my journal 2

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...Βρεττανικαὶ λεγόμεναι, Ἀλβίων καὶ Ἰέρνη

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Britain_(name)
Latin Britannia is derived from the travel writings of the ancient Greek Pytheas around 320 BC, which describe various islands in the North Atlantic as far North as Thule...


http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pytheas
Pytheas of Massilia (Ancient Greek Πυθέας ὁ Μασσαλιώτης), 4th century BC, was a Greek geographer and explorer from the Greek colony, Massilia (modern day Marseille). He made a voyage of exploration to northwestern Europe at about 325 BC. He travelled around and visited a considerable part of Great Britain...


http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Albion
Albion (Greek: Ἀλβιών) is the oldest known name of the island of Great Britain. It is thought to derive from the White Cliffs of Dover.
...
The Pseudo-Aristotelian text De mundo (393b) has:

Ἐν τούτῳ γε μὴν νῆσοι μέγισται τυγχάνουσιν οὖσαι δύο, Βρεττανικαὶ λεγόμεναι, Ἀλβίων καὶ Ἰέρνη
"the largest islands they reached were two, called the Britannic [isles], Albion and Iernē."

White_cliffs_of_dover_09_2004.jpg



http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/A_History_of_Britain_(TV_series)



http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hadrian's_Wall


http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vindolanda_tablets
http://vindolanda.csad.ox.ac.uk/
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Claudia_Severa
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Our_Top_Ten_Treasures
http://vindolanda.csad.ox.ac.uk/tablets/search.shtml
http://vindolanda.csad.ox.ac.uk/tablets/browse.shtml
http://vindolanda.csad.ox.ac.uk/4DL...ral&webRequestBrowseResubmit=0&submit=Subject

http://vindolanda.csad.ox.ac.uk/4DL...yAllLeaves=0&thisLeafNum=1&thisLeafSide=front
Chrauttius to Veldeius his brother and old messmate, very many greetings. And I ask you, brother Veldeius - I am surprised that you have written nothing back to me for such a long time - whether you have heard anything from our elders, or about ... in which unit he is; and greet him from me in my words and Virilis the veterinary doctor. Ask him (sc. Virilis) whether you may send through one of our friends the pair of shears which he promised me in exchange for money. And I ask you, brother Virilis, to greet from me our sister Thuttena. Write back to us how Velbuteius is (?). (2nd hand?) It is my wish that you enjoy the best of fortune. Farewell. (Back, 1st hand) (Deliver) at London. To Veldedeius, groom of the governor, from his brother Chrauttius.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_castra
 
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I am doing all right. The sleeping pills are changing my life. If I sleep well I am in a good mood. But maybe it's also the fact that I am not doing any discretionary trading any more, and I don't miss it. The fact is that the account is empty, so there's no way for me to trade. However, if I had money on my account, I couldn't resist the temptation. It's like for everything else in my life. If there's cigarettes in the house, I'll smoke them all, and beer, I'll drink it all, and even to the point of getting drunk and puking.

But if it's not there, I am not going out to buy either cigarettes or alcohol. My laziness is stronger than any addictions.

In this sense, I am not a compulsive gambler, nor an alcoholic, nor a smoker. But when I happen to be around people who smoke or drink, I become one. With trading, having to handle and monitor an account for automated trading, with prices moving and all that, provided me with endless temptations to place discretionary trades, and, just like for smoking and drinking, I cannot resist them.

If I am trading someone else's account these problems do not happen - as long as I am doing it for people who know what they are doing. If I were to trade my parents' account, I would certainly relapse into compulsive gambling, because they know nothing about what I am doing.

I would need to have a joint account with some other automated trader, who knows when to tell me "no", and in that case, I would be able to make money with automated trading, because I would not interfere with my systems. But such an arrangement is impossible. It's either my account - and I'll blow it out - or it's your account, and then it won't be my account and I won't have the advantages of having my own account (freedom).
 
reasoning about empires falling

Yesterday, I went to sleep with this thought. I had watched the documentary "history of britain", and I fell asleep wondering: what is the mechanism by which a conqueror falls and gets conquered?

