Plain Vanilla Options Trades.

[SOCRATES]

Perhaps laptop1 is excluding the interest he earnt on his $87m when making his calculations.

Now, let's say he earnt 5% on this money. So that's $4.35m. Add the 40k (let's be generous and assume £s). So, that's $72,000 on last year's average exchange rate.

So, in actual fact, it seems that laptop is underestimating the actual level of income earnt, which is in fact $4.422m.

Or not.....

Yes agreed......

 

[dc2000]

You have not a clue and never will have.

Unnecessary expenses are not profits, they are losses.

When you finally arrive, you learn how to avoid unecessary expenses.

But in you stage of evolvement this is not something you would understand and I have neither the time nor the patience to explain to you in detail, and, in any event it is none of your business, as you have only just arrived and I have been at it a lifetme.

And of course it is not really your fault you have the perspective you have if you yourself are not a meaningful player, and just tinkering here and there and taking positions out of ego and stupidity and pride in the vain event you can prove me wrong.

Smoke and mirrors again Soc
straight answers only to the questions asked please

 

[zupcon]

Although wildly off topic I thought Id share this. A great example of how easy it is not to see the blindingly obvious.

http://www.mercola.com/2007/feb/8/mind-blowing-video-illustrating-how-easily-you-are-deceived.htm

regards
zup

 

[SOCRATES]

I'm, really quite disappointed that, after all these years, you could magine that I would take much that you say too seriously. Nevertheless, I respect your right to keep your edges to yourself, I doubt that anyone posting here is much different, unless he is a complete newbie, trying to learn from the bottom up. For their sakes, instead of trying to make the writing of naked put options sound so easy, you should emphasise the risks involved. I'm sure your ego would love that. It involves explaining how difficult, dangerous and foolhardy such a strategy is and that only you, and others like you, are capable of considering it.

The bottom line is that we shall never know how good, or bad, your trading decisions are any more than you know ours and so it is not much use being rude to each other.

Take care and I wish you luck

Split

I am not rude. To use an example, I show you the clock telling the correct time, with the hands going round and the chimes on the hour and the tick tock. That is all you need to tell the time, Spitlink.

I have neither the time patience or inclination to take anyone in to explain all the workings of the clock itself and why and if and but and if not and why not...

I am not here to give lessons on the mechanics or the finer points of clockwork.

I am here to display the face of the clock and the hands and to show the clock shows accurate time, that is all.

I am not here to educate or justify.

I am here to lay out the facts for all to see, in real time, with a live committment in a real market, that is all.

When did I ever imply any of this is easy, or when did I ever say newbies should get involved, when ?

This is the trouble with this topic, you expect too much, and are never content with what is given, which is already quite a lot, and it is for you to understand and not for me additionally to understand it for everybody additionally.

I am really getting exasperated and bored with the persistent torpor displayed here, I really am.

I do not write for the great majority. I will say it again. I only write for the absolute minority.

This is because it is obvious that only the absolute minority are able to logically deduce and reason without the difficulties the great majority seem to encounter.

See what I say below.

 

[PKFFW]

PKFFW

to answer your question 'everything is known in advance'
as some here know that i use geometry to tell me turning pointsand map the markets.
in a very simple scenario if a market made a low, then the market can only move in one direction. right?
naturally one has to know this is the low, without boring you on any one and as its off topic so apologies, how it made the low tells you how it will go up,
what i suspect Socrates and starspacer are saying in layman's terms is that if you know its a low then it has to go up so the logical stance it to buy.
dont forget im referring to a simple scenario, but i think you get the picture

I get what you are saying. However, correct me if I am wrong, unless the low made by the market is 0 then one would be uncertain if the market is going to go lower or higher. There would be some degree of uncertainty. Unless, that is, one 'knows everything in advance".

So claiming that...... "all outcomes are known in advance. Everything is known in advance." certainly seems to imply that one has absolute knowledge of the future happenings. This is a far cry from suggesting that one can know that the market is going to go up because it has collapsed to zero and the only way it can go is up!

Cheers,
PKFFW

 

[SOCRATES]

Smoke and mirrors again Soc
straight answers only to the questions asked please

You are not entitled to any answers. This is not a classroom. I have told you before and I will tell you again.

 

[SOCRATES]

So let me get this straight. Trader A and trader B make a series of 100 trades between each other. Trader A wins 75 trades at a profit of $5 per trade won. Trader B wins 25 trades at a profit of $100 per trade won. You would argue trader A has the edge over trader B?

At a rock bottom statistical level trader A won 3 out of 4 trades so he has the edge going by your logic.

I still know which trader I would prefer to be.

