my journal 3

I will review your analysis later or early tomorrow. During the weekend I have to work, and even when I have some free time, my son and wife want to do something else, of course.
Just to let you know I didn't miss your post.
 
Ok, thank you. Take your time. Whenever you get to it, don't forget there's in fact four analyses, one per market: JPY, NG, GBL, ZW.
 
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More on my money management for the upcoming weeks.

This is a pie chart with my systems and their % weight on my capital, in terms of risk, figure which I derived by multiplying their average loss by their frequency of trading (and contracts allocated):

Snap1.jpg

Naturally, I cannot reduce the contracts on the NG systems to less than 1, so that is why they're so heavy (the system is a normal system, but the NG contract is a heavy one).

Thanks to this methodology I already reduced the CL to a QM contract (half as big). But it is still a bit heavier than the others. Except for these 3 systems, the rest is quite balanced. But I cannot leave them out because they're quite good.
 
I didn't have time to fully review your analysis, will do better early tomorrow, but, at first sight, looking at your charts:
GBL: I agree
ZW: I would go long earlier; specifically, around 750
NG: I would go short at 3.42; about going long, I need to see a lower timeframe: can't see any particular demand zone at 3.15 only looking at the daily chart, but this doesn't mean much: there might be zones looking at 4 hours or 1 hour chart

For JPY I would need to see more data, because my analysis doesn't cover "fresh ground", and by your chart, and mine too, this is a fresh low; I know it is not an historical low, but I don't have enough data at the moment.

All of this is based on my strategy, but only means that I see supply/demand at the suggested prices:
1- it's not a given that I will trade those instruments at that price; like in my example trades, I wait for price to reach the levels I like, but then I switch to a lower timeframe and perform a totally different analysis: if this analysis tells me to pull the trigger, I use market orders;
2- even if I do, I could be happy with a 10/20 tick win, while maybe you have in mind 100/200 ticks; this is very important: I don't have an edge on the market in predicting large movements; the good thing of my strategy is that (when it's right) I often get away with 10/15 easy ticks in less than 1 hour: from there, sometimes I close at break-even or with a small loss, sometimes I get those ticks, and only occasionally I get the big win;
3- of course, I'm often wrong, like anybody else;

Tomorrow I'll be able to be much more specific on ZW and NG.
 
Thank you. Great advice. All good points.

Given that you agree on GBL, which is my best trade for tomorrow, I would advise that you get short on it, too, because tomorrow it might reach the entry point.

Also, according to my analysis, Tuesday is an up day for GBL, so if 144 is not reached tomorrow, it might be reached on Tuesday.
 
Update:
on NG 4 hour chart, I actually see demand zones, one around 3.20/22 and one around 3.15
on ZW chart, I see that I would actually buy around 746, not around 750 like I stated yesterday

I will monitor GBL, but I'm not going to trade it, nor enable the real time data feed. I thought about this, but in the end my conclusion is that at my stage, adding new, never traded instruments is not a good idea.
I'm not even at 10K in my process of building back my bankroll; let things develop with what I know better, then we'll see.
I know, it's a psychological thing, but that's what always screws us, so let's go the safe way.
 
It sounds great, because it is further confirming my own analysis (which pretty much said to buy at the previous lows).

But now, given what I wrote before, what do we do if I win on ZW and NG? I had thought about a 20% reward for your signals, but for these two I haven't moved my LMT entry order, although your confirmation is indeed important, because it gives me confidence and confidence is important in sticking with your trades.

I will do this. I will reward you with a 20% of the profit I made for those trades that are entirely based on your signals, such as those you did last week on JPY (cfr. this post) and, before that, on CAD (cfr. this post). If I made money through your signals, I would feel like some sort of percentage is owed to you.

For the other information, such as these levels on NG and ZW, I thank you very much, but I wouldn't think of a 20%, also because I am sharing, too, some information about my own analysis.