I've been wondering and there must be a logical solution to this question. The Celts get conquered by the Romans, but then, hundreds of years later, the Anglo-Saxons take them over, and then come the Vikings and kick the Saxons to the West, and then come the French from below, and then, since then, no one else and the English stay in power. But the same happened in every nation.

Now, to explain this logically, I must first state some points. It's not enough to be the most evolved society in order to stay on top. I mean: the barbarians were savages but they kicked the Romans asses. The Romans were less evolved than the Greeks, but conquered them.

So staying on top is not just a matter of culture and not even of technological evolution.

It's a mix of factors but mostly: how many people you have, and how desperate/violent they are.

Many people but divided won't be a problem. Many people united, desperate are going to make a difference, even if technlogically inferior - and that must have been the case with the barbarians, and all the stuff that went on for centuries in England and France and other parts of the Roman Empire.

Anyway, it begins like this: the Romans are not too civilized, violent, organized and many, and technologically advanced, so they conquer the Celts. Then, during the centuries, the Romans have a good time and get softer all the time, but manage to keep the barbarians under control through organization, technology, and so on. But then it gets to a point, where there's just too many soft people within the empire, and too many desperate savages outside of it, so the Roman Empire begins to fall, because everyone in it has gotten soft.

Then, for example the Saxons, the tough guys of the moment, conquer England, and stay there for a few hundred years, but then they get soft, too, and the Vikings come in and kick their ass. Simply because the desperate people have an incentive to move and look for better places, and the people who are doing well, just stay where they are, but if you're doing well, in some way, you're also getting soft, because you're going to be less willing to start a fight.

Migrations today still happen, just the same. From the less evolved countries to the richer and more advanced countries. Just like the law of communicating vessels or whatever it's called. If you are hungry you go where there's food and so on.

How come today, there's no disruption of nations and empires? How come the Chinese don't overthrow the Russians, and the Mexicans don't overthrow the Americans? And the North Africans don't overthrow the Southern Europeans?

This is going to be the next question. However, it is clear now why empires rise and fall. It basically happens according to the law of communicating vessels.

In the same way, within any society, the poor are encouraged to get mean and dishonest and grab some of the money that the rich have. And the rich try to keep their money, but it's hard to deny your money to a poor, when you have a lot of it, and when he's threatening you with a knife. You'd rather give it to him. He's more willing to fight for it than you. So money and happiness make you weaker, and lack of them make him stronger. Again, communicating vessels, that ensure that sooner or later the water gets even and leveled.

Just like the King in France, he kept on ruling those below him, but when the power wasn't there any more, for some reason, the water overflew him and he got his head cut off.

Sooner or later the barriers keeping the differences in place, and the poor in check, disappear, and when the barriers disappear, those who have money and happiness lose it and those who don't, get some of it. Everything gets mixed and you have a new people, made by the previous rich who got ****ed over a little bit, and the previous poor who got a little more money.

Until comes a new people from somewhere else.

So, why isn't this happening today? Why nations do not fall, invaded by the Chinese or the Mexicans?

I have to study this further, on youtube or somewhere else. It's a fascinating question. I guess it has to do with some of these things:

1) communications are not what they used to be: we know where all the new "barbarians" and how many they are
2) the new barbarians live within states, that keep them in: it's not like chinese leaders say "there's wealth in Japan, let's go get it". If they did, they could conquer Japan in a matter of days - however they don't, and I wonder why.

In fact, there is an example of this happening, with saddam hussein and kuwait. The World stopped him a few months later. So maybe the Chinese know that the world would unite against them, but I don't know if this is enough.... many many questions.
 
starting to trade again: forced by IB

Here I am, wiring money again. Now they won't give me any history unless my account exceeds the minimum trading requirement, so I can't even do my tests - which I cannot give up. So now I'll basically have to wire enough money to trade, and once I'll have done that, the temptation will be there again. I'll just wire the minimum, and trade the GBL and ZN alone. Hopefully that way I won't be tempted to trade EUR and other futures - since I can't do it anyway. But I can, too, with intraday half margin. I could even trade the CL with just 2500 dollars. That really sucks.

Hopefully, I will resist the temptation. But it will be hard. You see, one day I will see any currency at -2%, and it will look like an irresistible opportunity to trade LONG. And then, even if it worked, that will be the start of the end: I'll get increasingly confident and within two weeks I'll blow out my account.

