reasoning about empires falling
Yesterday, I went to sleep with this thought. I had watched the documentary "history of britain", and I fell asleep wondering: what is the mechanism by which a conqueror falls and gets conquered?
I've been wondering and there must be a logical solution to this question. The Celts get conquered by the Romans, but then, hundreds of years later, the Anglo-Saxons take them over, and then come the Vikings and kick the Saxons to the West, and then come the French from below, and then, since then, no one else and the English stay in power. But the same happened in every nation.
Now, to explain this logically, I must first state some points. It's not enough to be the most evolved society in order to stay on top. I mean: the barbarians were savages but they kicked the Romans asses. The Romans were less evolved than the Greeks, but conquered them.
So staying on top is not just a matter of culture and not even of technological evolution.
It's a mix of factors but mostly: how many people you have, and how desperate/violent they are.
Many people but divided won't be a problem. Many people united, desperate are going to make a difference, even if technlogically inferior - and that must have been the case with the barbarians, and all the stuff that went on for centuries in England and France and other parts of the Roman Empire.
Anyway, it begins like this: the Romans are not too civilized, violent, organized and many, and technologically advanced, so they conquer the Celts. Then, during the centuries, the Romans have a good time and get softer all the time, but manage to keep the barbarians under control through organization, technology, and so on. But then it gets to a point, where there's just too many soft people within the empire, and too many desperate savages outside of it, so the Roman Empire begins to fall, because everyone in it has gotten soft.
Then, for example the Saxons, the tough guys of the moment, conquer England, and stay there for a few hundred years, but then they get soft, too, and the Vikings come in and kick their ass. Simply because the desperate people have an incentive to move and look for better places, and the people who are doing well, just stay where they are, but if you're doing well, in some way, you're also getting soft, because you're going to be less willing to start a fight.
Migrations today still happen, just the same. From the less evolved countries to the richer and more advanced countries. Just like the law of
communicating vessels or whatever it's called. If you are hungry you go where there's food and so on.
How come today, there's no disruption of nations and empires? How come the Chinese don't overthrow the Russians, and the Mexicans don't overthrow the Americans? And the North Africans don't overthrow the Southern Europeans?
This is going to be the next question. However, it is clear now why empires rise and fall. It basically happens according to the law of
communicating vessels.
In the same way, within any society, the poor are encouraged to get mean and dishonest and grab some of the money that the rich have. And the rich try to keep their money, but it's hard to deny your money to a poor, when you have a lot of it, and when he's threatening you with a knife. You'd rather give it to him. He's more willing to fight for it than you. So money and happiness make you weaker, and lack of them make him stronger. Again, communicating vessels, that ensure that sooner or later the water gets even and leveled.
Just like the King in France, he kept on ruling those below him, but when the power wasn't there any more, for some reason, the water overflew him and he got his head cut off.
Sooner or later the barriers keeping the differences in place, and the poor in check, disappear, and when the barriers disappear, those who have money and happiness lose it and those who don't, get some of it. Everything gets mixed and you have a new people, made by the previous rich who got ****ed over a little bit, and the previous poor who got a little more money.
Until comes a new people from somewhere else.
So, why isn't this happening today? Why nations do not fall, invaded by the Chinese or the Mexicans?
I have to study this further, on youtube or somewhere else. It's a fascinating question. I guess it has to do with some of these things:
1) communications are not what they used to be: we know where all the new "barbarians" and how many they are
2) the new barbarians live within states, that keep them in: it's not like chinese leaders say "there's wealth in Japan, let's go get it". If they did, they could conquer Japan in a matter of days - however they don't, and I wonder why.
In fact, there is an example of this happening, with saddam hussein and kuwait. The World stopped him a few months later. So maybe the Chinese know that the world would unite against them, but I don't know if this is enough.... many many questions.