I realize that you never even asked for it, but I'll do it, when I'll finally get the chance to execute your signals, from home. The problem however is that I won't be home every day until 14.30 to execute those quick signals you give us for those 20 ticks trades that you do. Another thing that worries me is disclosing my own identity by paying you through paypal, but if I make money through your signals, I should be able to put up with that unpleasant aspect... of profit.

Regarding GBL, I am sorry that you miss this opportunity, because GBL is close to stoplosslessness, which means it can't go any higher than 146, so, for 1 contract, you don't need to use a stoploss.

But at the same time, I am also glad that you're showing prudence and wisdom.
 
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Yesterday, a lot of frustration, during the evening.

1. Eating out

A friend and his friend came to pick me up to go to dinner outside, "outside" meaning nightmare to me. Outside means where people, rude people, people who aren't like me, have the power to interfere with my plans, even if it were just by looking at me, which is what happened. We were sitting and having our pizzas, the three of us, when a couple to my left was staring at us, maybe bored with their non-existent conversation.

I managed to not stare back nor say a word to them nor show them my two middle fingers as I would have liked to do. I would have liked to say to him and her: "you are two rude mother ****ers, and I did not come here to have dinner while being stared at by you two the whole time". Very unpleasant thing.

I should have taken it as my training for dealing with unpleasant events, such as losses, but I didn't remember of it. That was a good opportunity to learn to accept... to smile in the face of adversity. But damn, just like I want to do martingale to get back at the market, yesterday I wanted to slaughter these two rude people. Why don't I have the power to make people disappear at will? Damn.

Anyway, I should have used it as training for facing unpleasant and unavoidable events, without being upset by them.

2. Parents

Parents are always negative, because yesterday I told them about my profit with trading and how I cannot remove the profit, as suggested by them and everyone I know, because then my (smaller) capital would not be as productive and I would be unable to reach the 500k that my mother said is the safe amount of money needed to quit my job. And both were very disappointing although with not exactly the same arguments. So twice as disappointing.

My mom has always been an idiot so that wasn't really a surprise, and my father has always been pessimistic and negative, so that wasn't surprise either.

Basically their arguments agreed on one thing: I cannot be without a job, no matter how much money I make with trading.

For my father, the reasons were that all property, apartments and money can disappear during a war very easily and, if you don't have a job, you're left with nothing.

Jesus.

Ok, the previous version was like this.

1) It's not safe to quit your job because your income from trading could stop.
2) It is only safe if you set aside some money and buy apartments with it, from which you have a rent.

That was the previous version.

Now that things are looking a bit better, and I might be able to achieve that previously impossible goal, they set it higher, so I can't quit my job anyway. They set the goal to being literally impossible from the start: can't quit job, because not only money but also property can disappear in case of a war.

Two assholes basically, more or less. Two people who want you to live a life of struggle, sacrifice, suffering and pain. Two people according to whom basically you're only OK if you are dead. Life is only safe for you once you are dead.

It gets even funnier and more grotesque than this. They were arguing that since I don't like working at a bank, I should look for another job that I like, such as being a journalist for example.

So now it's not enough that I've worked and studied all my life without ever having any fun, but, while being on a part-time schedule at the bank, and making money with trading, I should also get in touch with a newspaper to try and become a journalist, as a third job.

Eventually, it might turn out that my father will tell me to become a psychiatrist, which was my original desire when I was a freshman in college and he totally discouraged me from it, saying I needed a real job, and that studying psychology or philosophy (as I said I wanted to do) would not lead to a job, and he urged me to choose anything I wanted provided it was a job, and therefore I chose Political Science and he said he approved, "if that's your choice..." - but he left me no choice but choosing what he wanted. In fact political science was even less of a job than studying psychology and that's why today I am working at a bank.

I often have the feeling that these guys want me dead. They would prefer to see me give my life for a noble cause. Ideally, for my mom, I would have die on the cross, like Jesus. For my father, probably I should die fighting in a war. I also have to mention that they live their lives more or less the same way they are expecting me to live mine, as a martyr.

