cool
me too, btw wow the movements atm in the markets! Just too profit shorts indices
me too, btw wow the movements atm in the markets! Just too profit shorts indices
me too, btw wow the movements atm in the markets! Just too profit shorts indices
Yep, I am watching it too as we speak. Let's see if an opportunity arises for my system.
Long NASDAQ-100
Net P/L -25.55 points
Amount: 1 contract
Opening Rate 5379.77
Close Rate 5354.22
Open time 3/21/2017 5:07 PM
Close Time 3/21/2017 5:52 PM
Stop loss: fixed stop blow lowest low
Entry and exit on a 5m(!) chart
Reason of closure: SL got hit.
Comments
Followed the system. Huuuuuge downmove, then a upmove nicely visible on the 5m chart indeed. But I decided to follow my system to the letter, so I switched to the 1m view and saw a retracement of that upmove initially but then it continued going up beating the previous level. Not really visible on the 5m chart, but it was visible on the 1m chart so I opened the trade.
Knowing well that it probably is a bad trade. I have done this before and afterwards made the suggestion to look at larger timeframe charts to not include the "noise". With moves this big you have to put everything else in a bigger perspective as well. On the 5m chart I wouldn't have been allowed to take a postion and rightfully so because it declined all the way to 5315 somewhere. So having another confirmation of this and it being logical I will include this in my next system.
Maybe it's time to incorporate the obvious things like this already. Else I will have to change too many things at once and that's not good either. I can make a comparison of the sytem's performance having these trades included and one where I did not include them acting as if the rule was already in place. This is a restrictive rule cause if something is visible on the 5m chart it will also be visible on the 1m chart so I can safely make the comparison.
Net P/L -25.55 points
Amount: 1 contract
Opening Rate 5379.77
Close Rate 5354.22
Open time 3/21/2017 5:07 PM
Close Time 3/21/2017 5:52 PM
Stop loss: fixed stop blow lowest low
Entry and exit on a 5m(!) chart
Reason of closure: SL got hit.
Comments
Followed the system. Huuuuuge downmove, then a upmove nicely visible on the 5m chart indeed. But I decided to follow my system to the letter, so I switched to the 1m view and saw a retracement of that upmove initially but then it continued going up beating the previous level. Not really visible on the 5m chart, but it was visible on the 1m chart so I opened the trade.
Knowing well that it probably is a bad trade. I have done this before and afterwards made the suggestion to look at larger timeframe charts to not include the "noise". With moves this big you have to put everything else in a bigger perspective as well. On the 5m chart I wouldn't have been allowed to take a postion and rightfully so because it declined all the way to 5315 somewhere. So having another confirmation of this and it being logical I will include this in my next system.
Maybe it's time to incorporate the obvious things like this already. Else I will have to change too many things at once and that's not good either. I can make a comparison of the sytem's performance having these trades included and one where I did not include them acting as if the rule was already in place. This is a restrictive rule cause if something is visible on the 5m chart it will also be visible on the 1m chart so I can safely make the comparison.
Well it went short alright, could go lower but with one last up swing maybe longterm top is there.
Check for more trading tools trademetlinda.nl
(Trading Academy)
Check for more trading tools trademetlinda.nl
(Trading Academy)
Well it went short alright, could go lower but with one last up swing maybe longterm top is there.
Check for more trading tools trademetlinda.nl
(Trading Academy)
Yes, my setup got triggered and I did go short. I will post the trade soon.
Short NASDAQ-100
Net P/L +6.72 points
Amount: 1 contract
Opening Rate 5388.72
Close Rate 5382.00
Open time 3/24/2017 4:17 PM
Close Time 3/21/2017 5:14 PM
Stop loss: fixed stop blow lowest low
Entry and exit on a 5m(!) chart
Reason of closure: trailing SL got hit.
Comments
Followed the system. Was a bit late documenting this one so it's a 5m chart again. So the entry criteria aren't very visible on it. Trade started going bad but SL did not get hit in the end and then price dropped. At 5384.48 there was an S&R level defined so a trailing SL was put in place there. Which was triggered in the next few minutes.
Without a trailing SL this trade would have made A LOT more profit. But a lot more trades would fail as well. I think it's better psychologically to have a slightly higher win rate and take good profits but not huge regularly (and once in a while a huge profit too) then to have most your trades fail and solely relying on these huge profit trades.