I would need someone in Italy, a relative, to add his money to my account, and force me to do what the other guys are doing in the other account: not trade discretionary because this is not all your money. But it won't work, because no one is going to wire money into my account: not a relative, not anyone from t2w, which i wouldn't accept anyway. The best would be to ask Dan, my friend, the unemployed one I was trying to teach or rather to learn how to trade discretionary (not from me, since i can't). But he's unemployed and has zero money, just debts.

This is going to end really badly. Money is wired already, to the intermediate bank, then to IB from there. GBL and ZN will resume trading automated. Then I'll spot an occasion, I will go for it, sooner or later I will give in to the temptation. Then if I win, I'll do more, out of confidence. If I'll lose, I'll trade more, out of revenge. Either way, I'll blow out my account again, as I've been doing for the past 13 years.

It's just like with women. Once you get into it (emotionally or physically), you're doomed. You can't get out of it until you leave them or they leave you. You're in for an emotional roller-coaster from the moment something starts with a woman. You're not going to get out of it unscarred, and if you don't get out of it, it still an ongoing addiction, that will suck the life out of you for years.
 
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Re: starting to trade again: forced by IB

Here I am, wiring money again. Now they won't give me any history unless my account exceeds the minimum trading requirement, so I can't even do my tests - which I cannot give up. So now I'll basically have to wire enough money to trade, and once I'll have done that, the temptation will be there again. I'll just wire the minimum, and trade the GBL and ZN alone. Hopefully that way I won't be tempted to trade EUR and other futures - since I can't do it anyway. But I can, too, with intraday half margin. I could even trade the CL with just 2500 dollars. That really sucks.

Hopefully, I will resist the temptation. But it will be hard. You see, one day I will see any currency at -2%, and it will look like an irresistible opportunity to trade LONG. And then, even if it worked, that will be the start of the end: I'll get increasingly confident and within two weeks I'll blow out my account.

I would need someone in Italy, a relative, to add his money to my account, and force me to do what the other guys are doing in the other account: not trade discretionary because this is not all your money. But it won't work, because no one is going to wire money into my account: not a relative, not anyone from t2w, which i wouldn't accept anyway. The best would be to ask Dan, my friend, the unemployed one I was trying to teach or rather to learn how to trade discretionary (not from me, since i can't). But he's unemployed and has zero money, just debts.

This is going to end really badly. Money is wired already, to the intermediate bank, then to IB from there. GBL and ZN will resume trading automated. Then I'll spot an occasion, I will go for it, sooner or later I will give in to the temptation. Then if I win, I'll do more, out of confidence. If I'll lose, I'll trade more, out of revenge. Either way, I'll blow out my account again, as I've been doing for the past 13 years.

It's just like with women. Once you get into it (emotionally or physically), you're doomed. You can't get out of it until you leave them or they leave you. You're in for an emotional roller-coaster from the moment something starts with a woman. You're not going to get out of it unscarred, and if you don't get out of it, it still an ongoing addiction, that will suck the life out of you for years.

Have you ever had professional help for your addictive nature? Anyone who has addiction or compulsive traits should not be anywhere near a trading screen. You're destined to be financially very worse off in the future i'm imagining if you can't get control of your addiction to gambling. I still maintain you are of a personality that shouldn't be trading at all, even mechanically with an EA.
 
Re: starting to trade again: forced by IB

Also the title to your last post demonstrates you're still not taking responsibility for certain character flaws. IB aren't forcing you to trade Travis, you're the one doing that.
 
Re: starting to trade again: forced by IB

Have you ever had professional help for your addictive nature? Anyone who has addiction or compulsive traits should not be anywhere near a trading screen. You're destined to be financially very worse off in the future i'm imagining if you can't get control of your addiction to gambling. I still maintain you are of a personality that shouldn't be trading at all, even mechanically with an EA.

