Lightning McQueen
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for everyones information
It was deleted by the poster himself, not the moderators!
For the record
mp, I have just checked my inbox to confirm that in no way shape or form have you ever sent any pm messages to me! (apart from your replies to mine) and I do keep all of them!
The only posts that I have removed of yours have been off topic and trolling and in one thread only!
If an important post went west it would have been your own fault for getting mixed up in a bun fight, being an ex moderator you should know how this works! 🙄
If you feel members are not allowing you free rein to explore your views and studies or you feel you are being hounded here, there is the bad post button, or you can message a moderator.
I can assure you I'm not part of any perceived "concerted effort" against you, in fact I've pm'd you to assist with this but you ignored it!
You can of course complain to admin about it, they will no doubt have logs of my activities.
Lightning
It was deleted by the poster himself, not the moderators!
For the record
mp, I have just checked my inbox to confirm that in no way shape or form have you ever sent any pm messages to me! (apart from your replies to mine) and I do keep all of them!
The only posts that I have removed of yours have been off topic and trolling and in one thread only!
If an important post went west it would have been your own fault for getting mixed up in a bun fight, being an ex moderator you should know how this works! 🙄
If you feel members are not allowing you free rein to explore your views and studies or you feel you are being hounded here, there is the bad post button, or you can message a moderator.
I can assure you I'm not part of any perceived "concerted effort" against you, in fact I've pm'd you to assist with this but you ignored it!
You can of course complain to admin about it, they will no doubt have logs of my activities.
Lightning
mp6140
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thnx lightning --- you delete quickly but this took 3 days for you to answer
i shall do what needs to be done
and as an ex mod, only if fights got dirty, did i interefere and never about a discussion of revolutionary war tactics or the wearing of red coats in which i explained that brown or camo would have saved a lot of lives, but the mms wear the red coats when they move a price AND theyre highly visible also !
as far as a post going west, how on earth is it my fault for telling the truth for a bloody change ?
we can certainly see where your loyalties lie !
enough --- because someone SAYS something, dont mean its gonna ring true --- try politicians for one !
mp
mp6140
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first paul, going against common wisdom, it really DOESNT MATTER who takes the opposite side of a trade --- thats a question asked constantly, and in forex if dealing with a broker, inevitably its the broker taking the trade (which is why they REVERSE the trades at specific times of day --- so they can then make back what they had to give to keep the market fluid)
but what i was talking about is that the mm's THEMSELVES create the runup, and then they SELL to the dumb money buying at the end of the run. When the mms have sold thier BORROWED shares, they simply turn the trend around and now BUY those shares being sold by the dumb money -- THE SAME SHARES THE MMS SOLD ON THE WAY UP FOR HIGHER PRICES !
when they get to the bottom, the dumb money (either thru stoplosses or plain fear) has now sold ALL their shares to the mms, WHO NOW COVER THEIR SHORTS WITH CHEAPER SHARES, and now we go back up to play the game again.
the reason i dont hold a sl is because of how the above works --- it is possible to set ones tp point incorrectly (ME ????? -- LOL) and get caught in the upside move by error, but if i KNOW WHERE THE PRICE IS HEADING BECAUSE I KNOW THE TREND, then i can just sit back and wait for the price to come back to roost !
LOOK at a chart of GU right now --- even on the H1 its making up and down cycles, but its making LOWER HIGHS AND LOWS, which is a downtrend in most peoples minds !
anyway, thats who buys the shares and sells them also !
mp
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mp6140
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it hasnt really gamma --- all im asking, since im the new kid on the block, is that i be allowed my posts to remain posted and for others to simply LOOK at what i say
after that, peace will reign in the valley love will sweep the land, capping the highest mountains, and the russians and chinese will hold marshmallow roasts with the US
btw --- vas means "slanging ?"
not much to ask
mp
gamma
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mp6140,
I read a lot of your posts and am very impressed with what you have to say. However this post has got me totally mystified I really don't have a foggy about what the hell you and others are going on about.
Lets hope you and others are not judged by this thread by newbies as I believe you are a great contributer to this forum.
I read a lot of your posts and am very impressed with what you have to say. However this post has got me totally mystified I really don't have a foggy about what the hell you and others are going on about.
Lets hope you and others are not judged by this thread by newbies as I believe you are a great contributer to this forum.
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mp6140
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thnx gamma --- got me a little mystified also, but i imagine it will get back to wherever it was pretty quickly
mp
mp6140
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believe its starting to get intertwined with that other "making money on news" thing, whatever is the title !
this one seems to be directed towards those who simply follow the bouncing ball and rush hither and yon, chasing the price, with fast fingers and little thought. What i do tends to require much slower fingers and PLANNING where to put your tp to catch the most action and not chasing the one minute chart (although, in fairness, i do chase the one minute chart when i need a "speed" rush !
mp
gamma
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Glad to see it is coming back to the topic in hand.
When economic news is released and it deviates from the forecast there is generally a reaction to it
how much does the deviation has to be in order to provoke a reaction!
what point is that reaction overdone?
for eg. We have the philadelphia fed index out today at 2.p.m
forecast is -15 previous is -17
if it comes out at -15 theorically we should not expect much change in the dollar,
if it comes out at -10 we have a positive which is good for the dollar and we expect a positive reaction for the dollar. how much of a reaction should we expect for this positive news?
is there a mathematical formula ? Is there is a calculation for every point that deviates from the expected and the effect it will have on the dollar.
I would like to hear peoples views on this !
