My journey to long term consistency

[DrSafari]

Short S&P500

Net P/L -1.36 points

Amount 1 Contracts

Opening Rate 2242.94
Close Rate 2244.3

Open Time 12/9/2016 2:44 PM
Close Time 12/9/2016 2:47 PM

Stop loss: trailing stop of 1.00 point

Entry and exit 5m chart (dont have the 1m chart data anymore)





Reason of closure: trailing stop loss got hit


Comments
My thoughts when taking the trade: Either there was a downtrend and a retracement just ended en was going down again (this was more obivious on the 1m chart) if not there was still a good chance that price remained within the range so justifiying a short.However having drawn the chart now I see price never broke the level. IF I take a short I should atleast wait until price has crossed the in this case 2242.94 level. I opened ON that level, I should have opened lower than that, of course in this case wouldnt have been possible thus saving me from a losing trade.

It always keeps amazing me how much you learn from documenting your trade while just after you are out of it you don't think there will be much value in documenting it.

 

[DrSafari]

Short S&P500

Net P/L -1.48 points

Amount 1 Contracts

Opening Rate 2246.8
Close Rate 2245.32

Open Time 12/9/2016 3:59 PM
Close Time 12/9/2016 4:01 PM

Stop loss: trailing stop of 1.00 point

Entry and exit 5m chart (dont have the 1m chart data anymore)





Reason of closure: trailing stop loss got hit


Comments
There was a new resistence level formed at 2244.94 which then became support. So price made a new high and then started dropping but then halted and started going up again (again not clear on this 5m chart, I trade on the 1m charts now). This was a good signal to go long so I did. The idea was right it seems but I did not take into account the higher than usual volatility and got taken out by it. Then again, price dropped to almost the earlier support level of 2242.94 and one could argue that if your stop is below that level it is waaaay to wide because your trade did clearly not work if price managed to get there. but then the volatility.... Not easy

 

[DrSafari]

Long S&P500

Net P/L -0.61 points

Amount 1 Contracts

Opening Rate 2245.43
Close Rate 2244.82

Open Time 12/9/2016 4:03 PM
Close Time 12/9/2016 4:06 PM

Stop loss: trailing stop of 1.00 point

Entry and exit 1m chart




Reason of closure: trailing stop loss got hit


Comments
Legit trade idea although I should have waited a bit longer to go in. As soon as the down movement ended I went in, instead of waiting a bit too see what would happen. Price moved sideways but got taken out due to volatility again. Then it went up which could have left me with a modest profit but alas. Anyway I was probably also overtrading at the time, instead of a clear mental picture and calmness it was the opposite so not a good mental state to be in when trading.

 

[DrSafari]

Preparation week

Did not find any weekly S&R levels, only a trend marked in black


Preparation 12-12-2016

 

[DrSafari]

Short S&P500

Net P/L -1.74 points

Amount 1 Contracts

Opening Rate 2255.82
Close Rate 2257.56

Open Time 12/12/2016 3:52 PM
Close Time 12/12/2016 3:59 PM

Stop loss: trailing stop of ~1.50 point

Entry and exit 1m chart




Reason of closure: trailing stop loss got hit


Comments
2255.70 level got breached but only slightly and prive moved sideways for a while. When I entered I thought price was going down but in fact it was only moving sideways. I waited already longer than previous trades but still not long enough it seems, I guess I am afraid to miss most of the move... If I had waited I saw price would rally up again and then reverse, then a retracement, and THAT is where I should have entered short (annotated by the orange dot) . This looks a lot like my previous setup I was trading while now I am doing all kinds of trades but based on S&R levels of course. Hmmmm

 

[DrSafari]

Preparation 13-12-2016

On chart with daily span only a trend is visible



Preparation 30 min chart over a period of 2 days and a bit


Could not find any S&R for the day but price crossed yesterday's resistance level 2255.70 and is close to the yesterdays all time high.

