.B and the exchange because i want to move my trading from spreadbetting to futures to take advantage of the spread mostly and as i think it will feel more proffesional and clean, giving me a psychological edge.

Will a 0.5 tick better spread in the FTSE make that much difference to you in your trading? Also don't forget the comissions you will pay. Obviously, whatever way you cut it, it's tighter than spreadbetting and yet still, I personally feel that spreadbetting is a much easier game to beat than being in the direct market.

Depends on how you trade and what type of trader you are though.

On the FTSE100 futures on the NYSE euronext... What is the maximum amount of contracts one could trade per tick without getting slipperage or well less than a points worth?

No idea. All the FTSE traders I know use Liffes FTSE futures contract.

 

[CTGCollins]

EUR USD Short

What is the reason for your stop placement at "1 pip better than breakeven"?

OK, no great rhyme or reason to it except that to me it seems better to be out for 2 pounds than zero pounds after sweating over this trade for hours and hours.

Now, if I want to catch that 530 pip move from the right shoulder down, what is the best way to trail my stop? Should I trail the 4hr or even daily candle that makes the lowest low?

I believe this trade should be good for the 530 pips, and possibly more. I had this grand plan of exiting half at the 530 pips, and see what the other half does after that.

The other idea that I have had re trailing a potentially long term position is to draw a fib from opening point of the trade to whatever price is now and keeping the stop at, say the 80% (or 76.4% or 61% or 50%) retracement of that distance. How do you trail your "expected to be long-term" trades?

Regards, Chris

 

[trader_dante]

OK, no great rhyme or reason to it except that to me it seems better to be out for 2 pounds than zero pounds after sweating over this trade for hours and hours.

Now, if I want to catch that 530 pip move from the right shoulder down, what is the best way to trail my stop? Should I trail the 4hr or even daily candle that makes the lowest low?

I believe this trade should be good for the 530 pips, and possibly more. I had this grand plan of exiting half at the 530 pips, and see what the other half does after that.

The other idea that I have had re trailing a potentially long term position is to draw a fib from opening point of the trade to whatever price is now and keeping the stop at, say the 80% (or 76.4% or 61% or 50%) retracement of that distance. How do you trail your "expected to be long-term" trades?

Regards, Chris

The best way is to try something consistently and evaluate whether it works.