You're looking at it in a very one dimensional way. On news/report release days orders are 'stacked' around a certain price(s) to take advantage both ways (whipsaws), waiting around for a 'sudden' direction and then trying to get in on it is total Tom.
You're looking at it in a very one dimensional way. On news/report release days orders are 'stacked' around a certain price(s) to take advantage both ways (whipsaws), waiting around for a 'sudden' direction and then trying to get in on it is total Tom.
Do any of u guys understand a straight line move?
Heres a classic example of market being on its lows, US Treasuries and German Govt Bond Futures.
News comes out and there is an immediate correction to the upside.
There was no pre news market action suggesting the market would go up as the market was actually on its lowest point - so please no more ****e about this point (ie the market will tell you in advance - rubbish, we would have seen buying pre figure and we did not - end of discussion).
The News made the market rally, and it did not reterace it went up almost a whole point with no effective retaracement at all.
DONT DELUDE YOURSELVES ABOUT THE WAY MARKETS CAN REACT
Heres a classic example of market being on its lows, US Treasuries and German Govt Bond Futures.
News comes out and there is an immediate correction to the upside.
There was no pre news market action suggesting the market would go up as the market was actually on its lowest point - so please no more ****e about this point (ie the market will tell you in advance - rubbish, we would have seen buying pre figure and we did not - end of discussion).
The News made the market rally, and it did not reterace it went up almost a whole point with no effective retaracement at all.
DONT DELUDE YOURSELVES ABOUT THE WAY MARKETS CAN REACT
mp6140
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see, what i didnt want is happening - - - - it took you all day to find something that MAY disagree with what i said, as i have not charted it to look and confirm the veracity of your statement, but ill bet that the prior days movement was DOWN, which you SAID by stating that it was at its LOWEST POINT, AND THAT SIMPLY PROVES WHAT I SAY --- the index was DROPPED so that there was upside room for its rally ! Whether or not there was ANY pre release movement was probably simply WAITING for the news, but the PREVIOUS DAYS MOVEMENT HAD ALREADY SPELT OUT WHAT THE INDEX WAS GOING TO DO !@
PLEASE police, I TRADE every timeframe and my correct trades percentage should verify that im either the luckiest person in the room for a month and a half, or MAYBE, just MAYBE -- i KNOW what im talking about !
without even realizing it, you have FULLY agreed with what i said, which simply proves that we look at things differently, so please, while i mean NO argument, understand im simply trying to get you to look at things in a different way, and since that WAY has been proven correct time after time, perhaps you should just glance at it and not take it as a personal affront, which it was NEVER meant to be !
Im sorry police, i just happen to be very good at what i do which is why I RUN THE SHOP, not work at it !
mp
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Of course you can trade news, whther it be econ data release or the latest words from Trichet.
15 years ago you could trade econ data releases by getting prices on the phone and still entering the trade at a good price before the market had updated. Now you should really have an API connected to reuters,bloomberg and dow jones with the trade triggered automtically.
As for the likely reaction this changes all the time. At the moment no one (aprt from the ECB) in reality gives two hoots about inflation and instead it is all about the growth data. So that makes any growth related figs more important than any inflation ones.
Another general rule is if a good dollar figure comes out and say euro dollar is 1.5870 just before the figure and instantly dollars moves to 1.5860. If it goes back above 1.5870 then ignore the figure and get long because it sure aint going down.
Just my 2 cents.
15 years ago you could trade econ data releases by getting prices on the phone and still entering the trade at a good price before the market had updated. Now you should really have an API connected to reuters,bloomberg and dow jones with the trade triggered automtically.
As for the likely reaction this changes all the time. At the moment no one (aprt from the ECB) in reality gives two hoots about inflation and instead it is all about the growth data. So that makes any growth related figs more important than any inflation ones.
Another general rule is if a good dollar figure comes out and say euro dollar is 1.5870 just before the figure and instantly dollars moves to 1.5860. If it goes back above 1.5870 then ignore the figure and get long because it sure aint going down.
Just my 2 cents.
Rubbish!
You are just a bum on a seat. Effective order management/placement is the key to making money, not getting John Cravens News Round 23ms faster than little Johnny.
Really!
clockwork71
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Congrats on the trade.
But let's be realistic here, the average Joe doesn't have that kind of scratch behind him to pay for all of that. And to be honest, it's not necessary.
It all comes down to time frames. You are dealing with micro-moves a lot of the time when news comes out. (Not saying you specifically.) But people have gone on and on about the news, and how that's where the real money is.
I don't trade news, that's a noob's game. If I were on the floor, I still probably wouldn't. (I do admit though, I would watch and see if I notice some kind of pattern,etc.)
