'No indicators' revisited

Hi Sandpiper,

Thanks really. Your information has helped to fill the gap about RR estimation, which immediately proved useful today. :D

Hi Ford,

Many thanks for the detailed analysis. To be frank, I did not think that much. :p To me it was the 5 waves, and I gave it more retracement room as it was in the lunch time. Wave 2, formed between 14:45 to 15:05pm, tested but did not violate the previous resistance, so I stayed, with the stop just above the resistance. It is amazing how different people interpret charts in different ways.
 
I must admit I have trouble spoting and working out all these waves. When Skimbleshanks posted a chart and said to get out of the top of wave 5, I looked at it and visualised what I thought was the wave set, and then when Skimbleshanks posted her interpretation it was a world apart from what I was seeing. :cheesy:

Also today, what I thought was the completion of 5 waves up on the monster rally at the end of the day, dragged on and on and on .. I guess it's just not for me.. but if it works for you, why rock the boat and tamper with something that works? :D

hope you all had a good day..
 

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NQ Entries/Exits on 12/05/2004

Hi Ford, Skim,

Your posts fit nicely with what I want to discuss regarding today's NQ actions. :cheesy:

I did 2 trades. Can you please look at my entries/exits and see how I can improve?

The first trade is illustrated by the first attachment of today's 5-minute NQ chart. I went short at the 9:40 bar, highlighted by the blue line in the chart, as I saw it as the inverse of a setup Skim had mentioned : a tick above the previous resistance, then closed at or below the resistance; plus the overall trend was down.

I was a bit nervous during 10:45, 11:05 and 11:25am bars, indicated by the orange lines in the chart, as they seemed to form the staged bottom Skim had also mentioned (Sorry for the repeating reference Skim, but I do wish to thank you for having helped me so much... :) ) with equal space, 1.5 points between each of them. I did not cover as YM and ES seemed to indicate that there was yet to come for the 5 waves.

Then came the sideway movements between 12:00 to 13:35 pm. I watched them, thinking to cover if any of the bars closed above 1390. None did. Then came the 13:50pm bar, indicated by the pink line in the chart, which indicated a potential selling climax to me. This and the following bar made a long doji with high volume in the 10-minute chart, highlighted by the blue line in the 10-minute chart, and I closed the first trade and went long for my second trade.
 

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Now my 2nd trade today.

As mentioned above, I went long at the 13:50 doji, indicated by the blue line in the 10-minute chart, the second attachment. I did not exit at the point Skim and Ford mentioned, because I did not see weakness in the 10-minute chart. I set the stop just below the 14:45pm bar, but it did not pull back below that bar in the 5-minute chart.

I closed the long at the long bar at 15:40pm in the 5-minute chart. I was tempted to wait for 1420, but then remembered what sandpiper had said about RR ( cheers sandpiper for the RR analysis :) ): even if it went above 1420, it was unlikely to go much further, as indicated by the congestion around 1420 yesterday, but on the other hand it could easily pull back below 1410, so the RR was not right. I then decided to close the long at that point. This exit point is indicated by the orange line in the 10-minute chart.
 
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What I would like to ask is:

1. I feel I still need to refine my RR strategy. How may I do so?

2. Did I make some mistakes in assuming the 3 bars as staged bottoms?

Many thanks indeed.
 
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clylbw said:
What I would like to ask is:

1. I feel I still need to refine my RR strategy. How may I do so?

2. Did I make some mistakes in assuming the 3 bars as staged bottoms?

Many thanks indeed.

clylbw,

So, the meat of the two big moves of the day and you are still giving yourself a hard time? :rolleyes: (just kidding).

My two bobs worth fwiw.

1) Previous congestion at D meant that where your staged bottoms were was always going to be tricky. But if youv'e held all the way down then I assume you are playing for a break of that low from the 10th. As long as you keeping bringing your stops down to swing highs, i.e. A, then B, then C then there is just too much air below D to not hold for the potential failure.

2) You could, I suppose have got out at the volume climax around G. In R:R terms though you might as well hold on and just manage it tightly since the reward is still ????? i.e. all the air below.

3) Sagging tops, flat bottoms at D (very different from the sagging bottom/flat tops from the other day) was another chance to get in for a test of G (providing that you can get in BEFORE the breakout of the flat bottom level. (say at E). Reasonable R:R. Enter at E, Risk to F, Target G.

4) You're out at G. Can't argue with that with that volume climax.

5) F was crucial. Skim and Ford weren't the only ones that got out there (or before that in some cases.... :rolleyes: :eek: ). The bar preceding F corresponded with a push up through 1082 on the ES that had them all running for the exit The high volume on F clearly suggested a reversal and the end of the 3rd push or 5th wave (clearer on ES I grant you).

