good example. your car one is incorrect imo.
the man knocked over on the pavement when going to pick up a car i dont think is any more unlucky than if he hadnt bought a car & would thus be continuing to walk on pavements for the rest of his life - his history & potential future circumstances have no impact on that specific event of being run over on the pavement. the driver has increased likelihood of hitting a pedestrian when driving on a pavement - whoever that unlucky person is. hmm, still not sure about this.
atilla,
are you basically saying people
incorrectly define what is luck/bad luck for a number of different reasons?: purposefully say to control others - e.g. in voodoo/religion etc; to cover for their own actions/inactions - e.g. that trade was unlucky; ignorance (which enables others to control) - the monkeys; by accident/psychology - a trader with a good system having a run of bad luck just because he hasnt tested it for long enough (this is what mark douglas talks about) etc
Yes absolutely. It distracts from identifying true nature of event, the build up and outcome keeping one in limbo. Don't get me wrong we all use it but not when it comes to probabilities that conform to expected outcomes if enough samples are taken.
on the flipside we wld also assume lucky events as instead proof of skill - in trading example suppose a newbie who has devised a system which has an expectancy of 50% and an rr 1:1 would be lucky to have 10 straight winners. he attributes this to a good system / good trading - which must happen quite a lot. he continues and the next 10 are losing trades, but he puts this down to bad luck & continues with the same system & has another run of losers blowing his account.
Yep been here and have the T-shirt
many successful entrepreneurs have failed many times before, so are they just increasing their chance of success by reducing the amount luck can play in say setting up a business by repeating the process, just as we are when trading the 40% win ratio rr 1:2 thousands of times. this is what karoshiman was alluding to. or do they also have an adept skill for business - and its the latter which is more important as it can control the part luck plays - which i think is where i was coming from. and maybe some entrepreneurs are fully aware of this - they know they have good skill, say a good product and go all in using everything they have - capital, time resources etc to improve the chances slightly more than if they were less committed. now i am just confused! it wld be a good dissertation subject - it must have already been done. as masquerade mentioned earlier though its obv v hard to quantify - luck v skill.