Right, here is the analysis:
Things to check for in my logged trades:
1- check if last trade is conform trades I took during testing (apart from humongous move)
2- check what the biggest moves were during test phase
3- look at test trades from begin of June till begin of July and see if you find anything odd
Conclusions
1) MAR 22, 2017, 4:47PM --> similar to last trade and also loser
1)JUN 1, 2017, 7:06AM --> similar to last trade but winner
1) SEP 27, 2017, 7:15PM --> similar to last trade but winner
2) big move (80) but loser MAR 22, 2017, 4:47PM (not under current system unless taken a trade like last trade
2) big move (65) and winner JUN 1, 2017, 7:06AM
3) Also big moves (but not quite as big as now) but recovered better of the instances I recorded. Didn't take that many trades that month. (Due to taking cleaner trades?)
So, last trade as mentioned in earlier post for point #1 I can't really say it's a bad trade but it didn't have the cleanest setup either.
#2: There were big moves during test phase but they weren't nearly as big or as frequent as the latest week and a half.
#3: There were a few big moves but again not as big as the last week and a half and they seemed to recover better (at least the instances I recorded when I took a position)
The overal conclusion is that this is an anomaly situation. At least for my system. This probably occurs once every year on average in the market? That's just a wild guess but "easy" to check out. To take this into account in the future I will adapt my system that I am not to trade if a move is bigger than 65 points.
This situation is similar to the first time I started trading for real money. Back then my testing phase was much shorter (like 2-3 months) and I didn't have a real system. I just took trades that seemed to make sense. I went from 20k virtual money to 60kish virtual money. Pretty good. However, after looking at that 2-3 month testing phase it was very clear to see that the market was going up very steadily (and I only went long during my testing). And of course right when I started with real money the market started going down for a while which resulted in me losing money of course
Same thing happened now. I take my system live and conditions change. I lost a lot less money now and I am still testing now, that's the difference. That's why you start trading with small amounts. Also, back then my testing phase was the anomaly while now this period is the anomaly.
Next post will be one of my system updated with the 65point +move rule.