my journal 3

Damn damn damn... I have to keep track of things here so I'm going to have to tell you about the latest mishap that concerns me: lost 1500 dollars by the systems trades today.

I am still keeping my discipline, but the gods of the markets do not seem to favor me. 3 weeks of trading and still no profit by the systems. Capital is now slightly higher than 8000 dollars.

I can only sit by the sidelines and keep hoping. All my rationality and intelligence cannot help, especially at a time like this, because it comes along with compulsiveness. So, much better to do nothing.

With this methodology, I have gone on trading the systems for 2 months, which would not have been possible had I tampered: i would have lost everything by now - at least according to my discretionary track record, which doesn't see an account survive for as long as two months.
 
US Presidential Election Winner Betting Odds | Politics and Election Betting

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If you bet 10 and predict correctly, with Obama's win they give you 12.5, with Romney's victory they pay you 36, at Sporting Bet. Similar, but not as large a spread at the others.

The more time goes by, the more the trend seems to be that romney will lose (cfr. my previous posts). Nonetheless I still believe that Romney will win, according to my reasoning (see previous posts).

Fellow thinker (instead of "dude"), my trading week has closed with a loss of 1000 overall. The drawdown is now at -7000, after making 6000, so now I am at 1000 less than what I started with.

Another important thing to stress out is that over the past year this combination of systems has had a maximum drawdown on a weekly basis of 4000, and within the first two months of trading them with money, I've already had 6000 of drawdown (on a weekly basis). This confirms to me what I've always thought, that is: if you pick a given list of teams in a soccer tournament, it is nearly impossible that the top half of the teams will be the same teams of the next tournament. In other words, performance comes and goes, and you can't maximise everything. You can only push your profit maximisation so far. No matter how much backtesting, and forward-testing you have done, whatever combination you pick, it is likely to do worse in the future. You pick the best back-tested systems, then out of those you pick the best forward-tested systems, then you observe that group for a while, and then finally you trade them: and they still do worse than what they have done until now (almost always).

In the meanwhile Tila Tequila is being advised not to bark at the Illuminati:

( miss tila tequila) never take anonymous nor the illuminati lightly but very seriously - YouTube

What this person says is very interesting. His delivery is fascinating.

One week later (two hours ago):

( Tila Tequila ) news flash the Illuminati has already got you. yet your still blind - YouTube
 
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Oh, wow, what a moron: at the previous post I "closed the week" two days early. Today is Thursday but it's a holiday here, so I mistakenly felt like yesterday was a Friday, and didn't even start the systems. Luckily I woke up pretty early, and remembered that it wasn't a Saturday today but just a holiday!

So I went to the server, turned TWS on, turned on my excel workbook, and manually fixed all the problems caused by starting the workbook... two hours later than I should have. I still missed 2 paper trades and one real trade, but those 3 systems trade very often, so one trade missed is irrelevant, and profit was nothing, like 20 dollars.

It is the first time that I make such a mistake. I guess I have been relaxed yesterday. When I relax I forget things - that's why I never forget things, since I never relax.
 
Woody Harrelson Presents: Ethos (2011, Director Pete McGain) - YouTube

wow, woody harrelson has finally come out in a big way, since he is presenting a documentary that, towards the end, has a clip with aaron russo, who tells about his certainty of 911 being an inside job. He is taking big risks, at least considering that he is the first big star to do this, after charlie sheen. I've always liked him as an actor, and now I admire him as a person.
 
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Paris Tosen on "androids among us"

Androids Among Us (2010) - YouTube

This is absolutely interesting, because it might be true. After finding out about 911 and the rest of the conspiracies, nothing is absurd to me anymore.

Tila Tequila presents it as a fact:

The Government Are Cloning Humans and Themselves! They're All ZOMBIES! - YouTube

More by Paris Tosen, who doesn't seem crazy at all:

American Androids (Part 1) - YouTube

It seems unlikely, but I can't be positive about it. I mean the evidence he brings forward is... the blinking of the alleged androids. I can't be positive that it isn't the case. If it is the case, then this guy is either crazy or works for the government to confuse us.

Crazy or not crazy, what he says is quite interesting.

Tila Tequila instead is losing some credibility by me, because she seems to present other people's theories, and to assume they're true, and tells them to us as if they were first-hand experiences of hers. I mean, it's ok to tell us about anything you believe, but don't make it all seem like you have the proof of it. One thing is to tell us that, because you were in Hollywood, you found out the hidden meaning of television programs. Another thing is to tell us you also found out that Obama, Lieberman and Pelosi are clones. And you need to stress out that you're telling someone else's theory, or ALL that you're saying will lose credibility. The problem is that Tila is telling us everything as if it were a first-hand experience and then showing us someone else's documentary as the proof. This is contradictory and it shows maybe even bad faith, or at least a bluff to keep her fans entertained. Anyway, I am suspecting that she has stepped into dishonesty. Or delusion.
 