I say be smart......stay at home and trade in your pajamas. I figure it works. The last losing week I had was the first one of November. I average 4-6% a month. What I do isn't rocket science. I only pay attention to the news in the sense that I don't want to trade right before it, for example. As far as numbers are concerned, who cares? I don't know what most mean, mainly because it doesn't help my trading. I didn't start trading to get an education, I did it to achieve a lifestyle that was centered around freedom. Something I wouldn't get dickering around a trading floor.
While unfortunately I am not financially free yet, I am certainly on my way. This is a by-product of growing up poor. I didn't have too much to start with. Meanwhile, I have to work sometimes too!
I picked up 70 pips (or so) the other day on gbp/usd, while at the zoo with my son to celebrate his 3rd birthday. To me, that's trading.
Trade to live, never live to trade.
Clockwork
So the market was at it's lows......who needs news to trade lows? Are you sure you are a pro?
mp6140
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================================================================
understand were happy that you saved a trade and firmly believe it was because of your very fast news feed, although we get the same news released on a cable financial station, directly from "the voice behind the curtain" --- it tells us the news as its released !
the wonder of the internet is how competitive it is --- years ago i had to pay $200 per side to trade equities and then the internet came around. Now each broker is trying to undercut the next and below $10 (and yes, i know theres cheaper) will give you every single thing you could ever use for trading, so things are changing nicely !
a tenth of a second is nice to have, but meaningless to those who do not, by the nature of their job, HAVE to run like crazy to make money.
an ideal method, even for prop shops, is to take a core position, be it long or short, and then trade the inevitable retraces while the currency moves up --- it produces returns that are sensational, and the core trade does not even have to be watched till the normal reversal times in the market !
You people are encouraged to speed trade, and while its exciting and keeps the blood moving in the veins, it is FAR from the only way to trade !
All were saying is that the "latest and greatest" may be of no more use to many traders than having your own water buffalo --- works if you have a rice paddy, but is a hell of an expensive pet !
I personally love to teach market movements as relates to coming news, and have well proven it to work, but this is, at least now, not the way you trade and while later on you just may, continue chasing the pip and the bouncing ball ------ at least its fun !
mp
grimweasel
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MP
I kind of get the jist of it now I think. Trouble is now that I get paralaysis when thinking of a move; call it MM induced paranoia?! I'm trying to guess what I think they think I'll be guessing!!
How do we trade the 'event' at the SHI channel top? I guess the top of the channel along with a key S/R level or fib adds weight to a move thru or back down/up a level against the current trend? Do you just trade in the direction of the channel or do you counter trend trade? What are the best signals? Oversold etc on the RSI etc?
I managed to make a few pips this week just setting orders above/below key levels and the tops/bottoms of the channels. Things is that I work in the days so I can't monitor the candles for confirmatory price action as to where the move will take us? I just have to rely on setting orders above/below the key levels. Today I got busted on a few moves with the price whipping about taking out both odrers above and below then hitting the SL (mainly on Gold but also Cable)
Hope everyone is trading well! Been quiet here the past few days...
Grim
I kind of get the jist of it now I think. Trouble is now that I get paralaysis when thinking of a move; call it MM induced paranoia?! I'm trying to guess what I think they think I'll be guessing!!
How do we trade the 'event' at the SHI channel top? I guess the top of the channel along with a key S/R level or fib adds weight to a move thru or back down/up a level against the current trend? Do you just trade in the direction of the channel or do you counter trend trade? What are the best signals? Oversold etc on the RSI etc?
I managed to make a few pips this week just setting orders above/below key levels and the tops/bottoms of the channels. Things is that I work in the days so I can't monitor the candles for confirmatory price action as to where the move will take us? I just have to rely on setting orders above/below the key levels. Today I got busted on a few moves with the price whipping about taking out both odrers above and below then hitting the SL (mainly on Gold but also Cable)
Hope everyone is trading well! Been quiet here the past few days...
Grim
mp6140
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today i didnt like GU, so left the few open trades I had on the H4 to come home to roost and played EURUSD, which was MUCH smoother ride.
at the top of the LRC, i go looking somewhere else normally, because even if its going to be a breakout, it usually doesnt happen for a while and usually involves a large drop before the final run ---- quadruple top sure says it wants to break obviously, but betting on just when could be touchy -- i dont usually bet breakouts, though i will play them when they happen and i happen to see it !
you might investigate the H1 or H4 charts (although they need deep stops) for trading since you cant watch --- if youre using the channels and the zigzags and s+r, you should be able to watch how they react and learn how to trade them --- youll prob get larger drawdowns, but they usually work well, especially if you conservatively use the 50 fib as an exit ! Just remember, 50 is considered conservative, but usually makes a very nice bunch of pips once it gets moving (which is "usually" 12 midnite EDT here, or 6AM for the brits.
take a look --- the zigzags define the last move in the channel, and point the way to the next move !
gl
mp
grimweasel
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Thanks again MP
I will study the charts again for the clues. I have added the Bols as confirmation of certain moves etc (candle outside the bands doesn't seem to last long etc)
When you say 50% fibs do you draw them from the very last H/L move or do you fwd plot ahead to likley areas of S/R and fib from current candle to that level?
