Best Thread Phil Newton's Range Break Out strategy

[Newtron Bomb]

Trading plan up date

As planned for Asian session ranges developed break outs in line with identified trends so far on AUDUSD GBPUSD CADJPY USDCHF GBPJPY EURUSD out of teh small list of cross rates that I look at.

most of those running nicely folks looks like teh day could be done by 10am ... just like the old days and out for a lunch time beer

hope you all got a piece of the action

Phil

 

[Newtron Bomb]

Hi Folks,

Taking a look back at the days trading and comparing what was expected and planned for to what actually happen... pretty dull day couple of break outs couple of Fib set ups... several hundred pips in the bank across AUDUSD GBPUSD CADJPY USCHF GBPJPY EURJPY EURUSD AUDJPY

Hope you all had an equally boring day

Hit the reset button now because I'm doing it all again come tomorrow morning.

Happy trading

Phil

 

[Newtron Bomb]

Hi Folks,

Today's video probably fall more under the trading tips/tutorial section more than anything as the main thing I highlight is the types of things that I try to do prior to a new days trading session.

Ultimately what I'm trying to do is think about "what could happen next" and try to come up with scenario's relative to my trading plan and the things that I look for leading into a new trading set up.

At all times I'm trying to answer 3 basis question;

Where is price now?
What is it doing?
How can I get involved, if price goes up, down or sideways?

Have a good days trading

Phil

 

[Newtron Bomb]

Forex Video | 08 June '09 | 8am update
USD cross rates are looking the best trading opportunities for me this morning... some Asian session ranges in good locations

 

[Newtron Bomb]

Forex Video | 08 June '09 | 8:30am update
GBPUSD trend joining entry on a pullback

EURUSD Break out of consol during Asian session

USDCHF Break out of consol during Asian session

AUDUSD Break out through Asian session and last Thursdays low

 

[oiltanker]

yes nice euro short today but only about 25pts left on my adr which is more or less where the s1 pivot [for me] is. so 850ish might be bouncy castle zone.

ideally then to retrace to retest from below breakout level 925ish

 

[Newtron Bomb]

Forex Video | 08 June '09 | 9:15am update
ATM triggers hit - starting to lock profits in on all these trades now...

What a lovely way to start the week off

 

[oiltanker]

this week might be the best trending week of the month as next week is full of expiration dates? [ie broker manipulation to avoid paying off on options]

 

[Newtron Bomb]

Forex Video | 08 June '09 | 9:25am update
Getting near the 100% of average days move levels now so would anticipate that prices are going to slow down a little now

Next thing I'll be looking for assuming that this happens will be some significant retracements and then start looking to re-position myself based on fibs... initially starting with current days highs and lows and looking for at least a 50% retracement

Failing that I will be looking to continue ATM on my trades

 

[Newtron Bomb]

Forex Video | 08 June '09 | 10:50am update
OK so looking at the charts now I can see that on my open trades 75% to 90% of Daily ATR has been done. What I expect to be done for the day has been done or mostly done now so I have a low expectation of further movement.

This doesn't mean to say that there will not be further movement just the likelihood of seeing another 50 60 or 100 pip move is reeeaaaally slim.

My intraday portions of EURUSD and USDCHF have now been stopped out for some small pips +30 and +35 respectively. Swing portions of the trade still remain on so any further movements I will have exposure to.

AUDUSD still hanging in there by a thread and as I type is trying to pop a new low so I can continue to ATM and lock some more pips in.

GBPUSD ATM has not started yet and I'm looking for a new low on the move before locking in some pips.

As ATR moves have mostly now been done for new trades I'm waiting for Fib retracements so that I can recapture some of my profit potential.

 

[Newtron Bomb]

Forex Video | 08 June '09 | 13:00 update
Still waiting for EURUSD AUDUSD USDCHF to retrace a little before committing to a new trade. GBPUSD currently at 61% fib as time of writing for a new fib set up... selling the rally in a downtrend.

 

[trendie]

any updates on Phils new system?
he developed some kind of alternate rule-set that works in "all market conditions".

wonder if anyone has tried it, and the preliminary results?

 

[gamma]

This brilliant thread has been dormant for a while
Does anyone know what time period Phils uses for the overnight range.
Is it from 10 pm gmt to 7am gmt ?
or is it
8pm gmt to 8 am gmt?

 

[Donkers]

Not that specific I don't think. Just overnight UK time, as I understand it.

I would say that if you, say, open your charts anywhere on (or off) the planet at around 0600GMT, 0700GMT or 0800GMT etc and there looked to be an "overnight" uk gmt range, even a 12+ hour one, that'll be one I reckon.

imho, fwiw.

(Every time I log on to this site I get a message reminding me that i haven't posted for several weeks, so now I have. :clap: )

This brilliant thread has been dormant for a while
Does anyone know what time period Phils uses for the overnight range.
Is it from 10 pm gmt to 7am gmt ?
or is it
8pm gmt to 8 am gmt?

 

[hornblower]

This brilliant thread has been dormant for a while
Does anyone know what time period Phils uses for the overnight range.
Is it from 10 pm gmt to 7am gmt ?
or is it
8pm gmt to 8 am gmt?