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OK, I am back at work and at the start of my third month of trading the systems, and have seen no profit so far. I am so ****ing demoralized. Having been defeated by society, by randomness, by people. Don't get me wrong - I am not saying that I am sleeping under a bridge or other uncomfortable situation. I am saying that I have not achieved the success that I had expected I would achieve. And this is quite depressing.

I have achieved no success at all. Despite working hard. Of course I am not giving up either.

Furthermore I am much more disappointed by people than by myself. I lacked, maybe, some hard work in college and I made mistakes in choosing my major (political science). Then another blame is my compulsive gambling, by all means. But other than this, my "failure" at work and at society is not really something I can blame myself for. They were playing by rules that I didn't accept, saying one thing and doing another, speaking of honesty and acting dishonestly. I took the rules I was taught literally, and I lost. I would not change anything about having been fair and honest. The only mistake maybe is that... those mentioned above.

Right now, one intermediate objective, pretty small, achievable, that I could work on, is to become completely raw vegan by eliminating milk from my diet. And corn flakes as well. But I'll start from milk, because it is the most harmful.

I think I am going to go for soy milk, but if possible not even milk at all, and just soy beans. I need some source of proteins and calcium, which is what I've been getting from milk up to now. Unfortunately, as I've written before, the fat in milk clogs arteries. Which basically means a heart attack. The good news is that the fat buildup in your arteries (or whatever it's called) is reversible. If you stop, after a while they clean up. And I want to clean up, both with my diet and with trading.

But even better, before starting with soy milk, I will start from skim milk. Then move on to soy milk, then on to soy beans.
 
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the hell with me and my boring discipline - i placed 3 trades, on CL, NG, GBL

**** this

this is too ****ing boring

I'll let you know how it went

I can't wait 2 months and make zero money while everything around me is falling apart and pretty soon the markets won't be there anymore, nor money, nor the financial system - **** this

Yep, this is me. And i hadn't told you that I placed a mother ****ing discretionary trade earlier this morning. And I didn't tell you either that yesterday I placed another 3 or 4 discretionary trades and made 600 dollars from them. So now it is 4 discretionary trades for the day, and 4 yesterday, yeah:

Snap1.jpg

And I am breaking even.

Hey, you can't expect me to go through what i've gone through this month (attempted office change at work, chat argument, two months of break-even automated trading) and do nothing. I am fed up with sitting still.

Probably after this relapse, the urge will go away for another month.

...

Damn, losing about 900 dollars right now. Pretty sick behaviour from me. At the same time yesterday I made 600, so I will probably break even from these crappy trades.

...

That's it. I resisted two months and then I blew it. Losing more than 1000 dollars for the day. I resisted two months and then i blew it, precisely because I came home from movies. I stopped going to movies, I lasted for an extra week, and then i started gambling again. It hadn't gone away. The urge was still totally with me. It just seemed that way because I wasn't home.

Now I can't even close my two CL and NG positions and will stay long on them overnight. I cannot take this 1000 dollars loss. GBL was no problem because i closed it at breakeven.

...

Losing 1200 now.

...

Total defeat. This time, if I blow it out, I lasted 2 months. I was also quite unlucky: huge drawdown with trading, huge problems at work, and I eventually gave in.

...

Losing 1300 now.

Yep, I am very very sick. A person from a sick family cannot turn out healthy.

Yep, too much compulsiveness. Which produced hard work, but overall, more damage - at least judging by how things are right now. I am not dead yet.

Yep, I lasted 2 months. Then I stopped going to the movies, I got closer and closer to the flame... until I finally got burned again.

Losing almost 1400 right now.

I am going to stop looking at it.

...

Ok, after a break of a few hours, let's look at it again

Last time I looked I was losing 1400 for the day.

Now losing 1300.

The only thing that can save me is Sandy. Hopefully... oh, and the presidential election. Hopefully they will affect prices in a positive way.
 
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Check this out, a youtube video that lasts... 72 hours:


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This was originally a live video on youtube on Sandy, so maybe that's why such an exception is allowed. I've never seen anything like it in terms of duration. It starts with "0:00" and after a few seconds the video starts and the length display reads "72" hours.
 
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US Presidential Election Winner Betting Odds | Politics and Election Betting

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These betfair (italian subsidiary) assholes aren't letting me open an account because they want a recent bill with my home address, but I can't get it because all my bills are paperless. So they kept me waiting for weeks, while my bet, Romney, would now return 333% on my investment. A correct bet on Obama winning would return just 20% (at the same company that returns 333% for romney). So people in general seem to be positive that Obama will win. I am surprised. Until now I have been positive that Romney will win, from my conspiracy studies. Too bad these assholes don't let me bet.
 
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