As your definition of edge seems to change with the wind throughout this thread, I would suggest what you are really trying to say is that the Writer has more ways of profiting than the Buyer. This is a simple statement of fact and requires no trades to be proven correct.

If you are trying to extrapolate from that statement that there is some inherent edge to writing over buying then you must come up with a specific definition of edge first in order to prove that hypothesis. You must then come up with an experiment that accounts for all possible variables to test that hypothesis. If the hypothesis passes the test then the hypothesis is proved.

So I'm still waiting with an open mind to be shown proof one way or the other.

Cheers,
PKFFW

PKFFW, please,don't be tiresome. I don't have to anythng. All I have to do is show you the results, because they speak for themselves. Or do I have to repeat the excercise 500 times for you to finally get it ? Please....it is obvious for all to see. Blatantly obvious really.

 

[andycan]

I get what you are saying. However, correct me if I am wrong, unless the low made by the market is 0 then one would be uncertain if the market is going to go lower or higher. There would be some degree of uncertainty. Unless, that is, one 'knows everything in advance".

So claiming that...... "all outcomes are known in advance. Everything is known in advance." certainly seems to imply that one has absolute knowledge of the future happenings. This is a far cry from suggesting that one can know that the market is going to go up because it has collapsed to zero and the only way it can go is up!

Cheers,
PKFFW

yes and no if it went to zero that market wont trade anymore and in stocks i think the writing is on the wall when its going to tank but its clear indexes such as the FTSE and SP have have a certain reputation to uphold unlike Stock or commodities.

when a market makes a low or high it has in my opinion tale tale signs, im looking at those signs in advance, im picturing it my head how its getting there and why, commercials in commodities have a manner different to the pros, they in turn have a different approach from institutions, and so forth
naturally a market can do anything, but from experience it never does, it does the same old thing.
sometimes its so clear you can see right through it other times not so clear, i dont state to have all the answers but when its clear you have to approach it accordingly

regards

 

[ducati998]

Those are Star Chamber matters not suitable for dissemination in a public forum.

But even at a rock bottom statistical level "it is obvious, it is screaming at you"...as Pod G says, because the buyer has only 1 chance in 3 of getting it right, and because the writer has 3 chances out of 4 of getting it right. So just grasping at a rock bottom statistical level is sufficient to illustrate and prove the point that the writers have the edge over the buyers.

Incorrect again, as usual.

jog on
d998

 

[PKFFW]

PKFFW, please,don't be tiresome. I don't have to anythng. All I have to do is show you the results, because they speak for themselves. Or do I have to repeat the excercise 500 times for you to finally get it ? Please....it is obvious for all to see. Blatantly obvious really.

Sorry, of course you don't have to anything. Poor choice of words there. What I meant to say is that if you actually want to achieve your stated aim in this thread you will need to follow the method I laid out. You don't have to though. You are quite right about that.

As for the results speaking for themselves., yes they do. They simply do not say what you are claiming they say though. Which is why I keep asking for this proof you claim you wish to present in this thread. Thus far you have not presented it. Of course you do not have to present it, however you really shouldn't claim to be doing so if you have no intention of actually doing so.

Cheers,
PKFFW

 

[PKFFW]

yes and no if it went to zero that market wont trade anymore and in stocks i think the writing is on the wall when its going to tank but its clear indexes such as the FTSE and SP have have a certain reputation to uphold unlike Stock or commodities.

when a market makes a low or high it has in my opinion tale tale signs, im looking at those signs in advance, im picturing it my head how its getting there and why, commercials in commodities have a manner different to the pros, they in turn have a different approach from institutions, and so forth
naturally a market can do anything, but from experience it never does, it does the same old thing.
sometimes its so clear you can see right through it other times not so clear, i dont state to have all the answers but when its clear you have to approach it accordingly

regards

As you say, "a market can do anything". That's what I'm getting at. So there would naturally be some uncertainty unless one has this absolute knowledge Soc seems to be alluding to.

Now that absolute knowledge being the case for arguments sake, it matters not how many profitable trades in a row he shows as he would be able to do the same regardless of the instrument or instrument used.

Cheers,
PKFFW

 

[andycan]

As you say, "a market can do anything". That's what I'm getting at. So there would naturally be some uncertainty unless one has this absolute knowledge Soc seems to be alluding to.

Now that absolute knowledge being the case for arguments sake, it matters not how many profitable trades in a row he shows as he would be able to do the same regardless of the instrument or instrument used.

