New Trend for Gold?

The Baptist said:
This is anecdotal and interesting and also a potential cautionary that what we are thinking about is no longer as original and certainly not contrarian, but still not becessarily the best for timing. Your mother may be better informed, she may read more broadly. I remember the dotcom bubble going for awhile, years after mass media and my dentist were talking about it.
How many people who think this in th west actually do anything about it, in terms of buying the underlying itself, its not as easily accessable to Joe Public as equity (jewelry is not intrinsic investment)

Here in the UK house prices when I arrived in 1999 where/are a national obsession and were called too expensive and, I was told not too buy, they have more than doubled in that time.

Macro trends exist particularly when relative values may have slumbered for years. Growing wealth in India and China could see substantial Gold consumption from these nations.

With all due respect, you are missing the point. Feel free to twist the logic all you want. The only pain you will feel shall be in your pocket book. Hopefully you have other investments to offset your "buy high" stance on gold. The best strategy is to buy when everyone hates an asset and hold for years, then sell when the public loves it. Not the other way around....
 
A New Market Gauge for YOU!!!

Take this thread as an example for other assets. If you decide to buy an asset that is out of favor or sell one that is in favor, post a message on a popular financial message board describing your stance. Sit back and watch the percent of people disagreeing with you. If everyone takes the opposite side (like in this thread), then it is likely a good decision (long-term). If there is a decent showing of agreement to your stance, you may want to wait for a more one-sided scenario to reap the benefits.

To this day, there is still a one-sided stance for gold (bullish). Therefore, I am still bearish, and will be so until a more neutral time for the metal....
 
It all depends on your timeframe. I have made good returns this year trading long only in precious. I will continue to play long only and I am confident I will continue to make returns. If you want to short commodities right now you are going counter-trend and counter-trend is always going to be a painful process. A look at the GSCI will show you a good ytd return on products which were considered bullish at the start of the year. I do not think going with the flow is a loss making strategy, the only time to go against it is when consensus has reached fever pitch and even then you can get burned before it comes back.
 
Show me da Munny Honey....heard she is a bit of a dish

gugaplex said:
With all due respect, you are missing the point. Feel free to twist the logic all you want. The only pain you will feel shall be in your pocket book. Hopefully you have other investments to offset your "buy high" stance on gold. The best strategy is to buy when everyone hates an asset and hold for years, then sell when the public loves it. Not the other way around....

You seem to like an antagonistic style of hand, which begining with 'With all due respect' fails to mask

No ' twisting' involved in my text, just examples provided that relate to your single fundamental supporting point made since my question.

I believe you are the one who missed the point, somethings are bubbles and some are trends.

You think Gold is a Bubble and I think that for now anyway, it is still in a position where it will trend/BO further upwards.

As for 'pocketbook' this last two months has seen a personal record for me. I have made after all costs and taxes 3 times the gross annual wage in this country in the two months. Some of this on Gold. I understand talking 'The Bucks is the American way', So how much you made shorting Gold? :devilish:

All this intended with the greatest of respect of course.... :cheesy:
 
Looking at the long term chart, it appears that gold is developing the technical characteristics of a potentially explosive long term move upwards.

With a inflation stirring ominously, and possible signs of a recession developing in the US (and therefore here), and interest rates moving upwards, gold is likely to resume its role as the main hedging instrument against global economic storms.

G.Brown's decision to sell off the nation's gold reserves when prices were at historical lows a few years ago is looking as short-sighted as his £5billion raid on pension pots.

Add to all this increased demand from the emerging economies..............gugaplex may be right.........but I suspect he is much more likely to be wrong
 
Pippppin said:
Looking at the long term chart, it appears that gold is developing the technical characteristics of a potentially explosive long term move upwards.

With a inflation stirring ominously, and possible signs of a recession developing in the US (and therefore here), and interest rates moving upwards, gold is likely to resume its role as the main hedging instrument against global economic storms.

G.Brown's decision to sell off the nation's gold reserves when prices were at historical lows a few years ago is looking as short-sighted as his £5billion raid on pension pots.

Add to all this increased demand from the emerging economies..............gugaplex may be right.........but I suspect he is much more likely to be wrong

Very Valid Post.

A great Contra-Indicator (God knows we seem to have a few who Like 'em about :cheesy: ) .
Is to buy Gold when your smarty pants Ol' School Labour chancellor has decided, that it has just become a meaningless commodity. Called the bottom perfectly.
 
Once again, I am not short gold (however I have made a decent penny doing so in the past). I am also NOT short real estate or energy, but over the intermediate/long-term these assets will likely struggle.

