Plain Vanilla Options Trades.

[Priceman]

Nash....A Beautiful Mind...?

Drat! Give the others a chance will ya. Well done that man, now go and ask nicely for your winnings.

Also a lot of other gems in there too. Just shows how close to madness geniuses can be. Great book well worth the read.

 

[Priceman]

Nash....A Beautiful Mind...?

PS did you know or did you google?

 

[counter_violent]

PS did you know or did you google?

Some words resonated.....and yes a google to confirm .........

How perceptive of you ....

 

[starspacer]

i must say, recently i have found www.dailyspeculations.com a far more interesting read than this tiresome dross.

real thinkers with something that proves more thought

The primary author of this busted out big time in 1997 (plus lost all his clients money, or rather 99.99% to be precise).

I have no issue with Niederhoffer, obviously a very talented man, but I wouldn't take financial advice from him.

 

[stoic]

Socrates is taking the standard stance that many of my old professors take when looking for research students. That is to be at able to converse with him at his level you have to have been through and have enough ability and understanding before you are taken on. The similarity being that it would waste the professor's time to go over every potential students education, let alone educate them to the required level, since this is a different journey altogether. He simply relies on exams, and asking the few odd questions.

The problem I see, and maybe you haven't admit this yet Socrates, is that these "edges" of yours that you keep secret are of no worth to these people, since they probably don't have the committment nor the facility to use them, it would most probably be like giving Schumacher's Ferrari to the average person and thinking that is all required to help win a formula one race.

I personally blame society, especially the media, in imparting the idea of "get rich quick" and the fact that anyone can do it if you sign up for this and that. Why do you think there are so many tipsters and courses being touted about? Also societal events like the internet boom does not help give a good role model to people since it did create automatic millionaires and the general population expect this kind of thing to happen to them.

Of course, Socrates, this little circus here can get pretty vicious and you do not endear yourself to the people here by the way you respond to them, but I do sympathise.

 

[SOCRATES]

perhaps if Soc got down off the "I am holier than thou and my word is gospel" box we could all have a reasoned debate

Now I can understand the phrase "everything is known in advance" with regard to a trader achieving a level of competence in the markets traded but would personally be more comfortable with the phrase "based on knowledge and experience the next move is anticipated with a high degree of certainty"

Aaahhhh ! Pennies seem to be beginning to drop here at last...

When you have many years watching and experiencing similar things they begin to become second nature, like for example you do not have to thnk of the route, if you have to go out of your home to post a letter or get a pint of milk because you "know" where the postbx is and you "know" where the corner shop that sells the milk is.

You "know" where these things are and if you close your eyes you can visualise them before you actually get there and see them in reality in front of you.

But a visitor would be lost and you would have to give directions.

Well, trading at the highest level is the same. You need years of experience to acquire the right map inside your head and to know in which direction to set out for you to ultimately obtain what you want with a major degree of certainty instead of getting lost. All this is a matter of trading maturity, and a deep knowledge of the environment in which you are occupying and operating in.

 

[SOCRATES]

Socrates is taking the standard stance that many of my old professors take when looking for research students. That is to be at able to converse with him at his level you have to have been through and have enough ability and understanding before you are taken on. The similarity being that it would waste the professor's time to go over every potential students education, let alone educate them to the required level, since this is a different journey altogether. He simply relies on exams, and asking the few odd questions.

The problem I see, and maybe you haven't admit this yet Socrates, is that these "edges" of yours that you keep secret are of no worth to these people, since they probably don't have the committment nor the facility to use them, it would most probably be like giving Schumacher's Ferrari to the average person and thinking that is all required to help win a formula one race.

I personally blame society, especially the media, in imparting the idea of "get rich quick" and the fact that anyone can do it if you sign up for this and that. Why do you think there are so many tipsters and courses being touted about? Also societal events like the internet boom does not help give a good role model to people since it did create automatic millionaires and the general population expect this kind of thing to happen to them.

Of course, Socrates, this little circus here can get pretty vicious and you do not endear yourself to the people here by the way you respond to them, but I do sympathise.

Of course you sympathise, but there again you do not see other consistenly proficient traders doing any head drilling or getting malicious or envious or nasty. They don't need to. They already have done all the work and have reliable and accurate route maps inside their heads they refer to. The fact that the reference to the map is silent and invisible makes it that much more mystifying.

The problem as you very accurately have pinpointed is that we live in an age of instant gratification......, an "off the shelf" kind of society, in which everything is taken for granted and ready made. The problem is that there are no short cuts with this. You just have to start at the bottom and work your way up, and very hard work it is too, over many years of unstinting effort and dedication.This is not understood. Instead, those of us who have done it get showered with abuse by beginners.

