Best Thread Phil Newton's Range Break Out strategy

[Newtron Bomb]

little bit of old news on that front but point well taken.

Banks stoped lending money to each other a long time ago to the extent that was normal practice...

volumes are thin big banks going bust, cats and dogs raining out of teh sky will most likely be next as the unlikely seems to be the most likely thing to happen of late

Big boys been taking advantage of this over the last 6 weeks pushing price back and forth beyond normal market conditions

All this is going on as well as the global and political muppet show that is developing that is worthy of prime time childrens hour

 

[ffsear]

Hi Phil,

I'm fairly new to trading and forex and have found your posts and videos very helpful. I have been trying to follow your stratagy but over the last few days I have not had much luck... although its only been a few days.

Whould you consider the current market conditions to be the reason for this, given the recent news for the US etc etc. As I said im new(ish) to trading but even newer to forex, I don't really know how the markets behave normally and I'm wondering if I've picked the worst time to start looking at forex (having mainly focused on UK100 shares in the past)

Charlie

 

[doberman]

FFsear,
thats a question I would love to hear the answer as i my self having just started trading
pre summer 08,
Is i going to get better or worse?

 

[caprica1]

Hi Phil,

I'm fairly new to trading and forex and have found your posts and videos very helpful. I have been trying to follow your stratagy but over the last few days I have not had much luck... although its only been a few days.

Whould you consider the current market conditions to be the reason for this, given the recent news for the US etc etc. As I said im new(ish) to trading but even newer to forex, I don't really know how the markets behave normally and I'm wondering if I've picked the worst time to start looking at forex (having mainly focused on UK100 shares in the past)

Charlie

Hi ffsear

I joined Phils's live trading room and website about 3 weeks ago now, and first of all I would say there is never a wring time to start doing anything. Just the time that is right for you.

I was a Forex noob when I joined Phil's site. I started off with just the website access only for a weel and read through the articles on the site. I'll admit I was overwhelmed at first and wondered whether I would ever understand.

I made the decision to join the Phil's live trading room after a week on the website, and can honestly say my understanding and knowledge has grown each week since then. I made the decision to trade live with Phil for the first week, which with hindsight, wasn't the best decision for me. I have now, for the past 2 weeks been paper trading and constantly reading the articles on the site. I can now identlify the overnight and previous days ranges, identify whether the chart will be a B.O or Fib setup.

I had tried a few of the EA's knocking about, and had no luck, so decided to abandon any ideas of getting rich quick, and I invested in my future by learning the skills and techniques to trade on my own without using any "wonder" robots. lol. I will say it took a couple of weeks to get my eyes used to seeing the things on the charts, and to get my brain to soak up the info.

I know this sounds like a sales pitch, but I'm not on commission, or a familt member of Phil's lol. I just honestly believe you will learn alot with Phil and the community of traders in the live room and website.

Any way, that's only my opinion, the only way to find out is try.:smart:

Good luck and happy trading.

 

[Newtron Bomb]

Hi Phil,

I'm fairly new to trading and forex and have found your posts and videos very helpful. I have been trying to follow your stratagy but over the last few days I have not had much luck... although its only been a few days.

Whould you consider the current market conditions to be the reason for this, given the recent news for the US etc etc. As I said im new(ish) to trading but even newer to forex, I don't really know how the markets behave normally and I'm wondering if I've picked the worst time to start looking at forex (having mainly focused on UK100 shares in the past)

Charlie

Hello and thank you for your question.

Difficult times at the moment making learning any new strategy harder than normal.

The last few weeks have for break outs been very hard indeed with many Asian session trends which doesnt help for intraday trading.

The last few days though have seen some larger pattern ranges develop which could well help to trigger continuations or some new short term direction

I think that the long story short is that the whole world is up smelly brown stuff creak and its now a question of which country is going to take a dive first.

There are good opportunities out there but it really is a question of sit tight and wait for those set ups that fit your trading plan.

Most of the big swingers like the big banks are sitting on cash which also doesnt help the money flow which ultimately creates the movements. The big dogs as far as I can tell are pushing price around against each other which is seeing a lot of intraday swings up and down several times during a day.... and then wooosh one big 500 pip movement which if your on it great and if your not leaves you scratching you head.