As far as gold is concerned, this commodity will sputter the most as it is easily liduidable and VERY speculative. A large drop in oil and gold is inevitable, and the panic selling will be unforegiving. Protect yourself by trimming your longs and buying tech and financials which will benefit from a fundamental drop in these assets.

I know it is difficult to see this scenario playing out today, but by the time it does come to fruition it may be too late.

The mere fact that it seems unlikely is why you should sell...

I am not short anything right now, only long tech and healthcare.

Check my homepage for good LONG-TERM picks, that will play-out handsomely over the next 4-5 years.
 
Can you se the Uk house prices pull back 30% in the next 3 to 4 years. I cant see how it can continue
 
i'm not sure about the price but my in laws bought into this gold frenzy back in 86-87 and have had to hold it til now to get their money back,the run up in gold preceded the 87 crash hmmmm?
 
Possible But not Likely just yet.

laptop1 said:
Can you se the Uk house prices pull back 30% in the next 3 to 4 years. I cant see how it can continue


We would require an unhealthy increase in Unemployment and Interest rates for this drop to occur.

People refuse to sell their UK houses if they feel market is unkind, ie. volume dry's up as it has before, with only small drops in price level. Unemployment may make for forced sellers then the pain has to be taken, if enough people in this position, then that level of correction might be possible.

Expect Government party of the day to be thrown out in this event and immense pressure on MPC to drop rates even if inflation in the system. People go to the polls when they are totally p*ssed off.
 
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The Baptist said:
A good week for gold, as per the chart I posted with the bottom I expected at the hammer of 24/7. See original Chart posted here:

http://www.trade2win.com/boards/showpost.php?p=266748&postcount=67

interesting to note a second hammer formed after the one I highlighted, both on above average Volume. This was further confirmation for me and allowed for some profitable trading right up and into the 630's from entry points at 619 into the low 620's. This however is all a little bit of play before the breakout I anticipate may be setting up

See revised chart below:

I currently feel we will make a relative high point not exceeding 682 ie. somewhere in the range of 654 - 682 during the coming week. The possibility exists that the 653.8 high of 27/07 was it. Although I favour slightly a higher day or two getting us into 660'/670's. Although we have just had a possible evening star for this upleg.

This 3rd rel high point once made will be relevant to me, as a final addition to long point using buy stop's if an upside BO occurs and the anticpated pattern holds. The bulk of the position being established at high volume hammer lows and susbequent confirmations of bottom if made and most recent support at 615 holds.

good luck in the new week but watch those longs for now possible weakness ahead. slightly long term keep some powder dry.

I feel we may be nearing the end of this upleg we may have final flurry but the $660 level always felt like a fair target as refferred to above. Down leg may be fairly brisk but should not go lower than $601 else pattern failure. Probably make final turn at $625 - $640 Level there was some resistance late 630's.

Then I believe if all this holds we could be in fora BO and party time!
 
The Baptist said:
I feel we may be nearing the end of this upleg we may have final flurry but the $660 level always felt like a fair target as refferred to above. Down leg may be fairly brisk but should not go lower than $601 else pattern failure. Probably make final turn at $625 - $640 Level there was some resistance late 630's.

Then I believe if all this holds we could be in fora BO and party time!

Very similar pattern for Platinum and Copper.
Expect headlines of weak Metals coming soon and prepare to ignore them and bottom feed at indicated levels catch BO (possibility if pattern sets up BO could be downside, However I feel 95% its to the up but it may be worthhaving buy and sell stop orders if you are with Guguplex and bearish).
 
Gold 'Baptist Flag 3 Point High' now made.

The Baptist said:
I feel we may be nearing the end of this upleg we may have final flurry but the $660 level always felt like a fair target as refferred to above. Down leg may be fairly brisk but should not go lower than $601 else pattern failure. Probably make final turn at $625 - $640 Level there was some resistance late 630's.

Then I believe if all this holds we could be in fora BO and party time!

Gold traded lower this morning as anticipated currently 646.1 for those who want to be short here is a small chance, I I consider it pretty dangerous as I expect once in the range described above namely $625 - $640 we may base build and set up for BO to the upside.

For those following this commentary, buy stops for an later up leg could be set at take out of high of upswing at $656.1 level. 'The Baptist Flag 3 Point high'

Took a look at upside counts off of each successive upleg on My Point and Figure charts, will post these of each upper leg shortly, Bears please look away, if this is a big continuation pattern as anticipated we will have some meaty targets....
 
Gold 2006=NASDAQ 2000....

You don't have much time to sell before the collapse in prices.