When economic news is released and it deviates from the forecast there is generally a reaction to it
how much does the deviation has to be in order to provoke a reaction!
what point is that reaction overdone?
for eg. We have the philadelphia fed index out today at 2.p.m
forecast is -15 previous is -17
if it comes out at -15 theorically we should not expect much change in the dollar,
if it comes out at -10 we have a positive which is good for the dollar and we expect a positive reaction for the dollar. how much of a reaction should we expect for this positive news?
is there a mathematical formula ? Is there is a calculation for every point that deviates from the expected and the effect it will have on the dollar.
I would like to hear peoples views on this !
TheBramble
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Deviation from what? The published estimated value is drawn from a number of sources and prepared for the masses – not for the professionals. Most of the big boys have their own research teams not to mention other non-linear (!) sources and contacts to rather more accurately pinpoint likely value.
So the actual figure at news release is not news to everyone. Sure it’ll get a twitch to a strike if it’s a major (not going to define major) hike away from prior public consensus purely because there are large numbers that do have to treat the news as news, but you’ll get indication of significant (again, non-definable) expectation of under/over-run by those in the know by price movement some way before the actual news release. I’m sure you can guess how you might want to interpret any moves of that nature.
When the momentum eases and it starts coming back the other way?
Unless the ‘real’ expectations are either side of that figure.
Unless the real expectations were –9 in which case, not good.
As GJ mentioned above, no. Or if there was, what use would it be? The price would work that out for you instantaneously, trust me - and certainly before you even pull up your spreadsheet. LOL.
Plus, the PFI is not a major news piece anyway.
gamma
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Thanks GammaJammer,
So when the actual deviates quite a lot from the forecast or expected and the price falls or rises it is just irrational exuberance.
arabianights
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Not everything can be described by formulas.
gamma-each 'investor' will, or should have their own prediction based on analyst research, particulalrly the IB's. The reaction to a figure out of line with market expectation will depend on where each house has positioned themselves based on their research to the figure.
For example back when the ECB were thinking about changing rates, just prior to the ECB decision (about 2 hours before) someone came in and lifted 85,000 front month contracts as a hedge.
So if lets say a large hedge fund had a position on for a CPI fig of 2.5 and it came in massively under at 2.0 then as a hedge they would either buy/sell futures or dump their position. The size of their position wouild dictate the market movement so it all depends on positions in the market and research that you will never know about.
Of course you can trade it to an extent given the amount of locals/short term prop houses who trade off expected on reactions....but if one of the biggies gets it wrong and decides to cut and run you could be trying to push treacle up a hill trading against them.
For example back when the ECB were thinking about changing rates, just prior to the ECB decision (about 2 hours before) someone came in and lifted 85,000 front month contracts as a hedge.
So if lets say a large hedge fund had a position on for a CPI fig of 2.5 and it came in massively under at 2.0 then as a hedge they would either buy/sell futures or dump their position. The size of their position wouild dictate the market movement so it all depends on positions in the market and research that you will never know about.
Of course you can trade it to an extent given the amount of locals/short term prop houses who trade off expected on reactions....but if one of the biggies gets it wrong and decides to cut and run you could be trying to push treacle up a hill trading against them.
TheBramble
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You can always get back at them by giving complicated answers to one line questions. Works for me.
TheBramble
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CAD News
Gamma (not GJ), check out CAD. You can see it on both EURCAD and USDCAD, but more pronounced on the latter.
The move up from the value line (EURCAD) at 1.5960 occured for a couple of hours prior to the release. (11:00 GMT).
Figures come in lower from BoC on CPI Core data. PLOP!!!
Lower data is normally considered Bearish which would have weakened CAD and made any pair it was a counter to Bullish. The exact opposite happened! Which is why playing the news and getting the news as quick as possible aren't really always totally connected in any way that will serve you positively a s a trader. You need to be considering what those that really know plan on happening or expect to have happen by looking at what they are doing before the release in the knowledge that they know what most others will be doing on the release. Does that make any sense?
You could have got on board on the first signs after the release, or had a Bloomberg and had your finger on the button, but there was a nice little spike play so that could have torn your trousers off.
Alternatively, you could have watched what was being done for those 2 hours prior and had a better that 50% probability of being right with a fade to that move just prior to news.
Gamma (not GJ), check out CAD. You can see it on both EURCAD and USDCAD, but more pronounced on the latter.
The move up from the value line (EURCAD) at 1.5960 occured for a couple of hours prior to the release. (11:00 GMT).
Figures come in lower from BoC on CPI Core data. PLOP!!!
Lower data is normally considered Bearish which would have weakened CAD and made any pair it was a counter to Bullish. The exact opposite happened! Which is why playing the news and getting the news as quick as possible aren't really always totally connected in any way that will serve you positively a s a trader. You need to be considering what those that really know plan on happening or expect to have happen by looking at what they are doing before the release in the knowledge that they know what most others will be doing on the release. Does that make any sense?
You could have got on board on the first signs after the release, or had a Bloomberg and had your finger on the button, but there was a nice little spike play so that could have torn your trousers off.
Alternatively, you could have watched what was being done for those 2 hours prior and had a better that 50% probability of being right with a fade to that move just prior to news.
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new_trader
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Where do babies come from?
gamma
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You could have got on board on the first signs after the release, or had a Bloomberg and had your finger on the button, but there was a nice little spike play so that could have torn your trousers off.
The main reason I do not trade the news
You can do very well avoiding the news
The main reason I do not trade the news
You can do very well avoiding the news
black bear
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So its True..................
Anything is possible 🙂
Anything is possible 🙂