I hear what you are saying about the drwadown. Some of the moves of late have not happened and taken down the accnt balance! But then when the moves do come along they are usually quite large and tip the balance again! I just need to start getting more selective on the LRC and ensure I confirm the move etc with oversold/undersold RSI etc?
Grim
I will study the charts again for the clues. I have added the Bols as confirmation of certain moves etc (candle outside the bands doesn't seem to last long etc)
When you say 50% fibs do you draw them from the very last H/L move or do you fwd plot ahead to likley areas of S/R and fib from current candle to that level?
I hear what you are saying about the drwadown. Some of the moves of late have not happened and taken down the accnt balance! But then when the moves do come along they are usually quite large and tip the balance again! I just need to start getting more selective on the LRC and ensure I confirm the move etc with oversold/undersold RSI etc?
Grim
grimweasel
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Is MP still with us? TD said he may have been banned? Anyone know why?
Grim
Grim
mp6140
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let us FOR NOW simply state there are some THIN skinned people in power on this site, and simple TRUTH is a hard concept, it appears ! I pointed out the simple truth, and they banned me for it ! others may argue my thoughts, but ONLY when one touches a nerve so strongly, does the BAN button come forth !
closing OUTSIDE the bols is VERY STRONG medicine, by golly and one of TD's "pinbars" also referred to as a "long legged hammer" (i told TD it was a doji and he "corrected" me, much to my chagrin !")is VERY VERY STRONG MEDICINE INDEED. Uderstant, that in forex, as an indicator of where things will be going one can do MUCH worse than simply by betting on the bols --- especially ON THE 2.5 th day of any move ! the mms will bounce the price around for days, but when all is said and done, its the BOLS that point to the final price before a reversal ! (unfortunately, as you can see by the aqua lines (bols) on the attached chart, where it did point to the final price, it had been running up so fast that it lagged an awful lot, so in this case we have the exception to the rule (although my other charts showed it correctly))
if you use the zigzags, you have a ready made place to draw your fibs --- while i do use the zigs during trading, until you get used to figuring the redraw, theyre best used to show the LAST trend move, which you then plot your fibs off of !
and for sheer fun, it is amazing when you see the end of a zigzag move that took two days to complete, while the currency was bouncing up and down and acting like a drunken harlot --- but when its finished you immediately see WHY your equity was bouncing around like crazy !
take a look at the attached chart --- the uptrending purple line is the zigzag, on a H1 chart, showing the trend lasted 2.5 DAYS
mp
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trader_dante
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mp6140
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I didn't - someone else "tried" too. lol
Nice to have you back MP
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nice to be back --- thought it was you, but anyway they were right and i was blind !
LOL
must be another one of those senior momements.
mp
grimweasel
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Glad to see u back MP! Can't believe that they'd ban you for telling it how it is??
Bravo!
Grim
Bravo!
Grim
TheBramble
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I thought mp was banned for using too many indicators?
Is he back? Has he recanted yet?
Tie him to a chair and give me a couple of days with nothing but bar charts, volume and Barney the Purple Dinosaur at 110 decibels...that'll cure him.
Even that Bosnian crack (ex-army unwashed socks, shredded and treated in horse-dung) wont help him.
Is he back? Has he recanted yet?
Tie him to a chair and give me a couple of days with nothing but bar charts, volume and Barney the Purple Dinosaur at 110 decibels...that'll cure him.
Even that Bosnian crack (ex-army unwashed socks, shredded and treated in horse-dung) wont help him.
mp6140
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Mp -- Banning Is Such Sweet Sorrow !
I RECANT NOTHING !
I WAS ON THE WESTERN FRONT DURING THE WAR !
I WAS ONLY FOLLOWING ORDERS !
I WAS DELUDED !
I WAS DELUSIONAL !
I WAS DESTRATIFIED !
YOU MAY KILL A MANS BODY, BUT YOU WILL NEVER SILENCE HIS VOICE !
TAR AND FEATHERING IS WORSE !
MY EX WIFE IS WORSE THAN BOTH ! (together)
I RECANT NOTHING !
I WAS ON THE WESTERN FRONT DURING THE WAR !
I WAS ONLY FOLLOWING ORDERS !
I WAS DELUDED !
I WAS DELUSIONAL !
I WAS DESTRATIFIED !
YOU MAY KILL A MANS BODY, BUT YOU WILL NEVER SILENCE HIS VOICE !
TAR AND FEATHERING IS WORSE !
MY EX WIFE IS WORSE THAN BOTH ! (together)