Net P/L +6.72 points
Amount: 1 contract
Opening Rate 5388.72
Close Rate 5382.00
Open time 3/24/2017 4:17 PM
Close Time 3/21/2017 5:14 PM
Stop loss: fixed stop blow lowest low
Entry and exit on a 5m(!) chart
Reason of closure: trailing SL got hit.
Comments
Followed the system. Was a bit late documenting this one so it's a 5m chart again. So the entry criteria aren't very visible on it. Trade started going bad but SL did not get hit in the end and then price dropped. At 5384.48 there was an S&R level defined so a trailing SL was put in place there. Which was triggered in the next few minutes.
Without a trailing SL this trade would have made A LOT more profit. But a lot more trades would fail as well. I think it's better psychologically to have a slightly higher win rate and take good profits but not huge regularly (and once in a while a huge profit too) then to have most your trades fail and solely relying on these huge profit trades.
Not a trade but just an interesting observation:
Big move down happened so was waiting for my setup to trigger. It got triggered near the bottom of the long green bar but I didn't watch the chart for like 30 seconds and missed most of the move. Maybe I wasn't paying that much attention either because the downmove was so weak, only one candle (1m) of it going down... and usually I look for longer timeframe downmoves, then again, it's not the timeframe that matters but the price... or is it?
Either way, apart from my system, I had a strong feeling that price would move up. When price goes up but stops and then hesitates and failes to drop (at the 5370.52 level) it is likely to go up again. I have read this somewhere before and I have seen this exact setup happen a couple of times too. Taking that knowledge in account I could have entered long anywhere on that blue line.
Big move down happened so was waiting for my setup to trigger. It got triggered near the bottom of the long green bar but I didn't watch the chart for like 30 seconds and missed most of the move. Maybe I wasn't paying that much attention either because the downmove was so weak, only one candle (1m) of it going down... and usually I look for longer timeframe downmoves, then again, it's not the timeframe that matters but the price... or is it?
Either way, apart from my system, I had a strong feeling that price would move up. When price goes up but stops and then hesitates and failes to drop (at the 5370.52 level) it is likely to go up again. I have read this somewhere before and I have seen this exact setup happen a couple of times too. Taking that knowledge in account I could have entered long anywhere on that blue line.
Short NASDAQ-100
Net P/L -7.57 points
Amount: 1 contract
Opening Rate 5437.28
Close Rate 5444.85
Open time 3/30/2017 4:26 PM
Close Time 3/30/2017 4:35 PM
Stop loss: fixed stop above highest high
Entry and exit on a 1m chart
Reason of closure: SL got hit.
Comments
Followed the system. Again, saw the same thing forming as yesterdays interesting observation so I drew a blue line again. Again price went up afterwards so again a confirmation of that.
My entry was a bit late, I should have entered where the red line crosses the candles before the green arrow. Not because of that but because price makes a lower low after the big up move. I didn't like the trade but I was just mechanically following the system as it is now.
I didn't like it because the move up was "cut in half" by the hesitation as indicated by the blue line. Also, more in hindsight but I drew the orange line which could possibly be an S&R level too. There was a daily level like that on 16-03-2017 but you can't possibly start taking all that into account. Well, you can, but it's probably not a good idea.
It's clear this system still has it's flaws and that it needs to be adapted anyway. I will come up with an altered version for the month April, seems like a good time to start with a new one.
Net P/L -7.57 points
Amount: 1 contract
Opening Rate 5437.28
Close Rate 5444.85
Open time 3/30/2017 4:26 PM
Close Time 3/30/2017 4:35 PM
Stop loss: fixed stop above highest high
Entry and exit on a 1m chart
Reason of closure: SL got hit.
Comments
Followed the system. Again, saw the same thing forming as yesterdays interesting observation so I drew a blue line again. Again price went up afterwards so again a confirmation of that.
My entry was a bit late, I should have entered where the red line crosses the candles before the green arrow. Not because of that but because price makes a lower low after the big up move. I didn't like the trade but I was just mechanically following the system as it is now.
I didn't like it because the move up was "cut in half" by the hesitation as indicated by the blue line. Also, more in hindsight but I drew the orange line which could possibly be an S&R level too. There was a daily level like that on 16-03-2017 but you can't possibly start taking all that into account. Well, you can, but it's probably not a good idea.
