andycan
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Rhody,
I had to read your reply quite a few times before I could comprehend what you were saying. I think you broadly supported what I said. If that’s wrong, blame my Arts background.
This is Taleb’s favourite topic, isn’t it?
Thank you for the reply.
Andy,
I reckon your spot-on on both counts. One could “guesstimate” parameters statistically (possibly very accurately) but I suspect it would be the timing which will be the killer, eg index up 200 points within two months. End of first month, down 100 points, end of second month up 300 points (from previous month). Net equals up 200 points as predicted. Problem is, does one have the nerve, deep pockets and conviction to sustain an (interim) 100 point loss?
If markets were predictable, there would be no market (everyone would be on the same side). Or perhaps only a few can predict the market.
Grant.
grant
indeed market predictability is an art form, it requires the participant to have a very deep understanding of what markets do, now this is based on the reference that all traders are small traders
but the goal post shifts when the said trader/s are big and powerfull, powerfull enough to make an impression in the markets, then one is talking of a completely different approach,
the likes of you and me is to figure what these guys are doing
they dont need to figure what we are doing, do you see?