...

At the same time, I am not positive that they're sadistic, because most likely it is all due to their morals and their religion.

I am not sure. Maybe they're uncomfortable with me being happy altogether and not out of sadism, but rather out of Catholicism, which is a variant of masochism.

To them, we're born to suffer, and if you're not suffering, there is something wrong with you, and you are sinning. You should not seek pleasure, or lack of suffering as I am doing, but rather you should seek suffering and martyrdom.

I've got a couple of really brain dead people as parents. Brain washed by religion. Full of contradictions. Man, my life really really sucks, for being as lucky as I have been. I see a lot of people around, have seen all my life, and, compared to all these guys I've seen around me, I've always felt like my mom was a nun and my father some general from the army, like the Great Santini. It's like having to live with all the problems from both worlds: religious and military.

And this didn't lead me to rebellion. It lead me to demoralization and depression, as in: "what the ****... I can't do anything".

idea2develop
 
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Definitely not an easy-going person. I am still thinking about the two assholes who were staring at me yesterday, the whole dinner.

In the same way, when I incur a loss, I keep thinking about it for hours, until I do the martingale.

Other times, when I was younger, I'd stare back and talk and tell people "what are you looking at? Do you want some of my french fries?".

I am like a person who is used to getting things done, solving problems, and therefore having things his way, not out of being spoiled, but out of working hard to solve problems.

In that way, I cannot stand these guys being able to stare at me without retribution. It's an injustice.

I cannot stand being wronged. I do not forget being wronged. Ever.

Precisely because I tend not to wrong others.
 
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The 'staring at you' thing in the restaurant. Sounds very 'european'. People go out to dinner or coffee just to pry on others. They often have nothing to talk about, they just want to sit and listen to others or watch them. Sounds like you were having an interesting conversation perhaps? Or maybe they both fancied you and your mates?

My favored technique is to do the Michael Johnson stare: you stare straight back at them, they will eventually look away. Then keep staring at them, and 'thru them' as much as possible. They will at some point look back at you. And again, out stare them. The satisfaction is immeasurable. For the rest of your evening. You have no need to look at them or pay them any attention whatsoever. Michael Johnson did this before races if he found competitors looking at him. In hindsight he said it definitely gave him an edge even tho he didnt realise it at the time.

Sorry to take your thread off topic.
Got an automated trading query.

Code is such:

If condition1 then
Sell short next bar at market

I want it to:

If condition1 then
Sell short this bar at market

'at market' is impossible because it is referring to the past. Does anyone know the solution? TradeStation doesnt seem to like intra bar execution. Googled it, found no solutions. It wont even take "sell short this bar at last".

The only thing my head is telling me is to go about this from another angle - have the orders for the next bar in place rather than trying to execute in 'this bar'.
 
Thanks for the advice, and that was my method as well, until one day... in 2003, I was in the train back to Bologna, from Rome, and I had to spend 2 hours with 4 students all staring back at me (and one of them had started the staring context) for probably one straight hour, until I gave up. Despite being right, it turned into a very humbling experience for me. Needless to say those 4 are on my hit list, whenever I'll have enough money to pay a hit man.

I will resume doing it I guess, but it is a tool that should be used sparingly.

Your analysis is otherwise dead on target.

I must say this, about myself and my social problems. Given that my mommy mainly has removed all the other tools through upbringing and education (you can't swear, you can't be rude, you can't do jack **** basically...), the most effective tool (and only tool I have left) for coping with problems is solving these problems at the root, by avoiding human beings. Another problem is that, on top of being polite and non-violent, I am totally intolerant. That is an explosive mix. That's why I chose Travis Bickle as as nick name, because one day... "someday a real rain will come and wash all this scum off the streets".

Like Travis, I am thirsty for blood and justice, and one day I will go postal, on a killing rampage, and slaughter a few of these unjust humans.

