Message For Ftse Traders......

[rnicoll]

Don't talk to me about options. I keep getting told "you're a scientist, you'll love options trading" but I seem to have a hole in my brain where the required grey gloop should be.

They gave me months of headaches. Then one day I was looking at a future I was trading as a hedge, and went "Y'know, what I really want here is an option!", and it all clicked. Not what I normally trade by any means, but they're rather useful in some cases.

For the automated stuff, I'm focusing on plain old currencies. The liquidity is FANTASTIC.

Now out of the short for 27. I've had a good day but know enough to recognise it as underpinned by statistical noise.

Thanks all for the interesting words today.

No problem, thanks for distracting me from the stuff I should have been doing :-D

 

[RedGreenBen]

Problem with Fourier transforms is that they're meant for continuous data. So, lets say I do a transform on a year's sample data; that data is still contaminated by data over more than the current year. Someone with a better signals processing background than me might be able to filter out the longer term trends, but it's beyond my maths

Been there, done that (badly), gone away to think about if for a few months! There is also the difficulty of the "late GMT lull" when it all goes a bit flat.

I've an alarm at 4440 that might get me interested in a long as there is 'enough room' above, but apart from that I am definitely done for the day.

Ben

 

[rnicoll]

I've an alarm at 4440 that might get me interested in a long as there is 'enough room' above, but apart from that I am definitely done for the day.

Watching the market go past 4490. I'd like to say I'm screaming "WHAT ARE YOU THINKING???", but to be honest that was Tuesday, this is more just mild despair.

 

[RedGreenBen]

Watching the market go past 4490. I'd like to say I'm screaming "WHAT ARE YOU THINKING???", but to be honest that was Tuesday, this is more just mild despair.

Squeezed 20 out of it but now I am definitely out of here. I've just had a new fridge-freezer delivered and life doesn't get more exciting than that! - Ben

 

[rnicoll]

Squeezed 20 out of it but now I am definitely out of here. I've just had a new fridge-freezer delivered and life doesn't get more exciting than that! - Ben

Fridge freezer? BAH! I just had 10 litres of sugar syrup delivered.

 

[RedGreenBen]

Fridge freezer? BAH! I just had 10 litres of sugar syrup delivered.

OK, I'll bite.... What the hell do you do with 10 litres of sugar syrup?

 

[rnicoll]

OK, I'll bite.... What the hell do you do with 10 litres of sugar syrup?

2 litres for someone else, but mostly it goes under my bed and goes in my coffee over the next 6-12 months. I have a kilogram of coffee coming tomorrow, and there's about 100 tea bags in packs of 15, behind me...

So, the DJ is dropping like stone, the BoE has just announced a drop to the lowest interest rate EVER in a desperate bid to get people buying crud, I'm considering it a toss-up whether Game or Boots next announce problems, and the market merrily marches upwards.

Edit: FLAVOURED sugar syrup. Knew I forgot something.

 

[Dentalfloss]

an update to yesterday"s chart of the ftse.a slightly different veiw
this is a 1 box reversal chart.50 point box size.hilo daily data
so you can see we are in an uptrend,this has been correcting.we can see the support level,in green at 4450.this area got triggered today.support came in today near this level
there is also a major support level at 4250 area.the blue line.interestingly ,the last negative signal.a double-bottom break was given on dec 2nd 08
so,for the breakout /upwards to fail there needs to be a print at 4200
anyway ,non farm payrolls tomorrow,although the obama stimulus package is the more important item
nyone got any veiws.?

 

[Dentalfloss]

ftse 250 chart. "the riskier market"
an interesting chart.box size is 100 points.daily data.hilo
interesting bit is .price has just breached a major downtrend line.it is retracing.uptrend moved and got sent back.there is a brick wall at 6900 area.the last negative signal was given on 21 nov 08

 

[Dentalfloss]

market breadth chart
bullish percent for the ftse 100
this chart shows the percentage of stocks in the ftse 100 index that have a bullish ie a double-top chart pattern on the 1% box size chart.there is a rising column,but it is in the overbought area

 

[Dentalfloss]

chart of the ftse250.could hve driven some traders crazy and broke.150 point box size.3 box reversal.hilo.daily data
6900 resistance/support area shown in green.also 5550/grey line showing the major support area.so there is a 1400 point range with no clear direction.approx 20-25% value of the index

 

[RedGreenBen]

Selling @ 4460ish given the chance.

But really just trying an experiment to see how well this thread is populated by the 'all day, intra-day crowd'.

Ben

PS rnicoll... Oh, a coffee habit.

 

[Chelski]

Selling @ 4460ish given the chance.

But really just trying an experiment to see how well this thread is populated by the 'all day, intra-day crowd'.

Ben

PS rnicoll... Oh, a coffee habit.

Don't think we will see much action before Non Farms, may get some direction from that and then into US Open. Tren is down but only 30 or so range so far.

 

[RedGreenBen]

Don't think we will see much action before Non Farms, may get some direction from that and then into US Open. Tren is down but only 30 or so range so far.

Hi Chelski.

Agree with all of that (-555k on NFPs and I win a t-shirt, but that's another story).

Snatching a few off the level I've already mentioned but otherwise flat, getting more action from FX.

Ben

 

[Chelski]

Hi Chelski.

Agree with all of that (-555k on NFPs and I win a t-shirt, but that's another story).

Snatching a few off the level I've already mentioned but otherwise flat, getting more action from FX.

Ben

Do you trade FTSE cash or futures?

 

[wallstreet1928]

nice charts dentist..........

 

[RedGreenBen]

Do you trade FTSE cash or futures?

Futures

And I trade off the chart (best way to avoid looking at PnL!) so generally mean mid-prices.

Ben

 

[rnicoll]

Selling @ 4460ish given the chance.

But really just trying an experiment to see how well this thread is populated by the 'all day, intra-day crowd'.

Ben

PS rnicoll... Oh, a coffee habit.

*shambles into the thread* Braaaaains...

Was up until 3am wanting to hunt down Microsoft employees. Windows has decided, 11 months after I got this computer, that my copy of Windows needs activation. Again. Not because I've changed any hardware, no, just because it can. The fact that people continue to use this lump of fail for anything but the most non-critical of uses continues to amaze me. I've got an unlimited supply of licenses (MSDNAA site license), but it OFFENDS me. I don't want to have to apply for a new license, or spend 15 minutes arguing with their phone system, I want to get some work done.

Right, on to the trading. I'm currently seeing a 11 point loss on my pet option, but that's up on open and it's a LONG way up on yesterday. dentist007's analysis is interesting (and extremely well done), although personally I think technical analysis is primarily of use to verify fundamental analysis. Having it conflict with my own fundamental analysis is a little worrying, but I still believe in my own analysis. I'm more or less of the opinion that the economy is in a worse state than the market reflects, and am waiting patiently for the market to realise this.

How's everyone else doing today?

 

[RedGreenBen]

How's everyone else doing today?

Hi rnicoll.

Short off 4461(.6 if anyone is interested!). Wondering what happened at 11:20.

Ben

 

[Dentalfloss]

too dangerous to trade on fundamentals only
especially now