Be patient wait for the set ups... break outs are not the only pattern you can trade with as I use fibs a lot... an awful lot at the moment... which is outside the scope of this break out thread for the moment. but is covered plentifully else where in this site

For new or newer traders especially it is prob a really good time to be on the demo accout. no other business allows you to practice before putting real money on the line, you can make all the mistakes you want while you learn in these very choppy conditions.

Rome wasnt built in a day and a new career isnt devloped overnight

 

[Newtron Bomb]

Caprica1

Thank you so much for your comments... we did have a very long discusion about the way your trading career could go, and I'm thrilled that my help is helping make some serious headway into your learning in these choppy times.

Cheque is in the post

 

[caprica1]

Caprica1

Thank you so much for your comments... we did have a very long discusion about the way your trading career could go, and I'm thrilled that my help is helping make some serious headway into your learning in these choppy times.

Cheque is in the post

Every time I read your articles I seem to find something that "clicks", or think "hang on a minute, it didn't say that when I read it last week. Has he changed something on here overnight"

The more I read about the "traditional" chart patterns, the more I understand how we're trading in your live room. It's an education, and I'm enjoying the learning.

n.b. I know your not a football fan, but nice one Liverpool for beating the Blue noses today!

 

[PaulKing]

Average days move

Hi Phil

Great thread, please keep the videos coming - repetition is how we learn things, we newbies want to learn not only the mechanics of what you do (this could be achieve by watching the same video clip over & over until we could watch it with the sound muted and speak all of the words) but why you do things (this is the application which becomes clearer over time by seeing you apply the same system to many different scenarios). Only when we have truly mastered both can we hope to be able to replicate your behavior and therefore trading success

btw is there an automated way of getting your average days move value? (If I recall from one of your video's correctly you take the average of the previous 100 days). Before I get my spreadsheets out and type in 100 high & low values, for each pair - is there a simple way (like the difference between a couple of moving average plots)?

thanks - hope there more break out set ups next week that there was last
Paul

 

[gamma]

Hi Phil

Great thread, please keep the videos coming - repetition is how we learn things, we newbies want to learn not only the mechanics of what you do (this could be achieve by watching the same video clip over & over until we could watch it with the sound muted and speak all of the words) but why you do things (this is the application which becomes clearer over time by seeing you apply the same system to many different scenarios). Only when we have truly mastered both can we hope to be able to replicate your behavior and therefore trading success

btw is there an automated way of getting your average days move value? (If I recall from one of your video's correctly you take the average of the previous 100 days). Before I get my spreadsheets out and type in 100 high & low values, for each pair - is there a simple way (like the difference between a couple of moving average plots)?

thanks - hope there more break out set ups next week that there was last
Paul

Hi Paul king,
I had a similar problem with the ranges and trading times
I use these sites to help me I Don't think these guys are selling anything I think they are just brokers. I find the info useful hope its of help to you
Forex Goodies - Daily Ranges
FXMarketHours - OANDA FXTrade

 

[Newtron Bomb]

Or you could use the Average True Range on a daily chart

 

[Newtron Bomb]

Another fib day for me folks need to see at least 50% retracements before considering joining these trends

 

[ffsear]

Thanks for your reply Phil. I had a good winning trade this morning. Hopefully i'm getting the h\ang of this now.

 

[ffsear]

This was EURCHF Btw

 

[Newtron Bomb]

Hi There

A Good Trade not on my usual trade list but a few guys in my room were talking about it at the time it developed.

Well Done

 

[Newtron Bomb]

Hi Folks,

Taking a short break from the videos at the moment both here and on my own site.

My health non to great at the moment which is an ongoing issue for me (crohn's disease)

Fatigue is my main issue and I'm simply drained at the moment... so I'm just cutting back on a few of the daily things I normally do until I'm back on top form.

If there are any questions or queries on the thread here I'll get them answered for you.