It's clear this system still has it's flaws and that it needs to be adapted anyway. I will come up with an altered version for the month April, seems like a good time to start with a new one.
Last trade of this version of the system. Next up the performance and the analysis of how to improve things.
Short NASDAQ-100
Net P/L +0.5 points
Amount: 1 contract
Opening Rate 5444.15
Close Rate 5443.6
Open time 4/3/2017 4:06 PM
Close Time 4/3/2017 4:09 PM
Stop loss: fixed stop above highest high, later trailig SL
Entry and exit on a 1m chart
Reason of closure: trailing SL got hit.
Comments
Followed the system. Entry was right. Trade went my way. However the 5440.00 level was a daily AND monthly level so I had to put my trailing SL there. Which got me taken out at the red arrow. You could say IF only I had put a wider trailing SL, the profit would have been much bigger. But no matter what your system is you're always going to have trades like this that do not work out only due to a tiny thing.
It is very tempting to change your system to make that trade fall within your vairables but that would only make you move your border values around continuously, and you would never know if your system is profitable or not cause you keep changing it. Discipline is important in these cases.
Short NASDAQ-100
Net P/L +0.5 points
Amount: 1 contract
Opening Rate 5444.15
Close Rate 5443.6
Open time 4/3/2017 4:06 PM
Close Time 4/3/2017 4:09 PM
Stop loss: fixed stop above highest high, later trailig SL
Entry and exit on a 1m chart
Reason of closure: trailing SL got hit.
Comments
Followed the system. Entry was right. Trade went my way. However the 5440.00 level was a daily AND monthly level so I had to put my trailing SL there. Which got me taken out at the red arrow. You could say IF only I had put a wider trailing SL, the profit would have been much bigger. But no matter what your system is you're always going to have trades like this that do not work out only due to a tiny thing.
It is very tempting to change your system to make that trade fall within your vairables but that would only make you move your border values around continuously, and you would never know if your system is profitable or not cause you keep changing it. Discipline is important in these cases.
Performance of the system
I am using the average profitability per trade criteria which is:
Average Profitability Per Trade = (Probability of Win x Average Win) - (Probability of Loss x Average Loss)
These are my numbers
probability of a win = 56,5% = 0.565
probability of a loss = 43,5% = 0.435
average winning trade makes 5.95 points
average losing trade loses 9.299 points
(0.565 x 5.95) – (0.435 x 9.299) = -0.683315 points
Losing system in it's current form. However there were two trades that were VERY big losers. Both losers account for 45% of the total amount lost. I have a few idea of new rules that would prevent them. But more in detail analysis of my trading journal is needed for that. I attached an excel sheet with a bit more details.
Also, if I don't change the entry criteria but only tweak the exit criteria I can let my new system loose on the same data and see what the results would have been. I think that would be the best approach so far.
This is also based on 23 trades. A bit on the low side, but it is clear that something needs to be done about those two big losers else they will occur again for sure. I am thinking of a more narrow SL. That's something I can test with the data I have available. If turns out profitable, why not continue to demo test that? If confirmed, start with real money but small amounts.........
We will see!
I am using the average profitability per trade criteria which is:
Average Profitability Per Trade = (Probability of Win x Average Win) - (Probability of Loss x Average Loss)
These are my numbers
probability of a win = 56,5% = 0.565
probability of a loss = 43,5% = 0.435
average winning trade makes 5.95 points
average losing trade loses 9.299 points
(0.565 x 5.95) – (0.435 x 9.299) = -0.683315 points
Losing system in it's current form. However there were two trades that were VERY big losers. Both losers account for 45% of the total amount lost. I have a few idea of new rules that would prevent them. But more in detail analysis of my trading journal is needed for that. I attached an excel sheet with a bit more details.
Also, if I don't change the entry criteria but only tweak the exit criteria I can let my new system loose on the same data and see what the results would have been. I think that would be the best approach so far.
This is also based on 23 trades. A bit on the low side, but it is clear that something needs to be done about those two big losers else they will occur again for sure. I am thinking of a more narrow SL. That's something I can test with the data I have available. If turns out profitable, why not continue to demo test that? If confirmed, start with real money but small amounts.........
We will see!
