TD,
As you consider a stop above the pin too high (70-80 pips), what are your targets on this trade?
Thanks,
Newk
P.S. Keep up the good work, follow this thread daily!
Hi Newk,
It's not that the stop is too high but that it gives an unfavourable R:R in relation to the first problem area.
I don't like to talk in terms of targets because most traders associate TARGETS with EXITS.
I prefer to think of PROBLEM AREAS. They are problem areas because they are areas that the price may stall or reverse at.
I do not blindly exit once they are reached but I watch the price closely for signs that it may turn against me.
On my chart, the entry is at 325.4 bid.
The first problem area is at 319.8 bid which is 320.8 offered.
The distance between the entry and the first problem area is therefore 46 ticks.
Now a stop above the pin would be a risk of 91 ticks. This gives us a reward to risk of 0.5:1 which is not good.
If we put a stop above the left eye, the risk becomes 44 ticks which improves the R:R to just over 1:1. This is better although many traders wouldn't even play for that.
I don't normally like to place stops above or below the eyes. I like to put them above or below the pins themselves as this is, in my opinion, the only place you are truly wrong when you trade the setup. As explained before, the strategy is very discretionary and if you look at an hourly chart for this market you will see it fell very sharply into the close. As a result I am looking for momentum to the downside and consider a break above the left eye to seriously negate this thinking.