 

[chartgonzo]

Take care of yourself Phil

thanks for taking the time & trouble to let us all know

best
Paul

Life is sometimes surreal...........Over the years, I have visited so many sites, been a member of so many chat rooms, services, quack guru operations I never thought that the most well articulated, no BS, mentor site ( with, it seems, many loyal and compassionate member/fans) would be run by a fellow scouser from just over the Mersey. When I first heard this scouse accent in his vid I watched yesterday, I thought: This can't be right, whats this scouse scally scamming to me.............but as I listened, it became clear that this guy, firstly, knows what he's talking about, secondly, knows how to communicate what he knows clearly and effectively and thirdly makes his living traded day in day out like me, but seems to be somewhat more successful than me by quite a long way. As I watched some more vids and read some more of the free sections on his site, I realised that I knew everyting he was showing me.........but I had never understood the significance of any of it. I was watching and reading about familiar things but applied in a way which, Booooooooom! I suddenly thought, I know this stuff, I have been watching the same charts ( or similar, stocks, futures etc) as this guy, but I've never seen past the candlesticks....................a bit like one of those pictures that are made up of dots and as you move away, a portrait gradually comes into focus.

I don't know Phil but I hope he feels better sometime soon and I look forward to hopefully learning a lot from him.

 

[gamma]

As this is my 500th post I want to make it a memorable one and give something back.

I have been using phil's break out technique for many years now, I use a template that I worked out that that is of great help to me in keeping with Phil's strategy.
I have contacted phil and have his kind permission to add a attachment of my template,
Its very simple and you might want to refine to your own particular method, The important thing about having a template is it helps to keep you focused and makes you aware of things to watch it certainly helps me.
Hope some traders of phils strategy find a use for it or it helps you build your own.

 

[Newtron Bomb]

Recorded Webinar hosted by FX Street

Hi Folks,

On Wed 8th October I presented a different view of trading that I use when break outs are not available. With the current market volatility this is pretty much the only way that I'm trading to take advantage of the big swing and to identify a method to jump on board some of the moves.

Its a little rushed at the end of the presentation but I go through swing trading with this method, day trading for the main move of the day and also very quickly at the end due to time constraints the same strategy for scalping.

Enjoy the Fibonacci Presentation on FX Street
FXstreet.com Live Sessions Archives: Trading Break Out's And Other Market Views

Happy Trading

Phil

 

[mik1973]

Stop loss- Profit taking query

Stop loss - profit taking query
Been reading this thread with interest but have a question with regard to placement of the correct stop loss and profit taking.
Best way to describe this query is by way of an example.

Lets say that currency x/y has an average day’s move of 100 pips
On a particular day the low of the day has been recorded as 1.5000. A long range break out has been identified at 1.5065. (conveniently 65% of average day’s move). This target is then “hit” and a retracement follows. The price retraces to 1.5010 (55 point downwards move), before moving back up and beyond the target of 1.5065.(conveniently top of break out high)

Hope the above makes sense because my stop loss and profit taking query follows.
If a stop loss is placed around or below retracement of 1.5010 would a profit taking target of 1.5100 be actioned ( as this would represent 100% ) of an average days move. Alternatively (with regard to Phils profit phasing technique) would the target be 1.5093 (28 points which is approximately half of the retracement move added to the original target of 1.5065)
Although in these examples the difference in pips is negligible (7 pips) what i’m getting at is would there be a level where the risk reward simply isn’t viable .(ie the phasing strategy in this example has a risk reward of 1:2). Just wondering if there would be a maximum stop loss in pip value or an alternative method where the risk reward can be improved.

Also hope the above makes some sense.

Cheers
Mick

 

[Newtron Bomb]

Ok forst of all with regards to a break out trade If you have under normal market conditions (which we dont have at the moment.) a 100 pip average high to low range and price has already done 65% or 65 pips in this example.. do you have a range in the first place for a break out trade? probably not in most cases.

The inital profit target as you say is quite small it not neccessarily to be viewed as a profit target as this is how I MANAGE the trade to a break even point as opposed to physically moving my stop loss. This first scale out it to remove the risk on the trade.

As for the example you use check out the recent webinar I conducted on FX Street, link above. This will help you fefine some of those entries for break outs like in this example or for when the majority of an average days move has been done, as in the example you gave my normal practice woul dbe to look for a fib set up, this will reduce teh risk and increase the profit potential based on the ATR's for that pair in this example.