market direction

[N Rothschild]

yes there was one day higher in volume, hence i said it was the "2nd" highest volume day since October 2008, which it is, fact.. what are you debating here?

you claimed the volume was not unusual for an expiration, clearly not the case.

you said the GS news had NO effect on market direction, well i was watching the t/s and matrix as that news broke and it was like an elephant had just trampled everyone as it sold off 20 handles. compare todays action with the action we have come accustomed to in the last 10 weeks or so, i would say yes that was alot different. As i said before if you were really trading the 87 crash (which i highly doubt) you you see the danger in this market. vix at record lows, options speculation at highs not seen since the tech bubble, nasdaq ticks peeked the other day at levels not seen since the tech bubble aswell, the market climbing day by day on no volume, never pulling back, ignoring all fundamentals and even technical. i would say thats prime disaster material.

then news breaks that basically God himself as far as the market is concerned, is being done with mortgage fraud. (you could write a your PhD thesis on the effect this could have on markets)

well im not sure how you don't see the potential risk or anything unusual with your alleged 23 years of trading experience.

 

[N Rothschild]

i) tell us what you were looking at and we'll tell you if there's anything there
ii) thinking you can tall the tops/bottoms is EXPENSIVE

i disagree, the majority of the markets ive called in this thread has been at an extreme top or bottom, and has then gone on to consolidate after said call, then move off's those low/highs.

and no im not going to tell you what im looking at

 

[N Rothschild]

time for some charts,

ok Live cattle, a real thorn in my side..refuses to sell off but still holding this short as hell! i may even add to this pos next week.

 

[N Rothschild]

copper, looking good so far, down about 10c (200 ticks) since the sell area i mentioned during the week. still holding short

 

[N Rothschild]

corn, probably been the best market this week, up 5.28% , 72 ticks ,continuing to hold long!

 

[N Rothschild]

natty gass, actually slightly down on this after a pretty choppy week. still confident of a rally and holding long

 

[N Rothschild]

the great british pound.

bit of a down week, but still up healthily over all..gona see how this week play out as i think there is plenty more upside in the pound, but..this GS stuff worry's me.

 

[N Rothschild]

euro, same story as bp, see how this week plays out.

 

[cr6196]

i have often wondered if markets can predict the future and the events that come about causing these moves were the result of the market knowing they were going to happen? total rubbish of course, but food for thought on this Friday night for some of you philosophical minds

just to add something, i've looked into this a bit...if you overlay earnings moves on a price chart of some stocks you can see in some cases that price has moved before earnings (as in price has moved down and then earnings come in lower) a month or two before the report...in other cases price moves start a month or two after the report...so it is confusing, in some cases the market has extreme foresight in others it fails miserably and lacks any sense...i would say it depends on what the instrument your looking at is, what the other people looking at it are thinking and who they are.

This is backed up by multiple academic studies (montier) that show that in instances when there has been a clear trend in fundementals e.g earnings moving lower for consecutive quarters that positive changes are consistently underestimated and vice versa, that gives some indication that the underlying sentiment is a major factor.

 

[N Rothschild]

ten year notes, nice little pop up for the week, still holding long

 

[N Rothschild]

the ES, well well..went a bit offside from the start of the week but came roaring back to end the week slightly up. good sell off from those potential highs i mentioned. holding this short like a ninja death grip

 

[N Rothschild]

thats it for today folk, pretty pleased with this week over all.

bought crude yesterday aswell, post a chart in a bit

 

[N Rothschild]

just to add, if you were fading all these calls, you would be in a world of hurt.

howd'ya like them apples trader_panties?

 

[robster970]

Good God! Go away for a week to the middle of nowhere and come back to find out that modern civilisation is on the brink of collapse

 

[N Rothschild]

with the list of banks/country's lining up to sue goldman, this could potential be quite positive for euro/pound with a few billion flowing back into european/uk banks if they are successful. so its possible we might not see the usual dollar flight to safety is US stocks start to get clipped

 

[N Rothschild]

on the other hand this volcano could cause some serious economic problems! thats twice now iceland has screwed us, time for war! lol

 

[fiatmoney]

Yes seen a good headline this weekend "Send us the cash not the ash"

on the other hand this volcano could cause some serious economic problems! thats twice now iceland has screwed us, time for war! lol

 

[MrGecko]

i disagree, the majority of the markets ive called in this thread has been at an extreme top or bottom, and has then gone on to consolidate after said call, then move off's those low/highs.

and no im not going to tell you what im looking at

Good for you mate, keep it up!

 

[N Rothschild]

80 point gap down in gbp

 

[robster970]

Be interesting to see if ES gaps down too. Having gone through news, etc this evening I don't think tomorrow will be pretty.