Nowler
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Feel free to question if you don't understand what I am saying.
I will but I don't want to be a load for you to carry. I'm sure you have better things to be doing than helping me.
... But say after some time your coin looses its magical ability. It doesn't generate the desired outcome. How do you fix the problem? Your entire methodology is dependent on its "magical" attribute.
That's my point, if/when that "magic coin" stops working then I will move to another one, there's no shortage of trading strategies. I can trade trends (which I hear happen approx. 30% of the time) jumping in on pullbacks and then scaling in further on subsequent pullbacks. If can't trade trends then I will trade ranges (which I believe happen 70% of the time) using S+R/Mean Reversion which I like to do and have done with at least enough success for me to value it as a strategy.
If I couldn't do either of those 2 for some reason then I could trade news releases. Sticking to say...NFP, CPI, Rates and whatever is big news at that stage (eg. Election news). This is why I am so reluctant to pigeonhole myself by only having 1 strategy and partly why I am so all over the place. I want to gain experience with as much as possible, holding onto and refining what I believe works and then ensuring I have at least 1 method for each market type (range/trend) and news releases.
Of course I will still need to be able to define those also ... but they are not complex (excluding the news release method). Mean reversion would be getting in on the trades on the extremes and riding to the mean, looking for past structure to inform my decisions. Trading trends/pullbacks then would be using the pullbacks to clearly define risk (SL), looking to the MACD to ensure it isn't giving me a warning (divergence). Again using past structure (S+R) to define my target.
NOTE: I don't really use the fibonacci as much as I feel I should...not really sure why.
Let's turn back to your case. How do you evaluate the success or lack of a method based on "being in and out quickly" or "in your opinion where price should go"? How do you fix such an approach should your trade outcomes do not generate the expected results? Is your "edge" derived from your opinion about price action or being nimble? It is often said, if you don't know what your edge is you probably don't have one.
I evaluate being in and out quickly by comparing it to all the rest of my trades. If I trade is taking longer than most of my other trades then I am going to notice it. I don't calculate time or write things down for the duration of my trades. If I can't tell that it's taking significantly longer than other trades, then it probably isn't. If it is then why is it? Did I place the trade outside of the active hours perhaps?..
I evaluate my opinion where price should go by the result. If it did what I expected to do then great (ie price slowing down when reaching levels of resistance as per previous structure but gaining composure and powering on through, etc). If it didn't then can I explain why? If what I reckon will happen is successful quite often then I suspect that I am onto something. If it's often not working then I need to either figure out why or change things up.
I have noticed that I, including outside of trading, will "lock in" or store my results (memory storage) of analysis of something with feelings toward it as opposed to remembering fine details. Would we class this as intuition? I feel that when we say intuition that it means hunch or some voodoo stuff like that. That's not what i'm saying. When I analyze something (at least I feel for the most part) I put decent attention into it but later on down the line when I am in a situation where I need to retrieve my analysis/information of this situation, then I can be drawn toward or repelled from it (good or bad, right or wrong, safe or danger), as opposed to remembering specific fine details about the situation/event/whatever. I guess similar to reading a study on something and not being able to remember the details but you remember the jist of it...it was conclusive or inconclusive or whatever. I'm not sure if this is to do with my dyslexia or whether it's something to do with emotional intelligence but I do it A LOT! Maybe not always but definitely a lot! This likely has something to do with the way I am not strict with writing everything down. I never was that person, though as I have said a lot, I definitely find use from writing some things down, I just haven't felt compelled to write every single thing.
The aim of my questions is to help you to build clarity around your own methodology. Do you have one that you can define in simple terms? If you cannot define it, how are you going to evaluate its performance and make adjustments for improvement?
Yes, I understand what you are doing. I appreciate your effort in teasing it out of me. It's definitely helping.
You have a general idea about fundamentals but you don't know how fundamentals are applied in trading. It is a lot more complex than what you think. I use 50 % fundamentals and 50 % technical to trade. Market pricing on prospective interest rate movements is constantly in a state of flux and is very much driven by economic data. For example, last month the market priced in above 80 % probability that the BOE will raise interest rate in November but since then that probability is closer to 60 % because of recent inflation data especially with wage growth or to be precise a lack of. It is a highly complex approach and not as you think. This topic is a big subject in itself and I will stop here.
I certainly wouldn't disagree with you saying that I merely have a general idea of fundamentals. How do I develop it further? (trial and error?) I understand that just because something is likely to happen one day (your example of the 80% prob of a rate hike), that it might be significantly less likely the days or so after due to other factors. I have also sort of noticed what I believe might be damage control in regards to economic release triggered movement?.. I'm not entirely sure of this, it's just something that caught my eye a few times. For example the Yanks make a statement that favours them on the Cable pair. The Brits would have a release of their own 30mins later and to me, it sort of seemed like it might be to control/counter the push against them as a result of the US release 30mins prior. This may be nothing more than a coincidence of course. I have not thought much about it yet... I just jotted something down about it to come back to at a later point. It just came back to me now when I was typing this...just thought i'd voice it. Perhaps you could confirm or shoot it down?
This issue is best discussed using your own trade examples where you might have conflict in using different TF. I can give you examples but that might not be meaningful to you because of your trade methodology.
I suggest you post a trade plan where we can discuss.
I have a trade I took today on the West Texas Oil, i'll post the screenshots I took and explain my process.
A win rate of 46 % with a RR of 1 is negative expectancy. Your account will bleed. It is simple maths. Just google if you are not familiar with how expectancy is calculated.
Of course.
I do have quite a lot of trades that are over 1:1 but still, id really like to raise that percentage.
How long you would hold your trade is a function of your trade plan. If you don't have a trade plan or if you are confused by multiple TF, then you effectively don't have plan.
Having a trade plan is an important component in developing a discipline trading process. If you don't have one, you will be building your trading on sand.
Generally speaking, if I take a trade in the 15min TF then I am expecting to be out within 3hrs...4hrs for sure...if i'm not then i'm not comfortable and will be figuring out what to do...to bail out or to ride it out.
If I take a trade in the 1hr window then id give it till the end of the day...if it's in the 4hr then of course i'll swing it for a few days, generally speaking.
I do about 20 trades a week, I have a trade plan for every trade I take with documented trade screens using SnagIt and archived. I have been doing this for years. Some times I slack but over time it becomes part of your daily routine.
Do you document audio also? As in, do you record you verbalising your trade process? That is actually something that would make me document my trades...if I didnt have to write it down.
Myfxbook shows that I have 330 trades since I started 5 and a half months ago. I haven't really established a limit or target for my daily/weekly trades but I have put a little thought into having a cut off point for a daily loss. Once I hit that, no more trading for the day. I haven't implemented it yet, but then again, I have been making money over the last month so haven't been forced to make an official call on it yet. Perhaps even after reaching a daily profit, the next losing trade after that, the days trading is over. Maybe just start getting up earlier and be on for the 8am London session and finish at it's close. I mainly get on around the US kickoff. These are things I need to work out also.
I'll go gather those screenshots I took of my West Texas Oil trade today so we can have a closer look at my thinking. This is an interesting trade because it was only an hour or some after I took it that a voice in my head said "MACD's are not reliable in ranging markets" which the WTO market was... The MACD was showing divergence.
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