 

[SOCRATES]

You have not answed my question. who do you think I am. Tell the pepole on this thread. go on do tell.....If not keep quiet http://216.239.59.104/search?q=cache:TFvneK63wUwJ:www.masonic-network.com/+freemasons+passwords&hl=en&ct=clnk&cd=8&gl=uk&ie=UTF-8
do you know the pass

Again ?

Aren't you a crashing bore ?

What do you want now?

Tell them WHAT exactly ?

What is it you imagine there is to tell ? What ?

It just is and that is all.

You are a nuisance.

 

[laptop1]

SOCS

You have accused me of being someone else, It's simple question. its not hard, I am asking you, who do you think I am. That was question 1

Question 2, Why have you taken you symbol down.

 

[SOCRATES]

SOCS

You have accused me of being someone else, It's simple question. its not hard, I am asking you, who do you think I am. That was question 1

Question 2, Why have you taken you symbol down.

Listen, Laptop. I am not interested to know who you are at all, I am NOT INTERESTED, ok ?

My symbol remains there, and will remain there, that is all.

Nuisance you are......

 

[laptop1]

Listen, Laptop. I am not interested to know who you are at all, I am NOT INTERESTED, ok ?

My symbol remains there, and will remain there, that is all.

Nuisance you are......

You are harmless, I will let you off. but I don't see your symbol. It can't Consume you as we don't see it.

Anyways...........who used to say that.....

Let me know when you selling Feb. puts, I hold them to expiry:cheesy:

 

[PKFFW]

I'm starting to think that people here are just using this thread to take cheap shots at Socs?

PKFFW, seems to be making all kinds of senarios up of the top of his head and calling them fact!

It's becomming more and more ludicrous by the minute.

Making "all kinds of scenarios up"? Please do give a few examples. I've only mentioned one scenario. Sure it is a far fetched one but it is to illustrate a point only and as such I presummed those reading would be intelligent enough to take it as such.

As for taking "cheap shots" at Socrates, I have done no such thing. I have simply asked that he provide what it is he claims to want to provide in this thread. That is, proof of what he claims.

Now, in his quest to seem all knowing and all powerful he has, unfortunately, undermined his own position by claiming to know the outcome of all things in advance. If this is the case then he can post all the profitable trades in a row he wants and it will never serve as proof of his hypothesis. As he knows the outcome in advance the method, market, strategy and instrument he uses to make a profitable trade matters not. Therefore to suggest that his making a profitable trade or trades, without details, proves the writer has the edge is ludicrous as we can not ascertain if the edge he is showing is his all knowing, all powerful sense of futurology or if it is simply an edge all writers have simply by writing.

I think Soc needs to decide what he really wants out of this thread. To prove to all that he is an all knowing all powerful futurologist that never gets a trade wrong, or that the writers have the edge. His displaying of profitable trades simply can't prove both.

So if asking someone to actually do what they claim to want to do is ludicrous I admit I am fault. I don't think that is a definition of ludicrous though.

Cheers,
PKFFW

 

[PKFFW]

PKFFW

many of Socrates views i agree with, i have spoken many times with him and i can tell you he does have an intimate knowledge of the markets that in my opinion is unquestionable, now how he shares his knowledge and how he deals with many members here is really up to him, not exactly how i would do it but then each to their own.
now speaking from my own experience i have nailed highs and lows to a T, what i can't tell you for sure is how it will get there and when i have an idea and sometimes im spot on and other times im out by a few days and on longer term trades maybe a few weeks, it happens,
but the point it reaches was known in advance. i suspect Socrates knows where the market is going and i suspect he knows at what point the FTSE will start to slow down on the upmoves (price), what he may not be able to tell you is how long it will take to get there (time) so with that said, if you know where its going to go but not 100% when, then naturally you have to still be cautious and certainly with options time is the factor.
maybe im wrong but certainly from where i stand that would be the tough part not impossible but certainly tough

regards

Ok I think I'm starting to get it now.

You seem to be suggesting that with experience and knowledge one will be able to determine with a high degree of accuracy where the market will go. You may get the timing off but otherwise you will be pretty close to the money. That sounds reasonable.

I would ask a quick question in relation to "I have nailed highs and lows to a T" if I may. Have you ever done an empirical study on your picking of highs and lows? Do you know the % number of times you nail that high or low compared to the number of times you attempt to do so? No need to answer that by the way as it's not really important. I only bring it up because it is a common human trait to remember the times we get something right and forget all the times we attempted the same thing but got it wrong. Without a proper empirical study, logging every attempt, we have no true idea if we get it right any more times than pure chance would allow us to. I'm not suggesting your success at picking highs and lows is pure chance either. I'm merely raising the issue.

