Big Ben on the FTSE100

[tomorton]

Sorry brew, missed your query. I am sort of back to full scale positions now, at 2.5% of account risked. I admit I was previously using 5% but that was just over-confidence. Another change is starting to run half the position to 2 x target, that is for a net gain of 26pts instead of 13 on half the position, while moving the stop-loss to b/e after the first target is reached. I think you led the way on this with cable trades and it has taken me a long time to catch up, but it shopuld be a winning strategy on FTSE.

This week I make it 2-3, making the score 10-10 over the last 4 weeks and 10-10 over the last 20 trades. As per the above, if you're trading at better than 1:1 r:r, you should still in the money.

 

[tomorton]

Weekly summary shows 2-3 again but both winners went on to make double targets, so by my method's accounting +13pts for the week. 20 trade record (of trades that met stop or first target) is 10-10 again, 4-week record is also 10-10

 

[tomorton]

Not a great week, 2-3, keeping the perfomance over the last 20 trades at 10-10. However, both winners made double target, so if trading at 1:2 r:r, a net gain of +13pts this week. Doesn't sound much? - maybe so, but +13pts is +2.5% of account. Not bad per week ver a year, but I hope to do better of course.

 

[wallstreet1928]

Not a great week, 2-3, keeping the perfomance over the last 20 trades at 10-10. However, both winners made double target, so if trading at 1:2 r:r, a net gain of +13pts this week. Doesn't sound much? - maybe so, but +13pts is +2.5% of account. Not bad per week ver a year, but I hope to do better of course.

Don't knock yourself buddy , a gain is a gain. Well done ......

The FTSE had a violent fall on Monday/tuesday/weds, and then it was stable for the remainder of the week.

I managed around + 280 points out of it for the week, but it was hard work.

Keep an eye on the 5500 level ...neckline for H&S, same pattern appears on German Dax

 

[MajorDutch]

Not a great week, 2-3, keeping the perfomance over the last 20 trades at 10-10. However, both winners made double target, so if trading at 1:2 r:r, a net gain of +13pts this week. Doesn't sound much? - maybe so, but +13pts is +2.5% of account. Not bad per week ver a year, but I hope to do better of course.

last 20 trades 10-10 on a 1R basis. jeez sound pretty random results.

 

[tomorton]

I don't disagree Major Dutch but I'm persisting with this dumb strategy for some reasons that are good for me but might not be convincing for everyone -
* it's objective - no TA or FA is required, you just take the 0800-0900 High and Low and enter your orders
* it's quick to set up - I work full-time but I can set my orders on Big Ben in 5 or 10 minutes
* it demands little position management - the entry orders, stops and limit orders are set at 9, then you can forget the position until lunchtime or later if you wish
* it has recognised market behaviour at its core, which is reaction to the opening range: the Big Ben strategy is widely used by professional traders, among them Mark Fisher (see The Logical Trader) uses opening range break-out as the basis for his trading approach.

In theory, this can break even at a 34% win rate at 1:2 r:r, but I don't expect win rate to remain that low over any reasonable time period. We shall see.

 

[bangkoker]

Hello back following the thread again and hoping it continues to work and some consistency returns.

Anyway the 1:2 r/r, maybe I am confused but;

If we assume £1 a pip for simplicity,then

Full stop loss is 13pts i.e £13
---
Partial win is 13 pips on half-trade and then worst case scenario Nil pips on second half, so £6.50+£0 = £6.50
---
Full win is half at 13pts and half at 26pts, so
£6.50+£13=£19.50
---

Is that not then £19.50 reward vs £13 risk (notwithstanding the times when only partial wins of £6.50) or risk 1 vs 1.5 reward?

Would then have to count partial win proportionately on scoring.

I could be wrong, just throwing in my discussion point.

I am tempted to try revised version with second half having a trailing stop from breakeven (hoping to pick up occasional big win to help r/r)

Kind regards,
:clover::idea:

 

[bangkoker]

I may of course be confused on what you meant with what happens once target one is hit.

 

[MajorDutch]

I don't disagree Major Dutch but I'm persisting with this dumb strategy for some reasons that are good for me but might not be convincing for everyone -
* it's objective - no TA or FA is required, you just take the 0800-0900 High and Low and enter your orders
* it's quick to set up - I work full-time but I can set my orders on Big Ben in 5 or 10 minutes
* it demands little position management - the entry orders, stops and limit orders are set at 9, then you can forget the position until lunchtime or later if you wish
* it has recognised market behaviour at its core, which is reaction to the opening range: the Big Ben strategy is widely used by professional traders, among them Mark Fisher (see The Logical Trader) uses opening range break-out as the basis for his trading approach.