Cheers,
PKFFW

PKFFW

many of Socrates views i agree with, i have spoken many times with him and i can tell you he does have an intimate knowledge of the markets that in my opinion is unquestionable, now how he shares his knowledge and how he deals with many members here is really up to him, not exactly how i would do it but then each to their own.
now speaking from my own experience i have nailed highs and lows to a T, what i can't tell you for sure is how it will get there and when i have an idea and sometimes im spot on and other times im out by a few days and on longer term trades maybe a few weeks, it happens,
but the point it reaches was known in advance. i suspect Socrates knows where the market is going and i suspect he knows at what point the FTSE will start to slow down on the upmoves (price), what he may not be able to tell you is how long it will take to get there (time) so with that said, if you know where its going to go but not 100% when, then naturally you have to still be cautious and certainly with options time is the factor.
maybe im wrong but certainly from where i stand that would be the tough part not impossible but certainly tough

regards

 

[charliechan]

i must say, recently i have found www.dailyspeculations.com a far more interesting read than this tiresome dross.

real thinkers with something that proves more thought

 

[laptop1]

You put a lot of work in trying to figure out who I am.

So do tell me. I'm intrigued to who I am!

I aks again, "where is you symbol gone. did it scare you".

 

[SOCRATES]

You put a lot of work in trying to figure out who I am.

So do tell me. I'm intrigued to who I am!

I aks again, "where is you symbol gone. did it scare you".

If you are not embarrased by it you must be retarded.....

 

[laptop1]

If you are not embarrased by it you must be retarded.....

You have not answed my question. who do you think I am. Tell the pepole on this thread. go on do tell.....If not keep quiet http://216.239.59.104/search?q=cach...s+passwords&hl=en&ct=clnk&cd=8&gl=uk&ie=UTF-8
do you know the pass

 

[dc2000]

I'm starting to think that people here are just using this thread to take cheap shots at Socs?

PKFFW, seems to be making all kinds of senarios up of the top of his head and calling them fact!

It's becomming more and more ludicrous by the minute.

perhaps if Soc got down off the "I am holier than thou and my word is gospel" box we could all have a reasoned debate

Now I can understand the phrase "everything is known in advance" with regard to a trader achieving a level of competence in the markets traded but would personally be more comfortable with the phrase "based on knowledge and experience the next move is anticipated with a high degree of certainty"

 

[Priceman]

I'm just reading a book and whilst popping in here to see what's going on I thought I'd paste from the book.... It's about a genius mathematician... I thought very apt for this thread. £10000 (of Socrates money ) to the person who knows what the book is or who it's talking about...

"His contemporaries, on the whole, found him immensely strange. They described him as aloof, haughty, without affect, detached, spooky, isolated and queer. He mingled rather than mixed with his peers. Preoccupied by his own private reality, he seemed not to share their mundane concerns. His manner- slightly cold, a bit superior, somewhat secretive - suggested something mysterious and unnatural. His remoteness was puntuated by flights of garrulousness about outer-space and geopolitical trends, childish pranks and unpredictable erruptions of anger. But these outbursts were, more often than not, as enigmatic as his silences. "He is not one of us" was a constant refrain."

I have said already that I am very impressed with what Soc is doing, be it him or whoever is doing the actual trading, to get consistent rewards like that is very very good. Not sure about the direction of the thread though and what the final understanding of a layperson like me will get about buying or writing options.... who has the edge then?

Spose I'll keep reading though! Keeps the sanity in check

 

[counter_violent]

I'm just reading a book and whilst popping in here to see what's going on I thought I'd paste from the book.... It's about a genius mathematician... I thought very apt for this thread. £10000 (of Socrates money ) to the person who knows what the book is or who it's talking about...

"His contemporaries, on the whole, found him immensely strange. They described him as aloof, haughty, without affect, detached, spooky, isolated and queer. He mingled rather than mixed with his peers. Preoccupied by his own private reality, he seemed not to share their mundane concerns. His manner- slightly cold, a bit superior, somewhat secretive - suggested something mysterious and unnatural. His remoteness was puntuated by flights of garrulousness about outer-space and geopolitical trends, childish pranks and unpredictable erruptions of anger. But these outbursts were, more often than not, as enigmatic as his silences. "He is not one of us" was a constant refrain."

I have said already that I am very impressed with what Soc is doing, be it him or whoever is doing the actual trading, to get consistent rewards like that is very very good. Not sure about the direction of the thread though and what the final understanding of a layperson like me will get about buying or writing options.... who has the edge then?

Spose I'll keep reading though! Keeps the sanity in check

Nash....A Beautiful Mind...?

 

[zupcon]

I'm just reading a book and whilst popping in here to see what's going on I thought I'd paste from the book.... It's about a genius mathematician... I thought very apt for this thread. £10000 (of Socrates money ) to the person who knows what the book is or who it's talking about...

Newton ?