Regarding the easylanguage question, I am very familiar with your problem, and I also wanted to buy at market, and this is what I use and what I suggest you use, too:

If condition Then buy This Bar;
If condition2 Then Exitlong This Bar;

It will sell at the close of that bar, which is the same as a MKT order (of course it relies on your timeframe, the more bars the better, but I am ok with using a timeframe of 15 minutes).
 
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To Travis: don't even think of rewarding me for my signals; this would put a lot of pressure on me in trying to provide only right signals, which is impossible of course.
If I wanted to make this job I could go to the many online forex brokers looking for account managers. They give you a demo account, and if you make money they give you small accounts to manage, and if it works, they give you more and more money to manage. You can easily make relevant money, if you have an edge on the market, but I prefer to stay here, under the radar, not revealing my identity, just like you.
By the way, I don't think we'll actually make too many trades together: different techniques and different times: like you said you're away until 14:30, I'm very often away after 17:00 on Monday/Wednesday/Friday.
Add to this that my trading time is gonna be hit hard in 20 days, because I work with tourists, and the season will start, reaching a peak during the Summer when I won't have time at all; really, my window is from November to February (that's the reason why I'm working with other programmers to try and automate my stuff).
One of the main reasons for my latest bust, about one year ago, was the anxiety given by this fact (my trading time was coming to an end), so I'm going to be very prudent this time.

To D70: like Travis said, the only thing you can do to have a fast response, is to use the lowest possible timeframe (1 minute). The only orders Tradestation can send on the "current" bar are executed at close.
 
Well, I know what it feels to have a small capital. So, if I'll make money with your signals, I will still try to give it to you (20%).

Today none of my trades got triggered, but your analysis on ZW would have triggered a buy at 750, because that is exactly how much it fell. But I don't want to get in yet, especially considering that on Tuesdays usually bond futures rise and all the others fall.

Regarding the forex brokers, I didn't know about this. Otherwise I would have done it, when I had little capital. Now, as you said, it is better to be anonymous and under the radar.

Regarding your signals being discontinued, I am sorry. But your analysis will always be appreciated, even if it's not a live signal but an estimate of support/resistance level for the future.

Today I went to the Vatican, to check out the journalists and cameras (very few people otherwise, probably due to the cold) and now I'll get to work on my conspiracy theories sources to see what's really behind the pope's resignation. Clearly not health problems as he said. For once I might be able to verify if my conspiracy theorists are informed or not.

This is all I could find so far (lots of conspiracy theories on that forum):
BREAKING- Pope Benedict resigning at the end of the month!
As soon as we know what this is all about will update ... first time a Pope has left office since Pope Gregory XII in 1415!!!!
Click to expand...

Unfortunately facebook, being meant for the brain dead sheeple, doesn't have much indexing reserch potential. There is no search engine for status updates or similar.

Other than this, the systems made a few hundreds on HG.

...

I just went long on JPY with 1 contract. No martingale this time. This is it, not more than 1 contract. At around 0.010700.

...

I just went long on ZW as well. At around 744.
 
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Ok, the trades are going pretty well, in the sense that I've opened them hours ago and they're still at break-even, which is a good sign when you're opening a trade that's supposed to last a whole week.

Regarding the pope, I've managed to find several alternative theories/tracks to follow, via facebook and via my colleagues and others.

Google them if you want to know more.

1) sex scandal, father Georg Gänswein, pedophilia, etc.
2) financial scandal, anti-money laundering, vatican bank, Gotti Tedeschi, Vatileaks scandal
3) the pope is really sick, as he said, probably has alzheimer (my sources here in rome)... first resignation in hundreds of years but because times are changing, media show the leader and leader has to be strong, and traveling has increased... many changes in the culture - the load on the pope has increased in recent years
4) the pope is robert blake
5) petrus romanus, antichrist theory

I would opt for the financial thing, because in the past another pope, just 30 years ago, might have been assassinated because of it. There's a lot of money laundering in the vatican bank.

My father instead says the medical explanation is more likely (cfr. #3 for changing of culture due to load on pope due to media and travelling).
 
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