market direction

[N Rothschild]

serisouly thinking about dumping my crude hedge here for some tasty premium, what that means is i would need to put in a hard stop on the futures. but the puts i bought this morning are up almost 20%

 

[MrGecko]

Do you ever use Calendar/Crack spreads in a situation like this?

 

[N Rothschild]

i dont no, im not really very sophisticated in my trading in terms of instruments to be perfectly honest. these synthetics may sound exotic but there no really, my broker deals with all my posistions. i just call the market direction, its what im good at. stick to what your good at, leave what your **** at to someone else

 

[N Rothschild]

black monday, what do we think? i would say its possible, these markets are absolutely over cooked to the extreme, been climbing and climbing on vapors for months now, prim crash material IMO

 

[Benton D Struckcheon]

Nah. Volume's not unusual for an options expiration day. Also, the day after one is usually in the opposite direction. Over the past year, 10 out of 12 times the Monday after went in the opposite direction (just did a quick check of the daily chart for the past year for this).

 

[N Rothschild]

joint 2nd highest volume day since oct 08, no not unusual at all. (ES)

 

[N Rothschild]

some good volume after hours there, no longer joint 2nd, but 2nd biggest volume day since october 2008

 

[Benton D Struckcheon]

TOS is showing volumes in Feb that were roughly equal to today, both in SPY and ES.
Either way, I was surprised when someone told me the news (GS), checked the charts, and found no evidence that it affected market direction. It was a down day to start with, and acted for all the world like a normal down day, breaking for good at around 10:30 or 11 AM, and then going into position squaring mode in the afternoon session, as normally happens on a Friday. I remember very distinctly the Friday before the Monday of 1987, and when it was over, it felt like something different had happened. On Wall Street Week, a popular TV show back then, Marty Zweig was asked if it was a crash, and he said "Yes" without hesitation.
This doesn't feel the same at all.

 

[N Rothschild]

ok so the constant grinding higher tick by tick on no volume day after day doesn't remind you of the 87 crash? or the tech bubble for that matter? i know a few people in the pits that might disagree with you on that one im afraid

 

[N Rothschild]

as for no evidence GS effected market direction? are you serious?

must have been just me, but im pretty sure the sp sold off about 20 handles on the breaking of the news (after quietly trading sideways to slightly higher)

 

[N Rothschild]

where you even trading in the 87 crash, serisouly? as those posts dont resemble someone who has been trading for 23 years, sorry.

 

[Benton D Struckcheon]

My impression of the day was very different. Also, Feb 5 had more volume on both SPY and ES (according to TOS), and there were two days just before that date that came very close.
I'll leave it at that. Monday will tell.

 

[N Rothschild]

well i would say its that sort of complacency which is why this market is so at risk right now. and im afraid your TOS is wrong, check cme site. im not saying there will be a crash, its up for debate. but to come in and say there was nothing "unusual" today is just daft.

 

[MrGecko]

re: Black Monday - this is painfully simple but equally pertinent - keep an eye on the weekend newspapers.

 

[N Rothschild]

http://www.businessinsider.com/henr...gation-against-goldman-seems-very-weak-2010-4

interesting article. if the case is very week, GS stock is 10% off one day only

 

[MrGecko]

GS getting away with it could be the best outcome.. it will increase the pressure for regulatory reform, and gives us a second bite at getting in* at better levels

*at taking positions to suit

 

[N Rothschild]

seems to have been some huge insider trading going on before this announcement.

which leads me to ask this.

earlier in the day i said i think the market is at a major turning point and i would stake all my credibility on it. a few hours that turn came (whether it remains the turning point still remains to be seen).

now, was this blind luck that my call for a market top just happened to be at the same time as the GS news?

or, did the market know before hand and was telling me threw the things i look at to come to this conclusion even if i didn't know what it was exactly?

tough one isnt it, im not to sure myself.

i have often wondered if markets can predict the future and the events that come about causing these moves were the result of the market knowing they were going to happen? total rubbish of course, but food for thought on this Friday night for some of you philosophical minds

 

[blancspa]

nothing new
the more important question I would ask is: why is it hapening?

 

[MrGecko]

i) tell us what you were looking at and we'll tell you if there's anything there
ii) thinking you can tall the tops/bottoms is EXPENSIVE

 

[Benton D Struckcheon]

I am completely flummoxed.
I just checked your chart again, and it is exactly the same volume chart I see on TOS. The line you drew shows that there was higher volume in Feb, and it shows the two prior days close by that were almost equal in volume.
So, what in Heaven's name are you on about? Your own chart shows exactly the same thing my TOS charts show, and so does the line you drew on your own chart.