my journal 3

[pecas]

Sold JPY @807, chart coming.

Losing 53 ticks if I'm stopped is not in my plans, I could close the trade way earlier if I see things I don't like. Unfortunately price reached the supply zone with very high volatility, and the "move away" was brutal; I was hoping to sell around 830, but this is what I got this time.

 

[pecas]

All happening very fast; this small demand zone in the 5 min chart could be an obstacle to reach the target:

 

[pecas]

Not even the time to take a shot, and here comes the rebound. Volume will tell me if it is serious, or if I can stay in the trade:

 

[pecas]

Volume tells me to stay in the trade, but it was a bloody rebound, eating more than half of my quick profit.

 

[Yamato]

Congratulations on another successful currency trade (of course I am at the office, so I missed this one, too).

Yes, I hear you about GBL. However, why don't you enable it? The more futures you have, the wider your choice, the more your opportunities.

Regarding the JPY, I can't believe you didn't place a LMT sell if your plan was to go short on it. I mean, your insights were great and they agreed with my analysis, which said to place a close sell LMT at 833, because that was 200 ticks to the upside from the low of 633, and 200 ticks is the typical bounce on JPY.

Regarding the good luck: I try not to believe in these things, although lately I've almost believed in the devil due to JPY bouncing for hours around 666. Trading is so gut-wrenching and anguishing that it will turn a rational person like me into a magical thinking one. Just like when you're on a plane and you're atheist, but when it looks like it's about to crash, you start praying.

But I believe very much in the good impact of discretionary traders working together, and even automated-traders. I've experienced with the investors. However, there are side-effects when it comes to other things, such as the fact that they learn your systems and can do whatever they want with them afterwards, and that's the part of deals and broken promises that pisses me off.

Anyway, regarding people working together, I see D70 reading, so if he wants to join us in the discussion on GBL or other trades, let us know.

...

Another trade that looks good is long on wheat:



But I am not going to do it unless others trade with me, because we have seen how disastrous my trading is, with each trade being "blow out account or make 2000 dollars" for the last few weeks.

 

[pecas]

I see just € 8/month (€ 12 if you want depth, which I don't use btw). Could be a good thing.
My account is around 8K at the moment; I don't feel the need for more futures to analyze, but definitely will think about adding it.

 

[pecas]

JPY update: breached the small demand zone, but it's rebounding again, where I didn't expect it to rebound. Still with low volume, for now. I placed a trailing stop at 792, so now I'm in for a sure profit. Needless to say, I will be pissed if this stop is hit.
If it goes to target, there is another potential small obstacle, but I'm not worried to take 10 ticks less than I planned, if I see support there.

 

[pecas]

Stopped @793 (1 tick slippage), and pissed off.

 

[Yamato]

I see just € 8/month (€ 12 if you want depth, which I don't use btw). Could be a good thing.
My account is around 8K at the moment; I don't feel the need for more futures to analyze, but definitely will think about adding it.

Yes, by all means. There's a lot of money to be made right now on GBL. It has very low spread costs (always one tick). And low margin requirements (1500 euros during intraday).

And, as I said, this is a range, that has a clear roof on top, at 146. Best market around right now.

 

[Yamato]

Stopped @793 (1 tick slippage), and pissed off.

Oh yeah... I know what it feels like. Missed profit is almost as bad as a loss. I feel a desire to make missed profit back, and then I sometimes go against the very trend that gave me that partial profit, and then I end up losing even that little profit I had made, and end up with a loss. Eventually, if you keep chasing these things, you end up blowing out the account, within a few days. Here I am, with my 20th account to prove it.

 

[pecas]

Targets is definitely my weakness. I have to work a lot on this.

I think this weakness affects almost any trader; ask yourself this question: of your entire work to find a profitable trading method, how much effort is placed in finding good entry points and how much effort is placed in finding good exit points?

I bet there's many who can answer 100% - 0%, and many others can say 90% - 10%.

In the end, why should you be so meticolous in finding good entry points, and so lazy in finding good exit points: why exit points shouldn't be pondered the same way we do with entries?

 

[Yamato]

Yes, I understand you completely. Here's a little note I wrote myself as a reminder in my index.html, where I do my discretionary analysis (I posted it here several times):

REMEMBER:
1) entry trade-off: enter with a LMT and you might miss an entry vs. use MKT and you might miss a better price
2) - exit trade-off: set a loose stoploss and you might lose lots vs. set a tight stoploss and you might miss a profitable trade
3) + exit trade-off: exit with a nearby LMT and you might miss profit vs. exit with a distant LMT and you might miss profit, too
4) stoploss trade-off: don't use it and miss profit out of fear for losses vs. use it and a peak/bottom might turn a profitable trade into a loss.