11pm to 6 am
but as you know things change !

 

[Newtron Bomb]

This brilliant thread has been dormant for a while
Does anyone know what time period Phils uses for the overnight range.
Is it from 10 pm gmt to 7am gmt ?
or is it
8pm gmt to 8 am gmt?

From a time point of view what others have already posted is about right.

I'm not looking for a time based range... read the first post and watch videos. I'm looking for a consolidation that usually develops during the Asian session.

The range can develop before the start of the Asian session and go on long after the finnish.

Ranges are always based on price

I stopped posting (again) as pretty much every time I start to regularly post the d!ck heads crawl out of the woodwork and start sending abuse

 

[Newtron Bomb]

Black Swan... the mind boggles!

While I'm I might as well put something useful up for anyone reading

First thing to keep in mind is that xmas hols just around the corner and price movements are very sluggish... year end and quarter end profit taking or keeping might prevent anything substantial developing... although that doesnt mean to say it cant or wont happen

GBPUSD Larger range plain as daylight so excuse my lack of chart... if you want to put a label on it - symmetrical triangle... but who cares what its called, right? lol

Price moved through resistance and doing so day from its start point means therere there is not much potential for a new trade right now so dont go chasing this one just yet. Best options look for a retracement where potential based on daily ATR moves comes back in your favour to offer a better potential return on your entry level. Alternatively, waiting to see what develops tomorrow if the potential doesnt come back in line for today.

Asian session ideally would be nice to see a consol during this session overnight for a break out.

No signs of rejection of the larger break out move just yet and isnt powering away just yet either. I would imagine a few dumb text book bracket traders are feeling happy with themselves right now... so a shake out of these bracket traders might be expected if price does retrace and I'd keep an eye on approx 1.6300 1.6250 ish levels if that retracement does happen.

Overall its the end of or very nearly the end of the year. Down tools if you have not done already and enjoy some family time and the festive holidays which is just what I'll be doing this Friday

Remember buy when it goes up, sell when it goes down... getting in the move is the complete opposite...

Buy when it goes down in and uptrend
Sell when it goes up in a downtrend

Call me old fashioned but thats what trading a trend is all about

 

[Newtron Bomb]

Following up on GBP comments

Break out move eventually did give a sign of rejection, dark cloud cover, pin, shooting star... whatever its called... who cares.

Running straight back down to stop out those clever clogs bracket traders... not so clever now eh!

As teh break out has rejected what I would now do is highlight the new extreme boundary high and include that in my range. So price still in a range, waitiing for a break out move.

Range traders or reversal trades would have loved this one, pain free 100 + pips or more depending on your entry

Black Swan... the mind boggles!

While I'm I might as well put something useful up for anyone reading

First thing to keep in mind is that xmas hols just around the corner and price movements are very sluggish... year end and quarter end profit taking or keeping might prevent anything substantial developing... although that doesnt mean to say it cant or wont happen

GBPUSD Larger range plain as daylight so excuse my lack of chart... if you want to put a label on it - symmetrical triangle... but who cares what its called, right? lol

Price moved through resistance and doing so day from its start point means therere there is not much potential for a new trade right now so dont go chasing this one just yet. Best options look for a retracement where potential based on daily ATR moves comes back in your favour to offer a better potential return on your entry level. Alternatively, waiting to see what develops tomorrow if the potential doesnt come back in line for today.

Asian session ideally would be nice to see a consol during this session overnight for a break out.

No signs of rejection of the larger break out move just yet and isnt powering away just yet either. I would imagine a few dumb text book bracket traders are feeling happy with themselves right now... so a shake out of these bracket traders might be expected if price does retrace and I'd keep an eye on approx 1.6300 1.6250 ish levels if that retracement does happen.

Overall its the end of or very nearly the end of the year. Down tools if you have not done already and enjoy some family time and the festive holidays which is just what I'll be doing this Friday

Remember buy when it goes up, sell when it goes down... getting in the move is the complete opposite...

Buy when it goes down in and uptrend
Sell when it goes up in a downtrend

Call me old fashioned but thats what trading a trend is all about

 

[Newtron Bomb]

Following up on GBP comments

Retail sales taking the low of the range out now.
Same deal average days move done so realisticly I'm not planning on a new trade on the break out move just yet.

Need to see a more significant retracement and look for a Fib retracement set up to sell the rally on the break out move and recapture some of the days potential

If I dont see a retracement then an overnight range for tomorrow will give me a fresh days potenial

No signs of break out rejection just yet but will be assessed

Got to feel for those bracket traders... shorts for them will have triggered as well now and most likely could see price retrace to stop run those suckers. And they will be flipped on both sides of the range. Ouch!

 

[Newtron Bomb]

Yet another GBP break out follow up... Bracket traders getting nailed by a convict called Gordo

GBP really highlighting why you should throw the text book nonsense in the trash... right now the short bracket traders sweating and wondering if stops will get hit and praying that they won't while the sensible traders waiting for those retracements and confirmatio of continuation moves.

Signs of break out rejection similar to the false break out through the highs yesterday
Stops most likely will be hit around 1.6200 1.6250