My journey to long term consistency

[DrSafari]

Short NASDAQ-100

Net P/L +6.73 points

Amount 1 Contracts

Opening Rate 4958.18
Close Rate 4951.45

Open Time 12/20/2016 3:54 PM
Close Time 12/20/2016 4:06 PM

Stop loss: fixed stop loss 0.25 points above highest high which was around 4963.10

Entry and exit on a 1m chart




Reason of closure: Because price was going near the daily resistence level I tightened SL and it got hit

Comments
Okay it was not yet 1p removed from the 4947.00 level but as I mentioned on my chart the level seemed to be lying a bit higher so whenever I noticed that I tightened my stop loss fast and it was necessary so it seemed. This is a trade according to the book! I am also proud of myself I did not get into the temptation to put a trailing SL or tighten it after I had around 4 points of profit. Price went up and shook out a lot of people but then continued to go down towards the daily resistence. I only moved my stop when price was going near the latter.

Nice.

 

[Gwenstacy]

I Will invest like Warren Buffett strong and long term.

 

[DrSafari]

I Will invest like Warren Buffett strong and long term.

Thank you for that lovely piece of information!

 

[DrSafari]

Long NASDAQ-100

Net P/L -7.12 points

Amount 1 Contracts

Opening Rate 4952.31
Close Rate 4945.19

Open Time 12/21/2016 4:23 PM
Close Time 12/21/2016 4:47 PM

Stop loss: fixed stop not below the lowest low because it was a bit wide. Not according to the system though

Entry and exit on a 5m chart




Reason of closure: Stop loss got hit.

Comments
There was at least an 8 point move although it fits that criteria barely. There was also a retracement of atleast 1.5 point and seemed to have bounced off the 4950.00 level so those are good reasons to enter this trade. Reasons not to take the trade are 1) between the 4950.00 and 4959.00 levels was another level defined. 2) I would have to put my SL very wide to take it.

Other than that it's a legitimate loser and losers will happen, however it's too big of a loss so it's best to avoid trades like this because of 2 but also because of 1. I did not include that into my trading plan though. Let's get some more numbers in using this system and then draw conclusions instead of revising the system every other trade. Cause that way you are just running around like a chicken without head trying to mold your system to always be in line with the market... that of course it impossible and will most likely result in your system always being slightly out of line with the market... or too many rules in your system so you can't find trades anymore that fit the criteria

 

[DrSafari]

Preparation 22-12-2016

Price is barely moving. And it is a small chance once US market opens that price will be confined by these weak daily levels. So I included a chart with a little more intermediary levels between the day and week intervals.

 

[Splitlink]

Have a Merry Christmas and A Happy New Year.

I have commenced reading your posts because, it seems to me, you have started to follow the Nasdaq Index and that wasn't the case before. Perhaps I am wrong on that point, anyway, I note your parameters, above and will watch them this afternoon. When do you anticipate a little more action? I suggest not until the New Year.

Nasdaq and FTSE are the only two I follow, these days.

 

[DrSafari]

Have a Merry Christmas and A Happy New Year.

I have commenced reading your posts because, it seems to me, you have started to follow the Nasdaq Index and that wasn't the case before. Perhaps I am wrong on that point, anyway, I note your parameters, above and will watch them this afternoon. When do you anticipate a little more action? I suggest not until the New Year.

Nasdaq and FTSE are the only two I follow, these days.

No, you are right I have only just recently started to follow the Nasdaq. Usually after US market opens there is more action but yeah the week between christmas and new year it will be calm probably. Which is not bad because I won't be able to trade anyway.

Merry Christmas and a happy New year to you too!

 

[DrSafari]

After the end of year break it's time to get back to business.

Here are new monthly, weekly and yesterdays daily preparations. No trade yet.

Monthly preparation


Weekly preparation


Preperation 04-01-2017

 

[DrSafari]

Preperation 05-01-2017



Range above is barely 8.00 points so not tradable atm because I have to wait for 1.5 point reversal at least and then the range is too narrow.

 

[DrSafari]

Virtual long at 16:48 around 4947.50 stop loss at 4945.95

 

[DrSafari]

Virtual close at 17:02 at 54:00

Profit = +2.50 points

Chart is a 1m chart


Comments
Crude virtual trade. System was triggered but I was too late to act upon it because I am at work. This is what I would have done according to the system though.

 

[DrSafari]

Preparation 06-01-2017

 

[DrSafari]

Short NASDAQ-100

Net P/L +3.49 points

Amount 1 Contracts

Opening Rate 4978.18
Close Rate 4974.69

Open Time 1/6/2017 4:06 PM
Close Time 1/6/2017 4:34 PM

Stop loss: fixed stop above the highest high at the orange line, like the system dictates

Entry and exit on a 1m chart




Reason of closure: Price began to come near the new daily resistance level so I put in a "tight" trailing SL. Not THAT tight in practice because broker platform did not allow it.