Yes, I get your points, very respectfully made, so that I don't get offended. Look, I've already created 60 automated systems, most of them pretty promising, so there's no way I can quit this endeavour now. As I said before, there's two people in me: the junkie and the hard-worker, creator of profitable automated trading systems. One way or another I will get to the bottom of this thing. It's pretty clear what the path is and I must find a way not to fall into the trap again:


1) I monitor prices for automated systems - I can't quit this effort
2) I see opportunities (big falls, extremely oversold conditions)

So far there is no problem, which arises next:

3) I seize them (via discretionary trading)
4) regardless of how the discretionary trades went, I spin out of control. If I fail, I take it personally and engage in revenge trading, and blow out the account. If I succeed, I get euphoric, and trade again, carelessly, until I fail, and then follows revenge trading again, and I blow out the account again. Each time I engage in discretionary trading, within a month at the most, I have blown out my account.

I must find a way to be able to monitor the markets without engaging in discretionary trading.

As I wrote before, I cannot do just paper trading, or IB will close my account. On top of it, I can't even download last week's closes (needed for my systems) unless there's enough money in the account to trade. It told me today for the first time. It must be a new policy. I was otherwise going to stay away from trading for as long as all summer, hoping they'd let me keep my account open despite not trading because they thought everyone was on vacation. Because they do have a policy of closing idle accounts.

So pretty much I am being forced to trade, in order to keep my account open and be able to forward test my systems.

I didn't say I am forced to trade discretionary, nor that I am forced to trade a lot, but I must allow the systems to at least place some trades every month, which will most likely bring me money.

Now I only have to be careful to not spot any discretionary opportunities, and if I do, I must not even dream of seizing them.

I am here to talk and to reason and improve my trading. You can't tell me I have to quit trading altogether. Otherwise I wouldn't be writing here in the first place.
 
Re: starting to trade again: forced by IB

Get your friend to do it for you. Just give him the systems after you've backtested them and tell him what to do and what results (forward testing, live trading etc) you need to see.
 
Oh, that's impossible. He's almost illiterate - he didn't even go to highschool. Besides, even most college graduates couldn't do it. On top of it, it's not a great idea to just give your systems away like that.



Anyway, I've been thinking more and more about it and you know what the problem is? That a bunch of reasonable steps lead to an overall unprofitable behaviour.

Does it make sense if you spot a highly probably profitable trade to make it? Yes, it does.

But if you felt the CL hit a bottom at -3%, and now it falls to -4%, isn't it more likely than before to be the bottom and doesn't it therefore make sense to increase your bet? Yes: you're more certain of the bounce, so you bet even more.

It all seems logical until here. And on most occasions you will make money. Most of the times I make money, and even without doubling up.

Yet here is what happens sometimes.

The CL will fall 3%, you will bet one contract. Then it falls to 4%, and you will bet another contract. But then it falls all the way to 5% (just a hypothesis, as it's almost impossible). Once I've kept on doubling up all the way to 8 contracts, and came out of it with a profit.

However, sometimes you don't have that capital. And after 3 contracts and it keeps on falling, you get a margin call (also because the intraday half margin ends). So, even if it goes your way later, you're out of the market, and you've lost a 1000 or more. Then you're upset, and keep the positions open overnight, hoping to make it back with the remaining contracts, but the next day it just keeps on falling another 3%. And that's how you blew out your account.

A bunch of reasonable steps that made you blow out your account. I don't see any madness in the above steps. You slowly increase your bets to the point that you can't get out of it alive, to the point that if things go wrong, you're dead. It's almost the same way that I am increasing the dosage of xanax. I can't sleep, so I take more, then I can't sleep, and I take more.... take more... then sooner or later I'll have to stop. And that day, I'll have to take a huge loss.
 
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2) I see opportunities (big falls, extremely oversold conditions)

To me that's an opportunity to sell, not to buy.

Does it make sense if you spot a highly probably profitable trade to make it? Yes, it does.

But if you felt the CL hit a bottom at -3%, and now it falls to -4%, isn't it more likely than before to be the bottom and doesn't it therefore make sense to increase your bet? Yes: you're more certain of the bounce, so you bet even more.

It all seems logical until here.


These trades are not highly probable or logical to me either, if it's down 3% it's weak, and i expect it to be down again tomorrow and possibly over that whole week/month.
 
Re: starting to trade again: forced by IB

I am here to talk and to reason and improve my trading. You can't tell me I have to quit trading altogether. Otherwise I wouldn't be writing here in the first place.