 

[DrSafari]

Short S&P500

Net P/L -1.12 points

Amount 1 Contracts

Opening Rate 2257.94
Close Rate 2259.06

Open Time 12/13/2016 2:27 PM
Close Time 12/13/2016 3:00 PM

Stop loss: trailing stop of ~1.00 point

Entry and exit 1m chart

In the preperation I mistyped. It should be 2257.44 instead of 2255.44 obviously.



Reason of closure: trailing stop loss got hit


Comments
Bad trade. I thought price had reached the 2257.44 resistance and because it would not move further I took a short... instead of waiting for price to move. The range was too narrow here anyways.... also going over a big part of my trades using S&R I have come to an insight.... which I will post after I posted the results of today. Oh yes... I thought it was a retracement of the downtrend... everytime I seem to include that in my head I make bad trades, better not worry too much yet about the entry point.

 

[DrSafari]

Short S&P500

Net P/L +1.27 points

Amount 1 Contracts

Opening Rate 2264.57
Close Rate 2263.3

Open Time 12/13/2016 3:56 PM
Close Time 12/13/2016 4:09 PM

Stop loss: first a fixed stop but then changed to trailing but when I do that it seems to stop me out too fast.

Entry and exit 1m chart





Reason of closure: trailing stop loss got hit


Comments
Right after I had that insight I looked at the current S&P chart to see if I could see my insight and as if it was meant to be I could immediately act upon it, and it did result in a profitable trade

 

[DrSafari]

Short S&P500

Net P/L +0.51 points

Amount 1 Contracts

Opening Rate 2263.94
Close Rate 2263.43

Open Time 12/13/2016 4:13 PM
Close Time 12/13/2016 4:20 PM

Stop loss: trailing around 1.50 point I think

Entry and exit 1m chart



Reason of closure: trailing stop loss got hit


Comments
Since last trade I got stopped out too fast for my liking I took another short (price retraced a bit anyway) resulting in another modest win. But yet AGAIN I got stopped out too fast. I think with moves this big I should not put my trailing SL so narrow... and this is also part of my new insight, but seperate post for this!

 

[DrSafari]

My insight

Okay so I went over my trades and I noticed I did best only when I traded sporadically. Then I remembered the good advice of being selective of your trades and the mistake most make is to overtrade, you have to have patience and wait for good opportunities to occur.

Then I noticed the trades that most often resulted in a profit were trades after a big move in price. This usually but not always involves a big price difference in support and resistance... or sometimes an okay difference but then a spike up or down... and those are the situations that resulted most often in profit, as it did again, today with last two trades.

With moves this big I also think I should put my SL wider... at least the trailing one. I could set a hard one initially just a bit above the latest high (or below the lowest low) but once price start moving my way remove it and put a large trailing one.... and when price starts to reach a support or resistance level tighten it. This may cause some winners to turn into losers but I also won't miss the huge profits that would have been there if I didn't get stopped out prematurely

 

[DrSafari]

Preparation for 14-12-2016


No big opportunities in sight yet.



Also, if I am to trade more sporadically and choosing only the best opportunities, maybe it's best to define a system so that I can start collecting data, else it will take even longer.

Or I should get me Sierra software to start manual backtesting (currently developing something myself but since I have a daytime job and am trading as well my time is limited I'm afraid).

A possibility to be able to trade more is swithcing to the NASDAQ because it generally has more good trading opportunities

 

[DrSafari]

Long S&P500

Net P/L -1.10 points

Amount 1 Contracts

Opening Rate 2263.3
Close Rate 2262.2

Open Time 12/14/2016 4:11 PM
Close Time 12/14/2016 4:17 PM

Stop loss: trailing stop loss 1.50 point

Entry and exit 5m chart

(5 min chart due to 1 min data not available anymore)


Reason of closure: trailing stop loss got hit


Comments
Got stopped out again but did go up afterwards, maybe I should step away from using a trailing stop loss and just put a fixed one and then keep monitoring the trade and tighten when any S&R levels are near? I feel this would have saved me from many losing trades and would have resulted in some even bigger profits.