I love the debate amongst the gold bulls (especially since everyone who responds is bullish on gold-which is a sign itself).

Very simple reminder, BUY LOW and SELL HIGH.

Gold is HIGH and tech stocks are LOW.

Sell gold and buy tech stocks (click my home-page for some ideas)....
 
Ornithology for Traders: The Lesser Spotted Tit (aka the Bubble Bird)

gugaplex said:
Gold 2006=NASDAQ 2000....

You don't have much time to sell before the collapse in prices.

I love the debate amongst the gold bulls (especially since everyone who responds is bullish on gold-which is a sign itself).

Very simple reminder, BUY LOW and SELL HIGH.

Gold is HIGH and tech stocks are LOW.

Sell gold and buy tech stocks (click my home-page for some ideas)....

The Lesser Spotted Tit:

Description and proliferation.

A common bird, with dull feathers and limited ornithological interest.

Small to medium in size with nonfunctional wing foliage. Its proliferation since 2000 has been exponential, It is now found throughout both Europe and North America.

Similar to turkey's in certain aspects, they rarely make it through Christmas, and they are never witnessed in true flight, this bird skulks in the undergrowth whilst feeding on insects, ground based grommets and lice.

Vocal habits and other behavioural traits

Like the 'go away' bird it also regular squawks out in warning. It does this at any sign of movement and even entirely at random. High Pitched and Shrill it appears to have only one primary call sound and rarely seems to garner much positive response if that is the purpose.

While the North American Wild Turkey occasionally omits 'Gobble- Gobble' type sounds the Lesser Spotted Tit's expletives resonate as 'Bubble-Bubble' 'Bubble-Bubble' this response is indiscriminate to the nature of the 'disturbance'. This explecitive is repeated in an incessant and occasionally frantic fashion often without reason or provocation.

However like the Burchells Cuckoo, it seeks to, on the sly place its own eggs (Tech Stocks on its website) in the family nest for you to feed, It does this unbeknown to the lesser and harder working birds, so as to outsource the need to keep and nurture its own nest egg.

The bird appears to have highly limited vision. In fact certain controversial ornithological theorist's have suggested that its repeated cries, are more to create sound waves and echo for them to discern where in fact they are, relative to potential obstacles. In a form of low tech version of a bats sensory system.

Others feel that its repeated calls are more to re-establish its confidence so as to assert itself when in the close proximity to superior birds of prey. A final an unproven view is that it has an unexplained ulterior motive behind its rather one-dimentional call type.

As stated already The Lessor Spotted Tit makes its primary domain on the ground in low lying shrubs and bushes. This is the level of its primary food source, which also consists of: Centipedes, worms and minor rodents.

Despite its inability to fly, it appears to have extensive migratory patterns and is known to travel far and wide on foot in search of positive responses to its primary cry.

It must be stated however at this point, that no concrete proof exists that it is a carrier of 'Bird Flu', although experts generally encourage caution when facing any form of an approach. :devilish:

.....Are the bell, time for my roasted turkey and duck sandwich. Then time to soar with the Eagles, my feathered friends.

Lets maintain a 'Lesser Spotted Tit bird' alert. Keep 'em peeled Hawk eye! :cheesy:
 
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The Baptist said:
The Lesser Spotted Tit:

Description and proliferation.

A common bird, with dull feathers and limited ornithological interest.

Small to medium in size with nonfunctional wing foliage. Its proliferation since 2000 has been exponential, It is now found throughout both Europe and North America.

Similar to turkey's in certain aspects, they rarely make it through Christmas, and they are never witnessed in true flight, this bird skulks in the undergrowth whilst feeding on insects, ground based grommets and lice.

Vocal habits and other behavioural traits

Like the 'go away' bird it also regular squawks out in warning. It does this at any sign of movement and even entirely at random. High Pitched and Shrill it appears to have only one primary call sound and rarely seems to garner much positive response if that is the purpose.

While the North American Wild Turkey occasionally omits 'Gobble- Gobble' type sounds the Lesser Spotted Tit's expletives resonate as 'Bubble-Bubble' 'Bubble-Bubble' this response is indiscriminate to the nature of the 'disturbance'. This explecitive is repeated in an incessant and occasionally frantic fashion often without reason or provocation.

However like the Burchells Cuckoo, it seeks to, on the sly place its own eggs (Tech Stocks on its website) in the family nest for you to feed, It does this unbeknown to the lesser and harder working birds, so as to outsource the need to keep and nurture its own nest egg.

The bird appears to have highly limited vision. In fact certain controversial ornithological theorist's have suggested that its repeated cries, are more to create sound waves and echo for them to discern where in fact they are, relative to potential obstacles. In a form of low tech version of a bats sensory system.