Now, having said all that.....stating that you sometimes(or even often) get it right in a vague kind of "I was pretty darn close" sort of way is one thing. Saying "I have absolute knowledge of all outcomes in advance. Everything is known in advance. I work from absolute certainty." is a whole different kettle of fish.

Soc may very well be all knowing. My only issue with that statement is in how it relates to the stated aim of this thread. As I've said before, if Soc is all knowing, then he can post all the live profitable trades he wants and this alone will not and can not serve as proof of his hypothesis. With Soc being totally unwilling to go into details it is impossible to ascertain if his profitable trades come from his knowing everything or if they come simply from an inherent edge to writing options as he claims.

Yet again though Soc would rather insult than debate. I still wanted to bring it up as I'm still interested in seeing proof one way or the other. I'm still vainly(obviously) hoping that Soc will actually decide to post some fair dinkum proof of his hypothesis if he has any.

Cheers,
PKFFW

 

[Splitlink]

Ok I think I'm starting to get it now.

You seem to be suggesting that with experience and knowledge one will be able to determine with a high degree of accuracy where the market will go. You may get the timing off but otherwise you will be pretty close to the money. That sounds reasonable.

I would ask a quick question in relation to "I have nailed highs and lows to a T" if I may. Have you ever done an empirical study on your picking of highs and lows? Do you know the % number of times you nail that high or low compared to the number of times you attempt to do so? No need to answer that by the way as it's not really important. I only bring it up because it is a common human trait to remember the times we get something right and forget all the times we attempted the same thing but got it wrong. Without a proper empirical study, logging every attempt, we have no true idea if we get it right any more times than pure chance would allow us to. I'm not suggesting your success at picking highs and lows is pure chance either. I'm merely raising the issue.

Now, having said all that.....stating that you sometimes(or even often) get it right in a vague kind of "I was pretty darn close" sort of way is one thing. Saying "I have absolute knowledge of all outcomes in advance. Everything is known in advance. I work from absolute certainty." is a whole different kettle of fish.

Soc may very well be all knowing. My only issue with that statement is in how it relates to the stated aim of this thread. As I've said before, if Soc is all knowing, then he can post all the live profitable trades he wants and this alone will not and can not serve as proof of his hypothesis. With Soc being totally unwilling to go into details it is impossible to ascertain if his profitable trades come from his knowing everything or if they come simply from an inherent edge to writing options as he claims.

Yet again though Soc would rather insult than debate. I still wanted to bring it up as I'm still interested in seeing proof one way or the other. I'm still vainly(obviously) hoping that Soc will actually decide to post some fair dinkum proof of his hypothesis if he has any.

Cheers,
PKFFW

This is going around in circles. I know you want proof. I, also, know that you won't get it. Socrates has made one of those statements that cannot be proved. He only makes them to start a thread in which he attempts to be the centre piece.

I, like many others, only joined this thread to see what he could do. He has posted many trades which he says that he has made but he has not satisfied us because it was never his plan to do so. He has achieved his goal i.e. made his name so well known, that if he starts another thread on a totally different subject he will get another noisy audience, of which he will the centrepiece, again. Yesterday, he answered all of us, individually. That is what he loves to do. He got enough answers to keep the topic open for another week.

I am going to make myself a promise. Stay away from writing here until, at least, next weekend. Perhaps I will have found myself something more useful to do, by then.

Split

 

[PKFFW]

^^
Yeah I couldn't agree more. I think I'll do the same.

Cheers,
PKFFW

 

[CYOF]

I'm just reading a book and whilst popping in here to see what's going on I thought I'd paste from the book.... It's about a genius mathematician... I thought very apt for this thread. £10000 (of Socrates money ) to the person who knows what the book is or who it's talking about...

"His contemporaries, on the whole, found him immensely strange. They described him as aloof, haughty, without affect, detached, spooky, isolated and queer. He mingled rather than mixed with his peers. Preoccupied by his own private reality, he seemed not to share their mundane concerns. His manner- slightly cold, a bit superior, somewhat secretive - suggested something mysterious and unnatural. His remoteness was puntuated by flights of garrulousness about outer-space and geopolitical trends, childish pranks and unpredictable erruptions of anger. But these outbursts were, more often than not, as enigmatic as his silences. "He is not one of us" was a constant refrain."