Ok that's fine, but until you stop doing the same cycle over and over again i maintain you need to close your trading account. If you can't just leave your money with IB so it's dormant while you test your systems (which you're also now addicted to, 60 is overkill, why not take the best 5?), then how can you expect to have any kind of trading discipline when you're under pressure?

Why don't you promise to yourself and everyone here, that if you use any of those funds for discretionary trading which are there in order to keep your account open, you will close down your trading for a minimum of 3 months??
 
Ok, that's constructive advice, and, as usual, very respectful disagreement with what I say: I can handle such criticism.

Once again, leave the my 60 systems alone, because they're perfectly fine as they are. I worked my ass off for 5 years on them, and just because I am a compulsive gambler you shouldn't summarily dismiss everything I do. Obviously I have a lot of qualities, that in some cases derive from being compulsive. I've always been compulsive in my quest to improve myself.

Regarding your suggestion for a solemn promise to the forum, I am glad you're thinking of ways to help me - I want to be helped (not by the psychiatrist - forget that), because I do want to make money, very badly. And in fact that is probably one thing that's been adding to my compulsive drive to trade - the desire to make money.


Regarding the solemn promise, though, if you go back through my 3000 posts, you will see places where I say "I am an idiot", "never again", "this is the last time". So, it won't work. Forget the solemn promises on the journal - they haven't kept me from blowing out my account five more times, live, on this very journal.

We have to find another solution. Maybe I'll mature, but I doubt it. It's as if there were a different person inside me, that takes over, once I am in front of the trading platform, and my compulsiveness is fueled by some frustration: a recurring thought of having been emotionally abused as a child and adolescent by my father, a taxi driver who was rude and didn't say goodbye when I got off the cab, etcetera. Such trivial events are enough to trigger frustration in my mind, which I escape by placing a trade. I also escape boredom by placing a trade. I pretty much recur to trading to solve every single problem in my life. Even a trade that went wrong - I try to solve that problem by placing another trade immediately thereafter ("revenge trading").

We have to find a mechanical way of keeping me from relapsing into compulsive gambling. Just like I don't keep beer or cigarettes in my house or I'd smoke them. We must find a way for me to not be able to trade - and yet I have to monitor my trading systems on a daily basis. There's also other people's money on the line. I don't have a problem with other people's accounts though. Anyway, I want to keep on trading, because it's the only hope of escaping from this bank I am working at. I don't like being an employee.

Anyway, one good first step is to only have 2500 in my account, which will be the case. I could have wired more, but I won't wire more to the account, because this way I can only trade one future (with overnight margin), the GBL basically. Actually I can trade some of the currencies as well, but I'll try to forget that.
 
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Once again, leave the my 60 systems alone, because they're perfectly fine as they are. I worked my ass off for 5 years on them, and just because I am a compulsive gambler you shouldn't summarily dismiss everything I do. Obviously I have a lot of qualities, that in some cases derive from being compulsive. I've always been compulsive in my quest to improve myself.

I wasn't questioning their quality, however i do question why you need so many??
 
We have to find another solution. Maybe I'll mature, but I doubt it. It's as if there were a different person inside me, that takes over, once I am in front of the trading platform, and my compulsiveness is fueled by some frustration: a recurring thought of having been emotionally abused as a child and adolescent by my father, a taxi driver who was rude and didn't say goodbye when I got off the cab, etcetera. Such trivial events are enough to trigger frustration in my mind, which I escape by placing a trade. I also escape boredom by placing a trade. I pretty much recur to trading to solve every single problem in my life. Even a trade that went wrong - I try to solve that problem by placing another trade immediately thereafter ("revenge trading").


As we all know, trading is a mental game (presuming your strategy already has a statistical edge), and with the above issues you stated which come into play during trading, other than cognitive therapy (you can condition your mind yourself with various self-help cds, books etc, and they're not all a load of ********!) i see no other way to overcome this. It's not like you haven't been trying, 13 years is testament to that. You need to look at actually dealing with your psychological issues, not just putting up a mechanical barrier between you and the market, because one day you'll climb over and undo all the good work you've done the previous weeks/months if you haven't dealt with these. This is just my take on it anyway.
 
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