Plain Vanilla Options Trades.

[dbphoenix]

Unfortunately discussion of all this is pointless because imho the real issue is something far deeper and outside the scope of trading skill, reason, logic and common sense.

Glenn

that is, your NPD post . . .

 

[stoic]

If these puts expire worthless it's game over for the buying camp.

Because,......................because everything then would be known in advance!

Think about it?

The money was there to cover the margin.

Even counter trend options can come up trumps.

The edge is definately there.

Everything is known in advance.

Maybe my request for an epitaph was way to premature.

It's not over till the fat lady sings.

God I love your sarcasm linesniffer

 

[stoic]

That is why i sold them at that particular time, to prove the point in the face of adversity. Anything else would have been too easy and not really proved the point.

like, erm, taking a £150K in margins, of course that does prove a point doesn't it?

 

[laptop1]

Lets face it, he got caught the wrong way round, if he was offering calls 2 weeks ago he be all over this thread.

The truth is with this kind of trading it only takes one trade maybe two to go broke. to much margin to hold for little reward. what happens if these traders who took the puts off socs have taken their profit, I was told by an old timer only buy or sell, options, with about 7 to 4 days to expiry

 

[rols]

:?:

All this conjecture is driving me nuts.

Through bitter personal experience I have found it folly to over-estimate others.

Would our absent friends please step forward from the wings and save this thread from death by the WI. :cheesy:

 

[stoic]

all quiet on the western front . . .

this thread is, of course, dying a slow death as posters are slowly, but surely, not bothering.

I was thinking about this situation and wondering if Socrates remembers the story in Reminiscences of a Stock Operator where the boys in the office tried to get the market to pay for a fur coat. In the end Jesse volunteered to go out and buy the coat to prevent everyone in the office going bankrupt . . . .

 

[CYOF]

All this conjecture is driving me nuts.

Through bitter personal experience I have found it folly to over-estimate others.

Would our absent friends please step forward from the wings and save this thread from death by the WI. :cheesy:

Yes Rols,

You will not see real traders posting when there is big money to be made :idea:

Might be back next week

 

[JohnG FX]

What an interesting speculative commentary this is turning out to be from all of you.

I assure you I am not upset in the least, I just find it morbidly horrific.

It reinforces what I already know and think, and causes me to act the way I do.

Apparently to your type (whatever that is) I am one of the hairy ones, ie I trade forex. But I also trade other instruments.

For all your bombastic rhetorc and one upmanship you have in 3 weeks managed to prove without question that naked writers may well have the edge in a low volatility market, BUT... if the volatilty spikes and you are on the wrong side with naked short options then you are screwed.

In Feb 1987 I was a 27 year old very arrogant but very capable accountant working for Robert Maxwell in London and living in Brighton, I remember getting on the train that evening (those were the days where we had a Buffet car where one could smoke, drink and unwind from the day) I remember guys who had great cars and houses in tears trying to figure how they wrere going to explain to their wives that the house and car probably had to go and that the childrens future education might have to be state funded.

And all because they had a margin call. I don't know you and probably never will- I don't know if you have had a margin call or not.

One thing I do know is that arrogance and attitude against the markets will bring you to heel very rapidly - Indices are going down more- Yen unwinds have only just begun, stop trying to be clever and just figure out the best exit strategy

Everyone takes a very heavy hit occasionaly. Put your hands up and give your opinion on an exit strategy.

I read so much on these public forums that X or Y can't divulge Y or Z. Thats bull**** and you know it.

PS. That is also why I don't publicly post my trades - it mentaly locks you into a position- not clever.


PS. you have dug yourself a large hole

 

[Profitaker]

New margin and P/L update.

Slight Implied Vol spike today. Looking like a massive one come Monday, if the DOW is anything to go by !

 

[Profitaker]

John G

Fear not, they were never anything more than paper trades, of that I have no doubt, whatsoever. In fact I'd be prepared to put some serious money on it. I only bother to post up for the interest of others following a "hypothetical" trade.

Small world. Tried to check out that green spanish one near you, but had to settle for Nissam's as they were fully booked.

 

[JohnG FX]

John G

Fear not, they were never anything more than paper trades, of that I have no doubt, whatsoever. In fact I'd be prepared to put some serious money on it. I only bother to post up for the interest of others following a "hypothetical" trade.

Small world. Tried to check out that green spanish one near you, but had to settle for Nissam's as they were fully booked.

