Best Thread Potential setups

[advfntrader]

GBP/USD Weekly pinbar almost failed but not net, possible double top on Daily ?

 

[minch]

Hi Tom and fellow traders, had a s@#t of a day so far. Three attempts trying to pick the right place to short EUR USD have drained my account somewhat. I still believe the big daily H&S pattern should take precedence over the shorter timeframe ripples, so for better or worse, I am in a short position again from 1.4101 with 2 units. Current stop is at 1.4120. I was stopped out thrice earlier today unnecessarily when I varied from my usual very generous stop placement to a tighter one- this is what us relative newbies do wrong over and over again till we eventually learn the hard way just how much wiggle room is safe for a stop.

I can see this short possibly having difficulty/bounces at 1.4055, 1.4035, 1.4000, then 1.3980, 1.3940. If it breaks 1.3940 will be happier that the larger H&S pattern is actually coming to fruition.

Good luck to all who might be short here.

Regards Chris Collins

Now through potential Rbs pivot at 1.4052/55 looking to retest from below - Fingers crossed it will retrace and continue South from this level.

 

[bbmac]

gbpusd

Hidden divergence building on 1hr gbpusd so long as remains above 6377 area. obvious potential RBS zone shown in pic below with 2 x fibs at 6425-30 area being 50% 6325-6620and 23.6% 5797-6620

Entry would be with a 15min or sub 15min trigger, but beware minor LH on 1hr?

 

[Technically Fundamental]

I think it's going to tank. The price is not feeling comfortable above 89.17.

I think the price is uncomfortable because this is a key level for S&R. I've got the PA in an upwards channel with many retests of the top with higher lows but with higher lows, resistance to the downwards trend from 08, support above the november 08 high and 50% fib from bottom of swing to triple top 2008 (may,jun,jul), a level which also saw a lot of action jan-mar08 and acted as support in sep 07. I think based on the charts a topside break through to test 90.5-91.5 is just as likely the bottom falling (anywhere below 877-5ish) out in the short term but I agree that it will 5hit itself on the next month or so. My personal opinion is that the fundamentals will be tipping the scales in this instance.

Also I tend to overcomplicate things sometimes and I am a newb and I do not have enough confidence to trade anything I just said.

 

[Technically Fundamental]

That way I don't have to worry about Aaron's children starving.

I made a little money yesterday so they're okay for food atm. Their cloths and shoes have holes in though so dont be thinking you can relax. Get posting and be right or you'll be taking the clothes off of their backs.

 

[bbmac]

Hidden divergence building on 1hr gbpusd so long as remains above 6377 area. obvious potential RBS zone shown in pic below with 2 x fibs at 6425-30 area being 50% 6325-6620and 23.6% 5797-6620

Entry would be with a 15min or sub 15min trigger, but beware minor LH on 1hr?

GBPUSD: The 5min chart shows the immediate threats to this 1hr hidden divergence. There is a downtrend to 30min, that is clear and there is a minor LH on 1hr. price is finding support toward bottom of that zone in post above and a nice 1min or 5min regular bullish divergence play resulted. Will it result in a 'with 1hr+ uptrend' follow thru to a new HH above 6620? - I have no idea, lol, but don't care either as can play it either way on the lower t/f's.

BTW the fib shown is the 6620 (yesterday's hi) to current intraday low 6417.

G/L

 

[CTGCollins]

EURUSD short

Now through potential Rbs pivot at 1.4052/55 looking to retest from below - Fingers crossed it will retrace and continue South from this level.

Thanks Minch, are you short EURUSD too? Looks like it is having a hiccup at 1.4019. I am about 50 pips in profit now and am tempted to move my stop to breakeven at 1.4101, though on the longer timeframes this could retrace past my entry before heading down again. Unfortunately only have 2 lots on in this trade. Might consider closing one or both of these at 1.4000 (if it gets that far) which might be a big turnaround point. If it is a big turnaround, then I could always watch and reenter later when the retracement tops out.

Regards Chris

 

[minch]

Thanks Minch, are you short EURUSD too? Looks like it is having a hiccup at 1.4019. I am about 50 pips in profit now and am tempted to move my stop to breakeven at 1.4101, though on the longer timeframes this could retrace past my entry before heading down again. Unfortunately only have 2 lots on in this trade. Might consider closing one or both of these at 1.4000 (if it gets that far) which might be a big turnaround point. If it is a big turnaround, then I could always watch and reenter later when the retracement tops out.

Regards Chris

Yes im short from 1.4080, intraday scalp for my sins, looking for the floor at 1.4000

 

[bbmac]

gbpusd

The 1hr hidden divergence measured from the major previous L and the minor previous swing L (dotted line) is shown below and the 4hr potential RBS zone is shown too.

For the downtrend to 30min to continue SBR will have to see further supply force it down and the 1hr hidden divergence fail as the 1hr too becomes a clearer downtrend.

Current support on 1hr and 4hr comes at a L (arguably LL) on 1hr and a HLon 4hr so a non-optimal place insofar as a re-entry on one t/f to the higher t/f trend, but with £ strength and recovery off 5797 anything is possible-always. Current market chatter is for a lower eurusd and gbpusd. I have no interest now re the direction as from a 6434ask entry on the 1min bullish divergence with pinbar set-up I'm out at +20.

G/L

 

[movemysuper]

hi,

there is a nice graph from you. such things we exactly need when looking for these sorts of aspects.