Is there a way you could enable your GBL feed right now, in time not to miss a stoplosslessness situation on GBL? If you look at the past years, you will realize we're approaching a point where you can make thousands with practically no risk. I would feel very good about entering this trade with you, approximately next Tuesday, when GBL like ZN tend to rise (all Tuesdays). I believe by Tuesday we will reach about 144, and we should both go short on GBL with at least 1 contract. If not even 2.

 

[pecas]

Let's not forget this is Travis thread: I was concentrated on my trade till now, but congratulations man, you're out of the jam!! I rooted for you these days.

Can I make a suggestion? Close GBP, whatever it gives you right now; let your nerves relax; take this day off from trading, and come back Monday, stronger.

 

[Yamato]

Thanks, your rooting worked. I am really happy today. But now, with your help, I will stay out of trouble. If we agree that we make all trades together.

In particular, as explained above, I would be eager to enter a short on GBL with you.

I'll close the GBP trade once I get home. I cannot access my server from work (firewall).

 

[D70]

Hi Pecas,
What is your history? If you dont mind embellishing us.
Thx.

 

[pecas]

OK, I'm off for the week already, I don't plan to trade again today. About GBL next week, let me think about it. I'm going to find charts for it and see what I get.

Maybe useful: if you have an iPhone or an Android phone, you can download (for free) mobile TWS app; the downside: when you connect from mobile, your TWS at home will disconnect (only one instance of data feed can be delivered). Still good for emergencies, better than not having any chance to close a position for hours.

 

[Yamato]

Oh yes, great tool by all means, I know. But I can't disconnect TWS because the server is running it with my systems. Of which i have kept a forward-tested record for years, without ever missing one day, even when I don't trade with money.

Regarding GBL, you can find it here:
eSignal.com free world stock market quotes and charts

I have historical data up to 2011 if I remember correctly. And I can send that to you via email, if you want it, once I get home.

 

[Yamato]

Hi Pecas,
What is your history? If you dont mind embellishing us.
Thx.

I am quoting you because he might have missed the question, given your simultaneous posts and my subsequent reply.

I can reveal in advance that he's Italian like me, and, unlike me, he has a good background in math.

 

[pecas]

To answer about my history, I'm a pioneer of automated trading.
I bought my first copy of Tradestation 4.0 in 1997 (paying it $4200, lol).
The market was very easy to spot, and I had a winning system, but, like Travis, no, much worse than him, I always had problems with discipline.

In the years 1997-2001 my system made money, but I could never get away with it. I made money, and then took gambles with them, losing all.

Some examples: speaking of € (but in those times we had no euros), in one day, in May 1999, I turned my €10K into €30K with options. Market closed at 5pm, and by 8pm I had bought an Audi TT. That's been my best single day, and also my best decision: buying a car before blowing my account for good.

In March 2000 I reached my highest bankroll: 150K, and I started looking for an apartment to buy; one month later, I had burned all.

On Sept 11th, 2001, I lost 100K plus in 2 hours (yeah, I was long when the towers crashed). I was hypnotized by CNBC, looking at a destroyed Manhattan like if it was a sci-fi movie.

After this big blow, I didn't trade for years. What I'm doing now is the same thing, but with a lot lower bankroll. I have a family now, and I grew of course. The result is the same so far, but at least I always start my account with an amount of money that I can afford to lose.

I still blew my account less than one year ago: went from 10K to 30K, started doing crazy trades, reached 40K and then blew all, again.

Some months of break, and I'm back again, building up my account. So far so good, as always. Until next time.

 

[Yamato]

I waited for a bit, to allow everyone to read carefully your precious information, without posting and pushing your post higher.

Now that I don't see readers on the bottom of this page, I can say my opinion.

This is a very important biographical post. It makes me understand how close I am to you. Also, I am learning that, despite losing it later, you have proven to have very good skills at trading, and have had them for a long time.

Your story, and mine, too, on a smaller scale (because I never reached more than 31k dollars) remind me of Jesse Livermore, who managed to bring his capital to the sky before losing it again and again.

Your story is much more interesting than mine and shows much more skill than mine. Not that I ever claimed to have any skills, but after going from 4k to 30k repeatedly, I fool myself into thinking that I do have some skill. Even if this skill were just the fact that I am persistent.

Your story also revealed to me how familiar you are with tradestation.

We have learned this:

1) first phase of trading experience: blowing out your account very quickly due to lack of profitability
2) second phase of trading: blowing out your account after compounding it enormously due to lack of risk/money management

You and I and Jesse Livermore never got past phase 2. Yet.

We're more or less at this Scarface phase here:

Scarface "the world chico...and everything in it" - YouTube

Manny is trying to talk some sense into us... but we're thinking big. We want the world, chico.

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