Big Ben Strategy - optimised

[tomorton]

how as the last two weeks trading fared

Pretty terrible. Every move is followed by a counter-move, then a counter-counter-move.

If anyone's trading this strategy, make sure your positions are small, you may want to consider tight TP's, trailing stops, with-trend entry orders only, etc. Its a matter of protecting capital through the covid episode. The thing that gets me is that the strategy can only be seen to not work when it doesn't work.

 

[barjon]

Tomo,

I’m not sure what is the logic behind this on forex which is continuous trading or whether you are just taking a convenient slice of time as volume is picking up in London. On the indices the logic is that the market opening skirmishes, mainly caused by overnight orders being processed, need to settle down before any trend (if any) emerges. Sometimes that happens within 5 to 15 minutes, sometimes up to an hour or longer when there is still indecision about any favoured direction. I used to use 1/2 hour tester, 1hour add with a condition attached that the break out must have some momentum (subjective) about it. This was because I got fed up being drawn in by “choppy”, ranging action which went nowhere, or stopped me out. Have a look at Nasdaq 1/2 and 1 hour lately.

best

jon

 

[tomorton]

Apologies all for a late update on last week's performance of this strategy.

It wasn't a bad week in the end, and certainly an improvement on those just previous.

I logged Monday as the only single trade day of the week, running to +2r by 1400hrs. Tuesday and Wednesday were double trade days, each running to -1r by 1400, and Thursday was a double closing at +4r. Friday was a double trade day but net break-even.

The impressive performance from Thursday is a little misleading as the Bank of England made an announcement which pushed the second trade further than it otherwise would have been expected.

My own performance has been moderated by using small positions but also taking profits where available before 1400. I've been using +1r as TP for the first of the two trades triggered and +2r for the second, net result for the week +2.5r. After the shocking run in May I'm happy with that.

 

[tomorton]

Last full week of June, and just a few more days to go for a monthly summary.

The week was not as bad as it could have been on recent experience. 5 trading sessions, net result -1r. I actually managed to get a profit of +1r over the week by using a +1r TP rather than open-ended entry orders.

Things might be slowly improving but we're still in a pandemic crisis and protection of capital is the rule for the time being.

 

[tomorton]

Big Ben summary for June.

OK, we're still in a global pandemic with widespread lockdowns and economic paralysis. So the small net loss for June is very encouraging - for me at least.

Net result -4r out of 35 trades in 22 days. Days with single trades were more common this month, which is perhaps a sign of a market that is regaining confidence in moving firmly away from the open either up or down. Still too many days with double losers - 9 this month, which is above average and really hurts the net gain result.

Still, the long-term performance remains OK. Over the 14 months, the strategy would have returned +90r. This is fine if you use a standard trade size of a fixed percentage of your account capital. There have been 9 winning months and 5 losers. The net average monthly gain is +6r. The 12mth rolling net gain is +95r.

Obviously I'm pressing on with this strategy, but still using a conservative TP and small position sizes while markets are so jittery.

Happy July all!

 

[tomorton]

Weekly Big Ben update.

Another difficult week with too many double trades.
Mon - double trade, +1r result
Tue - double trade, both losers, -2r result
Wed - long trade only, +2r result
Thur - double trade, both losers, -2r result
Fri - double trade, -1r result

We're clearly still in bunker market conditions so I'm continuing to trade small with conservative TP's (could be worth trying OCO orders for these bracket set-ups). There's certainly no early strong commitment from the London open, which is what the strategy depends on for the multi-r wins to bump up the returns. Hey ho.

Have a good weekend.

 

[trendie]

hi tomorton,
Just to clarify, are you trading Mondays now? I think you had toyed with missing them out.
Also, what is the exit time? I thought it was 2pm?
thanks

 

[tomorton]

hi tomorton,
Just to clarify, are you trading Mondays now? I think you had toyed with missing them out.
Also, what is the exit time? I thought it was 2pm?
thanks

Yes, I've brought Mondays back into the fold, until more data available. Exit remains 1400 UK time.

 

[trendie]

hi tomorton,
is this still an active project?
been around a month since last update.

 

[tomorton]

Hi t. I'm not trading it at all right now, just tracking the chart and the general market conditions (which do not favour this one still). July summary coming up soon.

 

[tomorton]

Update for July Big Ben bracket trades performance (sorry for the delay).

To sum up - not as bad as it had been, not as good as it should have been....
Story of my life perhaps...

Net result was -5r, compared to -4r for June, -10r for May, and before that 5 straight months of significant gains. So the effect on this pair from the locked-down or partly locked-down economies is stark. Way too much indecision in this pair intra-day to run this strategy so I continue to watch and wait before I turn it back on again.

Have a good weekend all.