6) Once it's retraced and then pushed back up through F the reward is potentially at H (where you entered your first trade). So providing you move your stops up to J, then K, the L then the R:R stays acceptable. Obviously you realise this, but if you don't move your stops once F is breached then the R:R no longer adds up on the trade, i.e. risking to 1380 with the market at 1395 with a target of 1410-15 is non-sensical.

7) Once you get to M it gets dodgy. Your reward is potentially at N but where are you risking to? If you are risking to L then the trade doesn't add up. However, one trick is to risk to 50% of the large bar at M. Even then the trade is borderline. I reckon your assessment was right, you know people have to get out before the close and after a bar like that at M it's unlikely to reach N anyway. Only worth holding (imo) if you are going to hold overnight.
 

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Hi sandpiper,

Thank you so much. Exactly what I was looking for to add into my RR techniques. :D

Hi Skim,

You were up and early!!! ;)
 
Conflicting waves in different time-frame charts

It is my question time again... :cheesy:

While using the Elliot Waves, sometimes I get apparently conflicting results from different time-frame charts.

An example is today NQ's down move from 12:00 to 14:10 pm EST. To me, there was an extended 7-wave pattern in the 5-minute chart, highlighted by blue lines in the first attachment, while the same patten was shown as 5 waves in the 10-minute chart, illustrated by the orange lines in the second attachment. I was thinking about covering my short at the 13:40pm 5-minute bar as 5 waves seemed to have formed in the 5-minute chart, but decided against it since it was Wave 2 in the 10-minute chart and I believed there could be more to come.

I wonder whether this is the appropriate way? When there are apparent discrepancies between different time-frame charts such like today's, how should I deal with them? Thanks indeed.

BTW, do the 10:00 and 10:10 am bars with great volumes in the 10-minute chart form a certain pattern? I seem to remember them happening more than once.
 

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Lunch Time Strategy

I wonder how to deal with the lunch time break between 12:00 to 14:00 pm EST. While sideway movements are known to happen during this period, as illustrated by yesterday's NQ actions, real and big moves can also start in lunch time, like today.

Up till now I dare not walk away during the lunch time period. However, it can and does get boring and tiring sometimes when I feel like to have a break. But then I do not want to close my trade or just leave it without supervision. Are there some kinds of strategies by which I can have a break during the lunch time while still being aware of the market?

Thanks indeed.
 
clylbw said:
It is my question time again... :cheesy:

While using the Elliot Waves, sometimes I get apparently conflicting results from different time-frame charts.

> Paul has kindly authorized me to reply to this thread.

Our approach to this is, in general, to go with what is on the timeframe you are actually trading.
The Isolation Approach to Elliott Wave enables you to trade on the timeframe on which the set-up has unfolded, without interference from other timeframes (or, indeed, other EW patterns).
This means unhindered Risk/Reward evaluation for the trade, and clear trade management.
And, no indicators....!

Thanks

hornet
Tony Beckwith
MTPredictor Ltd.
 
Are we already in the summer break period???

It has been sooooooo boring for the past two days. There was a big sell-off in the Asian markets on Monday, but NQ just could not be bothered... :rolleyes:
 
clylbw said:
Are we already in the summer break period???

It has been sooooooo boring for the past two days. There was a big sell-off in the Asian markets on Monday, but NQ just could not be bothered... :rolleyes:

Indeed I was mostly watching my third monitor which has a paint drying screensaver - much more exciting than today's action (in fact it was even difficult to scalp) ;) Perhaps it is the calm before the storm - I smell a trend tomorrow, though of course I will miss it and take my usual single point.

"Up till now I dare not walk away during the lunch time period. However, it can and does get boring and tiring sometimes when I feel like to have a break. But then I do not want to close my trade or just leave it without supervision. Are there some kinds of strategies by which I can have a break during the lunch time while still being aware of the market?"

If you have a trade open are you able to leave a OCO (one cancels the other) order in place so that either you are stopped out or you take a profit with a limit order (or neither if the market does not move up or down to your predetermined stop/limit)? You can do this in TWS with a bracket order and I know deal4free do OCOs, but other bookies may not.
 
Hi Frugi,

Thanks indeed.

Am considering moving to IB-thanks goodness that there is no PDT restriction for trading Eminis-and other markets. :)
 
Hi china white,

Thanks really for the information.

I suppose a key matter in my consideration is that mine is not going to become a big account soon, e.g. I am most likely to be trading one to two contracts in the foreseeable future. In this case, would you think www.rcqexpress.com is still appropriate?

Thanks.
 
very much so. Don't expect them to be too excited of coz :) when u mention u r gonna be trading 2 contracts. Tell 'em it's gonna be 10, they will require depositing 500 x 10 = USD 5000, and then do as u please when u open the acct. Wiring funds back to your US bank acct will cost u 30 bucks, to any foreign bank acct - 40.
 
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