Super Funds

 

[bbmac]

eurusd market opinion/chatter

Yes im short from 1.4080, intraday scalp for my sins, looking for the floor at 1.4000

1012 GMT [Dow Jones] EUR/USD made a second foray into the 1.4135-1.4215 retracement zone and this generated bearish divergence on the 4 hourly chart, says Commerzbank analyst Steven Merrigan. This reinforces his idea that EUR/USD's current strength is corrective and he looks for failure of support at 1.3980, 1.3915 and then 1.3810 to confirm this scenario. That will open risk toward 1.3610 and finally 1.3345 says Merrigan. EUR/USD now at 1.4035. (GST)
Contact us in London. +44-20-7842-9464
[email protected]

 

[bbmac]

1min, 5min, and 15min pinbars set-up and then a 30min inside bar (harami,) the 5min regular immediate bullish divergence paly is shown below as an eg.

G/L

Hidden divergence building on 1hr gbpusd so long as remains above 6377 area. obvious potential RBS zone shown in pic below with 2 x fibs at 6425-30 area being 50% 6325-6620and 23.6% 5797-6620

Entry would be with a 15min or sub 15min trigger, but beware minor LH on 1hr?

 

[CTGCollins]

EUR USD Short

Yes im short from 1.4080, intraday scalp for my sins, looking for the floor at 1.4000

5 Minute graph not looking very promising at present. I think if it breaks above 1.4041 soon we are going to see a bigger move upwards. If I were in your scalp, I would move my stop to 1.4045 or thereabouts. I might close down one of my own units at that point also.

Addendum 1: Looks like safety returned with rejection of 1.4037. Expecting a lot of heat from 1.4000 - are you closing down altogether there?

Regards, Chris

 

[bbmac]

gbpusd market opinion/chatter

1208 GMT [Dow Jones] GBP/USD fell short of RBC Capital Markets downside target of 1.5725 this week, the low being 1.5802. The rate has since recovered to 1.66 however further gains toward resistance at 1.6736 and 1.6942 should attract fresh selling interest for a test of 1.6343. A sustained break here will signal a deeper pullback is underway with targets of 1.6104 and 1.5889, although the bank says it's raising its own downside objective to 1.6025 from 1.5725 to reflect recent price action. GBP/USD now trades at 1.6465. (GST)

Contact us in London. +44-20-7842-9464
[email protected]

(END) Dow Jones Newswires
June 12, 2009 07:08 ET (11:08 GMT)

 

[minch]

5 Minute graph not looking very promising at present. I think if it breaks above 1.4041 soon we are going to see a bigger move upwards. If I were in your scalp, I would move my stop to 1.4045 or thereabouts. I might close down one of my own units at that point also.

Regards, Chris

Im out at target 1.4000, happy with that for today.

Off out for haircut, short of course, lol.

PS. Good luck with your trade CTG, Its looking good mate, I hope you clean up

 

[CTGCollins]

EURUSD short

Im out at target 1.4000, happy with that for today.

Off out for haircut, short of course, lol

Yes, I like a short haircut too, not that I'm lazy about combing my hair or anything...
I am still in this trade with 2 lots, trying like hell to be patient coz this is potentially a BIG winner if the daily H&S pressure starts exerting itself. The Daily H&S is about 530 pips high and if we subtract this from the top of the right shoulder, it gives a target of around 1.3646 which also ties in with busy SBR and RBS zones from previous weeks' PA. If I can crack this 530 pip trade I might even start trading real money!!!! Surely my luck has to turn around somewhere. I have had a bad last 2 weeks. Wish I had had more lots on than this so that I could have done some sensible scaling out.

Regards, Chris

 

[trader_dante]

Looks to me like its going to go as high as 1.4050 at least. This H&S is being defended rather aggressively.

 

[foredog]

Surely my luck has to turn around somewhere. I have had a bad last 2 weeks.
Regards, Chris

Gary Player: "The harder you practice the luckier you get."

 

[bbmac]

post # 7878 What happened.

Sometimes useful to see what happened to a call: Price indeed rallied up off the 6414bid L to a high of 6477ask. As I had warned price was aleady in a downtrend to 30min, with a LH on 1hr, and this was consistent with the tone of market sentiment reflected in the newsfeeds, (The macd signal lines were ointing down to 4hr) as price found supply at the previous 5min swing lo=potential sbr zone highlighted as a 'threat ' on a subsequent post. At this 6477 a 1min regular divergence with a 5min hidden divergence play developed indicating a high probaility opportunity to rejoin the 30min short trend/1hr developing short trend...price sold off to 6373 area - the previous 1hr swing lox2 zone co-existent with the 38.2% fib of the 5982-6620 swing up.

1hr is also now in a downtrend making a new LL off the LH at the previous 1hr minor swing L zone 6417-37, co-existent with the 23.6% of the intraday fall, following the pullback off aforemnetioned 6373.

The 1min and 5min set-ups at that 6477 area, referred to above are shown below (1min Rev B, 5min Re-entry 2 for those that know them.)

 

[CTGCollins]

EUR USD Short

Looks to me like its going to go as high as 1.4050 at least. This H&S is being defended rather aggressively.

Thanks Tom, do you think 1.3646 is a sensible final target for the completion of the daily H&S? I agree there may be an intervening retrace to 1.4050.

Regards, Chris