Others feel that its repeated calls are more to re-establish its confidence so as to assert itself when in the close proximity to superior birds of prey. A final an unproven view is that it has an unexplained ulterior motive behind its rather one-dimentional call type.

As stated already The Lessor Spotted Tit makes its primary domain on the ground in low lying shrubs and bushes. This is the level of its primary food source, which also consists of: Centipedes, worms and minor rodents.

Despite its inability to fly, it appears to have extensive migratory patterns and is known to travel far and wide on foot in search of positive responses to its primary cry.

It must be stated however at this point, that no concrete proof exists that it is a carrier of 'Bird Flu', although experts generally encourage caution when facing any form of an approach. :devilish:

.....Are the bell, time for my roasted turkey and duck sandwich. Then time to soar with the Eagles, my feathered friends.

Lets maintain a 'Lesser Spotted Tit bird' alert. Keep 'em peeled Hawk eye! :cheesy:

I must say, a very creative post. The thing that I find the most hilarious is the wasted time spent for such an expose. I attempt to keep my posts/replies short and to the point because of three reasons:

1) Members likely do not want to read an extraordinarily long post (unless they have nothing
better to do).

2) Asset prices already reflect (for the most part) all of their future prospects and estimates.

3) I have better things to do with my time than to submit posts that are significantly lengthy and
require "creative' analogies.

You see, I follow the common mantra of buying low and selling high. I loved gold in 2001 when it was trading at $250/oz (not many gold bulls then), today it is nearly 3x's as high (and the gold bulls are everywhere you look).

My advice to you, just keep on hyping gold and giving your "technical analysis", and I will keep watching the prices fall.

The funny thing is, when gold fell from $720 (as I predicted at the start of this thread) to $540, you were no where to be found after your nifty predictions. Now that there is a weak rebound for the metal, you are sounding the horn as if you are some kind of genius.

You keep blowing, I'll keep laughing at the price decline that will pressure gold over the next 3-4 years....
 
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For a good exit point or short opportunity in gold, wait for the FED meeting (8/8) as they will either pause or raise a quarter point and infer a future pause. This will likely give a healthy boost to gold prices. Perhaps the best time to trim your holdings or short...

I'm a lesser spotted tit bird, so who cares what I have to say. Wouldn't you rather hear opinions from people that agree whole-heartedly with you so you can keep your head in the sand?
 
we have all heard of a tit,wehave all seen the insulting rebuttal, we have all seen the braggart, can we see the humble ,loveable,account enhancer,that we all come to this site hoping to find,in his or her abscence , between threads, can you guys just go pee behind the garage and not mention it, i'm tired of hereing who's got the biggest bladder when in reality ,no one on this site cares to come here for reasons other thanself improvement, not to witness the lowest form of self flattery.putting down the other guy , please get your mind and ego up ,so as to enhance the communitys that you touch and influence,"forgive me my trespasses as i forgive those who trespass against me,just trade,sometimes you win ,sometimes you lose,is that a newsflash to anyone on this site,check your ego at the door,THERE IS NO EXCUSE FOR BAD MANORS, there are no problems only solutions , ......... and on and on...please... i'm tired of notices on email to see response to this thread.... and it's the winer family ...wake up .... you are not contributing.... your bringing the site down...i hope this response peeves you ... life is ajourney and setbacks are necessary for learning and growth...help us all grow as traders.. TRADE TO WIN not wine
 
US StagFlation and Gold?

gugaplex said:
Now that there is a weak rebound for the metal, you are sounding the horn as if you are some kind of genius.

'Genius' , you are far too kind, 'No bird brain' would have sufficed...(especially a horn bill, they are truly thick)

...Anyway back to Gold.

You seem to think that there is a strong likelihood for a fed Increase. I have no view one way or another on this, but the press over here are calling it as too tight to call, with a fair portion going for the first peg of the rate, ie non-increase and others an increase.

From all reports, the stats seem to point to a bit of 'Stagflation' lower growth accompanied by higher inflation, in your country ie. 70's stuff.

This as someone who lays claim to be a fundamentalist, with a fair amount of scorn for chartist's, is hardly an ideal set of circumstances for paper based assets, ie Tech stocks (or any stocks for that matter and many other paper based assets).

What do you make of the stats for low growth and inflation, is it a blip or a possible recurring theme and if not a once off? how do you see the possibility of Stagflation and its effects on your current predictions, which seem to have stretched out to include the next 3 or 4 years, as well as the current year under review?

TB
 
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