 

[DrSafari]

Preparation for 15-12-2016

 

[DrSafari]

Short S&P500

Net P/L -4.86 points

Amount 1 Contracts

Opening Rate 2260.57
Close Rate 2265.43

Open Time 12/15/2016 4:08 PM
Close Time 12/15/2016 5:05 PM

Stop loss: fixed stop loss of around 4 points

Entry and exit 5m chart (orange line is the SL)

(5 min chart due to 1 min data not available anymore)


Reason of closure: stop loss got hit


Comments
Trade didn't work... it was a big move, looked like an opportunity, I put my SL wider this time. It simply did not work out, nothing more to add really.

Oh yeah I put the black dot there to indicate that if I had first waited for a retracement and then entered at the black dot I still would have been stopped out, so that's not a guarantee either, but nothing is

I think it's about time I came up with an objective system based on all my previous S&R trades and start testing that. Now Im just dabbeling about. Based on all those trades I can't tell by heart what approach I should take, so I will examine them more closely and hopefully find something which will work for most of them.... or better said something which will have a positive return over all those trades.

 

[DrSafari]

I have come up with a new trading plan. This however will result in a lot less trades on the S&P500 futures so will need to be patient. However I am also gonna test this on the NASDAQ. It is a very simple plan but seems to have filtered out the bad trades and kept the good ones since my S&R experiments since september. Here goes.


The New Trading System (to be tested)

1) Define S&R levels up front monthly, weekly and daily
2) Look for big moves 8 points or more (over the course of maximum 4 hours), that is either within a Range (between S and R levels) or an outbreak from them
3) watch where it reverses and after 1.50 in opposite direction, take position in direction of trend
4) put stop loss at 0.25 above or below highest high or lowest low (risking 1.75)
5) when nearing resistance (1p distance) or 3R profit put in a tight (tightest possible) trailing SL.

6) avoid trading during US market open for now. Must a trade drag on long and would still be open during US market open, put tight trailings SL. Or close in case left over profit would be 0 or less.

 

[DrSafari]

Short NASDAQ-100

Net P/L +2.03 points

Amount 1 Contracts

Opening Rate 4943.57
Close Rate 4941.54

Open Time 12/16/2016 3:01 PM
Close Time 12/16/2016 3:27 PM

Stop loss: fixed stop loss 0.25 points above highest high

Entry and exit on a 5m chart




Reason of closure: US market was about to open and could not put a tight trailing SL because broker does not allow it.

Comments
Traded on NASDAQ. There was a big move over the last 4 hours from 4931.00 to the high marked in orange on the chart. Then price was dropping and dropped for at least 1.5 points so it met all the qualifications so I took the short. Exited because US market would open soon. Trade according to plan. A winner.

 

[DrSafari]

Preparation NASDAQ week



Preparation NASDAQ 19-12-2017

 

[DrSafari]

I took no trades but would I have been watching the market I could have taken 3 trades of which 1 would be succesful (orange arrow) and 2 unsuccesful (blue arrow). The succesful one would majorly outweight the unsuccessful ones though. Although I have the feeling I need a bit more clear exit criteria to cover for every situation. Also since NASDAQ moves a lot more than S&P500 some of the citeria may need to be adapted. For instance the atleast 1.5 point move in desired direction now results in two failed trades... then again, who cares if the other winning trade more than makes up for it. The 8 point difference over 4 hour may not be enough for NASDAQ to filter out the dud trades.

Also note that price broke through the weekly resistance level and formed a double top at the orange arrow.

Chart is a 5m chart.

 

[DrSafari]

Some clarifications:



The New Trading System (to be tested)

1) Define S&R levels up front monthly, weekly and daily
2) Look for big moves 8 points or more (over the course of maximum 4 hours), that is either within a Range (between S and R levels) or an outbreak from them
3) watch where it reverses after a higher high and after 1.50 in opposite direction, take position in direction of trend
4) put stop loss at 0.25 above or below highest high or lowest low (risking 1.75)
5) when nearing resistance (1p distance) or 3R profit put in a tight (tightest possible) trailing SL.

6) avoid trading during US market open for now. Must a trade drag on long and would still be open during US market open, put tight trailings SL. Or close in case left over profit would be 0 or less.

 

[DrSafari]

Preparation NASDAQ 20-12-2016