I have said already that I am very impressed with what Soc is doing, be it him or whoever is doing the actual trading, to get consistent rewards like that is very very good. Not sure about the direction of the thread though and what the final understanding of a layperson like me will get about buying or writing options.... who has the edge then?

Spose I'll keep reading though! Keeps the sanity in check

It has to be, the one and only, the Small man with the Big stature, our very very own:

Charlie Haughey

Rise And Follow Charlie

 

[CYOF]

You have not answed my question. who do you think I am. Tell the pepole on this thread. go on do tell.....If not keep quiet http://216.239.59.104/search?q=cach...s+passwords&hl=en&ct=clnk&cd=8&gl=uk&ie=UTF-8
do you know the pass

Very nice site that.

I wonder if they allow Leprechauns to join :cheesy:

Hey laptop, you may want to add some more memory in that little slot, and make sure it is dual channel, Please, for it makes a big difference to the speed :idea:

 

[CYOF]

Quote:
Originally Posted by bluetipex
A very popular thread, which has perhaps deviated a little from the original theme.

I have only dabbled in options a few years back, so am by no means an expert. There are many here who I'm sure are far more knowledgeable, so what I'm about to say may be completely wrong! I'm sure I'll be corrected very swiftly if that is the case!

It has been said that the Writer has the edge over the Buyer, and I believe this to be true from simply looking at the 3 to 1 ratio of successful end results of writing over buying. However, I, like a few others, submit that this has not been proven by the exercise completed. Simple logic is all that is required to conclude this. In addition, the "edge" has never been adequately defined. It is up to the subjective opinion of the reader to define this for themselves. Therefore, the stated aim of this thread has NOT been accomplished.

In my humble opinion, a simplistic view of a successful trader is one who is skilled in predicting TIMING and DIRECTION. If one can master this then you will be successful.

What Socrates has proven, in my humble opinion, is that he has mastered this very, very, very difficult task. (I have assumed that the trades were actually placed by him, etc. I believe he deserves the benefit of the doubt).

To emphasise my point even more clearly, I'd like you to consider the following scenario:

Suppose another contributer to T2W, let's say his nick is "PYTHAGORUS", decided to prove that Option BUYERS have the edge over Option WRITERS by successfully completing 20 option trades, buying FTSE Call options over the past 3-4 weeks. He posted his trades live, and could be seen on the web etc. These 20 trades are all profitable. How many of you would then agree that PYTHAGORUS has proven his hypothesis? I would not. I would say that PYTHAGORUS is an excellent trader, and has mastered market TIMING and DIRECTION. He would deserve, in my opinion, equal respect and admiration as Socrates.

If PYTHAGORUS and SOCRATES sit opposite each other, each drinking a glass of their favourite tipple, each arguing that their case has been proven, who would win the argument? Surely they would go round and round and round in circles?

The above scenario illustrates why I believe the stated aim of this thread has not been proven. A DIFFERENT exercise would have to be carried out to PROVE this aim, after having DEFINED all the parameters involved, especially "EDGE".

Would one of you option experts please correct me if my grasp of options has been exposed for the inadequacy that is highly likely? Please show me the flaw in my logic.

(I also wonder how quickly someone will create the nick "PYTHAGORUS" and start posting live trades!!!!)

Not very quickly, I would say :idea:

Your thinking is as the majority, and that is not an insult, but a Fact.

Let me take another post, put it up here and comment, time permitting, and if not, I will follow up later.

Update:~
######

Total Realised Profits so far...................................................................................................£5255=

(this is not including trade E, carried out by CYOF)

Open Positions:~

Trades D, 6F, 7 and 9. all in FTSE 100 Apr 5925 puts, totalling 23 puts
written at a mean average price of
48.8260 each.

Market price to buy last seen at close to buy is 21


therefore current unrealised profit for these is (27.826 X 23 X 10) =.................................................................................................................................................... £6400=

....................And................


Trade number 12...

3 X FTSE 100 Index puts 6225 May written @ 115.5 and last seen 28

therefore Current Unrealised Profit for this one is (3 X 87.5X 10 ) = ..........................£ 2625=

Plus

Trade 15

6 Apr 6175 Written @ 84

Closing Price 52.5

(6 X 31.5 X10)= Unrealised Profit..........................................................................................£1890=

Plus....

Trade 15A

Written 3 May6225 @ 110
Closing Price 87.5

(3 x22.5 X10)= Unrealised Profit...............................................................................................£675=

Plus ....

Trade 16
Written 3May 6075 @ 74.5
Closing Price 56.5
(3 X 18 X10)= Unrealised Profit...............................................................................................£520=

Plus....