Nissams I know well :cheesy:

Not so keen on the Spanish one.

But have just ordered a cab to go to Rumours- so have to run.

Take care all

 

[Profitaker]

John G

I'm sure you'll raise a charitable glass to our mutual friend in his hour of need

 

[ian]

US closes on the lows...not looking too good for monday ftse...I wonder if Bin Laden will be caught over the week end?...

Good night all...

 

[Splitlink]

Split,
Do you have any idea of his asset worth ?...if not then you are absolutely unqualified to make a judgement as above...you are in effect saying what it would mean to you to be in this position rather than what it means to him ...you see?....the numbers you are talking about here might be his idea of a pizza for two in which case the monetary outcome of this would have been considerably let important to him than say the goal of showing that 80% of the writes would expire worthless.....if the latter fails then that his a different question.

I am not defending him regardless of what peeps reading this think..I am being objective as nearly all the comments I have read here appear to be based upon how this position would feel if it were THEIRS ,BUT it isn't is it !

Focus ...one aim....what value will the options expire at ? there is nothing else and there never was as we never had any data to evaluate anything else.

As for our mad Irishman I doubt he is trading 'naked' at the moment.

Sorry, Chump, I didn't see this post before. Well, everyone has an opinion and I concede that yours is possible. I disagree with it, though, because of previous threads where he has defended the use of discipline and stops and money management, in general.. These posts go back years. None of the before mentioned ingredients are noticeable in any of these written puts, of his. He is keeping these open, come what may, until Exercise Day just to prove us wrong. He said that a few posts ago.

I see by PT's post that margin is now £150000. How can you say "Focus on value at exercise? No matter how many successful trades he makes, he has, already, lost many times more that what he said he had made, to date.

The mad Irishman is another topic

Split

 

[starspacer]

.....PS. That is also why I don't publicly post my trades - it mentaly locks you into a position- not clever.....

It only "mentally locks you in" if you fear being seen to be wrong. I humbly submit that this mental 'limitation' is one of the biggest barriers of all to trading success, whether on options or elsewhere.

It is no shame to be wrong occasionally. The shame is in fearing to be seen to be wrong.

As for Socs, he has publicly said that he is holding his positions open. I once remember reading about a trading master (in one of the Market Wizards stories). He was asked the following question by Schwager [I'm paraphrasing]: "Are you saying that as long as you think the fundamentals, as you perceive them, are unchanged, you will hang tough no matter how much the position goes against you?"

The Wizard answered: "Right. Of course, if it is triple horrible, I might trade around the position to take the pressure down a little bit. I would say, OK, this looks awful; I see nothing but buyers. Why don't I join the buyers and see if I can make some money.....I try to separate [my belief in market direction] from the short term fervor and intensity I may see in the market." He ended by saying "In my judgement, all great traders are seekers of truth."

So, there you have it. It just isn't right to pass judgement on Socs whilst his positions are still open.

Notwithstanding this, I enjoyed your commentary on the Maxwell episode.

Good trading,

starspacer

Please remember, honesty and morality above expediency. It's the easiest thing to do to knock someone when they're down, but this subtly, but surely eats away the moral character of the person doing this. The first nibble leads to more. The more becomes a feast. The feast becomes gluttony. The moral glutton becomes degraded in the eyes of The Wise.

Good luck Socky, you will pull through this and enjoy the last laugh.

 

[andycan]

if i may say some of the attitude has been deplorable
quite a while back i posted a few trades that i was in, and got a barrage of negativity 'how can you short in a rising market' or 'you should not do that'
'thats irresponsible' type of comments, i thought to myself good grief!!
anyway on those trades which at the time i was short gold, eur/usd and bonds,
all three were winners against 'public opinion'
the irony is that those that criticised my style of trading had nothing to say,
and certainly nothing to add. but im sure if i had fallen flat on my face the comments would have conveniently trickled in.
let me make this clear as some of you find it amusing when soccy says everything is known in advance
fellas you are taking it literally and though you mock, the joke is on you
i posted a chart of the S&P cash that would hit 1455/1460 over 4 month ago
i knew the high was in with high probability, one can say it was known in advance what i have difficulty in substantiating is magnitude of moves,
i did not anticipate this move down so quick, so naturally one has to adjust due to cycles and timing,
the point is the man is trading whether he is still holding or not or has hedged is immaterial, these trades do not define him as a trader, it may from your point of view but its his view that counts.
i can hear some of you say well he should have known in advanced that the high was in, well maybe but also i suspect he may have been looking at a topping action which would have taken some time for it to go down,and strategically the puts would have expired worthless.
my point is to those that genuinely know what trading is about, those that have sweat tears to be the traders they are may appreciate what im saying and those that think they do its just a good laugh
i wish everyone success in their endeavours

 

[jacinto]

well, as i said before. i will give the benefit of the doubt. he did say 80%ish of options would expire worthless, so i guess we have to wait. not that the margin requirement is not an issue.

paper or not, I will like to see how if folds out, for the sake of what started this discussion.