Comments
Trade according to the system, winning. Okay maybe I put the tight SL too soon because system says 1p... but this of course depends on volatility and I think this was appropriate for this trade, may have to review that part but for now I will leave it as is.

*Edit: I see now that new daily resistance level after the open isnt correct, it was just a new level after I had made my preparation for the day

 

[DrSafari]

Repost of the plan so I keep it fresh in my mind


The New Trading System (to be tested)

1) Define S&R levels up front monthly, weekly and daily
2) Look for big moves 8 points or more (over the course of maximum 4 hours), that is either within a Range (between S and R levels) or an outbreak from them
3) watch where it reverses after a higher high and after 1.50 in opposite direction, take position in direction of trend
4) put stop loss at 0.25 above or below highest high or lowest low (risking 1.75)
5) when nearing resistance (1p distance) or 3R profit put in a tight (tightest possible) trailing SL.

6) avoid trading during US market open for now. Must a trade drag on long and would still be open during US market open, put tight trailings SL. Or close in case left over profit would be 0 or less.

 

[DrSafari]

Preparation 09-01-2017


Preparation Weekly

No real levels here, only an apparent uptrend

 

[DrSafari]

Nothing to trade according to system on 09-01-2017


Preparation 10-01-2017

 

[DrSafari]

Short NASDAQ-100

Net P/L -4.11 points

Amount 1 Contracts

Opening Rate 5032.69
Close Rate 5036.8

Open Time 1/10/2017 5:07 PM
Close Time 1/10/2017 5:10 PM

Stop loss: fixed stop above the highest high

Entry and exit on a 5m chart



Reason of closure: fixed Stop loss hit

Comments
Trade according to the system but a loser. Should have waited longer to go in because while it did go down it was not really convincing. I did act according to the system and it did go down by more than 1.5 point so that is why I went in. All of this is not very clear on this 5m chart(1m chart was not available anymore at time of posting) How can I prevent a scenario like this? Easy make the criteria for entering more than 1.5 point, in that case I should also look for bigger moves than at least 8 points.* However, I am not making the same mistake of continuously changing my system again and running around in circles. I will only change it when I see a clear pattern in the results. So for now, steady as she goes.

(*) OORRRR as I mentioned so often already make it relative to the move, probably makes more sense. But requires more concentration watching the chart

 

[DrSafari]

Preparation 11-01-2017

 

[DrSafari]

Short NASDAQ-100

Net P/L + 3.37 points

Amount 1 Contracts

Opening Rate 5041.06
Close Rate 5037.69

Open Time 1/11/2017 4:45 PM
Close Time 1/11/2017 4:54 PM

Stop loss: fixed stop above the highest high

Entry and exit on a 1m chart



Reason of closure: moved stop loss to tightest trailing SL possible near the 5035 level and that got hit.

Comments
Was watching the chart and suddenly there was a big drop left to the green arrow. System is triggered but I found it a bit too late to enter that trade cause the 5035 level was so closeby so I decided to wait for a retracement, which happened a few minutes later. After the retracement seemed to have stopped I entered short. Still a trade according to the system. It does not mention retracements but it does not forbid it either. Eventual price was near the 5035 level so I put in a trailing SL instead of a fixed stop loss which got hit a few minutes later.

Cons of putting the trailing SL and not exiting right away are that I lose about 2 points of profit.
Pros are that if price happens to blast through the 5035 level I can potentially make an enormous profit. If I can trade like this AND once in a forthnight benefit from really big profits I have myself a good strategy I reckon.

But once again I can clearly see S&R levels is a great tool, price bounced off of it again, it does so again and again and again and again.

 

[DrSafari]

Long NASDAQ-100

Net P/L -6.65 points

Amount 1 Contracts

Opening Rate 4999.06
Close Rate 4992.41

Open Time 1/12/2017 4:56 PM
Close Time 1/12/2017 5:00 PM

Stop loss: fixed stop below the lowest low

Entry and exit on a 1m chart



Reason of closure: fixed stop loss got hit

Comments
I forgot to post the preparation but I added the levels on the result chart. Huuuge move downwards, then seemed to have stabilized so I put the stop loss a bit below the lowest low. Price was moving down a bit and normally I have to wait for it to go up to enter but I had to leave work so it was either taking the trade now or not taking it at all. As I was putting my stop loss I thought to myself, this SL is too tight for such a big move. Price did not go below previous low but there is no guarantee that price won't go under it for a few points as a retracement. And, it did exactly that. These situations are the potential big gain situations I talked about previous posts... of course you have to actually win them and not lose then. Had I waited or put a less tight (relative to the move SL) this would have been a big profit.

It was sensible that price would recover to original level and with my current stop loss I had then a risk:reward ratio of 1/3.... In this system I usually barely have 1/2 so why now go for 1/3 ? Could have taken more risk 1/2 and turned this into an actual winner.

Nevertheless, I did good because I followed the system. Seems like more and more things are pointing in the direction of putting a relative SL to the move. Yet, not just changing the system yet, let's get some more data in so I can properly determine what would be a good ratio.