In theory, this can break even at a 34% win rate at 1:2 r:r, but I don't expect win rate to remain that low over any reasonable time period. We shall see.

ok so if you put your rules in and back test it for 10 years what are the results? from the outside it does seem as you are trying to trade without putting the effort in, i.e. you are looking for a quick set and forget system. For those people who are working a full time job in addition to trading I would def consider trading trading daily bars. These close 11pm UK time and you can trade these, set your orders and review every night. This is vastly superior imo and you would learn a lot more.

I am speaking from experience having been down the same path as you, I have lost money. Some traders lose $100,000s before they are profitable but there is no need to lose more than a dime, basically it depends on how quickly you can recognise your 'mistakes' and 'thinking errors', what I am trying to say is what you are doing doesnt work and it will continue to cost you money/time moreover it will also pollute your mind to creating the correct mindset/conditions needed to become profitable. only trying to help.

 

[tomorton]

Sorry Bangkoker, and nice to see you again, I should have made clear that I'm assuming the full position is run out to double target, i.e. +26pts. Banking half at the +13pts target and running only the other half to +26 would indeed be net r:r of 1:1.5.

 

[tomorton]

Hi MajorDutch - I have indeed stopped putting much effort into trading as I found that increasing the work did not lead to corresponding increase in reward. Maybe my planning / preparation / TA was not good but actually most of my lost capital is attributable to poor position management. So a system with pre-set exit levels is good for me. When I was not working full-time, I was a poor trader, although I had great ideas and theoretical plans, the best I could ever manage was to track the main indices. Big Ben immediately appealed when I read about it as the core of it is a dumb pre-determined entry point and exit levels, though there's always the hope that these can be refined to minimise losses. This approach won't be my last throw of the dice if it doesn't work but it's good potential and minimal input make it worthwhile to me to carry on a bit longer.

 

[bangkoker]

Sorry Bangkoker, and nice to see you again, I should have made clear that I'm assuming the full position is run out to double target, i.e. +26pts. Banking half at the +13pts target and running only the other half to +26 would indeed be net r:r of 1:1.5.

Thanks,

So you are now setting orders at 9 based on 8-9 range. With 13 pt stop and 26 pt limit, ok. When 13pts up, stoploss moved to breakeven.. I like that idea more.. I still quite like the idea of trailing stop.

I will follow as it is, and also see if any benefit in moving stop to breakeven at 13pts profit.. and then trailing the stop by say 10pts.. with a 50 pt ultimate target :whistling we will see. Good luck

 

[tomorton]

Cheers bangkoker. Hey, what's the worst that can happen?

 

[wallstreet1928]

Don't knock yourself buddy , a gain is a gain. Well done ......

The FTSE had a violent fall on Monday/tuesday/weds, and then it was stable for the remainder of the week.

I managed around + 280 points out of it for the week, but it was hard work.

Keep an eye on the 5500 level ...neckline for H&S, same pattern appears on German Dax

H&S cracked as forecast

I have finished trading for the day with + 80

amazing start to the week

 

[wallstreet1928]

FTSE 100 - now watch the neckline - this level must hold for continued weakness

5480 and 5500 !!

also note the gap must close @ 5410 !!

 

[ordinaryguy76]

what I am trying to say is what you are doing doesnt work and it will continue to cost you money/time moreover it will also pollute your mind to creating the correct mindset/conditions needed to become profitable. only trying to help.

Agreed with the above.
I have to say that I don't understand the raison d'etre of this thread. If you want to see whether BB is a successful strategy, run it over the last 10 years and look at the results. The fact that you achieved minimal profit over the last year might be just a coincidence. In other words - waste of time / effort.

Excuse me if this sounds too harsh. Just my 2p.

 

[tomorton]

You could be right ordinaryguy76. I am doing my testing of this live but I wish someone would do a 10year backtest (though come to think of it, I've never seen a 10 year backtest on anything) but I would like to see it.

 

[tomorton]

Nice week for this system - 3-1 for net gain 65pts, that's account + around 12.5%. Today was a no-trade as price did not hit entry order by 1pm so last performance on last 20 full trades is 10-10. However, it appears quite a reliable rule so far that if price makes net gain 13pts from entry, it will make another 13 within minutes.

 

[tomorton]

Only 1-1 this week but that still represents a gain of 13pts or 2.5% account.

2 trades this week went to 13 pts gain target and I was able to move the stop to b/e: they hit this for net 0 gain. The other trade I think didn't trigger my entry orders by 1pm so I scrubbed them but if I recall correctly it would have been a winner if you had let them stand.

I am only 9-11 on the last 20 completed trades but on the other hand have been in the money at the end of each of the last 4 weeks since implementing the double target of 26pts.

 

[Rugby Trader]

Hi Tom,

What's the latest set of rules?

thanks

RT