Trade17
Written 6 Mar6175 @ 42.5
Closing Price 21.5
(6 X 21 X10) =Unrealised Profit............................................................................................. £1260=

Plus...

Trade 19
Written2 May5925 @ 62
Closing Price 36
(2 X 26 X10)= Unrealised Profit.................................................................................................£520=

Plus...

Trade20
1 May6225 @ 116
Closing Price 87.5
(1 X28.5 X10)= Unrealised Profit................................................................................................£285=


Sub total of Unrealised Profits so far................................................................................ £14,175 =

Plus

Realised Profits so far carried down......................................................................................£5255=

Total Profits so far................................................................................................................... £19,430=
###############...................................................................................................................########

And all in under a month...in fact a total of only 18 trading days...

*************************************************************************************************

Now bluetipex,

You can waddle on about all the rubbish you so desire, about jimmy who might do this, and jack who might do that, but it is those that Just Do IT -thanks for that great phrase, Charlton - who gets things done :idea:

If you want to listen to all the usual non sensical rubbish from Profitaker and his buddies, who by his own admission does not even trade, then be my guest.

But, do not become like the majority here, whom, for some stupid reason, unknown to me, try to Tell others how to think.

What a mentality

Facts - Facts - Facts >>> Truth - Truth - Truth

Everything else, as some of our limited mind posters say, is nothing only pure drosse, or something to that effect. I prefer to call it, a total waste of time, and as Time = Money, I am sure we are all keen to cut all the bull and see what it is we really need to be looking at, as opposed to what we Think it is we should be looking at :idea:

Supposen, Supposen, 3 men were frozen

We do not have the time, nor the mentality, for supposen anything, period :idea:

Money = Time
Time = Watch
Watch = Opportunity
Opportunity = Movement
Movement = Error
Error = Feedback
Feedback = Adjust
Adjust = Money
Money = Time

Everything operates in cycles :idea:

The best cycles are the ones with harmonic vibrations :idea:

Time for Telly Tubby Toast

Au Revoir,

 

[Crap Buddist]

Aaahhhh ! Pennies seem to be beginning to drop here at last...

When you have many years watching and experiencing similar things they begin to become second nature, like for example you do not have to thnk of the route, if you have to go out of your home to post a letter or get a pint of milk because you "know" where the postbx is and you "know" where the corner shop that sells the milk is.

You "know" where these things are and if you close your eyes you can visualise them before you actually get there and see them in reality in front of you.

But a visitor would be lost and you would have to give directions.

Well, trading at the highest level is the same. You need years of experience to acquire the right map inside your head and to know in which direction to set out for you to ultimately obtain what you want with a major degree of certainty instead of getting lost. All this is a matter of trading maturity, and a deep knowledge of the environment in which you are occupying and operating in.

Ties in with "Worry not a paths form" Strangers turn up not knowing the position of the shop or the path to it, does it make sense to worry over which path and what turn ? Well you can worry if you like but is that likely to aid a successful journey to locating the shop all the worry, bizziness of mind , its distracting the mind from being perfectly able to "Find Shop"

Humans perhaps have a built in Sat Navigation system capable of locating everything?

I dont know (but I'm asking so I might already know and this question is a trigger to start recall?) but it would be interesting if anyone has any experience of just asking the mind to "Get" something to be known, then not even thought about it and at some point starts recieving ?

I dont mean forgotten memories , or a recall aid, but or unless we just recall everything anyway because it already is.

Triggers to obtain , we can do this by physical interaction trial and error or and by non physical solution methods, ie Mind go fetch ?

Absolute proof anyone of mind go fetch method?

 

[barjon]

First a moderator's plea: rudeness is rudeness whether it be initiated or in response so please be civil to each other.

As Split points out the discussion is going in circles, but I can't resist sticking in my twopennyworth. I said earlier in the thread that there seems to be two potential edges at play here - the first is about determining market direction and the second is about taking advantage of that via options. The thread is about the second and contends that writing options gives an edge all else being equal.

It is true to say that a series of successful trades does not provide proof positive, but what can constitute proof? One can produce some complex mathematics I suppose, or provide backtested results to the year dot, or consider potential performance against a range of hypothetical scenarios - but, at the end of the day, proof of the pudding is in the eating. That is all any trader will use - their consistent profits and a consistent swelling of their trading account satisfactorily (for them at least) demonstrates their edge.

I have never traded options (nor will I) but I can say that in over thirty years of trying I have never had twenty winning trades on the trot

good trading (options or not)

jon