Best Thread Phil Newton's Range Break Out strategy

[Newtron Bomb]

Bracket trades in a word of hurt right now, having been spanked on both side of the range on GBP.

Break out pullback trades will be happy to have avoided the whippy price aciton by waiting patiently for the right conditions.

Yet another GBP break out follow up... Bracket traders getting nailed by a convict called Gordo

GBP really highlighting why you should throw the text book nonsense in the trash... right now the short bracket traders sweating and wondering if stops will get hit and praying that they won't while the sensible traders waiting for those retracements and confirmatio of continuation moves.

Signs of break out rejection similar to the false break out through the highs yesterday
Stops most likely will be hit around 1.6200 1.6250

 

[trendie]

good to see you posting again, Phil.

since you're here....

could you give any stats on your new trading system, that accounts for all market conditions.
I got some info from you a while ago, and wonder if you have enough trades to give some overall assessment.
thanks

(seems like the overnight range method, in all its variations, is a popular technique)

 

[Newtron Bomb]

With my new strategy I'm averaging 1140 pips a week over 6 cross rates. That figure is rebased to reflect if you were trading with 1 lot. To acheive this I use a min of 3 lots for my trade management

The strategy would have got you long before the break out on GBP and short before the break out on GBP hitting targets both ways.

 

[trendie]

With my new strategy I'm averaging 1140 pips a week over 6 cross rates. That figure is rebased to reflect if you were trading with 1 lot. To acheive this I use a min of 3 lots for my trade management

The strategy would have got you long before the break out on GBP and short before the break out on GBP hitting targets both ways.

thats averaging about 200 pips per week per pair? thats good.

is this strat an all-day system, or do you trade at specific times of the day?

can you quantify the average risk per trade?

do you take a single trade per day, or multiple trades per day?

thanks. sorry for being nosey, but Im trying to find out if I can find anything to improve my own method, with better trade management or better exits, etc.

 

[Newtron Bomb]

The new strategy is more pips less work with clear rules and specific trade times...

its a way to trade with your feet up and not worry about ever price m ovement on the screen

Risk size per trade varies consderably depending on the trade set up from 20 pips upwards

 

[Newtron Bomb]

GBP moving lovely away from the 1.6250 level now the stop run is over. Reacting well of the 61% Fib at 1.6241 with fibs from yesterdays highs to todays lows

Now the stop running and the "bully bashing" of the bracket traders is done a real move now should be seen.

Confirmation of movements below 1.6075 for contnuation... might see 1.57ish levels before years end but I'm not holding my breath. Retest of lows of week most likely expectation for this week but has potetnial to get to 1.59ish levels whichi unless something major happens I do not think we will see before the week is over

 

[Newtron Bomb]

retest of Low of week as anticipated.

What a lovely finnish to my years trading

Have a good one folks

 

[oildaytrader]

This is a thread to discuss the breakout strategy not launch personal attacks on phil.
If you want to launch any personal grievences against Phil, I suggest you start a new thread.
Regardless of your views, a lot of people use his strategy without being a member of his live room and benefit from it.
I am reporting your post and hopefully it will be removed please limit your further postings on this thread to the strategy only.

I have tried to use Phil's strategy and back tested many variations of this strategy.I personally wouldn't use it on a live account .Whatever profit is made by mediocre trading methods is often taken away by bucket shops, leaving nothing for the trader.

Its is useful for new traders to learn from and develop their own versions.It may be profitable with true ECN brokers.

 

[gamma]

I have tried to use Phil's strategy and back tested many variations of this strategy.I personally wouldn't use it on a live account .Whatever profit is made by mediocre trading methods is often taken away by bucket shops, leaving nothing for the trader.

Its is useful for new traders to learn from and develop their own versions.It may be profitable with true ECN brokers.

Oildaytrader you have nailed it as in your quote above.

I do not follow the exact method but it has certainly helped me develop a method.

 

[oildaytrader]

I have tried to use Phil's strategy and back tested many variations of this strategy.I personally wouldn't use it on a live account .Whatever profit is made by mediocre trading methods is often taken away by bucket shops, leaving nothing for the trader.



Oildaytrader you have nailed it as in your quote above.

I do not follow the exact method but it has certainly helped me develop a method.

Breakout strategies work well in trading,they make their profits in market conditions favourable to breakouts.A trader should also have other systems/methods to deal with other types of market conditions.A portfolio of different breakout systems on multiple instruments can also be profitable.

Performance below of two different breakout systems on euro usd over a 8 year period.One system is more consistent than the other .

 

[barryb]

I have tried to use Phil's strategy and back tested many variations of this strategy.I personally wouldn't use it on a live account .Whatever profit is made by mediocre trading methods is often taken away by bucket shops, leaving nothing for the trader.

Its is useful for new traders to learn from and develop their own versions.It may be profitable with true ECN brokers.

I know for a fact that Phil has done very well for himself over many years using the exact same 'mediocre' method that you're not able to profit from.

 

[oildaytrader]

I know for a fact that Phil has done very well for himself over many years using the exact same 'mediocre' method that you're not able to profit from.

Methods are very personal to each individual trader, that is why they work for the people who designed them.Every trader is an individual and sees everything differently,trades differently and executes trades differently.

Will it work for everybody else?Will 10,000 athletes run a marathon at the same pace?

 

[barryb]

Agreed, whatever strategy a trader chooses to go with, they should make it their own by listening to mental conflicts that occur when they trade a method not designed by themselves.

 

[brooks79]

Sounds like a very sound system. The problem that most people have is simply following any rules, EVERY time.... I for one, have battled with this issue of not following my trading plan every time.. I would submit that there are more people who fail for this simple reason alone. IMHO. It has personally taken me many years to shrug off the losses and continue to have the discipline it takes to follow my rules.... If I have learned one thing, it's to TRADE my plan, and not let the emotions of a few losses impact a sound trading plan.

 

[spreader_legger]

Out of interest, what overnight range does Phil use for the Japanese and Aussie pairs?

 

[Paul71]

Breakout strategies work well in trading,they make their profits in market conditions favourable to breakouts.A trader should also have other systems/methods to deal with other types of market conditions.A portfolio of different breakout systems on multiple instruments can also be profitable.

Performance below of two different breakout systems on euro usd over a 8 year period.One system is more consistent than the other .

I agree with what you say, very few people on this site seems to view a chart in it's entirety. I personally see a proper trader as someone who can take money off virtually every single candle that appears, this may seem outrageous for the majority on this site, but that's how i personally see it.


Edit: This isn't a wind-up, i really mean this.

 

[oildaytrader]

I agree with what you say, very few people on this site seems to view a chart in it's entirety. I personally see a proper trader as someone who can take money off virtually every single candle that appears, this may seem outrageous for the majority on this site, but that's how i personally see it.


Edit: This isn't a wind-up, i really mean this.

Whatever you are on is certainly working.Give us a sniff!

Great traders always find themselves in situations where the trade goes against them.No trader will ever have a 100 % win rate, the best manual traders will probably get upto 80%.

Successful trading is about using positive expectancy.

http://tradermike.net/2004/05/trading_101_expectancy/

 

[Paul71]

Candles are a system in thier own right, so are bars. All you have to do is manage your money around them.

 

[blancspa]

Candles are a system in thier own right, so are bars. All you have to do is manage your money around them.

Inevitably I will eventually agree on that
do you trade only off candles yourself?

 

[everyonerich]

when i was surfing other forum, i come across this doc.. i assume someone is copying? lol