 

[Splitlink]

if i may say some of the attitude has been deplorable
quite a while back i posted a few trades that i was in, and got a barrage of negativity 'how can you short in a rising market' or 'you should not do that'
'thats irresponsible' type of comments, i thought to myself good grief!!
anyway on those trades which at the time i was short gold, eur/usd and bonds,
all three were winners against 'public opinion'
the irony is that those that criticised my style of trading had nothing to say,
and certainly nothing to add. but im sure if i had fallen flat on my face the comments would have conveniently trickled in.
let me make this clear as some of you find it amusing when soccy says everything is known in advance
fellas you are taking it literally and though you mock, the joke is on you
i posted a chart of the S&P cash that would hit 1455/1460 over 4 month ago
i knew the high was in with high probability, one can say it was known in advance what i have difficulty in substantiating is magnitude of moves,
i did not anticipate this move down so quick, so naturally one has to adjust due to cycles and timing,
the point is the man is trading whether he is still holding or not or has hedged is immaterial, these trades do not define him as a trader, it may from your point of view but its his view that counts.
i can hear some of you say well he should have known in advanced that the high was in, well maybe but also i suspect he may have been looking at a topping action which would have taken some time for it to go down,and strategically the puts would have expired worthless.
my point is to those that genuinely know what trading is about, those that have sweat tears to be the traders they are may appreciate what im saying and those that think they do its just a good laugh
i wish everyone success in their endeavours

Hi Andy,

It's human nature for the majority of people to stick together and criticise those who work, or live, differently to themselves. The mavericks get ejected from the pack. It will never be any different, but there are some who listen and are sympathetic to different ideas. I hope that you meet them in your endeavors. I have found one, or two, posters with whom I hold similar views but I, sincerely, hope that we are open to sensible ideas and are not, as you say, negative to everything that contrasts to our own. If the contrary is the case, then we have lost the will to learn something new and that is very sad.

The person, who you mention, has a long history of unpleasant manners and arrogance and can, only blame himself for the way in which he is treated. I, personally, consider myself a reasonably intelligent person and have earned professional qualifications, over the years, of which I am proud. I have done something. I do not like to be patronised by anyone, especially a person who is unwilling to accept the fact that everyone else would be worried stiff to be in the trading position that he is in, and not explain why he has allowed himself to get there. What would be educative to me, and to others, I believe, is to learn what he would do to extricate himself from next, if the market was to continue to fall in the future. In fact, the 1987 crash formed itself over the weekend so my question , to someone who is about my age and should remember that, would be to explain why he has left himself open to a drastic Monday fall? Your post suggests that he should not be taken literally but I cannot take him any other way on a matter such as being able to forecast the future. Especially as, if he could do that, as others have already asked, why did he write puts, instead of calls? Or, if he insists that he only writes puts, why has he got his timing so badly wrong?

Split

 

[rols]

While I said a few posts back it was in my personal experience a mistake to over estimate people, I feel that Socco is an exception.

His bedside manner may not be to everybody's taste but with respect to this thread I feel he will have the last word and the last laugh.

Revelling in his humiliation and downfall before the full outcome and facts are presented may be as they say in common parlance, 'a bit previous.'

IMO the philosophy and character of our absent friend is such that I assure you he will have been sleeping very soundly these last few nights.

 

[Profitaker]

rols

I think there are two issues here.

Firstly, the stated aim of this thread was to somehow "prove" that option sellers have some sort of intrinsic edge over option buyers. Regardless of the final outcome, that aim has failed miserably.

Secondly, given the outstanding rudeness, arrogance and options ignorance of the individual concerned, it is perhaps understandable that some are delighted that he is now a laughing stock. On this issue he may, possibly, have the last laugh. But the first issue is done, dusted, finished.